Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Ross County 1–3 Hearts

Saturday 3 May 2025, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 35 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 4,181

Ross County Hale 26'

Hearts Shankland 40', 58', Forrest 82'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyHearts
Goals13
xG1.272.19
Expected Points0.782.00

Ross County 18%Draw 23%Hearts 59%

Most likely score 1–2, 12%. Final score 1–3, 8%.

Hearts goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+2%6%8%5%3%3%4%1%2%6%6%3%2%3%2%10%12%8%9%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTNisbet on for Kenneh, Phillips on for White, and Efete on for Brown, 62'Grieves on for Harmon, 74'Robesten on for Samuel, 83'Nieuwenhof on for Spittal, 70'Dhanda on for Vargas, 81'Wilson on for Forrest, 90+4'Hale 26'Shankland 40'Shankland 58'Forrest 82'Hearts 2.19Ross County 1.2701230153045607590HTNisbet on for Kenneh, Phillips on for White, and Efete on for Brown, 62'Grieves on for Harmon, 74'Robesten on for Samuel, 83'Nieuwenhof on for Spittal, 70'Dhanda on for Vargas, 81'Wilson on for Forrest, 90+4'Hale 26'Shankland 40'Shankland 58'Forrest 82'2.191.27Ross CountyHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyHearts

1.27 +0.25xG2.19 +0.84
0.65 −0.31xG on target1.53 +0.22
13 +3.1Shots20 +7.2
4 +0.7Shots on target7 +2.8
3 +1.8Big chances3 +0.7
23 +7Touches in the opposition box38 +13
37% −3Possession63% +9
285 −3Passes484 +42
63% −1Pass accuracy83% +7
34% −3Field tilt66% +8
35 +6Final-third entries60 +19
10 +2.8Box entries23 +11.2
21.6 +6Passes per defensive action13.1 0
4 −0.9Corners13 +6.9
23 +6Tackles21 +3
9 −1.1Interceptions6 −2.8
33 −7Clearances38 +9
4 +1.0Saves2 −0.4
5 −6Fouls4 −7
2 +0.8Offsides1 −0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Kenneh 42', 0.25 xGSamuel 42', 0.24 xGHale 49', 0.23 xGWhite 49', 0.13 xGEfete 90+4', 0.11 xGWright 35', 0.08 xGWright 78', 0.07 xGHarmon 14', 0.03 xGKenneh 23', 0.03 xGGrieves 90+4', 0.03 xGHarmon 64', 0.02 xGKenneh 14', 0.01 xGHale 26', 0.03 xG, goal45%0.57 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.57 xG, 0 goals43%0.54 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.54 xG, 0 goals5%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals8%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.10 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Forrest 39', 0.24 xGShankland 37', 0.22 xGShankland 87', 0.13 xGShankland 36', 0.12 xGGrant 45+1', 0.12 xGHalkett 87', 0.09 xGForrest 23', 0.08 xGVargas 47', 0.06 xGForrest 20', 0.04 xGPenrice 28', 0.04 xGForrest 18', 0.03 xGForrester 11', 0.02 xGShankland 45', 0.02 xGSpittal 61', 0.02 xGForrester 70', 0.02 xGGrant 19', 0.01 xGShankland 31', 0.01 xGForrest 82', 0.62 xG, goalShankland 40', 0.16 xG, goalShankland 58', 0.12 xG, goal25%0.54 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 0.54 xG, 1 goal58%1.26 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.26 xG, 2 goals15%0.33 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyHearts

0.56 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.41 14 shots, 3 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.24 1 shot, 0 goals
0.70 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.54 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
45 min (47%) · Ross County 0.96, Hearts 0.50 xG
Ross County ahead
14 min (15%) · Ross County 0.08, Hearts 0.80 xG
Hearts ahead
36 min (38%) · Ross County 0.23, Hearts 0.89 xG

Line-ups

184121628421525926AmissahWrightTomkinsonHarmonBrownRandallKennehAshworthSamuelHaleWhiteYellow cardGoal74'62'62'83'62'Ross County 3-4-1-2Don Cowie1352429616777179GordonForresterKentHalkettPenriceBaningimeSpittalVargasGrantForrestShanklandYellow cardGoalGoalGoal70'81'90+4'Hearts 4-2-3-1Liam Fox

Ross County substitutes

  • 62' Efete for Brown
  • 62' Nisbet for Kenneh
  • 62' Phillips for White
  • 74' Grieves for Harmon
  • 83' Robesten for Samuel

Hearts substitutes

  • 70' Nieuwenhof for Spittal
  • 81' Dhanda for Vargas
  • 90+4' Wilson for Forrest

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AmissahGK900.000.0100.0544
WrightCB900.150.4010.02213
TomkinsonCB900.000.0000.0434
HarmonCB740.050.0400.1047
BrownRWB620.000.0000.0112
RandallCM900.000.0510.07810
KennehCM6210.300.0210.0212
Ashworth LWB900.000.1410.33510
SamuelAM830.240.021−0.0131
HaleST9010.270.031−0.0110
WhiteST620.130.3810.0002
EfeteDF280.110.0100.0004
NisbetMF280.000.0700.0714
PhillipsFW280.000.010−0.0703
GrievesMF160.030.0810.1233
RobestenFW70.000.0000.0000

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0222
ForresterRB900.040.0200.08513
KentCB900.000.1110.22159
HalkettCB900.090.0200.16918
PenriceLB900.040.0430.1289
BaningimeDM9010.000.0410.0337
SpittalDM700.020.4020.13103
Vargas RW8110.060.3820.2451
GrantAM900.130.1920.0164
ForrestLW9011.000.0720.21102
ShanklandST90210.790.1630.2941
NieuwenhofMF200.000.0000.0001
DhandaMF90.000.0000.0001
WilsonFW00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Amissah and Samuel: 3 passesRandall and Hale: 3 passesWhite and Samuel: 3 passesAmissah and White: 4 passesTomkinson and Ashworth: 4 passesAshworth and Samuel: 4 passesAshworth and Hale: 4 passesBrown and White: 4 passesBrown and Hale: 4 passesKenneh and Hale: 4 passesRandall and White: 4 passesTomkinson and Wright: 5 passesWright and Brown: 5 passesBrown and Randall: 5 passesKenneh and Randall: 5 passesWright and Randall: 6 passesAshworth and Harmon: 6 passesWright and White: 7 passesHarmon and Samuel: 8 passesAmissah: 9 completed passesTomkinson: 7 completed passesWright: 17 completed passesAshworth: 15 completed passesBrown: 12 completed passesHarmon: 8 completed passesKenneh: 6 completed passesRandall: 16 completed passesWhite: 11 completed passesSamuel: 10 completed passesHale: 7 completed passes181241521642826259AmissahTomkinsonWrightAshworthBrownHarmonKennehRandallWhiteSamuelHaleStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Penrice and Baningime: 6 passesPenrice and Grant: 6 passesGordon and Forrester: 7 passesBaningime and Grant: 7 passesGrant and Vargas: 7 passesGrant and Shankland: 7 passesGrant and Forrest: 7 passesKent and Baningime: 8 passesHalkett and Grant: 8 passesSpittal and Shankland: 8 passesGordon and Kent: 9 passesForrester and Baningime: 10 passesHalkett and Baningime: 10 passesBaningime and Spittal: 11 passesGordon and Halkett: 12 passesForrester and Grant: 12 passesGrant and Spittal: 12 passesForrester and Vargas: 13 passesKent and Grant: 14 passesForrester and Kent: 17 passesPenrice and Forrest: 19 passesSpittal and Forrest: 21 passesHalkett and Spittal: 22 passesHalkett and Penrice: 23 passesPenrice and Spittal: 28 passesKent and Halkett: 31 passesGordon: 23 completed passesForrester: 37 completed passesKent: 48 completed passesHalkett: 60 completed passesPenrice: 46 completed passesBaningime: 32 completed passesGrant: 39 completed passesSpittal: 55 completed passesVargas: 12 completed passesShankland: 15 completed passesForrest: 26 completed passes1352429671677917GordonForresterKentHalkettPenriceBaningimeGrantSpittalVargasShanklandForrestStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
TomkinsonWright9
SamuelHarmon6
WrightTomkinson6
EfeteNisbet6
TomkinsonAshworth5

Hearts

FromToPasses
PenriceSpittal18
HalkettKent17
PenriceForrest15
KentHalkett14
HalkettPenrice14

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

3−2.69+1.824+5.24−5.14−2.216+8.08+0.54−3.44−4.03−5.23−2.41−3.31−2.91−3.23−2.22−1.630.03+1.20−3.04+0.45+2.41−0.70−1.22+1.01−1.21+0.20−0.20−0.40−0.11+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 34 matches

Hearts

7+3.15−0.516+3.23−3.77+2.26−0.88+1.711+5.010+2.813+5.54−1.75+0.72−1.46+0.52−2.71−2.40−3.10−3.88+3.61−1.40−1.83+1.64+2.13+0.30−0.80−0.31+0.20−0.40−1.02−5.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 34 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.010.010.020.040.010.01−0.010.010.09−0.010.070.060.040.010.03−0.040.120.070.07−0.02−0.07−0.010.20LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.010.090.020.030.040.020.050.070.050.050.010.040.040.040.050.040.040.14−0.010.010.050.230.180.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackRoss County1.02 → 1.01Hearts1.38 → 1.40Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.61 → 1.64Hearts1.22 → 1.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
11th60%67%+7
Bottom10%15%+5
Hearts
11th1%<1%−1
Dundee FC
11th22%15%−7
Bottom2%1%−1
St. Johnstone
11th10%15%+5
Bottom88%83%−5

From the forecast before the match (3 May 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyHearts
Expected goals1.101.46
Win28%45%
Expected Points1.111.62
Clean sheet23%33%

Ross County 28%Draw 27%Hearts 45%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Hearts goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+8%8%4%1%8%9%4%2%5%7%5%2%2%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 May 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawHearts win
Ross County
11th60%46%63%67%
Bottom10%3%8%15%
Hearts
11th1%2%<1%<1%
Dundee FC
11th22%33%22%15%
Bottom2%2%2%1%
St. Johnstone
11th10%5%9%15%
Bottom88%95%89%83%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L0–226 AprKilmarnock (A)xG 0.27–1.28
  2. L2–312 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.43–2.16
  3. L0–15 AprAberdeen (H)xG 1.19–1.47
  4. L0–130 MarDundee United (H)xG 0.36–1.87
  5. L0–215 MarHearts (A)xG 0.29–1.73
  6. W1–01 MarKilmarnock (H)xG 1.10–2.52

Hearts

  1. L0–126 AprDundee FC (H)xG 1.46–0.71
  2. D0–012 AprMotherwell (A)xG 1.12–0.27
  3. L0–16 AprDundee United (H)xG 1.21–0.82
  4. L0–329 MarCeltic (A)xG 1.02–2.68
  5. W2–015 MarRoss County (H)xG 1.73–0.29
  6. L1–22 MarHibernian (A)xG 0.69–0.61

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyHearts
Position11th8th
Played3434
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠8–⁠1711–⁠7–⁠16
Points35 (1.03 per game)40 (1.18 per game)
Expected Points per game1.091.41
Goals33–⁠5843–⁠45
xG per game1.02–⁠1.641.35–⁠1.32
Home: points, xG per game1.18, 1.33–⁠1.261.41, 1.46–⁠1.17
Away: points, xG per game0.88, 0.71–⁠2.010.94, 1.24–⁠1.47
ManagerDon Cowie (49)Liam Fox (0)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackRoss County1.02, 11thHearts1.38, 4thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.61, 11thHearts1.22, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprRoss County attack: 1.02Hearts attack: 1.381.381.02HeartsRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprRoss County defence: 1.61Hearts defence: 1.221.611.22

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−48%+34%average−11%
Counter-attacks−29%−13%+8%−15%
Set pieces−10%−10%+6%−1%
Penalties+66%+3%−79%+24%
Headers−45%+10%−5%+15%
Left side−21%average+12%−8%
Centre−38%+23%+1%−5%
Right side−43%+25%−3%−17%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdHearts concededLeft side−21%−17%Centre−38%−5%Right side−43%−8%Open play−48%−11%Counter-attacks−29%−15%Set pieces−10%−1%Headers−45%+15%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRoss County concededLeft side+12%+25%Centre+1%+23%Right side−3%averageOpen playaverage+34%Counter-attacks+8%−13%Set pieces+6%−10%Headers−5%+10%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyHearts

1.02xG1.35
1.64xG against1.32
40%Possession54%
9.9Shots12.8
14.9Shots against10.6
3.3Shots on target4.2
1.2Big chances2.3
15.6Touches in the opposition box24.7
288Passes442
64%Pass accuracy76%
4.9Corners6.1
37%Field tilt58%
29.2Final-third entries40.6
7.2Box entries11.8
15.8Passes per defensive action13.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.041.49
Ahead170.981.23
Behind281.012.12

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.301.37
Ahead231.511.12
Behind261.291.42

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.172–4
16–300.170.205–7
31–450.210.325–16
46–600.160.258–6
61–750.130.273–7
76–900.230.4210–18

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.146–5
16–300.170.216–6
31–450.200.255–8
46–600.200.278–8
61–750.190.168–9
76–900.400.2910–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTAmissah 16Laidlaw 15Hamilton 3Wright 26Tomkinson 9Efete 2Lopata 28Allardice 2Campbell 17Leak 14Nightingale 3Brown 17Wright 7Efete 7Randall 29Harmon 6Denholm 5Chilvers 18Allardice 4White 3Nisbet 15Kenneh 11Grieves 4Harmon 13Nisbet 5Campbell 4White 16Phillips 8Samuel 3Hale 24Chilvers 7Nisbet 33-5-2 in 10 of 34 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (10), 3-4-1-2 (9), 3-5-1-1 (7), 3-4-3 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 32Clark 2Forrester 15Oyegoke 11Taylor 6Kent 13Halkett 10Steinwender 7Rowles 20McCart 10Kingsley 2Penrice 28Kingsley 3Grant 1Devlin 19Grant 8Kartum 4Baningime 13Boateng 13Spittal 6Drammeh 9Baningime 6Forrest 5Shankland 14Grant 8Boyce 3Spittal 19Kabangu 6Forrest 3Wilson 13Shankland 11Kabangu 44-2-3-1 in 15 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (15), 4-3-1-2 (6), 4-4-2 (6), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 March 2025Hearts2–0Ross CountyxG 1.73–0.29
29 December 2024Ross County2–2HeartsxG 1.40–1.06
28 September 2024Hearts1–1Ross CountyxG 1.94–0.84
16 March 2024Ross County2–1HeartsxG 1.74–1.27
30 December 2023Hearts2–2Ross CountyxG 1.87–1.54
30 September 2023Ross County0–1HeartsxG 0.40–0.98

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 1, Hearts won 6, and 6 were drawn. Goals 14–24 and xG 1.24–1.63 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Phillips8638210.380.09
Hale242,001900.410.04
White192,019600.310.05
Chilvers251,990350.120.16

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kabangu11975610.500.09
Drammeh11977310.450.07
Vargas121,074420.360.13
Shankland252,252460.280.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.