Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Dundee FC 2–2 Kilmarnock

Saturday 2 March 2024, 15:00 · The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park · Round 29 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Colin Steven · Attendance 5,588

Dundee FC Dennis 11' (og), McCowan 63' (pen)

Kilmarnock Watkins 35', Deas 90+1' · Mayo sent off 60'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Goals22
xG1.531.56
Non-penalty xG0.741.56
Expected Points1.331.36

Dundee FC 34%Draw 31%Kilmarnock 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 2–2, 11%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+2%3%3%1%7%6%2%5%11%11%4%1%2%4%3%2%17%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMayo (Kilmarnock), red card 60'Dodgson on for Cameron, 55'Mellon on for Tiffoney and Bakayoko on for Main, 75'van Veen on for Vassell, 69'Watson on for Donnelly and Balagizi on for Polworth, 74'Mackay-Steven on for Armstrong and Cameron on for Watkins, 86'Dennis 11' (og)McCowan 63' (pen)Watkins 35'Deas 90+1'Kilmarnock 1.56Dundee FC 1.5300.511.520153045607590HTMayo (Kilmarnock), red card 60'Dodgson on for Cameron, 55'Mellon on for Tiffoney and Bakayoko on for Main, 75'van Veen on for Vassell, 69'Watson on for Donnelly and Balagizi on for Polworth, 74'Mackay-Steven on for Armstrong and Cameron on for Watkins, 86'Dennis 11' (og)McCowan 63' (pen)Watkins 35'Deas 90+1'1.561.53Dundee FCKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee FCKilmarnock

1.53 +0.30xG1.56 +0.35
0.74Non-penalty xG1.56
1.64 +0.34xG on target2.96 +1.68
14 +2Shots9 −4
5 +1.2Shots on target7 +3.2
1 −0.8Big chances3 +1.1
21 0Touches in the opposition box20 −2
52% +9Possession48% +2
379 +48Passes331 −2
69% +1Pass accuracy64% 0
54% +16Field tilt46% −4
33 0Final-third entries39 +6
9 −0.1Box entries14 +2.1
14.5 −3Passes per defensive action15.7 +1
4 −1.1Corners6 −0.4
18 +2Tackles8 −6
4 −4.7Interceptions4 −2.9
33 +5Clearances23 +2
5 +2.0Saves4 +1.1
11 +1.3Fouls10 −2.1
0 −1.4Offsides1 −0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee FC

Mellon 85', 0.13 xGMain 3', 0.12 xGMulligan 85', 0.12 xGMulligan 74', 0.07 xGMcCowan 73', 0.06 xGTiffoney 11', 0.05 xGMcCowan 71', 0.04 xGPortales 6', 0.03 xGMulligan 90+9', 0.03 xGBeck 90+9', 0.03 xGMulligan 6', 0.02 xGMulligan 29', 0.02 xGMcCowan 86', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals41%0.30 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals19%0.14 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals38%0.28 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Watkins 50', 0.41 xGWright 53', 0.15 xGDeas 90+1', 0.14 xGArmstrong 45+2', 0.09 xGWatkins 24', 0.06 xGVassell 44', 0.05 xGArmstrong 72', 0.04 xGWatkins 35', 0.34 xG, goalDeas 90+1', 0.29 xG, goal40%0.63 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.63 xG, 2 goals48%0.75 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.75 xG, 0 goals9%0.14 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee FCKilmarnock

0.60 9 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.47 3 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.47 2 shots, 0 goals
0.14 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.62 4 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
49 min (49%) · Dundee FC 1.02, Kilmarnock 0.70 xG
Dundee FC ahead
52 min (51%) · Dundee FC 0.51, Kilmarnock 0.86 xG

Line-ups

2229525171528106387McCrackenPortalesShaughnessyDonnellyMcCowanMulliganSyllaCameronBeckMainTiffoneyYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow card55'75'75'Dundee FC 3-5-2Tony Docherty1456311312210239DennisWrightMayoDeasNdabaArmstrongPolworthDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellOwn goalSent offGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card86'74'74'86'69'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 55' Dodgson for Cameron
  • 75' Bakayoko for Main
  • 75' Mellon for Tiffoney

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 69' van Veen for Vassell · yellow card 90+7'
  • 74' Watson for Donnelly
  • 74' Balagizi for Polworth
  • 86' Mackay-Steven for Armstrong
  • 86' Cameron for Watkins

Players

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrackenGK900.000.0100.0433
PortalesCB900.030.0100.0688
ShaughnessyCB900.000.000−0.0336
Donnelly CB900.000.0400.1368
McCowan RWB9010.910.0500.0964
MulliganCM900.260.102−0.0368
SyllaCM900.000.0100.0227
CameronCM550.000.031−0.0321
Beck LWB900.030.2840.2076
MainST750.120.001−0.0101
TiffoneyST750.050.0100.0442
DodgsonMF350.000.0100.0011
BakayokoFW150.000.0100.0221
MellonFW150.130.0100.0110

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0333
WrightRB9010.150.1710.1848
Mayo CB600.000.0100.0572
Deas CB9010.430.0100.0777
Ndaba LB900.000.0100.0472
ArmstrongRM860.120.1010.2582
PolworthCM740.000.0910.1041
DonnellyCM740.000.0110.0123
KennedyLM900.000.1110.1471
WatkinsST8610.810.0000.0812
Vassell ST690.050.000−0.0101
van Veen FW210.000.0000.0403
WatsonMF160.000.1600.0210
BalagiziFW160.000.0100.0222
Mackay-StevenDF40.000.1510.1810
CameronFW40.000.0000.0112

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee FC

McCracken and Main: 4 passesShaughnessy and Sylla: 4 passesDonnelly and Portales: 4 passesDonnelly and Cameron: 4 passesPortales and Cameron: 4 passesMcCowan and Main: 4 passesBeck and Cameron: 4 passesCameron and Main: 4 passesMulligan and Main: 4 passesMcCracken and Shaughnessy: 5 passesMcCracken and Portales: 5 passesShaughnessy and McCowan: 5 passesDonnelly and Tiffoney: 5 passesPortales and McCowan: 5 passesPortales and Mulligan: 5 passesMcCowan and Cameron: 5 passesCameron and Tiffoney: 7 passesShaughnessy and Donnelly: 8 passesShaughnessy and Portales: 10 passesBeck and Tiffoney: 10 passesMcCracken and Donnelly: 11 passesMcCowan and Mulligan: 11 passesDonnelly and Beck: 12 passesMcCracken: 15 completed passesShaughnessy: 22 completed passesDonnelly: 28 completed passesPortales: 20 completed passesMcCowan: 11 completed passesBeck: 17 completed passesSylla: 13 completed passesCameron: 19 completed passesMulligan: 16 completed passesMain: 9 completed passesTiffoney: 14 completed passes2252529176328101587McCrackenShaughnessyDonnellyPortalesMcCowanBeckSyllaCameronMulliganMainTiffoneyStarters until 55' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Wright: 3 passesDennis and Polworth: 3 passesWright and Donnelly: 3 passesDeas and Ndaba: 3 passesDeas and Kennedy: 3 passesPolworth and Vassell: 3 passesKennedy and Vassell: 3 passesDennis and Armstrong: 4 passesNdaba and Polworth: 4 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 4 passesWright and Mayo: 5 passesDeas and Polworth: 5 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 5 passesDennis and Mayo: 6 passesDennis and Deas: 6 passesMayo and Deas: 6 passesMayo and Armstrong: 6 passesNdaba and Vassell: 6 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 7 passesPolworth and Donnelly: 7 passesMayo and Polworth: 8 passesMayo and Donnelly: 8 passesWright and Armstrong: 9 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 13 passesDennis: 14 completed passesWright: 17 completed passesMayo: 24 completed passesDeas: 14 completed passesNdaba: 13 completed passesArmstrong: 17 completed passesPolworth: 28 completed passesDonnelly: 14 completed passesKennedy: 11 completed passesWatkins: 3 completed passesVassell: 6 completed passes1456311312210239DennisWrightMayoDeasNdabaArmstrongPolworthDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
DonnellyBeck12
ShaughnessyPortales11
MulliganMcCowan10
BeckTiffoney8
DonnellyMcCracken7

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WrightArmstrong9
ArmstrongPolworth8
NdabaKennedy7
PolworthDonnelly6
PolworthMayo6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee FC

9+4.05−3.121+2.08+0.74−3.24−2.810+3.09+1.04−1.75+0.33−0.64−0.78+1.85+0.31−2.04+1.90−3.12−1.120.02+0.41−0.13+2.00−2.60−0.81+0.60−0.42+1.41+0.26−4.51−4.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Kilmarnock

1−3.39+1.810+2.03−1.47−0.23−4.26−0.24−1.610+3.58+2.15+0.45+1.32−2.31−4.31−2.63+0.43−0.44−0.45+2.02+0.21+0.31−0.63+0.51+0.10−0.30−0.80−0.21+0.67−5.30−5.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee FC

0.010.030.010.010.010.020.020.02−0.010.050.030.070.030.02−0.010.07−0.01−0.040.030.07−0.02−0.060.020.100.07LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.030.010.020.010.010.010.040.030.050.050.030.080.020.030.070.03−0.010.020.050.11−0.010.270.28LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackDundee FC1.08 → 1.09Kilmarnock1.19 → 1.20Defence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.56 → 1.56Kilmarnock1.21 → 1.22

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee FC
Top six35%31%−4
11th1%1%0
Kilmarnock
Top six>99%>99%0
Hibernian
Top six44%45%+1
Motherwell
Top six12%13%+1
11th3%3%0

From the forecast before the match (2 March 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Expected goals1.201.30
Win33%38%
Expected Points1.291.43
Clean sheet27%30%

Dundee FC 33%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+9%7%3%1%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 March 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee FC winDrawKilmarnock win
Dundee FC
Top six35%52%31%23%
11th1%<1%1%2%
Kilmarnock
Top six>99%99%>99%>99%
Hibernian
Top six44%35%45%51%
Motherwell
Top six12%9%13%14%
11th3%3%3%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee FC

  1. L1–728 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.45–2.59
  2. L1–224 FebHibernian (A)xG 0.35–1.94
  3. W2–017 FebRoss County (H)xG 0.94–0.73
  4. W2–111 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 3.19–1.37
  5. L0–27 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.26–1.63
  6. L2–33 FebHearts (H)xG 1.69–1.76

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–228 FebRangers (H)xG 1.36–0.73
  2. W2–024 FebAberdeen (H)xG 1.94–0.48
  3. D1–117 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.95–1.49
  4. W1–07 FebLivingston (H)xG 0.75–0.72
  5. D1–13 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.24–1.14
  6. D2–227 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.69–1.58

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Position6th4th
Played2728
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠8–⁠1110–⁠10–⁠8
Points32 (1.19 per game)40 (1.43 per game)
Expected Points per game1.171.40
Goals37–⁠4832–⁠29
xG per game1.23–⁠1.711.21–⁠1.11
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 1.42–⁠1.721.87, 1.30–⁠0.91
Away: points, xG per game0.93, 1.08–⁠1.700.92, 1.10–⁠1.34
ManagerTony Docherty (27)Derek McInnes (66)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackDundee FC1.08, 9thKilmarnock1.19, 5thDefence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.56, 11thKilmarnock1.21, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebDundee FC attack: 1.08Kilmarnock attack: 1.191.191.08KilmarnockDundee FCDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebDundee FC defence: 1.56Kilmarnock defence: 1.211.561.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee FCKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−21%+23%−19%−22%
Counter-attacks−32%+36%−17%+23%
Set pieces+43%+3%+20%−6%
Penalties−43%+89%−27%−45%
Headers+16%+48%+27%−18%
Left side−5%+29%−4%−30%
Centre+3%+14%−13%−12%
Right side−19%+17%−3%−2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−5%−2%Centre+3%−12%Right side−19%−30%Open play−21%−22%Counter-attacks−32%+23%Set pieces+43%−6%Headers+16%−18%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee FC concededLeft side−4%+17%Centre−13%+14%Right side−3%+29%Open play−19%+23%Counter-attacks−17%+36%Set pieces+20%+3%Headers+27%+48%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee FCKilmarnock

1.23xG1.21
1.71xG against1.11
43%Possession46%
11.5Shots13.1
15.4Shots against12.1
3.8Shots on target3.8
1.8Big chances1.9
20.8Touches in the opposition box22.2
331Passes333
68%Pass accuracy64%
5.1Corners6.4
38%Field tilt50%
32.8Final-third entries32.9
9.1Box entries11.9
17.9Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.201.50
Ahead201.131.86
Behind261.361.97

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.071.01
Ahead201.261.23
Behind231.461.22

xG by period

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.181–5
16–300.120.266–7
31–450.210.346–7
46–600.240.245–6
61–750.230.256–7
76–900.300.4513–16

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.134–3
16–300.210.146–3
31–450.180.243–10
46–600.230.086–5
61–750.160.215–3
76–900.280.318–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee FC

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTCarson 25Sharp 1McCracken 1Portales 11Ashcroft 7McGhee 6Shaughnessy 27Lamie 12Donnelly 8Dodgson 4McGhee 17McCowan 3Robertson 2Cameron 18Robertson 4Mulligan 3Boateng 21Sylla 9Beck 2McCowan 21Tiffoney 1Beck 21Tiffoney 2McCowan 1Bakayoko 25Robinson 8Main 2Rudden 9Tiffoney 5Beck 13-5-2 in 10 of 27 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (10), 5-3-2 (7), 4-3-3 (4), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 27O'Hara 1Mayo 27Wright 18Deas 12Findlay 27Armstrong 27Mayo 1Watson 20Davies 2Watkins 1Polworth 11Ndaba 5Deas 3Lyons 20Donnelly 9Magennis 7Kennedy 16Ndaba 9Donnelly 1Watkins 23Kennedy 4Vassell 23Ndaba 2Findlay 13-5-2 in 12 of 28 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (12), 4-4-2 (8), 4-1-4-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 December 2023Kilmarnock2–2Dundee FCxG 0.69–0.53
23 September 2023Dundee FC2–2KilmarnockxG 1.49–3.56

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee FC won 0, Kilmarnock won 0, and 2 were drawn. Goals 4–4 and xG 1.01–2.12 per game.

Key players

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Robinson10899300.480.02
Rudden9821210.330.04
Bakayoko252,111530.260.04
McCowan262,274640.150.14

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong282,358590.270.29
Kennedy211,971330.180.18
Vassell231,925510.270.07
Watson201,868420.150.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.