Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 0–1 Hearts

Saturday 2 December 2023, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 15 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 5,915

Hearts Dennis 18' (og)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHearts
Goals01
xG1.160.73
Expected Points1.680.99

Kilmarnock 45%Draw 33%Hearts 22%

Most likely score 1–0, 17%. Final score 0–1, 11%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+11%4%5%1%10%8%3%4%3%1%15%17%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTKennedy on for Deas, 70'Dallas on for Watson, 80'Sibbick on for Boyce, 30'Tagawa on for Oda and Devlin on for Grant, 64'Denholm on for Nieuwenhof, 84'Dennis 18' (og)Kilmarnock 1.16Hearts 0.7300.511.50153045607590HTKennedy on for Deas, 70'Dallas on for Watson, 80'Sibbick on for Boyce, 30'Tagawa on for Oda and Devlin on for Grant, 64'Denholm on for Nieuwenhof, 84'Dennis 18' (og)1.160.73KilmarnockHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHearts

1.16 −0.11xG0.73 −0.46
0.66 −0.57xG on target0.07 −1.17
17 +2Shots11 −3
3 −0.8Shots on target1 −3.3
2 +0.2Big chances0 −1.1
30 +6Touches in the opposition box23 −6
52% +4Possession48% −11
383 +38Passes370 −117
68% +3Pass accuracy66% −11
61% +9Field tilt39% −20
36 +1Final-third entries30 −16
16 +4Box entries10 −4
12.0 −3Passes per defensive action14.2 +2
7 +0.1Corners3 −4.8
15 +3Tackles15 +2
8 +1.3Interceptions4 −2.5
8 −9Clearances26 +6
1 −1.9Saves3 +0.7
14 +2Fouls12 +1
2 +1.4Offsides3 +2.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Watson 22', 0.24 xGNdaba 14', 0.13 xGDeas 33', 0.12 xGNdaba 45+4', 0.10 xGVassell 86', 0.10 xGDonnelly 90+6', 0.08 xGFindlay 90+2', 0.06 xGNdaba 45', 0.05 xGDonnelly 68', 0.04 xGArmstrong 81', 0.04 xGArmstrong 90+5', 0.04 xGDonnelly 6', 0.03 xGArmstrong 12', 0.03 xGVassell 90+6', 0.03 xGNdaba 12', 0.02 xGLyons 30', 0.02 xGWatkins 76', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals76%0.88 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.88 xG, 0 goals11%0.13 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals13%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Boyce 23', 0.13 xGSibbick 63', 0.12 xGDenholm 89', 0.12 xGShankland 89', 0.09 xGBoyce 24', 0.06 xGBoyce 15', 0.04 xGShankland 16', 0.04 xGOda 16', 0.04 xGTagawa 89', 0.04 xGCochrane 89', 0.03 xGTagawa 84', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals64%0.47 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.47 xG, 0 goals9%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals27%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHearts

0.73 11 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.60 7 shots, 0 goals
0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.41 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.10 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
18 min (18%) · Kilmarnock 0.22, Hearts 0.12 xG
Hearts ahead
82 min (82%) · Kilmarnock 0.94, Hearts 0.61 xG

Line-ups

1561711128223239DennisMayoDeasFindlayArmstrongWatsonLyonsDonnellyNdabaWatkinsVassellOwn goalYellow cardYellow card70'80'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes2832151186719109ClarkKingsleyKentRowlesOdaNieuwenhofBaningimeGrantCochraneBoyceShanklandYellow card64'84'64'30'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 70' Kennedy for Deas
  • 80' Dallas for Watson

Hearts substitutes

  • 30' Sibbick for Boyce
  • 64' Devlin for Grant
  • 64' Tagawa for Oda
  • 84' Denholm for Nieuwenhof

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Dennis GK900.000.0000.0220
MayoCB900.000.0220.10105
DeasCB700.120.000−0.0117
FindlayCB900.060.0200.1266
ArmstrongRWB900.100.6960.58141
Watson CM800.240.0710.1710
LyonsCM900.020.0610.0944
DonnellyCM900.160.0200.0037
NdabaLWB900.310.0200.2952
WatkinsST900.020.0200.0121
VassellST900.130.031−0.0302
KennedyMF200.000.0910.3181
DallasFW100.000.020−0.1300

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0120
KingsleyCB900.000.0100.0445
KentCB900.000.0000.04213
RowlesCB900.000.0100.0987
OdaRWB640.040.0210.0002
Nieuwenhof CM840.000.0600.1033
BaningimeCM900.000.000−0.0114
GrantCM640.000.011−0.0612
CochraneLWB900.030.1330.1064
BoyceST300.220.0000.0420
ShanklandST900.140.0520.0522
SibbickDF600.120.0200.0563
DevlinMF260.000.0700.0404
TagawaFW260.050.0100.0000
DenholmMF60.120.0210.0201

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Mayo and Armstrong: 4 passesFindlay and Watson: 4 passesNdaba and Watkins: 4 passesWatson and Vassell: 4 passesDeas and Lyons: 5 passesMayo and Lyons: 5 passesNdaba and Vassell: 5 passesWatson and Watkins: 5 passesWatkins and Vassell: 5 passesMayo and Donnelly: 6 passesMayo and Vassell: 6 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 6 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 6 passesWatson and Donnelly: 6 passesLyons and Donnelly: 6 passesDennis and Findlay: 7 passesDennis and Deas: 8 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 9 passesFindlay and Lyons: 9 passesNdaba and Lyons: 9 passesArmstrong and Watson: 10 passesDeas and Mayo: 12 passesDeas and Findlay: 16 passesDennis: 17 completed passesDeas: 21 completed passesMayo: 23 completed passesFindlay: 28 completed passesArmstrong: 16 completed passesNdaba: 21 completed passesWatson: 16 completed passesLyons: 20 completed passesDonnelly: 21 completed passesWatkins: 12 completed passesVassell: 8 completed passes1651711312822239DennisDeasMayoFindlayArmstrongNdabaWatsonLyonsDonnellyWatkinsVassellStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hearts

Clark and Rowles: 3 passesOda and Shankland: 3 passesShankland and Boyce: 3 passesClark and Kent: 4 passesKingsley and Baningime: 4 passesKingsley and Shankland: 4 passesCochrane and Grant: 4 passesNieuwenhof and Shankland: 4 passesRowles and Baningime: 5 passesKent and Baningime: 5 passesOda and Nieuwenhof: 5 passesGrant and Shankland: 7 passesRowles and Cochrane: 9 passesRowles and Grant: 10 passesRowles and Kent: 11 passesClark: 8 completed passesRowles: 21 completed passesKent: 12 completed passesKingsley: 7 completed passesOda: 6 completed passesCochrane: 10 completed passesNieuwenhof: 10 completed passesBaningime: 9 completed passesGrant: 13 completed passesShankland: 9 completed passesBoyce: 2 completed passes2815231119867910ClarkRowlesKentKingsleyOdaCochraneNieuwenhofBaningimeGrantShanklandBoyceStarters until 30' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
NdabaFindlay11
FindlayDeas9
NdabaLyons8
DonnellyMayo8
FindlayLyons7

Hearts

FromToPasses
KentRowles10
RowlesGrant9
RowlesCochrane8
RowlesKent7
CochraneRowles7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

6+1.63−4.011+0.65−2.32−2.610+3.710+2.14−2.46+1.24−1.42−1.92−3.15−0.32−3.52−1.43+0.35+1.97+2.33−0.22−0.32+1.34+2.17+5.11+0.61+0.70−0.90−0.30−0.61−5.42−5.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Hearts

9+3.85−2.416+2.79+1.57−1.03−2.910+6.24−3.64−2.54−2.25−0.54+0.18+2.35−1.62−2.21−3.63−0.52−1.55−0.21−0.51−0.72+1.00−1.24+2.03+2.41−0.10−0.51+0.22+1.00−5.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.030.010.010.040.040.050.030.030.030.060.10−0.03−0.010.020.060.110.420.43LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.020.020.020.010.030.040.010.010.040.01−0.010.060.040.01−0.060.060.070.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackKilmarnock1.16 → 1.16Hearts1.28 → 1.27Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.28 → 1.28Hearts1.28 → 1.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six56%44%−12
11th3%5%+2
Bottom1%2%+1
Hearts
Top six86%93%+7
11th1%<1%−1
Aberdeen
Top six49%52%+3
11th5%5%0
Bottom3%2%−1

From the forecast before the match (2 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHearts
Expected goals1.391.14
Win42%30%
Expected Points1.541.18
Clean sheet32%25%

Kilmarnock 42%Draw 28%Hearts 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawHearts win
Kilmarnock
Top six56%68%52%44%
11th3%2%3%5%
Bottom1%1%2%2%
Hearts
Top six86%80%87%93%
11th1%1%<1%<1%
Aberdeen
Top six49%48%50%52%
11th5%5%6%5%
Bottom3%3%3%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. D0–025 NovRoss County (A)xG 0.65–0.88
  2. L0–111 NovHibernian (A)xG 0.46–0.41
  3. W1–04 NovMotherwell (H)xG 1.95–0.61
  4. L1–21 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.30–1.74
  5. W2–029 OctAberdeen (H)xG 1.85–0.29
  6. W3–121 OctLivingston (H)xG 1.21–1.13

Hearts

  1. W1–025 NovSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.44–0.85
  2. W2–111 NovMotherwell (A)xG 2.08–1.10
  3. W1–01 NovLivingston (H)xG 1.91–0.21
  4. L1–229 OctRangers (A)xG 0.24–4.03
  5. L1–422 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.73–4.01
  6. D2–27 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.25–1.32

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHearts
Position6th4th
Played1413
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠5–⁠56–⁠2–⁠5
Points17 (1.21 per game)20 (1.54 per game)
Expected Points per game1.441.39
Goals15–⁠1513–⁠12
xG per game1.27–⁠1.121.19–⁠1.41
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.22–⁠0.831.57, 1.20–⁠1.26
Away: points, xG per game0.43, 1.33–⁠1.401.50, 1.19–⁠1.60
ManagerDerek McInnes (52)Steven Naismith (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackKilmarnock1.16, 5thHearts1.28, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.28, 5thHearts1.28, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovKilmarnock attack: 1.16Hearts attack: 1.281.281.16HeartsKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovKilmarnock defence: 1.28Hearts defence: 1.281.281.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−11%−29%+1%+1%
Counter-attacks−54%−20%−27%−47%
Set pieces+29%+14%average−1%
Penalties−23%−23%−100%+66%
Headers+44%−21%−37%−14%
Left side+16%−56%−10%−11%
Centre−15%−9%−2%−2%
Right side+1%+12%+7%+3%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side+16%+3%Centre−15%−2%Right side+1%−11%Open play−11%+1%Counter-attacks−54%−47%Set pieces+29%−1%Headers+44%−14%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−10%+12%Centre−2%−9%Right side+7%−56%Open play+1%−29%Counter-attacks−27%−20%Set piecesaverage+14%Headers−37%−21%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHearts

1.27xG1.19
1.12xG against1.41
48%Possession59%
14.6Shots14.4
11.8Shots against12.3
3.8Shots on target4.3
1.8Big chances1.1
24.0Touches in the opposition box28.6
345Passes487
65%Pass accuracy77%
6.9Corners7.8
52%Field tilt59%
35.1Final-third entries46.1
12.1Box entries14.4
14.8Passes per defensive action12.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level491.120.98
Ahead181.181.28
Behind241.661.28

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.290.99
Ahead260.971.83
Behind201.301.80

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.161–3
16–300.220.173–2
31–450.230.202–4
46–600.240.103–3
61–750.210.154–0
76–900.290.342–3

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.192–2
16–300.220.302–2
31–450.070.150–0
46–600.180.361–1
61–750.360.086–3
76–900.290.332–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 14Mayo 13Wright 10Deas 6Findlay 13Armstrong 13Mayo 1Watson 11Watkins 1Armstrong 1Lyons 13Deas 2Donnelly 2Magennis 7Polworth 3Kennedy 1Kennedy 7Ndaba 5Deas 1Watkins 11Kennedy 4Vassell 9Findlay 1Deas 13-5-2 in 7 of 14 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (7), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTClark 13Atkinson 5Sibbick 4Kingsley 3Kent 13Rowles 13Kingsley 7Boyce 3Cochrane 2Devlin 7Grant 2Baningime 1Nieuwenhof 6Lowry 4Haring 4Forrest 5Oda 5Devlin 1Baningime 4Boyce 3Shankland 2Cochrane 4Vargas 4Lowry 3Shankland 11Vargas 1Tagawa 14-2-3-1 in 8 of 13 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-5-2 (4), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
13 August 2023Hearts0–0KilmarnockxG 0.39–0.73
1 April 2023Kilmarnock2–1HeartsxG 2.72–0.68
17 December 2022Hearts3–1KilmarnockxG 2.40–1.09
9 October 2022Kilmarnock2–2HeartsxG 1.68–1.17

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Hearts won 1, and 2 were drawn. Goals 5–6 and xG 1.56–1.16 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong141,230340.290.34
Vassell9789500.380.09
Kennedy121,120010.160.19
Watson111,023120.100.13

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland131,170600.400.17
Boyce6601130.350.21
Lowry8613010.120.27
Cochrane6540010.030.26

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.