Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hearts 2–1 St. Johnstone

Wednesday 14 May 2025, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 37 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 18,021

Hearts Douglas 16' (og), Forrest 30'

St. Johnstone Carey 74'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Goals21
xG0.790.94
Expected Points1.181.45

Hearts 27%Draw 37%St. Johnstone 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 2–1, 6%.

St. Johnstone goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%2%7%2%5%6%3%1%1%16%17%13%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTWilson on for Forrester, 64'Nieuwenhof on for Dhanda, 71'Kartum on for Grant, 90+4'Carey on for Griffith and Sprangler on for Curtis, 46'Franczak on for Holt and Ikpeazu on for Kirk, 59'Douglas 16' (og)Forrest 30'Carey 74'St. Johnstone 0.94Hearts 0.7900.250.50.7510153045607590HTWilson on for Forrester, 64'Nieuwenhof on for Dhanda, 71'Kartum on for Grant, 90+4'Carey on for Griffith and Sprangler on for Curtis, 46'Franczak on for Holt and Ikpeazu on for Kirk, 59'Douglas 16' (og)Forrest 30'Carey 74'0.940.79HeartsSt. Johnstone

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsSt. Johnstone

0.79 −0.56xG0.94 −0.10
1.03 −0.32xG on target0.78 −0.23
11 −2Shots9 −2
3 −1.3Shots on target3 −0.1
2 −0.2Big chances1 −0.4
18 −7Touches in the opposition box27 +11
55% +1Possession45% −8
519 +76Passes417 −16
88% +10Pass accuracy88% +11
53% −6Field tilt47% +1
42 +1Final-third entries50 +14
14 +2.0Box entries12 +3.2
17.3 +4Passes per defensive action17.5 +2
8 +1.7Corners7 +2.9
23 +5Tackles19 +4
6 −2.8Interceptions6 −1.8
27 −2Clearances28 −5
2 −0.4Saves2 −0.9
7 −4Fouls9 −2
2 +0.5Offsides3 +1.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Grant 57', 0.15 xGShankland 64', 0.10 xGShankland 75', 0.09 xGWilson 86', 0.06 xGDhanda 19', 0.04 xGDhanda 48', 0.03 xGHalkett 81', 0.03 xGMilne 83', 0.02 xGDhanda 10', 0.01 xGShankland 60', 0.01 xGForrest 31', 0.25 xG, goal19%0.15 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.15 xG, 0 goals15%0.12 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals32%0.25 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.25 xG, 1 goal33%0.26 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

St. Johnstone

McPake 7', 0.32 xGMcPake 42', 0.22 xGIkpeazu 90+5', 0.13 xGWatt 18', 0.05 xGIkpeazu 85', 0.05 xGDuke-McKenna 44', 0.04 xGFranczak 90+3', 0.04 xGMcPake 61', 0.03 xGCarey 74', 0.06 xG, goal14%0.13 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.13 xG, 0 goals44%0.41 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.41 xG, 0 goals28%0.26 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals15%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsSt. Johnstone

0.41 6 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.43 6 shots, 0 goals
0.15 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.32 1 shot, 0 goals
0.23 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.19 2 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
16 min (17%) · Hearts 0.01, St. Johnstone 0.32 xG
Hearts ahead
79 min (83%) · Hearts 0.78, St. Johnstone 0.62 xG

Line-ups

12352418146717920FultonForresterKentHalkettMilneDevlinBaningimeGrantForrestShanklandDhandaYellow cardGoal64'90+4'71'Hearts 4-3-3Liam Fox137430197442162427FisherCurtisBalodisDouglasStevenHoltWattDuke-McKennaGriffithMcPakeKirkOwn goalYellow cardYellow card46'59'46'59'St. Johnstone 4-2-3-1Simo Valakari

Hearts substitutes

  • 64' Wilson for Forrester
  • 71' Nieuwenhof for Dhanda
  • 90+4' Kartum for Grant

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 46' Carey for Griffith · goal 74'
  • 46' Sprangler for Curtis
  • 59' Franczak for Holt
  • 59' Ikpeazu for Kirk

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
FultonGK900.000.0000.0440
ForresterRB640.000.0310.0677
Kent CB900.000.0200.0798
HalkettCB900.030.0200.161013
MilneLB900.020.0700.1158
DevlinCM900.000.1510.1489
BaningimeCM900.000.011−0.0305
GrantCM900.150.092−0.0241
ForrestRW9010.250.0310.0460
ShanklandST9010.200.0310.0242
DhandaLW710.080.2310.0741
WilsonFW260.060.0000.0132
NieuwenhofMF190.000.0100.0000
KartumMF00.000.000––0

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
FisherGK900.000.0000.0760
CurtisRB460.000.0610.0725
BalodisCB900.000.0000.07311
Douglas CB900.000.2030.25109
Steven LB900.000.1000.09510
HoltDM590.000.0200.0744
WattDM900.050.1610.0582
Duke-McKennaRW900.040.0100.0652
GriffithAM460.000.000−0.0402
McPakeLW900.570.0510.1346
KirkST590.000.000−0.0300
CareyMF4410.060.1200.0320
SpranglerMF440.000.0100.0553
FranczakDF310.040.000−0.0101
IkpeazuFW310.180.0010.0111

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Fulton and Halkett: 6 passesForrester and Shankland: 7 passesDevlin and Grant: 7 passesDevlin and Dhanda: 7 passesBaningime and Grant: 7 passesFulton and Kent: 8 passesKent and Dhanda: 8 passesForrester and Forrest: 9 passesKent and Forrest: 9 passesHalkett and Devlin: 9 passesMilne and Grant: 9 passesKent and Baningime: 10 passesDevlin and Forrest: 10 passesKent and Grant: 11 passesHalkett and Baningime: 11 passesKent and Devlin: 12 passesForrest and Shankland: 12 passesForrester and Devlin: 14 passesMilne and Dhanda: 14 passesGrant and Dhanda: 16 passesHalkett and Dhanda: 18 passesForrester and Kent: 20 passesHalkett and Milne: 21 passesHalkett and Grant: 22 passesKent and Halkett: 51 passesFulton: 16 completed passesForrester: 31 completed passesKent: 70 completed passesHalkett: 73 completed passesMilne: 32 completed passesDevlin: 37 completed passesBaningime: 25 completed passesGrant: 37 completed passesForrest: 18 completed passesShankland: 20 completed passesDhanda: 35 completed passes12352418146717920FultonForresterKentHalkettMilneDevlinBaningimeGrantForrestShanklandDhandaStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

St. Johnstone

Douglas and Holt: 3 passesDouglas and McPake: 3 passesWatt and Duke-McKenna: 3 passesCurtis and Watt: 4 passesSteven and Duke-McKenna: 4 passesSteven and McPake: 4 passesHolt and Kirk: 4 passesBalodis and Holt: 5 passesGriffith and Holt: 5 passesFisher and Watt: 6 passesDouglas and Duke-McKenna: 7 passesWatt and McPake: 7 passesDuke-McKenna and McPake: 7 passesFisher and Douglas: 8 passesCurtis and Griffith: 8 passesSteven and Watt: 8 passesCurtis and Balodis: 9 passesWatt and Holt: 9 passesDouglas and Watt: 11 passesFisher and Balodis: 12 passesCurtis and Holt: 14 passesBalodis and Watt: 15 passesDouglas and Steven: 15 passesBalodis and Douglas: 18 passesFisher: 17 completed passesCurtis: 22 completed passesBalodis: 31 completed passesDouglas: 35 completed passesSteven: 21 completed passesGriffith: 6 completed passesWatt: 32 completed passesHolt: 22 completed passesDuke-McKenna: 8 completed passesMcPake: 10 completed passesKirk: 5 completed passes137430196447212427FisherCurtisBalodisDouglasStevenGriffithWattHoltDuke-McKennaMcPakeKirkStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KentHalkett34
HalkettKent18
HalkettGrant16
HalkettDhanda14
ForresterKent13

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
BalodisDouglas18
WattDouglas16
DouglasBalodis16
BalodisWatt13
WattBalodis13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

4+0.111+5.615+2.45−1.43−1.810+3.26−0.23−3.07−0.16−1.43−2.63−1.33−0.34−1.48+1.23−1.64+0.71−1.92−1.65+0.61−1.31−0.72+0.61−0.92−0.70−0.70−0.30−0.81+0.610.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 36 matches

St. Johnstone

3−2.38+0.815−2.69+1.88+2.37−0.38+1.35−2.250.06+1.75+1.85+0.62−3.43+0.23+0.12+0.23+0.33−0.52−0.10−1.52+1.13+1.80−1.70−0.61+0.70−0.40−0.33+2.43−4.64−3.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 36 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.030.020.010.010.040.010.020.020.030.020.020.01−0.010.020.030.01−0.090.070.080.070.080.090.07LessMore

St. Johnstone

0.010.010.030.030.030.030.010.040.050.030.040.040.040.040.010.060.07−0.03−0.010.06−0.020.010.100.090.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.40 → 1.40St. Johnstone1.04 → 1.05Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.20 → 1.21St. Johnstone1.53 → 1.52

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Johnstone
11th18%7%−11
Bottom81%93%+12
Ross County
11th58%66%+8
Bottom16%7%−9
Dundee FC
11th24%26%+2
Bottom3%–−3

From the forecast before the match (14 May 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Expected goals1.860.83
Win61%16%
Expected Points2.070.70
Clean sheet44%16%

Hearts 61%Draw 23%St. Johnstone 16%

Most likely score 1–0, 12%. Both sides score 48%.

St. Johnstone goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%5%2%4%1%4%1%7%6%3%3%3%1%1%1%12%11%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 14 May 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawSt. Johnstone win
St. Johnstone
11th18%7%19%56%
Bottom81%93%81%37%
Ross County
11th58%66%55%31%
Bottom16%7%19%47%
Dundee FC
11th24%26%26%13%
Bottom3%––16%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W3–010 MayMotherwell (H)xG 0.52–0.42
  2. W3–13 MayRoss County (A)xG 2.19–1.27
  3. L0–126 AprDundee FC (H)xG 1.46–0.71
  4. D0–012 AprMotherwell (A)xG 1.12–0.27
  5. L0–16 AprDundee United (H)xG 1.21–0.82
  6. L0–329 MarCeltic (A)xG 1.02–2.68

St. Johnstone

  1. W2–110 MayRoss County (H)xG 1.90–0.65
  2. L0–23 MayKilmarnock (H)xG 1.43–1.39
  3. L2–326 AprMotherwell (A)xG 1.84–2.03
  4. L0–112 AprDundee United (A)xG 0.95–1.17
  5. W1–06 AprCeltic (H)xG 0.52–2.32
  6. L0–329 MarHibernian (A)xG 0.02–2.12

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Position7th12th
Played3636
Won, drawn, lost13–⁠7–⁠169–⁠5–⁠22
Points46 (1.28 per game)32 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game1.431.12
Goals49–⁠4637–⁠64
xG per game1.35–⁠1.301.04–⁠1.50
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 1.40–⁠1.131.11, 1.18–⁠1.42
Away: points, xG per game1.06, 1.29–⁠1.460.67, 0.91–⁠1.57
ManagerLiam Fox (2)Simo Valakari (29)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.40, 4thSt. Johnstone1.04, 11thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.20, 4thSt. Johnstone1.53, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayHearts attack: 1.40St. Johnstone attack: 1.041.401.04St. JohnstoneHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayHearts defence: 1.20St. Johnstone defence: 1.531.531.20

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Johnstone
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+1%−13%−31%+15%
Counter-attacks+6%−21%−55%−5%
Set pieces+4%−1%−14%−1%
Penalties−80%+20%average−20%
Headers−7%+12%−24%+12%
Left side+17%−11%−23%+24%
Centre−2%−7%−32%+8%
Right side−4%−18%−25%−6%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side+17%−6%Centre−2%+8%Right side−4%+24%Open play+1%+15%Counter-attacks+6%−5%Set pieces+4%−1%Headers−7%+12%

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdHearts concededLeft side−23%−18%Centre−32%−7%Right side−25%−11%Open play−31%−13%Counter-attacks−55%−21%Set pieces−14%−1%Headers−24%+12%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Johnstone

1.35xG1.04
1.30xG against1.50
54%Possession53%
12.8Shots10.5
10.6Shots against13.7
4.3Shots on target3.1
2.2Big chances1.4
25.1Touches in the opposition box16.3
443Passes433
77%Pass accuracy77%
6.3Corners4.1
58%Field tilt47%
40.6Final-third entries35.6
12.0Box entries8.8
13.4Passes per defensive action15.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.271.36
Ahead241.491.07
Behind251.351.40

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.101.54
Ahead151.011.54
Behind391.001.44

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.146–5
16–300.170.207–7
31–450.210.266–8
46–600.200.2710–8
61–750.180.159–9
76–900.410.2911–9

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.184–8
16–300.100.272–14
31–450.200.227–11
46–600.230.268–14
61–750.130.177–6
76–900.280.399–11

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 33Clark 2Fulton 1Forrester 17Oyegoke 11Taylor 6Kent 15Halkett 12Steinwender 7Rowles 20McCart 10Kingsley 2Penrice 30Kingsley 3Grant 1Devlin 20Kartum 4Penrice 1Baningime 14Boateng 13Grant 9Drammeh 9Baningime 6Vargas 5Shankland 14Grant 9Baningime 3Spittal 19Kabangu 6Forrest 5Shankland 13Wilson 13Vargas 44-2-3-1 in 16 of 36 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (16), 4-3-1-2 (6), 4-4-2 (6), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

St. Johnstone

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWFisher 13Rae 13Sinclair 10Cameron 12Balodis 11Wright 11Sanders 21Mitchell 6Kucheriavyi 1Mikulic 13Douglas 9Curtis 10Wright 8Carey 5Sprangler 18Carey 4Sidibeh 2Holt 18Smith 11Watt 4Raymond 14Wright 8Douglas 3Clark 9Kirk 6Sprangler 5Sidibeh 15Kirk 12Kimpioka 4Kimpioka 15Kirk 4Clark 43-4-3 in 7 of 36 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (7), 3-5-2 (7), 4-3-1-2 (7), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 February 2025St. Johnstone1–2HeartsxG 2.02–2.18
22 December 2024Hearts2–1St. JohnstonexG 0.75–1.28
2 November 2024St. Johnstone1–2HeartsxG 1.39–1.44
7 February 2024St. Johnstone0–1HeartsxG 0.45–0.70
25 November 2023Hearts1–0St. JohnstonexG 1.44–0.85
5 August 2023St. Johnstone0–2HeartsxG 0.94–1.77

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 10, St. Johnstone won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 23–10 and xG 1.60–1.20 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kabangu11984610.500.09
Drammeh11977310.450.07
Vargas141,208430.330.15
Shankland272,414870.300.15

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Carey151,615330.160.28
Clark181,561620.350.06
Sidibeh201,888320.250.10
Kirk221,851810.270.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.