Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Ross County 1–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 1 March 2025, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 29 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 3,385

Ross County Phillips 35'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyKilmarnock
Goals10
xG1.102.52
Expected Points0.462.34

Ross County 8%Draw 20%Kilmarnock 71%

Most likely score 1–2, 18%. Final score 1–0, 3%.

Kilmarnock goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+3%4%4%2%3%12%9%3%1%4%7%5%3%1%18%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTKenneh on for Phillips and Robesten on for Ashworth, 70'Samuel on for Chilvers, 82'Smith on for Nisbet, 90+3'Armstrong on for Murray, Magennis on for Watson, and Wales on for Polworth, 63'Kennedy on for Magennis, 75'Cameron on for Watkins, 82'Phillips 35'Kilmarnock 2.52Ross County 1.1001230153045607590HTKenneh on for Phillips and Robesten on for Ashworth, 70'Samuel on for Chilvers, 82'Smith on for Nisbet, 90+3'Armstrong on for Murray, Magennis on for Watson, and Wales on for Polworth, 63'Kennedy on for Magennis, 75'Cameron on for Watkins, 82'Phillips 35'2.521.10Ross CountyKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyKilmarnock

1.10 +0.03xG2.52 +1.16
0.99 −0.04xG on target0.83 −0.38
5 −6Shots20 +7
2 −1.4Shots on target4 +0.1
1 −0.2Big chances2 0.0
17 +2Touches in the opposition box45 +23
42% +3Possession58% +14
259 −27Passes345 +30
50% −15Pass accuracy59% −8
44% +8Field tilt56% +12
21 −8Final-third entries28 −5
8 +0.9Box entries13 +2.5
11.1 −6Passes per defensive action9.8 −5
5 +0.3Corners6 +0.2
21 +4Tackles15 0
9 −1.1Interceptions8 −0.7
66 +27Clearances34 −2
4 +0.9Saves0 −2.7
8 −3Fouls10 0
3 +1.9Offsides0 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

White 35', 0.18 xGWhite 90+2', 0.08 xGChilvers 59', 0.04 xGLopata 33', 0.02 xGPhillips 35', 0.79 xG, goal87%0.96 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.96 xG, 1 goal9%0.10 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals4%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Anderson 89', 0.67 xGWatkins 15', 0.34 xGWatkins 15', 0.22 xGAnderson 72', 0.16 xGWright 16', 0.14 xGAnderson 89', 0.12 xGAnderson 72', 0.10 xGAnderson 16', 0.09 xGAnderson 87', 0.09 xGCameron 89', 0.09 xGLyons 63', 0.08 xGLyons 7', 0.07 xGLyons 9', 0.07 xGDeas 60', 0.07 xGMurray 62', 0.05 xGArmstrong 63', 0.05 xGLyons 43', 0.04 xGDeas 11', 0.03 xGKennedy 90+4', 0.02 xGLyons 49', 0.01 xG28%0.71 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.71 xG, 0 goals54%1.35 xGCentral box: 12 shots, 1.35 xG, 0 goals15%0.38 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals2%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyKilmarnock

1.08 4 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.81 10 shots, 0 goals
0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.70 10 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
35 min (37%) · Ross County 0.98, Kilmarnock 0.95 xG
Ross County ahead
59 min (63%) · Ross County 0.11, Kilmarnock 1.57 xG

Line-ups

18122019482315102611AmissahTomkinsonLopataCampbellWrightRandallNisbetAshworthChilversWhitePhillipsYellow cardGoal90+3'70'82'70'Ross County 3-4-1-2Don Cowie1854612313152319O'HaraLyonsMayoWrightDeasWatsonPolworthNdabaMurrayWatkinsAnderson63'63'63'82'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

Ross County substitutes

  • 70' Kenneh for Phillips
  • 70' Robesten for Ashworth
  • 82' Samuel for Chilvers
  • 90+3' Smith for Nisbet

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 63' Magennis for Watson · off 75'
  • 63' Wales for Polworth
  • 63' Armstrong for Murray
  • 75' Kennedy for Magennis
  • 82' Cameron for Watkins

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AmissahGK900.000.0000.0113
TomkinsonCB900.000.0400.06613
LopataCB900.020.020−0.07522
CampbellCB900.000.1600.10319
WrightRWB900.000.0100.00114
Randall CM900.000.0600.1068
NisbetCM900.000.0100.0319
AshworthLWB700.000.1810.1722
ChilversAM820.040.0200.0673
WhiteST900.260.0110.0717
PhillipsST7010.790.1010.0700
KennehMF200.000.0000.0113
RobestenFW200.000.0000.0002
SamuelFW80.000.0100.0111
SmithDF00.000.000––0

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
O'HaraGK900.000.0000.0122
LyonsRB900.280.4610.2113
MayoCB900.000.0110.01310
WrightCB900.140.011−0.01010
DeasLB900.100.0200.08711
WatsonRM630.000.1020.0912
PolworthCM630.000.0300.0642
NdabaCM900.000.0400.08512
MurrayLM630.050.0720.0332
WatkinsST820.560.010−0.0501
AndersonST901.230.062−0.1201
MagennisMF120.000.0000.0002
WalesFW270.000.0200.0000
ArmstrongFW270.050.2610.1040
KennedyMF150.020.1400.1550
CameronFW80.090.010−0.0301

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Amissah and White: 3 passesTomkinson and Wright: 3 passesTomkinson and Randall: 3 passesCampbell and White: 3 passesWright and White: 3 passesAshworth and White: 3 passesLopata and Campbell: 4 passesLopata and Ashworth: 4 passesCampbell and Randall: 4 passesWright and Chilvers: 4 passesRandall and Chilvers: 4 passesTomkinson and Nisbet: 5 passesCampbell and Chilvers: 5 passesRandall and Ashworth: 5 passesLopata and Chilvers: 6 passesChilvers and White: 7 passesCampbell and Ashworth: 9 passesAshworth and Chilvers: 10 passesAmissah: 5 completed passesLopata: 11 completed passesTomkinson: 8 completed passesCampbell: 20 completed passesWright: 11 completed passesNisbet: 9 completed passesRandall: 12 completed passesAshworth: 15 completed passesChilvers: 15 completed passesPhillips: 2 completed passesWhite: 7 completed passes18201219423815101126AmissahLopataTomkinsonCampbellWrightNisbetRandallAshworthChilversPhillipsWhiteStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

O'Hara and Lyons: 3 passesWright and Mayo: 3 passesDeas and Polworth: 3 passesWatson and Ndaba: 3 passesWatson and Polworth: 3 passesWatson and Watkins: 3 passesNdaba and Polworth: 3 passesPolworth and Watkins: 3 passesWright and Polworth: 4 passesDeas and Watson: 4 passesLyons and Watson: 5 passesDeas and Ndaba: 5 passesWatson and Murray: 6 passesPolworth and Anderson: 7 passesDeas and Murray: 8 passesLyons and Mayo: 9 passesMayo and Polworth: 9 passesLyons and Polworth: 17 passesO'Hara: 5 completed passesLyons: 19 completed passesWright: 7 completed passesMayo: 15 completed passesDeas: 12 completed passesWatson: 18 completed passesNdaba: 12 completed passesPolworth: 23 completed passesMurray: 8 completed passesAnderson: 7 completed passesWatkins: 7 completed passes1845612331151923O'HaraLyonsWrightMayoDeasWatsonNdabaPolworthMurrayAndersonWatkinsStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
ChilversAshworth6
CampbellAshworth6
CampbellWhite6
LopataChilvers5
WhiteChilvers4

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
LyonsPolworth9
PolworthLyons8
LyonsMayo7
NdabaDeas7
MayoNdaba7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

9+3.614+7.033+13.95−4.77+0.89+1.07−0.39+2.110+1.89+0.83−2.56+1.66+2.40−4.412+6.73−0.72−0.82+0.35+2.33−0.44+1.41−0.80−1.21+0.13+0.80−0.90−0.21+0.60−0.11+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Kilmarnock

1−3.76−1.711−5.917+9.74−1.16+0.14−3.36−0.94−2.710+3.74−1.25+1.04+0.43−1.850.01−2.25+1.32−0.22−1.33−1.31−1.01−0.71+0.24+2.62−0.80−0.60−0.40−0.80−0.42+1.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.030.010.010.020.040.040.010.010.010.060.050.07−0.010.010.020.16LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.020.020.030.020.010.020.040.060.010.070.020.050.07−0.12−0.100.180.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackRoss County1.11 → 1.10Kilmarnock1.23 → 1.25Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.48 → 1.50Kilmarnock1.37 → 1.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six8%15%+7
11th8%4%−4
Bottom2%1%−1
Kilmarnock
Top six3%<1%−3
11th8%13%+5
Bottom1%3%+2

From the forecast before the match (1 March 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyKilmarnock
Expected goals1.331.22
Win39%33%
Expected Points1.441.28
Clean sheet30%26%

Ross County 39%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 33%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Kilmarnock goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%2%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 March 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawKilmarnock win
Ross County
Top six8%15%6%2%
11th8%4%9%12%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
Kilmarnock
Top six3%<1%1%8%
11th8%13%8%3%
Bottom1%3%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L0–126 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.26–1.26
  2. W3–122 FebDundee FC (H)xG 3.92–0.66
  3. W3–015 FebMotherwell (A)xG 1.16–0.75
  4. L0–42 FebRangers (A)xG 0.12–3.47
  5. D1–125 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.78–0.69
  6. L1–411 JanCeltic (H)xG 0.97–4.20

Kilmarnock

  1. L2–426 FebRangers (H)xG 1.38–1.95
  2. L0–122 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.43–1.08
  3. W3–115 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.40–0.67
  4. W1–01 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.39–1.46
  5. L2–325 JanHearts (A)xG 1.05–2.51
  6. D0–08 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.72–0.39

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyKilmarnock
Position9th10th
Played2828
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠8–⁠128–⁠7–⁠13
Points32 (1.14 per game)31 (1.11 per game)
Expected Points per game1.201.30
Goals30–⁠4933–⁠46
xG per game1.07–⁠1.591.36–⁠1.49
Home: points, xG per game1.21, 1.43–⁠1.111.57, 1.84–⁠1.18
Away: points, xG per game1.07, 0.72–⁠2.070.64, 0.88–⁠1.79
ManagerDon Cowie (43)Derek McInnes (104)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackRoss County1.11, 9thKilmarnock1.23, 5thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.48, 8thKilmarnock1.37, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebRoss County attack: 1.11Kilmarnock attack: 1.231.231.11KilmarnockRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebRoss County defence: 1.48Kilmarnock defence: 1.371.481.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−51%+29%−13%+8%
Counter-attacks−23%−13%−43%−15%
Set pieces−5%−17%+22%+17%
Penalties+81%+13%+13%−32%
Headers−43%+9%−2%average
Left side−17%+4%+4%+2%
Centre−36%+12%−14%+15%
Right side−47%+20%+1%−1%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−17%−1%Centre−36%+15%Right side−47%+2%Open play−51%+8%Counter-attacks−23%−15%Set pieces−5%+17%Headers−43%average

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRoss County concededLeft side+4%+20%Centre−14%+12%Right side+1%+4%Open play−13%+29%Counter-attacks−43%−13%Set pieces+22%−17%Headers−2%+9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyKilmarnock

1.07xG1.36
1.59xG against1.49
39%Possession44%
10.5Shots12.8
15.0Shots against13.0
3.4Shots on target3.9
1.2Big chances2.0
15.5Touches in the opposition box21.9
286Passes315
65%Pass accuracy67%
4.7Corners5.8
36%Field tilt44%
29.2Final-third entries32.8
7.1Box entries10.5
16.9Passes per defensive action15.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.071.38
Ahead181.071.11
Behind271.092.29

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.371.47
Ahead171.601.38
Behind281.211.58

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.172–4
16–300.160.204–6
31–450.200.354–13
46–600.180.238–5
61–750.130.262–5
76–900.250.3910–16

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.245–3
16–300.210.203–6
31–450.150.242–8
46–600.170.257–8
61–750.270.227–8
76–900.320.349–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTLaidlaw 15Amissah 10Hamilton 3Wright 24Tomkinson 5Efete 2Lopata 22Allardice 2Leak 14Campbell 11Nightingale 3Brown 15Efete 7Wright 3Nisbet 12Kenneh 7Harmon 6Randall 23Allardice 3White 2Chilvers 16Denholm 5Loturi 2Harmon 11Nisbet 5Campbell 4White 13Phillips 4Brophy 3Hale 22Chilvers 6Nisbet 23-5-2 in 9 of 28 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (9), 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-5-1-1 (6), 3-4-3 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 18O'Hara 10Lyons 9Mayo 6Armstrong 4Mayo 16Wright 14Deas 12Findlay 9Ndaba 11Lyons 5Deas 5Armstrong 14Wright 3Murray 2Watson 13Murray 3Watkins 1Polworth 11Lyons 7Donnelly 7Kennedy 10Murray 9Ndaba 3Vassell 19Wales 5Cameron 2Watkins 18Anderson 5Donnelly 24-4-2 in 12 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (12), 3-4-1-2 (5), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
5 January 2025Kilmarnock0–1Ross CountyxG 0.56–1.15
26 October 2024Ross County2–1KilmarnockxG 0.82–0.72
6 April 2024Kilmarnock1–0Ross CountyxG 0.98–0.47
25 November 2023Ross County0–0KilmarnockxG 0.88–0.65
2 September 2023Kilmarnock0–1Ross CountyxG 1.42–0.72
28 May 2023Kilmarnock3–1Ross CountyxG 1.46–1.25

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 6, Kilmarnock won 4, and 3 were drawn. Goals 17–15 and xG 1.12–1.12 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hale221,760800.410.05
White151,618500.320.05
Chilvers221,783350.130.17
Grieves7539020.050.16

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson8853800.760.06
Kennedy11954410.180.32
Watkins191,658410.390.05
Vassell191,425210.320.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.