Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

St. Mirren 2–5 Celtic

Saturday 1 March 2025, 17:30 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 29 · Half-time 1–2 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 7,127

St. Mirren John 33', Phillips 48'

Celtic Schlupp 28', Engels 45+1' (pen), Yang 68', 90+3', Maeda 88'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenCeltic
Goals25
xG1.633.37
Non-penalty xG1.632.59
Expected Points0.472.38

St. Mirren 11%Draw 15%Celtic 74%

Most likely score 1–3, 9%. Final score 2–5, 4%.

Celtic goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+1%3%4%4%2%1%3%4%2%2%6%4%2%1%3%4%3%2%1%1%1%7%9%8%8%7%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTScott on for Mandron, 58'Kiltie on for Phillips and Oseni on for Olusanya, 77'Idowu on for Boyd-Munce, 83'Scales on for Trusty, 27'Jota on for Idah and McCowan on for Kühn, 64'Yang on for McGregor, 65'Kenny on for Maeda, 90+5'John 33'Phillips 48'Schlupp 28'Engels 45+1' (pen)Yang 68'Maeda 88'Yang 90+3'Celtic 3.37St. Mirren 1.63012340153045607590HTScott on for Mandron, 58'Kiltie on for Phillips and Oseni on for Olusanya, 77'Idowu on for Boyd-Munce, 83'Scales on for Trusty, 27'Jota on for Idah and McCowan on for Kühn, 64'Yang on for McGregor, 65'Kenny on for Maeda, 90+5'John 33'Phillips 48'Schlupp 28'Engels 45+1' (pen)Yang 68'Maeda 88'Yang 90+3'3.371.63St. MirrenCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenCeltic

1.63 +0.48xG3.37 +0.75
1.63Non-penalty xG2.59
1.83 +0.69xG on target3.84 +0.97
14 +3Shots18 −1
7 +3.2Shots on target9 +1.8
4 +2.1Big chances4 −0.6
18 −2Touches in the opposition box32 −6
24% −18Possession76% +1
204 −94Passes678 −47
66% +1Pass accuracy86% −3
25% −18Field tilt75% −8
35 +4Final-third entries61 −17
14 +5.2Box entries20 −2.4
36.0 +21.5Passes per defensive action13.7 +4.5
3 −1.5Corners3 −6.1
13 −3Tackles8 −7
10 +1.7Interceptions5 −0.4
22 −7Clearances17 −3
3 +0.4Saves5 +2.9
8 −5.2Fouls6 −3.3
4 +1.8Offsides3 +1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Mandron 45+7', 0.39 xGOlusanya 18', 0.27 xGTaylor 76', 0.18 xGOlusanya 40', 0.16 xGO'Hara 23', 0.14 xGOlusanya 63', 0.09 xGMandron 2', 0.07 xGBoyd-Munce 22', 0.06 xGAlebiosu 52', 0.04 xGMandron 55', 0.04 xGMandron 20', 0.03 xGKiltie 82', 0.03 xGJohn 33', 0.07 xG, goalPhillips 48', 0.06 xG, goal11%0.18 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.18 xG, 0 goals72%1.17 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.17 xG, 1 goal4%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals13%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.21 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Engels 15', 0.29 xGEngels 49', 0.20 xGMcCowan 70', 0.20 xGYang 70', 0.17 xGMcCowan 74', 0.12 xGMcCowan 80', 0.11 xGMaeda 12', 0.10 xGHatate 11', 0.09 xGEngels 90+2', 0.09 xGEngels 81', 0.05 xGMcCowan 74', 0.03 xGSchlupp 7', 0.02 xGHatate 74', 0.02 xGMaeda 88', 0.55 xG, goalYang 90+3', 0.30 xG, goalYang 68', 0.20 xG, goalSchlupp 28', 0.04 xG, goal23%0.59 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.59 xG, 1 goal59%1.53 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.53 xG, 2 goals6%0.16 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.16 xG, 1 goal8%0.22 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals3%0.09 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenCeltic

1.27 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play2.50 16 shots, 4 goals
0.04 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.32 3 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.09 1 shot, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
61 min (60%) · St. Mirren 0.90, Celtic 1.73 xG
Celtic ahead
41 min (40%) · St. Mirren 0.74, Celtic 1.64 xG

Line-ups

12213528815624209HemmingFraserGogicTaylorAlebiosuPhillipsBoyd-MunceO'HaraJohnOlusanyaMandronYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoal77'83'77'58'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson122061527424110389SchmeichelJohnstonCarter-VickersTrustySchluppEngelsMcGregorHatateKühnMaedaIdahGoalGoalGoal27'65'64'90+5'64'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 58' Scott for Mandron
  • 77' Kiltie for Phillips
  • 77' Oseni for Olusanya
  • 83' Idowu for Boyd-Munce

Celtic substitutes

  • 27' Scales for Trusty
  • 64' McCowan for Kühn
  • 64' Jota for Idah
  • 65' Yang for McGregor · goal 68', goal 90+3', 1 assist
  • 90+5' Kenny for Maeda

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0420
Fraser CB900.000.0700.0669
Gogic CB900.000.0100.04210
TaylorCB900.180.3020.1245
AlebiosuRWB900.040.0400.0656
Phillips CM7710.060.0920.1233
Boyd-MunceCM830.060.4320.1377
O'HaraCM900.140.2520.0664
JohnLWB9010.070.0200.0552
OlusanyaST770.520.0000.0640
MandronST580.520.0100.0122
ScottFW320.000.0000.0011
KiltieFW130.030.000−0.0100
OseniFW130.000.010−0.0100
IdowuMF70.000.0100.0411

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchmeichelGK900.000.0000.0001
JohnstonRB900.000.1120.19113
Carter-VickersCB900.000.0100.1087
TrustyCB270.000.0000.0100
SchluppLB90110.070.4430.53164
EngelsCM9011.420.0200.0241
McGregorCM650.000.0200.0212
HatateCM9010.110.2330.3182
KühnRW6410.000.0420.1063
MaedaST9010.650.070−0.1000
IdahLW640.000.0510.0102
ScalesDF630.000.0100.0764
McCowanMF260.470.0300.0132
JotaFW260.000.020−0.0100
YangFW25210.660.0420.0020
KennyFW00.000.0000.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Hemming and Phillips: 3 passesHemming and Mandron: 3 passesFraser and Alebiosu: 3 passesFraser and Mandron: 3 passesJohn and O'Hara: 3 passesJohn and Mandron: 3 passesPhillips and Mandron: 3 passesGogic and Taylor: 4 passesTaylor and O'Hara: 4 passesFraser and Phillips: 4 passesBoyd-Munce and Mandron: 5 passesO'Hara and Mandron: 7 passesHemming: 5 completed passesGogic: 5 completed passesTaylor: 8 completed passesFraser: 10 completed passesAlebiosu: 6 completed passesJohn: 7 completed passesPhillips: 10 completed passesO'Hara: 8 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 10 completed passesMandron: 10 completed passesOlusanya: 3 completed passes11352222488615920HemmingGogicTaylorFraserAlebiosuJohnPhillipsO'HaraBoyd-MunceMandronOlusanyaStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Schmeichel and Schlupp: 3 passesJohnston and Schlupp: 3 passesJohnston and Hatate: 3 passesTrusty and Hatate: 3 passesCarter-Vickers and Kühn: 3 passesSchlupp and Kühn: 3 passesEngels and McGregor: 3 passesSchlupp and McGregor: 7 passesHatate and Maeda: 7 passesSchmeichel and Carter-Vickers: 8 passesJohnston and Engels: 8 passesJohnston and McGregor: 8 passesSchlupp and Maeda: 8 passesJohnston and Carter-Vickers: 11 passesSchlupp and Hatate: 12 passesJohnston and Kühn: 13 passesSchmeichel and Trusty: 15 passesTrusty and Carter-Vickers: 16 passesTrusty and Schlupp: 30 passesSchmeichel: 16 completed passesJohnston: 25 completed passesTrusty: 35 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 23 completed passesSchlupp: 34 completed passesEngels: 7 completed passesHatate: 14 completed passesMcGregor: 13 completed passesKühn: 9 completed passesIdah: 2 completed passesMaeda: 9 completed passes126201527414210938SchmeichelJohnstonTrustyCarter-VickersSchluppEngelsHatateMcGregorKühnIdahMaedaStarters until 27' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
GogicTaylor6
MandronO'Hara5
PhillipsHemming4
Boyd-MunceMandron4
FraserAlebiosu4

Celtic

FromToPasses
Carter-VickersJohnston25
ScalesSchlupp23
JohnstonCarter-Vickers20
SchluppHatate19
JohnstonKühn19

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

2−2.89+1.88+2.75−1.39+2.46+0.96−0.77−1.46+0.76+1.62−1.52−2.45−0.93−0.85+1.44+0.84+0.53−1.13+0.14+2.23+1.60−0.90−2.30−1.01+0.40−1.10−0.50−0.62−4.49−4.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Celtic

3−0.56+2.811+2.05+0.33−0.63−2.18+2.92−2.88+1.94−2.95+1.32−1.830.09+3.83−0.42−1.70−2.13−0.90−2.51−1.11−0.31−1.80−2.51−0.10−0.61+0.10−0.80−1.12−3.80−4.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.090.020.030.020.040.010.030.020.020.070.010.020.030.030.040.04−0.01−0.05−0.02−0.010.170.16LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.030.020.040.070.040.07−0.010.060.030.050.070.020.040.030.040.020.10−0.030.070.06−0.160.010.200.40LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackSt. Mirren1.13 → 1.13Celtic2.42 → 2.46Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.39 → 1.44Celtic0.74 → 0.75

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six21%17%−4
11th3%4%+1
Bottom1%1%0
Hearts
Top six65%67%+2
St. Johnstone
11th30%31%+1
Bottom58%58%0

From the forecast before the match (1 March 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenCeltic
Expected goals0.742.26
Win10%71%
Expected Points0.492.33
Clean sheet10%48%

St. Mirren 10%Draw 18%Celtic 71%

Most likely score 0–2, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

Celtic goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+5%5%2%1%3%9%7%4%2%1%1%3%3%3%1%11%13%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 March 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawCeltic win
St. Mirren
Top six21%46%26%17%
11th3%0%3%4%
Bottom1%–<1%1%
Hearts
Top six65%54%64%67%
St. Johnstone
11th30%26%30%31%
Bottom58%62%59%58%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L1–326 FebHearts (A)xG 1.17–1.34
  2. W2–022 FebRangers (A)xG 1.49–0.81
  3. D0–016 FebHibernian (H)xG 0.70–0.37
  4. L0–11 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.38–0.51
  5. W3–025 JanAberdeen (A)xG 1.78–1.41
  6. L0–111 JanDundee United (H)xG 2.39–1.51

Celtic

  1. W5–125 FebAberdeen (H)xG 2.72–0.85
  2. L1–222 FebHibernian (A)xG 1.78–0.67
  3. W3–015 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.64–0.16
  4. W6–05 FebDundee FC (H)xG 2.64–0.48
  5. W3–12 FebMotherwell (A)xG 3.26–0.52
  6. D3–314 JanDundee FC (A)xG 2.12–0.66

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenCeltic
Position9th1st
Played2828
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠4–⁠1423–⁠3–⁠2
Points34 (1.21 per game)72 (2.57 per game)
Expected Points per game1.192.42
Goals33–⁠4282–⁠15
xG per game1.15–⁠1.482.62–⁠0.72
Home: points, xG per game1.29, 1.07–⁠1.102.86, 2.99–⁠0.62
Away: points, xG per game1.14, 1.24–⁠1.872.29, 2.25–⁠0.81
ManagerStephen Robinson (61)Brendan Rodgers (66)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackSt. Mirren1.13, 8thCeltic2.42, 1stDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.39, 7thCeltic0.74, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren attack: 1.13Celtic attack: 2.422.421.13CelticSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren defence: 1.39Celtic defence: 0.741.390.74

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−27%−12%+121%−45%
Counter-attacks−10%+5%+77%−26%
Set pieces−23%+21%+15%−66%
Penalties+38%+61%+61%−54%
Headers−21%−10%+29%−64%
Left side−30%−14%+95%−28%
Centre−26%−3%+94%−53%
Right side−16%+20%+64%−63%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdCeltic concededLeft side−30%−63%Centre−26%−53%Right side−16%−28%Open play−27%−45%Counter-attacks−10%−26%Set pieces−23%−66%Headers−21%−64%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+95%+20%Centre+94%−3%Right side+64%−14%Open play+121%−12%Counter-attacks+77%+5%Set pieces+15%+21%Headers+29%−10%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenCeltic

1.15xG2.62
1.48xG against0.72
42%Possession75%
11.1Shots19.1
12.2Shots against7.1
3.8Shots on target7.2
1.9Big chances4.6
20.2Touches in the opposition box38.5
298Passes725
64%Pass accuracy89%
4.5Corners9.1
42%Field tilt83%
31.2Final-third entries78.0
8.8Box entries22.4
14.5Passes per defensive action9.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level501.151.20
Ahead201.141.79
Behind201.181.89

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level332.670.68
Ahead492.780.69
Behind81.361.08

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.235–6
16–300.150.157–4
31–450.320.158–5
46–600.170.203–7
61–750.110.301–10
76–900.240.459–10

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.300.116–2
16–300.370.1114–1
31–450.490.1217–3
46–600.480.1313–4
61–750.400.1212–1
76–900.580.1420–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTBalcombe 21Hemming 7Fraser 25Alebiosu 1Idowu 1Gogic 23Iacovitti 7Taylor 22Dunne 4Bwomono 15Rooney 6Fraser 3Phillips 25Idowu 8Adeniran 2Boyd-Mu… 13Boyd-MunceSmyth 5McMena… 5McMenaminO'Hara 22Gogic 1Tanser 19John 5Brown 3Olusanya 23van Veen 2Scott 1Kiltie 13Mandron 12Ayunga 53-5-2 in 11 of 28 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (11), 3-4-3 (9), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-1-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 28Johnston 23Ralston 5Carter-Vickers 21Welsh 1Trusty 18Scales 16Taylor 19Valle 7Schlupp 2Engels 16McCowan 11Bernardo 11McGregor 25Hatate 19Kühn 17Yang 5Forrest 3Idah 14Furuhashi 13Maeda 1Maeda 19Jota 3Yang 34-3-3 in 25 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (25), 4-5-1 (1), 4-1-2-3 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
5 January 2025Celtic3–0St. MirrenxG 2.60–1.08
25 August 2024St. Mirren0–3CelticxG 0.15–2.46
18 May 2024Celtic3–2St. MirrenxG 2.30–1.36
13 April 2024Celtic3–0St. MirrenxG 3.33–0.18
2 January 2024St. Mirren0–3CelticxG 0.18–3.62
1 November 2023Celtic2–1St. MirrenxG 3.89–0.62

16 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 2, Celtic won 12, and 2 were drawn. Goals 11–43 and xG 0.66–2.53 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Olusanya231,785810.430.03
Smyth5559400.310.13
Mandron121,244520.240.11
Ayunga5598110.240.10

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Furuhashi151,3331030.930.08
Engels161,410860.520.41
Idah141,197800.690.16
Kühn171,4111060.490.30

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.