Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Celtic 1–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 17 February 2024, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 26 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 58,887

Celtic Furuhashi 32'

Kilmarnock Watson 90+2'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticKilmarnock
Goals11
xG1.490.95
Expected Points1.770.95

Celtic 49%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 15%. Final score 1–1, 15%.

Kilmarnock goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+7%8%3%6%2%10%6%1%4%5%2%1%1%12%15%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTYang on for Palma, 46'Bernabei on for Taylor, 61'Bernardo on for Idah, 67'Kühn on for Maeda, 68'Oh on for Furuhashi, 80'Balagizi on for Vassell, 68'Stewart on for Armstrong and van Veen on for Watkins, 73'Watson on for Polworth and Murray on for Kennedy, 85'Furuhashi 32'Watson 90+2'Celtic 1.49Kilmarnock 0.9500.511.520153045607590HTYang on for Palma, 46'Bernabei on for Taylor, 61'Bernardo on for Idah, 67'Kühn on for Maeda, 68'Oh on for Furuhashi, 80'Balagizi on for Vassell, 68'Stewart on for Armstrong and van Veen on for Watkins, 73'Watson on for Polworth and Murray on for Kennedy, 85'Furuhashi 32'Watson 90+2'1.490.95CelticKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticKilmarnock

1.49 −1.22xG0.95 −0.24
1.34 −1.31xG on target1.02 −0.16
15 −6Shots13 0
5 −2.5Shots on target6 +2.4
1 −3.0Big chances2 +0.3
35 −11Touches in the opposition box22 0
71% +1Possession29% −18
618 −44Passes236 −103
85% −1Pass accuracy57% −8
78% −3Field tilt22% −29
91 +15Final-third entries18 −16
22 −3Box entries12 0
8.4 −2Passes per defensive action21.8 +8
8 −2.0Corners4 −2.5
11 −5Tackles27 +14
3 −2.2Interceptions10 +3.2
11 −4Clearances23 +2
5 +3.4Saves3 0.0
12 +2Fouls8 −4
1 −1.0Offsides2 +0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

O'Riley 45+2', 0.24 xGBernardo 81', 0.22 xGMcGregor 40', 0.19 xGO'Riley 11', 0.10 xGPalma 11', 0.09 xGO'Riley 45+2', 0.09 xGO'Riley 22', 0.08 xGO'Riley 53', 0.07 xGO'Riley 56', 0.04 xGPalma 45+2', 0.03 xGKühn 79', 0.03 xGPalma 8', 0.02 xGScales 25', 0.02 xGFuruhashi 39', 0.02 xGFuruhashi 32', 0.26 xG, goal17%0.26 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.26 xG, 1 goal61%0.92 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.92 xG, 0 goals5%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals16%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Armstrong 72', 0.25 xGMurray 90+6', 0.14 xGWatkins 4', 0.09 xGDonnelly 66', 0.06 xGWatson 87', 0.05 xGDonnelly 37', 0.03 xGDonnelly 63', 0.03 xGFindlay 66', 0.03 xGWatkins 72', 0.03 xGKennedy 66', 0.02 xGWright 84', 0.02 xGArmstrong 3', 0.01 xGWatson 90+2', 0.19 xG, goal5%0.05 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals87%0.83 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.83 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals7%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticKilmarnock

1.48 14 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.61 6 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.14 1 shot, 0 goals
0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.19 6 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
36 min (37%) · Celtic 0.56, Kilmarnock 0.24 xG
Celtic ahead
62 min (63%) · Celtic 0.94, Kilmarnock 0.71 xG

Line-ups

1565753383342789HartRalstonWelshScalesTaylorMaedaO'RileyMcGregorPalmaFuruhashiIdahGoal61'68'46'80'67'Celtic 4-4-1-1Brendan Rodgers15417311312210239DennisMayoWrightFindlayNdabaArmstrongPolworthDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellYellow cardYellow cardYellow card73'85'85'73'68'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Yang for Palma
  • 61' Bernabei for Taylor
  • 67' Bernardo for Idah
  • 68' Kühn for Maeda
  • 80' Oh for Furuhashi

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 68' Balagizi for Vassell
  • 73' Stewart for Armstrong
  • 73' van Veen for Watkins
  • 85' Watson for Polworth · goal 90+2'
  • 85' Murray for Kennedy · 1 assist

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0431
RalstonRB9010.000.2330.2483
WelshCB900.000.1000.33313
ScalesCB900.020.1300.16115
TaylorLB610.000.0410.0650
MaedaRM680.000.0400.0010
O'RileyCM900.630.1900.0546
McGregorCM900.190.1330.1253
PalmaLM460.140.0600.2250
FuruhashiAM8010.270.0930.1030
IdahST670.000.020−0.0301
YangFW440.000.1100.1341
BernabeiDF290.000.0400.1122
BernardoMF230.220.000−0.0101
KühnFW220.030.3910.2870
OhFW100.000.0000.0110

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0230
Mayo RB900.000.0500.10513
WrightCB900.020.0200.0116
FindlayCB900.030.0000.08611
NdabaLB900.000.0810.10511
Armstrong RM730.260.0920.2047
PolworthCM850.000.0310.0400
Donnelly CM900.120.010−0.01111
KennedyLM850.020.2020.3654
WatkinsST730.120.0000.0001
VassellST680.000.021−0.0401
BalagiziFW220.000.020−0.0402
StewartMF170.000.0310.0631
van VeenFW170.000.000−0.0100
WatsonMF510.240.0000.0000
MurrayMF510.140.1310.1420

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Ralston and Maeda: 5 passesO'Riley and Palma: 5 passesRalston and Furuhashi: 6 passesMcGregor and Palma: 6 passesWelsh and Idah: 7 passesTaylor and Furuhashi: 7 passesMcGregor and Idah: 7 passesRalston and McGregor: 8 passesScales and Palma: 8 passesWelsh and O'Riley: 8 passesTaylor and McGregor: 8 passesO'Riley and McGregor: 8 passesHart and Scales: 9 passesWelsh and Maeda: 10 passesWelsh and McGregor: 11 passesScales and McGregor: 13 passesHart and Welsh: 18 passesTaylor and Palma: 18 passesWelsh and Taylor: 19 passesScales and Taylor: 22 passesRalston and Welsh: 25 passesScales and Welsh: 25 passesHart: 21 completed passesRalston: 38 completed passesScales: 45 completed passesWelsh: 66 completed passesTaylor: 49 completed passesMaeda: 10 completed passesO'Riley: 18 completed passesMcGregor: 34 completed passesPalma: 15 completed passesFuruhashi: 8 completed passesIdah: 11 completed passes1565573383342789HartRalstonScalesWelshTaylorMaedaO'RileyMcGregorPalmaFuruhashiIdahStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Findlay: 3 passesMayo and Kennedy: 3 passesMayo and Watkins: 3 passesFindlay and Donnelly: 3 passesNdaba and Vassell: 3 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 3 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 3 passesPolworth and Donnelly: 3 passesKennedy and Watkins: 3 passesKennedy and Vassell: 3 passesMayo and Armstrong: 4 passesWright and Findlay: 4 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 4 passesNdaba and Watkins: 4 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 4 passesPolworth and Kennedy: 4 passesMayo and Donnelly: 5 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 5 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 6 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 7 passesNdaba and Polworth: 8 passesDennis: 3 completed passesMayo: 13 completed passesWright: 4 completed passesFindlay: 13 completed passesNdaba: 14 completed passesArmstrong: 11 completed passesPolworth: 19 completed passesDonnelly: 9 completed passesKennedy: 9 completed passesWatkins: 7 completed passesVassell: 8 completed passes15417311312210239DennisMayoWrightFindlayNdabaArmstrongPolworthDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesWelsh25
RalstonMcGregor18
RalstonWelsh18
WelshRalston17
HartWelsh17

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
NdabaPolworth6
PolworthKennedy5
NdabaKennedy5
ArmstrongDonnelly5
KennedyArmstrong4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

2−0.83−1.15−0.65+0.46+0.54−0.55+1.23−3.39+1.65+0.41−2.84+0.56−1.45+0.91−2.13+0.62−1.12−3.44+0.54+1.04+2.11−2.07+3.21+0.11+0.40−0.60−0.82+0.74−5.21−5.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Kilmarnock

7+2.614+7.017+4.812+4.46+1.611+4.08+0.618+12.25−0.64−2.52−3.92−2.82−1.72−2.24−1.64−1.23−0.71−1.81−2.45+0.62−1.00−1.90−0.81−0.76+3.60−1.00−0.30−0.91+0.80−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.010.010.030.020.010.030.030.080.080.040.040.050.150.100.150.010.090.080.110.030.14−0.160.150.040.250.20LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.020.020.030.070.020.010.010.030.010.010.040.040.010.140.090.02−0.04−0.050.050.48LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackCeltic2.30 → 2.25Kilmarnock1.14 → 1.13Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.73 → 0.75Kilmarnock1.26 → 1.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title46%35%−11
Kilmarnock
Top six95%97%+2
Rangers
Title54%65%+11

From the forecast before the match (17 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticKilmarnock
Expected goals2.670.59
Win81%6%
Expected Points2.560.30
Clean sheet55%7%

Celtic 81%Draw 13%Kilmarnock 6%

Most likely score 2–0, 14%. Both sides score 42%.

Kilmarnock goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+4%2%6%2%8%2%7%2%8%5%1%4%3%3%2%10%14%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawKilmarnock win
Celtic
Title46%49%35%30%
Kilmarnock
Top six95%95%97%99%
Rangers
Title54%51%65%70%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W2–17 FebHibernian (A)xG 2.07–1.00
  2. D1–13 FebAberdeen (A)xG 2.04–1.22
  3. W1–027 JanRoss County (H)xG 2.02–1.08
  4. W3–02 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.62–0.18
  5. W2–130 DecRangers (H)xG 0.64–0.97
  6. W3–026 DecDundee FC (A)xG 2.79–0.13

Kilmarnock

  1. W1–07 FebLivingston (H)xG 0.75–0.72
  2. D1–13 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.24–1.14
  3. D2–227 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.69–1.58
  4. L1–32 JanRangers (A)xG 1.55–2.27
  5. D2–230 DecDundee FC (H)xG 0.69–0.53
  6. W1–027 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.81–0.46

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticKilmarnock
Position1st4th
Played2525
Won, drawn, lost19–⁠4–⁠29–⁠9–⁠7
Points61 (2.44 per game)36 (1.44 per game)
Expected Points per game2.361.36
Goals57–⁠1728–⁠26
xG per game2.71–⁠0.871.19–⁠1.14
Home: points, xG per game2.42, 2.99–⁠0.741.92, 1.25–⁠0.96
Away: points, xG per game2.46, 2.45–⁠0.990.92, 1.12–⁠1.33
ManagerBrendan Rodgers (25)Derek McInnes (63)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackCeltic2.30, 1stKilmarnock1.14, 6thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.73, 2ndKilmarnock1.26, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebCeltic attack: 2.30Kilmarnock attack: 1.142.301.14KilmarnockCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebCeltic defence: 0.73Kilmarnock defence: 1.261.260.73

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+114%−27%−19%−23%
Counter-attacks+117%−23%−23%+35%
Set pieces+40%−31%+21%−3%
Penalties+145%−100%−39%−39%
Headers+36%−24%+26%−17%
Left side+99%−17%−4%−28%
Centre+80%−24%−14%−10%
Right side+117%−47%−4%−4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+99%−4%Centre+80%−10%Right side+117%−28%Open play+114%−23%Counter-attacks+117%+35%Set pieces+40%−3%Headers+36%−17%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side−4%−47%Centre−14%−24%Right side−4%−17%Open play−19%−27%Counter-attacks−23%−23%Set pieces+21%−31%Headers+26%−24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticKilmarnock

2.71xG1.19
0.87xG against1.14
70%Possession47%
20.8Shots12.9
7.6Shots against12.0
7.5Shots on target3.6
4.0Big chances1.7
45.8Touches in the opposition box21.8
662Passes339
85%Pass accuracy65%
10.0Corners6.5
81%Field tilt51%
75.7Final-third entries33.9
24.6Box entries11.7
10.0Passes per defensive action14.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level402.790.75
Ahead452.731.04
Behind51.870.28

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level491.011.00
Ahead191.221.37
Behind221.561.24

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.400.109–2
16–300.480.078–2
31–450.280.186–1
46–600.490.1110–3
61–750.300.195–4
76–900.760.2219–5

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.133–3
16–300.240.146–3
31–450.190.232–9
46–600.230.085–3
61–750.140.235–3
76–900.290.337–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 24Bain 1Johnston 21Ralston 4Carter-Vickers 14Nawrocki 4Lagerbielke 4Scales 23Taylor 22Bernabei 3O'Riley 24McGregor 25Iwata 2Bernardo 9Turnbull 9Hatate 4Maeda 9Abada 5Yang 5Furuhashi 21Oh 3Idah 1Palma 16Maeda 7Yang 24-3-3 in every start

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 24O'Hara 1Mayo 24Wright 15Deas 12Findlay 24Armstro… 24ArmstrongMayo 1Watson 20Davies 2Watkins 1Polworth 8Donnelly 6Deas 3Lyons 20Magennis 7McKenzie 3Kennedy 13Ndaba 9Davies 1Watkins 20Kennedy 4Vassell 20Ndaba 2Findlay 13-5-2 in 12 of 25 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (12), 4-4-2 (5), 4-1-4-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
10 December 2023Kilmarnock2–1CelticxG 2.06–1.68
7 October 2023Celtic3–1KilmarnockxG 2.75–1.54
16 April 2023Kilmarnock1–4CelticxG 1.73–2.56
7 January 2023Celtic2–0KilmarnockxG 3.48–0.08
14 August 2022Kilmarnock0–5CelticxG 0.69–3.34
2 February 2021Kilmarnock0–4CelticxG 1.87–2.13

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 6, Kilmarnock won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 22–5 and xG 2.31–1.23 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Turnbull9676700.710.39
Oh3600500.950.05
Palma161,260590.430.45
Furuhashi211,714830.590.11

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong252,116480.240.29
Kennedy181,706230.180.18
Vassell201,710500.290.06
Watson201,838320.110.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.