Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Celtic 3–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 7 October 2023, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 8 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 58,295

Celtic Hatate 22', Palma 33', Taylor 82'

Kilmarnock Watson 72'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticKilmarnock
Goals31
xG2.751.54
Expected Points2.190.59

Celtic 66%Draw 22%Kilmarnock 12%

Most likely score 2–2, 12%. Final score 3–1, 11%.

Kilmarnock goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+1%5%5%2%3%4%3%4%2%6%6%2%2%2%11%12%11%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTPhillips on for Carter-Vickers and Forrest on for Palma, 73'Holm on for O'Riley, 85'Oh on for Furuhashi, 88'Yang on for Maeda, 89'Polworth on for Deas, 46'Cameron on for Watson, Murray on for Vassell, Brown on for Armstrong, and Dallas on for Kennedy, 89'Hatate 22'Palma 33'Taylor 82'Watson 72'Celtic 2.75Kilmarnock 1.5401230153045607590HTPhillips on for Carter-Vickers and Forrest on for Palma, 73'Holm on for O'Riley, 85'Oh on for Furuhashi, 88'Yang on for Maeda, 89'Polworth on for Deas, 46'Cameron on for Watson, Murray on for Vassell, Brown on for Armstrong, and Dallas on for Kennedy, 89'Hatate 22'Palma 33'Taylor 82'Watson 72'2.751.54CelticKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticKilmarnock

2.75 +0.25xG1.54 +0.28
3.24 +0.34xG on target0.32 −0.85
27 +10Shots6 −8
12 +4.6Shots on target1 −2.4
3 −1.4Big chances3 +1.6
42 −2Touches in the opposition box17 −8
77% +11Possession23% −26
759 +113Passes215 −146
88% +4Pass accuracy54% −12
88% +16Field tilt12% −41
96 +33Final-third entries11 −27
22 0Box entries9 −5
10.2 −1Passes per defensive action55.2 +42
11 +3.4Corners1 −5.4
13 −3Tackles13 0
4 −3.1Interceptions8 +0.6
17 −1Clearances25 +9
0 −2.0Saves9 +6.1
9 −0.3Fouls7 −6.3
2 +1.0Offsides2 +1.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Forrest 84', 0.77 xGHatate 52', 0.14 xGHatate 33', 0.10 xGMaeda 84', 0.09 xGTaylor 18', 0.08 xGHatate 70', 0.08 xGFuruhashi 78', 0.08 xGPalma 53', 0.07 xGPalma 18', 0.06 xGMaeda 71', 0.06 xGScales 9', 0.04 xGScales 15', 0.03 xGHatate 21', 0.03 xGTaylor 30', 0.03 xGO'Riley 48', 0.03 xGO'Riley 51', 0.03 xGForrest 79', 0.03 xGHatate 6', 0.02 xGJohnston 8', 0.02 xGJohnston 12', 0.02 xGFuruhashi 12', 0.02 xGJohnston 27', 0.01 xGPalma 28', 0.01 xGMaeda 82', 0.01 xGTaylor 82', 0.68 xG, goalHatate 22', 0.16 xG, goalPalma 33', 0.04 xG, goal29%0.81 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.81 xG, 1 goal51%1.41 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.41 xG, 1 goal4%0.10 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals13%0.35 xGEdge of the box: 9 shots, 0.35 xG, 1 goal3%0.08 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Vassell 87', 0.64 xGWright 76', 0.23 xGVassell 69', 0.10 xGVassell 10', 0.03 xGArmstrong 18', 0.03 xGWatson 72', 0.52 xG, goal42%0.64 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.64 xG, 0 goals55%0.84 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.84 xG, 1 goal4%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticKilmarnock

0.98 18 shots, 2 goalsOpen play1.31 5 shots, 1 goal
0.86 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.91 7 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.23 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
22 min (24%) · Celtic 0.48, Kilmarnock 0.06 xG
Celtic ahead
68 min (76%) · Celtic 2.27, Kilmarnock 1.48 xG

Line-ups

1220533342413887HartJohnstonCarter-VickersScalesTaylorO'RileyMcGregorHatateMaedaFuruhashiPalmaYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoalGoal73'85'89'88'73'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers117465111283109DennisFindlayWrightDeasMayoArmstrongWatsonLyonsNdabaKennedyVassellYellow cardGoalYellow card46'89'89'89'89'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes

Celtic substitutes

  • 73' Phillips for Carter-Vickers
  • 73' Forrest for Palma
  • 85' Holm for O'Riley
  • 88' Oh for Furuhashi
  • 89' Yang for Maeda

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Polworth for Deas · 1 assist
  • 89' Murray for Vassell
  • 89' Brown for Armstrong
  • 89' Dallas for Kennedy
  • 89' Cameron for Watson

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0201
JohnstonRB900.050.0920.1894
Carter-VickersCB730.000.0400.17117
Scales CB900.070.0720.34188
Taylor LB9010.790.1030.0591
O'RileyCM850.060.387−0.0422
McGregorCM9010.000.0630.0354
HatateCM90110.540.1530.30101
MaedaRW8910.160.0610.0842
FuruhashiST880.100.020−0.0200
PalmaLW7310.180.3920.2080
PhillipsDF170.000.0000.0451
ForrestFW170.800.0100.0000
HolmMF50.000.0100.0111
OhFW20.000.0000.0101
YangFW10.000.0200.0421

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0330
FindlayCB900.000.0000.02310
WrightCB900.230.0010.02011
DeasCB460.000.0810.1822
Mayo RWB900.000.0500.2038
ArmstrongCM890.030.1410.0761
WatsonCM8910.520.1010.1313
LyonsCM900.000.0100.0119
NdabaLWB900.000.0800.0725
KennedyST890.000.0700.0122
Vassell ST890.770.0100.0011
PolworthMF4410.000.0210.0313
MurrayMF10.000.000––0
BrownFW10.000.0000.0000
DallasFW10.000.0000.0000
CameronFW10.000.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Carter-Vickers and Hatate: 8 passesO'Riley and Maeda: 8 passesHart and Scales: 9 passesCarter-Vickers and O'Riley: 10 passesCarter-Vickers and Taylor: 11 passesTaylor and Hatate: 11 passesTaylor and McGregor: 11 passesO'Riley and Hatate: 11 passesO'Riley and McGregor: 11 passesMcGregor and Palma: 12 passesJohnston and Hatate: 13 passesJohnston and McGregor: 13 passesHatate and McGregor: 14 passesHatate and Palma: 16 passesHart and Carter-Vickers: 17 passesScales and Palma: 17 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 18 passesScales and McGregor: 21 passesScales and Hatate: 24 passesJohnston and O'Riley: 25 passesTaylor and Palma: 26 passesJohnston and Carter-Vickers: 35 passesScales and Taylor: 44 passesScales and Carter-Vickers: 64 passesHart: 21 completed passesJohnston: 52 completed passesScales: 105 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 88 completed passesTaylor: 60 completed passesO'Riley: 40 completed passesHatate: 48 completed passesMcGregor: 54 completed passesMaeda: 13 completed passesFuruhashi: 5 completed passesPalma: 37 completed passes1252033341423887HartJohnstonScalesCarter-VickersTaylorO'RileyHatateMcGregorMaedaFuruhashiPalmaStarters until 73' · lines join pairs with 8+ passes

Kilmarnock

Wright and Armstrong: 3 passesDeas and Vassell: 3 passesNdaba and Armstrong: 3 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 3 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 3 passesDennis and Mayo: 4 passesDennis and Vassell: 4 passesDeas and Kennedy: 4 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 4 passesMayo and Armstrong: 5 passesDennis: 6 completed passesWright: 3 completed passesFindlay: 1 completed passesDeas: 5 completed passesMayo: 8 completed passesNdaba: 5 completed passesArmstrong: 10 completed passesWatson: 6 completed passesLyons: 6 completed passesKennedy: 9 completed passesVassell: 2 completed passes141765311128109DennisWrightFindlayDeasMayoNdabaArmstrongWatsonLyonsKennedyVassellStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
Carter-VickersScales36
TaylorScales29
ScalesCarter-Vickers28
ScalesTaylor28
Carter-VickersJohnston23

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DennisVassell5
VassellArmstrong4
MayoDennis4
NdabaKennedy4
KennedyDeas3

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

0−4.13−0.112+1.02−3.95−3.02−2.92−2.49+2.680.03−2.13+0.16+3.013+4.18+3.92−1.02−0.65+2.73−4.67+3.73+0.61−1.43+0.94−0.92+1.10−0.10−0.60−0.62+1.13−5.91−5.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Kilmarnock

6+2.315+8.719+8.112+5.710+6.07+0.912+3.711+4.09+1.711+3.34−0.14−3.40−5.11−5.32−3.61−3.91−2.62−1.61−2.90−4.61−1.42−0.40−0.90−2.11−1.60−0.40−0.41+0.10−0.62+1.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.020.040.060.020.020.060.070.060.030.070.060.100.010.070.120.080.050.09−0.05−0.060.030.160.170.14LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.010.010.010.010.020.010.040.04−0.020.020.070.05−0.010.230.23LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackCeltic2.30 → 2.30Kilmarnock1.15 → 1.15Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.75 → 0.76Kilmarnock1.34 → 1.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title84%86%+2
Kilmarnock
Top six37%35%−2
11th7%8%+1
Bottom4%4%0
Rangers
Title16%14%−2
St. Mirren
Top six67%67%0
11th2%2%0
Bottom1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (7 October 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticKilmarnock
Expected goals2.840.60
Win83%5%
Expected Points2.610.27
Clean sheet55%6%

Celtic 83%Draw 12%Kilmarnock 5%

Most likely score 2–0, 13%. Both sides score 43%.

Kilmarnock goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+3%2%9%6%2%8%2%7%2%9%5%2%5%3%4%2%13%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 7 October 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawKilmarnock win
Celtic
Title84%86%79%76%
Kilmarnock
Top six37%35%43%59%
11th7%8%5%3%
Bottom4%4%2%1%
Rangers
Title16%14%21%24%
St. Mirren
Top six67%67%68%59%
11th2%2%3%3%
Bottom1%1%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W2–130 SepMotherwell (A)xG 1.68–0.82
  2. W3–023 SepLivingston (A)xG 2.61–0.94
  3. W3–016 SepDundee FC (H)xG 3.17–0.81
  4. W1–03 SepRangers (A)xG 0.95–1.80
  5. D0–026 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.02–0.28
  6. W3–113 AugAberdeen (A)xG 2.94–1.76

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–130 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.73–0.79
  2. D2–223 SepDundee FC (A)xG 3.56–1.49
  3. D2–216 SepHibernian (H)xG 0.83–0.92
  4. L0–12 SepRoss County (H)xG 1.42–0.72
  5. L1–226 AugMotherwell (A)xG 1.05–2.15
  6. D0–013 AugHearts (A)xG 0.73–0.39

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticKilmarnock
Position1st8th
Played77
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠1–⁠01–⁠4–⁠2
Points19 (2.71 per game)7 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game2.231.42
Goals16–⁠47–⁠8
xG per game2.50–⁠1.081.26–⁠1.12
Home: points, xG per game2.33, 3.11–⁠0.741.25, 0.88–⁠0.95
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 2.04–⁠1.330.67, 1.78–⁠1.34
ManagerBrendan Rodgers (7)Derek McInnes (45)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackCeltic2.30, 1stKilmarnock1.15, 7thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.75, 1stKilmarnock1.34, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepCeltic attack: 2.30Kilmarnock attack: 1.152.301.15KilmarnockCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepCeltic defence: 0.75Kilmarnock defence: 1.341.340.75

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+109%+8%−24%−26%
Counter-attacks+120%−76%−9%−100%
Set pieces−4%−42%+7%+25%
Penalties+200%−100%+100%average
Headers−23%−42%+25%−45%
Left side+35%+2%+10%−65%
Centre+85%−17%−33%−1%
Right side+105%−14%−2%+1%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+35%+1%Centre+85%−1%Right side+105%−65%Open play+109%−26%Counter-attacks+120%−100%Set pieces−4%+25%Headers−23%−45%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side+10%−14%Centre−33%−17%Right side−2%+2%Open play−24%+8%Counter-attacks−9%−76%Set pieces+7%−42%Headers+25%−42%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticKilmarnock

2.50xG1.26
1.08xG against1.12
66%Possession49%
16.9Shots14.4
9.9Shots against10.9
7.4Shots on target3.4
4.4Big chances1.4
44.0Touches in the opposition box24.7
646Passes361
83%Pass accuracy66%
7.6Corners6.4
72%Field tilt53%
62.7Final-third entries38.4
21.7Box entries14.4
11.3Passes per defensive action13.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level462.370.77
Ahead442.651.39
Behind0––

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level591.081.05
Ahead130.731.87
Behind172.300.77

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.330.182–0
16–300.480.173–1
31–450.310.182–0
46–600.660.102–1
61–750.320.243–0
76–900.410.214–2

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.151–1
16–300.310.182–1
31–450.230.170–1
46–600.140.110–3
61–750.150.152–0
76–900.290.372–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 6Bain 1Johnston 5Ralston 2Lagerbielke 4Carter-Vickers 2Phillips 1Scales 5Nawrocki 2Taylor 7O'Riley 7McGregor 7Turnbull 5Hatate 2Abada 3Yang 2Maeda 1Furuhashi 7Maeda 6Yang 14-3-3 in every start

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 7Mayo 7Deas 5Wright 3Findlay 6Armstrong 7Watson 4Watkins 1Lyons 7Deas 1Magennis 7Kennedy 1Ndaba 3Kennedy 3Davies 1Vassell 4Kennedy 3Watkins 5Findlay 1Cameron 13-5-2 in 3 of 7 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (3), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
16 April 2023Kilmarnock1–4CelticxG 1.73–2.56
7 January 2023Celtic2–0KilmarnockxG 3.48–0.08
14 August 2022Kilmarnock0–5CelticxG 0.69–3.34
2 February 2021Kilmarnock0–4CelticxG 1.87–2.13
13 December 2020Celtic2–0KilmarnockxG 1.83–0.79
9 August 2020Kilmarnock1–1CelticxG 1.06–0.74

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 5, Kilmarnock won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 18–2 and xG 2.35–1.04 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
O'Riley7607520.580.25
Furuhashi7547420.510.23
Maeda7587110.380.07
Taylor7599010.020.24

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong7613220.460.45
Kennedy7629000.220.21
Lyons7576200.150.07
Deas6496000.050.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.