Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 2–1 Celtic

Sunday 10 December 2023, 12:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 17 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee David Munro · Attendance 7,706

Kilmarnock Phillips 75' (og), Kennedy 87'

Celtic O'Riley 33'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Kilmarnock	Celtic
Goals	2	1
xG	2.06	1.68
Expected Points	1.63	1.12

Kilmarnock 46%Draw 25%Celtic 29%

Most likely score 2–1, 10%. Final score 2–1, 10%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockCeltic

2.06 +0.83xG1.68 −1.30

1.87 +0.69xG on target1.88 −1.25

13 −1Shots16 −5

6 +2.4Shots on target7 −1.2

4 +2.2Big chances2 −2.4

26 +2Touches in the opposition box34 −12

32% −16Possession68% −2

253 −88Passes550 −126

59% −6Pass accuracy80% −6

34% −17Field tilt66% −14

28 −7Final-third entries41 −35

8 −4Box entries19 −5

18.8 +5Passes per defensive action10.2 0

5 −1.8Corners9 −0.2

12 −1Tackles24 +9

11 +4.2Interceptions6 +0.9

18 0Clearances20 +5

6 +3.2Saves4 +2.3

14 +1.7Fouls12 +2.9

5 +4.3Offsides4 +2.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Kilmarnock

Celtic

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockCeltic

1.04 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.17 11 shots, 1 goal

0.40 1 shot, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.07 1 shot, 0 goals

0.62 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.44 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–00–11–12–1

Level: 45 min (45%) · Kilmarnock 0.99, Celtic 1.20 xG
Kilmarnock ahead: 14 min (14%) · Kilmarnock 0.00, Celtic 0.13 xG
Celtic ahead: 42 min (42%) · Kilmarnock 1.07, Celtic 0.35 xG

Line-ups

Kilmarnock substitutes

66' Watkins for Donnelly
90+4' McKenzie for Vassell
90+11' Mackay-Steven for Armstrong
90+11' Murray for Kennedy

Celtic substitutes

70' Yang for M. Johnston
76' Furuhashi for Iwata
84' Forrest for Palma

Players

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Dennis	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.04	5	3
Mayo	RB	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.04	6	5
Deas	CB	90			0.09	0.12	0	0.06	6	8
Findlay	CB	90			0.18	0.07	1	0.03	5	6
Ndaba	LB	90			0.54	0.00	0	0.03	3	6
Donnelly	DM	66			0.00	0.00	0	−0.02	0	5
Lyons	DM	90			0.22	0.01	0	0.04	3	4
Armstrong	RW	90		1	0.52	0.31	4	0.45	10	2
Polworth	AM	90			0.00	0.15	1	0.00	3	3
Kennedy	LW	90	1		0.40	0.25	2	0.17	4	3
Vassell	ST	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.03	2	0
Watkins	FW	24			0.11	0.01	0	−0.04	1	1
McKenzie	MF	0			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	0
Mackay-Steven	DF	0			0.00	0.00	0	–	–	0
Murray	MF	0			0.00	0.00	0	–	–	0

Celtic

Player	Pos	Min	G	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Hart	GK	90		0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	0
A. Johnston	RB	90		0.00	0.07	0	0.05	7	9
Phillips	CB	90		0.25	0.02	0	0.12	14	8
Scales	CB	90		0.00	0.12	0	0.25	15	11
Taylor	LB	90		0.04	0.06	0	0.07	6	10
O'Riley	CM	90	1	0.63	0.03	1	0.02	3	1
Iwata	CM	76		0.00	0.02	1	−0.02	1	1
McGregor	CM	90		0.14	0.07	1	0.05	10	4
M. Johnston	RW	70		0.06	0.08	3	0.06	7	3
Oh	ST	90		0.27	0.02	1	−0.01	2	2
Palma	LW	84		0.12	0.25	3	−0.01	1	2
Yang	FW	20		0.03	0.00	0	0.06	3	0
Furuhashi	FW	14		0.13	0.00	0	0.00	0	1
Forrest	FW	6		0.00	0.02	1	0.03	1	3

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Celtic

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Dennis	Vassell	7
Mayo	Polworth	7
Armstrong	Watkins	6
Mayo	Armstrong	5
Kennedy	Armstrong	5

Celtic

From	To	Passes
Phillips	A. Johnston	19
Taylor	Scales	17
Scales	Phillips	16
Hart	Phillips	15
Scales	McGregor	15

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 16 matches

Celtic

Against its average of 16 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

Celtic

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Kilmarnock
Top six	58%	77%	+19
11th	3%	1%	−2
Bottom	1%	<1%	−1
Celtic
Title	79%	68%	−11
Rangers
Title	21%	32%	+11
Aberdeen
Top six	55%	49%	−6
11th	3%	4%	+1
Bottom	2%	1%	−1

From the forecast before the match (10 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Kilmarnock	Celtic
Expected goals	0.77	2.14
Win	12%	69%
Expected Points	0.55	2.26
Clean sheet	12%	46%

Kilmarnock 12%Draw 20%Celtic 69%

Most likely score 0–2, 13%. Both sides score 48%.

From the forecast as it stood on 10 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Kilmarnock win	Draw	Celtic win
Kilmarnock
Top six	58%	77%	65%	52%
11th	3%	1%	2%	3%
Bottom	1%	<1%	1%	1%
Celtic
Title	79%	68%	74%	82%
Rangers
Title	21%	32%	26%	18%
Aberdeen
Top six	55%	49%	53%	57%
11th	3%	4%	4%	3%
Bottom	2%	1%	1%	2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

Celtic

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Kilmarnock	Celtic
Position	6th	1st
Played	16	16
Won, drawn, lost	5–⁠5–⁠6	13–⁠3–⁠0
Points	20 (1.25 per game)	42 (2.62 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.42	2.46
Goals	16–⁠16	42–⁠10
xG per game	1.23–⁠1.09	2.98–⁠0.92
Home: points, xG per game	1.75, 1.21–⁠0.82	2.50, 3.50–⁠0.82
Away: points, xG per game	0.75, 1.24–⁠1.37	2.75, 2.45–⁠1.03
Manager	Derek McInnes (54)	Brendan Rodgers (16)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Kilmarnock		Celtic
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−17%	−32%	+126%	−13%
Counter-attacks	−55%	−21%	+218%	−88%
Set pieces	+23%	+12%	+24%	−39%
Penalties	−29%	−29%	+218%	−100%
Headers	+42%	−20%	+25%	−24%
Left side	+9%	−46%	+112%	−21%
Centre	−22%	−15%	+91%	−18%
Right side	+3%	average	+128%	−45%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side+9%−45%Centre−22%−18%Right side+3%−21%Open play−17%−13%Counter-attacks−55%−88%Set pieces+23%−39%Headers+42%−24%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+112%averageCentre+91%−15%Right side+128%−46%Open play+126%−32%Counter-attacks+218%−21%Set pieces+24%+12%Headers+25%−20%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockCeltic

1.23xG2.98

1.09xG against0.92

48%Possession70%

14.3Shots21.2

12.1Shots against7.7

3.6Shots on target8.2

1.8Big chances4.4

23.8Touches in the opposition box46.4

341Passes676

65%Pass accuracy86%

6.8Corners9.2

52%Field tilt80%

34.9Final-third entries75.7

12.1Box entries24.0

14.0Passes per defensive action10.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	49	1.06	0.99
Ahead	15	1.18	1.28
Behind	25	1.58	1.18

Celtic

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	44	2.63	0.64
Ahead	44	3.38	1.25
Behind	2	1.99	0.07

xG by period

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.10	0.15	1–3
16–30	0.22	0.18	3–3
31–45	0.22	0.17	2–4
46–60	0.21	0.09	3–3
61–75	0.18	0.17	4–0
76–90	0.30	0.33	3–3

Celtic

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.34	0.12	5–1
16–30	0.57	0.10	7–1
31–45	0.28	0.17	5–1
46–60	0.55	0.09	5–1
61–75	0.34	0.22	4–3
76–90	0.90	0.23	16–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

Formations: 3-5-2 (9), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Celtic

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
7 October 2023	Celtic	3–1	Kilmarnock	xG 2.75–1.54
16 April 2023	Kilmarnock	1–4	Celtic	xG 1.73–2.56
7 January 2023	Celtic	2–0	Kilmarnock	xG 3.48–0.08
14 August 2022	Kilmarnock	0–5	Celtic	xG 0.69–3.34
2 February 2021	Kilmarnock	0–4	Celtic	xG 1.87–2.13
13 December 2020	Celtic	2–0	Kilmarnock	xG 1.83–0.79

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Celtic won 6, and 1 was a draw. Goals 3–21 and xG 1.11–2.40 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Armstrong	16	1,410	3	4	0.27	0.35
Vassell	11	969	5	0	0.32	0.07
Kennedy	12	1,148	0	2	0.15	0.19
Watson	13	1,193	2	2	0.12	0.12

Celtic

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Turnbull	8	600	7	0	0.79	0.37
Palma	8	657	5	6	0.52	0.47
Furuhashi	14	1,121	6	3	0.64	0.13
O'Riley	15	1,300	8	5	0.42	0.31

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.