Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 2–2 Dundee FC

Saturday 30 December 2023, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 21 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 5,780

Kilmarnock Wright 85', McKenzie 90+3'

Dundee FC McCowan 35', Shaughnessy 90+5'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockDundee FC
Goals22
xG0.690.53
Expected Points1.431.13

Kilmarnock 33%Draw 44%Dundee FC 23%

Most likely score 0–0, 30%. Final score 2–2, 1%.

Dundee FC goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+15%4%20%14%3%6%4%1%1%30%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTMcKenzie on for Lyons, 43'Polworth on for Deas, 46'Donnelly on for Watson and Mackay-Steven on for Armstrong, 77'Ndaba on for Wright, 89'Boateng on for Howley, 68'Reilly on for Tiffoney, 78'Kerr on for Mulligan, 82'Wright 85'McKenzie 90+3'McCowan 35'Shaughnessy 90+5'Kilmarnock 0.69Dundee FC 0.5300.250.50.750153045607590HTMcKenzie on for Lyons, 43'Polworth on for Deas, 46'Donnelly on for Watson and Mackay-Steven on for Armstrong, 77'Ndaba on for Wright, 89'Boateng on for Howley, 68'Reilly on for Tiffoney, 78'Kerr on for Mulligan, 82'Wright 85'McKenzie 90+3'McCowan 35'Shaughnessy 90+5'0.690.53KilmarnockDundee FC

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockDundee FC

0.69 −0.55xG0.53 −0.85
1.91 +0.76xG on target0.37 −1.10
11 −3Shots8 −4
4 +0.2Shots on target2 −2.0
2 +0.2Big chances0 −2.1
29 +6Touches in the opposition box25 +4
58% +11Possession42% −1
390 +56Passes292 −39
70% +7Pass accuracy64% −4
55% +4Field tilt45% +6
51 +18Final-third entries43 +10
18 +6.0Box entries11 +1.9
12.0 −2Passes per defensive action11.7 −6
7 +0.5Corners8 +3.1
10 −3Tackles19 +3
3 −4.0Interceptions11 +1.2
35 +16Clearances36 +10
0 −3.0Saves2 −0.9
12 −0.2Fouls10 +0.4
0 −1.2Offsides1 −0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Vassell 76', 0.07 xGFindlay 71', 0.06 xGFindlay 60', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 67', 0.04 xGWatkins 90+1', 0.04 xGWright 57', 0.03 xGVassell 4', 0.02 xGKennedy 59', 0.02 xGKennedy 75', 0.02 xGMcKenzie 90+3', 0.21 xG, goalWright 85', 0.14 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals71%0.48 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.48 xG, 2 goals10%0.07 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals19%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Dundee FC

Beck 87', 0.16 xGMcGhee 17', 0.07 xGMcCowan 48', 0.06 xGSylla 40', 0.04 xGShaughnessy 44', 0.03 xGDonnelly 14', 0.02 xGShaughnessy 90+5', 0.10 xG, goalMcCowan 35', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals45%0.24 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.24 xG, 1 goal42%0.22 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals13%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockDundee FC

0.38 6 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.21 2 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.06 1 shot, 0 goals
0.31 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.26 5 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
44 min (46%) · Kilmarnock 0.27, Dundee FC 0.30 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
2 min (2%) · Kilmarnock 0.00, Dundee FC 0.10 xG
Dundee FC ahead
50 min (52%) · Kilmarnock 0.42, Dundee FC 0.13 xG

Line-ups

1541761181210923DennisMayoWrightFindlayDeasArmstrongLyonsWatsonKennedyVassellWatkinsGoalYellow card89'46'77'43'77'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes31652521152817379CarsonMcGheeShaughnessyDonnellyHowleyMulliganSyllaMcCowanBeckTiffoneyBakayokoGoalGoal68'82'78'Dundee FC 3-5-2Tony Docherty

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 43' McKenzie for Lyons · goal 90+3'
  • 46' Polworth for Deas
  • 77' Mackay-Steven for Armstrong
  • 77' Donnelly for Watson · yellow card 83'
  • 89' Ndaba for Wright

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 68' Boateng for Howley · yellow card 87'
  • 78' Reilly for Tiffoney
  • 82' Kerr for Mulligan

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0222
MayoRB900.000.0100.101010
WrightCB8910.170.0100.04113
FindlayCB900.100.0000.0656
DeasLB460.000.0100.0453
ArmstrongRM770.000.2220.26101
LyonsCM430.000.0000.0332
WatsonCM770.000.0110.0012
Kennedy LM900.040.0710.25112
VassellST900.090.021−0.0433
WatkinsST9010.040.2020.1952
McKenzieMF4710.250.011−0.0420
PolworthMF440.000.0600.1780
Mackay-StevenDF130.000.0910.0721
Donnelly MF130.000.0000.0121
NdabaDF10.000.0000.0000

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0110
McGheeCB900.070.0700.06611
ShaughnessyCB9010.130.0100.01112
DonnellyCB900.020.0000.03110
HowleyRWB680.000.0400.0972
MulliganCM820.000.0110.0425
SyllaCM900.040.0000.01112
McCowanCM9010.110.0500.0967
BeckLWB9010.160.2040.1242
TiffoneyST780.000.0300.0422
BakayokoST900.000.0200.0024
Boateng MF220.000.0000.0123
ReillyMF120.000.000−0.0100
KerrDF80.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Wright: 3 passesArmstrong and Watson: 3 passesKennedy and Vassell: 3 passesMayo and Lyons: 4 passesWright and Lyons: 4 passesFindlay and Lyons: 4 passesFindlay and Kennedy: 4 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 4 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 4 passesFindlay and Deas: 5 passesDeas and Watkins: 5 passesKennedy and Watkins: 6 passesDennis and Findlay: 7 passesMayo and Wright: 8 passesMayo and Armstrong: 8 passesDeas and Kennedy: 8 passesWright and Findlay: 11 passesDennis: 8 completed passesMayo: 18 completed passesWright: 18 completed passesFindlay: 21 completed passesDeas: 14 completed passesArmstrong: 10 completed passesWatson: 2 completed passesLyons: 10 completed passesKennedy: 11 completed passesWatkins: 6 completed passesVassell: 5 completed passes1541761112810239DennisMayoWrightFindlayDeasArmstrongWatsonLyonsKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 43' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Dundee FC

Carson and Shaughnessy: 3 passesMcGhee and Sylla: 3 passesMcGhee and Mulligan: 3 passesMcGhee and Bakayoko: 3 passesMcGhee and Tiffoney: 3 passesDonnelly and McCowan: 3 passesHowley and Bakayoko: 3 passesMulligan and Tiffoney: 3 passesBakayoko and Tiffoney: 3 passesShaughnessy and Donnelly: 4 passesShaughnessy and Howley: 4 passesMcGhee and McCowan: 4 passesDonnelly and Bakayoko: 4 passesHowley and Mulligan: 4 passesBeck and Sylla: 4 passesSylla and McCowan: 4 passesMcCowan and Mulligan: 4 passesMcCowan and Tiffoney: 4 passesBeck and Bakayoko: 5 passesDonnelly and Beck: 7 passesBeck and McCowan: 7 passesShaughnessy and McCowan: 8 passesShaughnessy and McGhee: 10 passesHowley and Tiffoney: 10 passesMcGhee and Howley: 12 passesMcCowan and Bakayoko: 15 passesCarson: 2 completed passesShaughnessy: 20 completed passesMcGhee: 23 completed passesDonnelly: 15 completed passesHowley: 18 completed passesBeck: 17 completed passesSylla: 13 completed passesMcCowan: 29 completed passesMulligan: 14 completed passesBakayoko: 15 completed passesTiffoney: 9 completed passes31562521328171597CarsonShaughnessyMcGheeDonnellyHowleyBeckSyllaMcCowanMulliganBakayokoTiffoneyStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PolworthArmstrong9
FindlayWright7
WatkinsKennedy7
FindlayKennedy7
KennedyVassell7

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
BakayokoMcCowan10
McCowanBakayoko9
HowleyMcGhee7
TiffoneyHowley6
ShaughnessyMcGhee6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

4−0.618+11.314+2.310+2.54−0.411+4.35−2.33−2.95−1.06−0.75−0.63−2.32−1.80−4.43−2.27+1.84+0.44+1.21−2.51−3.80−3.11−1.10−0.81−0.83+0.90−0.80−0.32+1.10−0.21+0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Dundee FC

4−1.512+3.727+8.58−2.35−3.05−2.77+0.23−2.56−0.92−6.33−3.46+1.25+1.18+3.58+2.35−0.16+2.93+0.94+0.54+0.93+0.52+0.23+2.22+0.81−2.11+0.20−0.50−0.52+1.52+1.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.020.010.020.020.030.040.040.110.040.040.040.060.03−0.010.020.140.070.070.090.20LessMore

Dundee FC

0.010.010.020.020.030.020.010.030.030.020.010.030.010.070.070.08LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackKilmarnock1.16 → 1.16Dundee FC1.10 → 1.11Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.21 → 1.22Dundee FC1.43 → 1.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six92%90%−2
11th<1%<1%0
Dundee FC
Top six38%40%+2
11th5%5%0
Bottom2%2%0
Hibernian
Top six58%58%0

From the forecast before the match (30 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockDundee FC
Expected goals1.580.95
Win51%22%
Expected Points1.810.93
Clean sheet39%21%

Kilmarnock 51%Draw 26%Dundee FC 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 49%.

Dundee FC goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%7%4%1%6%2%4%1%5%5%2%2%2%12%13%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawDundee FC win
Kilmarnock
Top six92%96%90%84%
11th<1%<1%<1%1%
Dundee FC
Top six38%30%40%55%
11th5%6%5%2%
Bottom2%3%2%1%
Hibernian
Top six58%59%58%54%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W1–027 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.81–0.46
  2. W2–123 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.37–1.37
  3. D0–016 DecLivingston (A)xG 0.88–1.14
  4. W2–110 DecCeltic (H)xG 2.06–1.68
  5. W1–06 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.64–1.14
  6. L0–12 DecHearts (H)xG 1.16–0.73

Dundee FC

  1. L0–326 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.13–2.79
  2. W1–016 DecRoss County (A)xG 2.43–0.90
  3. L1–39 DecRangers (A)xG 1.11–2.08
  4. D3–32 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.59–0.89
  5. L1–225 NovHibernian (H)xG 1.42–0.84
  6. W4–011 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.62–0.51

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockDundee FC
Position4th7th
Played2017
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠6–⁠65–⁠6–⁠6
Points30 (1.50 per game)21 (1.24 per game)
Expected Points per game1.421.35
Goals21–⁠1820–⁠26
xG per game1.24–⁠1.111.38–⁠1.74
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.31–⁠0.961.33, 1.24–⁠1.87
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.16–⁠1.261.12, 1.53–⁠1.60
ManagerDerek McInnes (58)Tony Docherty (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackKilmarnock1.16, 5thDundee FC1.10, 7thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.21, 3rdDundee FC1.43, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock attack: 1.16Dundee FC attack: 1.101.161.10Dundee FCKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock defence: 1.21Dundee FC defence: 1.431.431.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockDundee FC
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−12%−26%−14%+34%
Counter-attacks−30%−32%average+58%
Set pieces+21%+4%+58%+10%
Penalties−42%−13%−32%+36%
Headers+37%−19%+8%+55%
Left side+5%−39%+10%+38%
Centre−18%−13%+20%+24%
Right side+15%−6%−24%+30%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee FC concededLeft side+5%+30%Centre−18%+24%Right side+15%+38%Open play−12%+34%Counter-attacks−30%+58%Set pieces+21%+10%Headers+37%+55%

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+10%−6%Centre+20%−13%Right side−24%−39%Open play−14%−26%Counter-attacksaverage−32%Set pieces+58%+4%Headers+8%−19%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockDundee FC

1.24xG1.38
1.11xG against1.74
47%Possession43%
13.9Shots11.9
11.9Shots against15.4
3.8Shots on target4.0
1.8Big chances2.1
23.2Touches in the opposition box21.0
334Passes331
63%Pass accuracy68%
6.5Corners4.9
50%Field tilt39%
33.0Final-third entries32.9
12.0Box entries9.1
14.5Passes per defensive action17.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.101.05
Ahead201.111.22
Behind221.641.14

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level491.311.56
Ahead151.481.83
Behind261.452.04

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.152–3
16–300.250.165–3
31–450.230.172–5
46–600.210.073–3
61–750.160.215–1
76–900.290.354–3

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.171–3
16–300.130.343–4
31–450.260.243–3
46–600.290.293–4
61–750.260.253–4
76–900.320.457–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 20Mayo 19Deas 12Wright 10Findlay 19Armstrong 19Mayo 1Watson 16Watkins 1Armstrong 1Magennis 7Donnelly 5Deas 2Lyons 19Polworth 6Kennedy 1Ndaba 9Kennedy 9Deas 1Watkins 16Kennedy 4Vassell 15Findlay 1Deas 13-5-2 in 12 of 20 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (12), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Dundee FC

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTCarson 16McCracken 1Portales 10McGhee 4Kerr 2Shaughnessy 17Lamie 11Donnelly 4Ashcroft 2McGhee 9McCowan 2Kerr 2Cameron 11Robertson 2Mulligan 2Boateng 16Sylla 3Beck 2McCowan 13Beck 13Tiffoney 2McCowan 1Bakayoko 16Robinson 5Rudden 9Beck 1McCowan 13-5-2 in 9 of 17 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (9), 4-1-4-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 September 2023Dundee FC2–2KilmarnockxG 1.49–3.56

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Dundee FC won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 2–2 and xG 3.56–1.49 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong201,764370.250.33
Kennedy141,310130.170.20
Vassell151,329500.310.06
Watson161,463320.110.10

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Robinson7633200.520.03
Bakayoko161,392420.370.05
Rudden9821210.330.04
McCowan171,521220.120.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.