Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

St. Mirren 0–1 Kilmarnock

Wednesday 27 December 2023, 19:45 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 20 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Euan Anderson · Attendance 7,534

Kilmarnock Watkins 25'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Goals01
xG0.460.81
Expected Points0.941.64

St. Mirren 18%Draw 42%Kilmarnock 41%

Most likely score 0–0, 27%. Final score 0–1, 25%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%2%12%14%4%2%3%1%27%25%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTMandron on for Olusanya and McMenamin on for Fraser, 64'Nachmani on for Ayunga, 75'McKenzie on for Kennedy, 72'Dallas on for Watkins, 75'Wright on for Armstrong, 87'Watkins 25'Kilmarnock 0.81St. Mirren 0.4600.250.50.7510153045607590HTMandron on for Olusanya and McMenamin on for Fraser, 64'Nachmani on for Ayunga, 75'McKenzie on for Kennedy, 72'Dallas on for Watkins, 75'Wright on for Armstrong, 87'Watkins 25'0.810.46St. MirrenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenKilmarnock

0.46 −0.52xG0.81 −0.45
11 +1.1Shots12 −2.1
6 +2.8Shots on target3 −0.8
0 −1.8Big chances1 −0.8
19 +2Touches in the opposition box12 −12
60% +15Possession40% −7
413 +81Passes280 −57
66% +1Pass accuracy52% −12
57% +15Field tilt42% −8
50 +18Final-third entries23 −10
12 +3.6Box entries10 −2.1
13.7 −3Passes per defensive action13.2 −1
4 −0.8Corners4 −2.6
19 +5Tackles22 +10
4 −4.3Interceptions11 +4.2
16 −8Clearances45 +27
2 −1.0Saves6 +3.2
7 −4Fouls10 −2
5 +3.5Offsides3 +1.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Nachmani 90+5', 0.10 xGTanser 84', 0.08 xGBolton 25', 0.05 xGNachmani 76', 0.05 xGTanser 41', 0.04 xGBolton 77', 0.03 xGKiltie 90+2', 0.03 xGTaylor 10', 0.02 xGBolton 45+3', 0.02 xGKiltie 62', 0.02 xGAyunga 30', 0.01 xG20%0.09 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals39%0.18 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals15%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals20%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals7%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Kennedy 35', 0.07 xGArmstrong 37', 0.07 xGMcKenzie 83', 0.05 xGArmstrong 22', 0.04 xGWatson 37', 0.04 xGArmstrong 45', 0.04 xGFindlay 80', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 80', 0.03 xGNdaba 89', 0.03 xGWatkins 46', 0.01 xGMcKenzie 89', 0.01 xGWatkins 25', 0.35 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals49%0.39 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.39 xG, 1 goal14%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals37%0.30 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenKilmarnock

0.43 10 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.56 6 shots, 1 goal
0.03 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.24 6 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
25 min (26%) · St. Mirren 0.07, Kilmarnock 0.39 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
73 min (74%) · St. Mirren 0.39, Kilmarnock 0.42 xG

Line-ups

1213522617113207HemmingBoltonGogicTaylorFraserO'HaraBaccusKiltieTanserOlusanyaAyungaYellow cardYellow cardYellow card64'64'75'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson1561711812310239DennisMayoDeasFindlayArmstrongLyonsWatsonNdabaKennedyWatkinsVassellYellow cardYellow cardGoal87'72'75'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 64' McMenamin for Fraser
  • 64' Mandron for Olusanya
  • 75' Nachmani for Ayunga

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 72' McKenzie for Kennedy
  • 75' Dallas for Watkins
  • 87' Wright for Armstrong

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0430
BoltonCB900.100.7500.1276
Gogic CB900.000.0100.0845
Taylor CB900.020.0100.06711
FraserRWB640.000.0110.0241
O'HaraCM900.000.071−0.0160
Baccus CM900.000.0500.1072
KiltieCM900.060.1910.0631
TanserLWB900.120.0400.101011
OlusanyaST640.000.000−0.0200
AyungaST750.010.0020.0422
McMenaminFW260.000.0610.2151
MandronFW260.000.1430.1312
NachmaniFW150.150.0000.0000

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0450
MayoCB900.000.0200.05510
Deas CB900.000.0000.01313
Findlay CB900.040.0000.03310
ArmstrongRWB870.150.0000.0654
LyonsCM900.000.0300.03411
WatsonCM900.040.022−0.0127
NdabaCM900.030.0100.0546
KennedyLWB7210.070.2710.0851
WatkinsST7510.370.0000.0322
VassellST900.000.0220.0858
McKenzieMF180.100.0010.0002
DallasFW150.000.000−0.0101
WrightDF30.000.0000.0005

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Gogic and Tanser: 4 passesTaylor and Bolton: 4 passesTaylor and Kiltie: 4 passesTanser and Baccus: 4 passesTanser and O'Hara: 4 passesTanser and Ayunga: 4 passesBaccus and Olusanya: 4 passesBaccus and Kiltie: 5 passesGogic and Bolton: 6 passesGogic and O'Hara: 6 passesFraser and Baccus: 6 passesFraser and Ayunga: 6 passesTanser and Kiltie: 6 passesBolton and Baccus: 7 passesTanser and Olusanya: 7 passesTaylor and Baccus: 8 passesFraser and O'Hara: 11 passesTaylor and Tanser: 13 passesBolton and Fraser: 14 passesGogic and Taylor: 15 passesHemming: 4 completed passesGogic: 21 completed passesTaylor: 29 completed passesBolton: 24 completed passesFraser: 24 completed passesTanser: 24 completed passesBaccus: 22 completed passesO'Hara: 20 completed passesKiltie: 9 completed passesOlusanya: 5 completed passesAyunga: 5 completed passes1135222317611207HemmingGogicTaylorBoltonFraserTanserBaccusO'HaraKiltieOlusanyaAyungaStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Vassell: 3 passesFindlay and Deas: 3 passesFindlay and Kennedy: 3 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 3 passesKennedy and Vassell: 3 passesNdaba and Watson: 3 passesNdaba and Vassell: 3 passesWatson and Lyons: 3 passesDennis and Kennedy: 4 passesMayo and Armstrong: 4 passesMayo and Watson: 4 passesMayo and Vassell: 4 passesArmstrong and Watson: 4 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 4 passesLyons and Watkins: 4 passesDennis and Mayo: 5 passesFindlay and Vassell: 5 passesKennedy and Lyons: 5 passesKennedy and Watkins: 5 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 6 passesKennedy and Watson: 6 passesMayo and Lyons: 8 passesKennedy and Ndaba: 8 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 10 passesDennis: 9 completed passesFindlay: 10 completed passesMayo: 22 completed passesDeas: 8 completed passesArmstrong: 10 completed passesKennedy: 24 completed passesNdaba: 15 completed passesWatson: 13 completed passesLyons: 20 completed passesWatkins: 5 completed passesVassell: 8 completed passes1175611103128239DennisFindlayMayoDeasArmstrongKennedyNdabaWatsonLyonsWatkinsVassellStarters until 72' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
TaylorGogic12
GogicTaylor12
TaylorTanser9
TanserTaylor9
GogicBolton9

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
LyonsArmstrong7
MayoVassell6
NdabaKennedy5
FindlayVassell5
MayoArmstrong4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

0−5.52−5.28−6.411+3.714+8.65−3.22−5.93−1.35−3.68+0.58+2.04−1.01−2.05−1.95−1.43−0.94+1.20−2.830.01−2.90−2.40−2.03+2.41−0.42−0.34+3.10−0.31+0.10−0.40−1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Kilmarnock

4−0.612+5.617+5.615+8.07+2.78+1.411+3.97+1.28+2.210+3.53−2.75−0.34+0.23−1.56+0.83−2.44+0.41−1.82−1.56+1.38+5.12−0.11+0.21−0.81−1.22+1.30−0.40−1.00−0.30−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.020.010.010.020.020.020.010.040.050.030.020.030.080.050.050.060.010.110.02−0.030.06−0.070.060.21LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.010.020.01−0.01−0.010.010.020.020.010.020.050.050.03−0.030.020.040.02−0.03−0.010.010.050.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackSt. Mirren1.02 → 1.00Kilmarnock1.16 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.38 → 1.38Kilmarnock1.24 → 1.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six44%30%−14
11th3%5%+2
Bottom1%1%0
Kilmarnock
Top six82%92%+10
11th<1%<1%0

From the forecast before the match (27 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.201.13
Win37%34%
Expected Points1.401.30
Clean sheet32%30%

St. Mirren 37%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 48%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+6%2%7%3%7%8%4%2%3%3%2%10%10%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawKilmarnock win
St. Mirren
Top six44%60%41%30%
11th3%1%3%5%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%
Kilmarnock
Top six82%72%82%92%
11th<1%1%<1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L0–223 DecHearts (A)xG 0.64–1.20
  2. D0–016 DecMotherwell (H)xG 1.25–1.00
  3. W2–09 DecRoss County (H)xG 0.94–0.62
  4. L0–16 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.93–1.98
  5. L0–23 DecRangers (A)xG 0.14–1.75
  6. L0–128 NovRoss County (A)xG 0.24–0.66

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–123 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.37–1.37
  2. D0–016 DecLivingston (A)xG 0.88–1.14
  3. W2–110 DecCeltic (H)xG 2.06–1.68
  4. W1–06 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.64–1.14
  5. L0–12 DecHearts (H)xG 1.16–0.73
  6. D0–025 NovRoss County (A)xG 0.65–0.88

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Position5th4th
Played1919
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠5–⁠77–⁠6–⁠6
Points26 (1.37 per game)27 (1.42 per game)
Expected Points per game1.101.41
Goals21–⁠2420–⁠18
xG per game0.98–⁠1.431.26–⁠1.14
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.22–⁠1.142.00, 1.31–⁠0.96
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 0.76–⁠1.690.78, 1.20–⁠1.34
ManagerStephen Robinson (14)Derek McInnes (57)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackSt. Mirren1.02, 9thKilmarnock1.16, 5thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.38, 7thKilmarnock1.24, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecSt. Mirren attack: 1.02Kilmarnock attack: 1.161.161.02KilmarnockSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecSt. Mirren defence: 1.38Kilmarnock defence: 1.241.381.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−32%−5%−12%−26%
Counter-attacks−6%+41%−27%−29%
Set pieces−43%−11%+21%+7%
Penalties+24%+86%−38%−7%
Headers−10%−12%+40%−19%
Left side−44%−6%+9%−39%
Centre−35%+9%−17%−12%
Right side−20%−31%+10%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−44%−5%Centre−35%−12%Right side−20%−39%Open play−32%−26%Counter-attacks−6%−29%Set pieces−43%+7%Headers−10%−19%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+9%−31%Centre−17%+9%Right side+10%−6%Open play−12%−5%Counter-attacks−27%+41%Set pieces+21%−11%Headers+40%−12%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenKilmarnock

0.98xG1.26
1.43xG against1.14
45%Possession47%
9.9Shots14.1
12.0Shots against11.9
3.2Shots on target3.8
1.8Big chances1.8
16.7Touches in the opposition box23.9
332Passes337
65%Pass accuracy64%
4.8Corners6.6
43%Field tilt51%
32.3Final-third entries33.4
8.4Box entries12.1
16.6Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level490.891.31
Ahead231.061.55
Behind181.131.59

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level491.091.07
Ahead181.211.35
Behind241.641.14

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.084–1
16–300.100.221–4
31–450.120.264–4
46–600.260.206–2
61–750.170.251–5
76–900.160.435–8

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.152–3
16–300.240.174–3
31–450.230.182–5
46–600.220.083–3
61–750.170.225–1
76–900.290.354–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 19Fraser 19Gogic 19Taylor 16Dunne 3Strain 11Small 3Flynn 3Baccus 11Greive 1Jamieson 1O'Hara 10Boyd-Munce 10Kiltie 4Tanser 16O'Hara 2Boyd-Munce 1McMenamin 12Tanser 3O'Hara 3Mandron 7Olusanya 6Ayunga 4Kiltie 15Ayunga 2Greive 13-4-3 in 9 of 19 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (9), 3-4-2-1 (5), 3-5-2 (4), 5-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 19Mayo 18Deas 11Wright 10Findlay 18Armstrong 18Mayo 1Watson 15Watkins 1Armstrong 1Magennis 7Donnelly 5Deas 2Lyons 18Polworth 6Kennedy 1Ndaba 9Kennedy 8Deas 1Watkins 15Kennedy 4Vassell 14Findlay 1Polworth 13-5-2 in 11 of 19 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (11), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 September 2023Kilmarnock1–1St. MirrenxG 0.73–0.79
22 April 2023St. Mirren0–2KilmarnockxG 0.51–2.32
2 January 2023Kilmarnock0–0St. MirrenxG 0.70–0.35
15 October 2022St. Mirren0–0KilmarnockxG 0.68–1.13
12 May 2021Kilmarnock3–3St. MirrenxG 1.33–1.21
6 February 2021St. Mirren2–0KilmarnockxG 1.56–0.49

8 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Kilmarnock won 2, and 5 were drawn. Goals 7–8 and xG 0.76–1.04 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Mandron8740310.290.05
Olusanya6666110.280.06
Kiltie191,491230.180.11
O'Hara151,333210.190.06

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong191,677370.260.34
Vassell141,239500.330.06
Kennedy131,238120.170.19
Watson151,373320.120.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.