Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 3–1 St. Johnstone

Saturday 15 February 2025, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 26 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 5,479

Kilmarnock Polworth 9', Murray 56', Wales 60'

St. Johnstone Carey 90+1'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Goals31
xG1.400.67
Expected Points1.930.77

Kilmarnock 55%Draw 29%St. Johnstone 16%

Most likely score 1–0, 18%. Final score 3–1, 4%.

St. Johnstone goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+11%8%2%4%10%3%5%4%1%1%1%18%15%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTWatson on for Magennis, 67'Anderson on for Wales, 80'Cameron on for Watkins, Donnelly on for Murray, and Kennedy on for Polworth, 85'Duke-McKenna on for Griffith, 23'Mitchell on for Curtis and Steven on for Douglas, 46'Carey on for Watt, 57'Sidibeh on for Kirk, 68'Polworth 9'Murray 56'Wales 60'Carey 90+1'Kilmarnock 1.40St. Johnstone 0.6700.511.50153045607590HTWatson on for Magennis, 67'Anderson on for Wales, 80'Cameron on for Watkins, Donnelly on for Murray, and Kennedy on for Polworth, 85'Duke-McKenna on for Griffith, 23'Mitchell on for Curtis and Steven on for Douglas, 46'Carey on for Watt, 57'Sidibeh on for Kirk, 68'Polworth 9'Murray 56'Wales 60'Carey 90+1'1.400.67KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

1.40 0.00xG0.67 −0.36
1.87 +0.70xG on target0.90 −0.11
13 0Shots11 +1
4 +0.2Shots on target3 −0.1
2 0.0Big chances2 +0.7
35 +13Touches in the opposition box19 +3
40% −5Possession60% +7
314 −6Passes487 +51
65% −2Pass accuracy80% +2
51% +7Field tilt49% +4
29 −4Final-third entries33 −4
19 +8.7Box entries11 +2.3
12.0 −3Passes per defensive action12.1 −4
7 +1.2Corners5 +1.2
24 +10Tackles20 +6
10 +1.2Interceptions13 +5.1
35 −1Clearances32 0
2 −0.8Saves1 −1.9
11 +1Fouls7 −4
0 −1.2Offsides0 −1.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Magennis 17', 0.13 xGLyons 3', 0.11 xGWright 13', 0.11 xGLyons 55', 0.08 xGWatkins 44', 0.07 xGDonnelly 90+2', 0.07 xGPolworth 63', 0.06 xGMagennis 47', 0.05 xGWales 14', 0.04 xGMagennis 16', 0.03 xGPolworth 9', 0.32 xG, goalWales 60', 0.30 xG, goalMurray 56', 0.04 xG, goal29%0.41 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.41 xG, 1 goal47%0.66 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.66 xG, 1 goal8%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals13%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 1 goal

St. Johnstone

Kirk 67', 0.19 xGBalodis 53', 0.11 xGKirk 48', 0.08 xGCurtis 36', 0.04 xGKirk 42', 0.04 xGCarey 88', 0.04 xGWright 4', 0.01 xGKirk 38', 0.01 xGSteven 85', 0.01 xGDuke-McKenna 90+3', 0.01 xGCarey 90+1', 0.13 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals22%0.15 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals67%0.45 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.45 xG, 1 goal7%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

1.06 8 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.51 8 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.34 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.12 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
9 min (10%) · Kilmarnock 0.43, St. Johnstone 0.01 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
84 min (90%) · Kilmarnock 0.98, St. Johnstone 0.66 xG

Line-ups

1845616313242315O'HaraLyonsWrightMayoDeasMagennisPolworthNdabaWalesWatkinsMurrayYellow cardGoalGoalGoal67'85'80'85'85'Kilmarnock 4-3-3Derek McInnes14230372344148627FisherBalodisMikulicDouglasCurtisSpranglerWattWrightSvedbergGriffithKirkYellow card46'46'57'23'68'St. Johnstone 3-4-2-1Simo Valakari

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 67' Watson for Magennis
  • 80' Anderson for Wales
  • 85' Donnelly for Murray
  • 85' Kennedy for Polworth
  • 85' Cameron for Watkins

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 23' Duke-McKenna for Griffith
  • 46' Mitchell for Curtis
  • 46' Steven for Douglas
  • 57' Carey for Watt · goal 90+1'
  • 68' Sidibeh for Kirk

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
O'HaraGK900.000.0000.0342
LyonsRB900.180.040−0.08104
WrightCB900.110.0310.08210
Mayo CB9010.000.1510.0219
DeasLB900.000.071−0.06415
MagennisCM670.210.040−0.1835
PolworthCM8510.380.0310.2245
NdabaCM900.000.0000.0126
WalesRW80110.340.0410.1931
WatkinsST850.070.0100.0524
MurrayLW8510.040.5050.3794
WatsonMF230.000.0200.0212
AndersonFW100.000.000−0.0100
DonnellyMF50.070.0000.0001
KennedyMF50.000.0010.0001
CameronFW50.000.0000.0000

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
FisherGK900.000.0000.0340
BalodisCB900.110.0100.05514
MikulicCB900.000.0000.05515
DouglasCB460.000.0100.0315
CurtisRWB460.040.0000.0122
SpranglerCM900.000.0210.04712
WattCM570.000.1010.0348
Wright LWB900.010.0510.09102
SvedbergAM9010.000.113−0.0521
GriffithAM230.000.0000.0102
KirkST680.330.0000.0112
Duke-McKennaMF670.010.1120.31113
MitchellDF440.000.010−0.0121
StevenMF440.010.0000.0001
CareyMF3310.170.2310.2060
SidibehFW220.000.010−0.1100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Lyons and Wales: 4 passesNdaba and Polworth: 4 passesPolworth and Wales: 4 passesWatkins and Murray: 4 passesLyons and Mayo: 5 passesLyons and Murray: 5 passesWright and Polworth: 5 passesWright and Magennis: 5 passesWright and Wales: 5 passesMayo and Polworth: 5 passesNdaba and Murray: 5 passesPolworth and Murray: 5 passesO'Hara and Mayo: 6 passesLyons and Watkins: 6 passesWright and Mayo: 6 passesLyons and Wright: 8 passesLyons and Polworth: 8 passesMayo and Deas: 8 passesPolworth and Magennis: 8 passesLyons and Magennis: 9 passesDeas and Ndaba: 10 passesDeas and Polworth: 11 passesDeas and Murray: 12 passesO'Hara: 10 completed passesLyons: 24 completed passesWright: 21 completed passesMayo: 20 completed passesDeas: 30 completed passesNdaba: 14 completed passesPolworth: 29 completed passesMagennis: 19 completed passesWales: 8 completed passesWatkins: 7 completed passesMurray: 17 completed passes1845633116242315O'HaraLyonsWrightMayoDeasNdabaPolworthMagennisWalesWatkinsMurrayStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Johnstone

Mikulic and Balodis: 3 passesBalodis and Sprangler: 4 passesSprangler and Svedberg: 4 passesFisher and Douglas: 5 passesBalodis and Curtis: 5 passesFisher and Balodis: 8 passesFisher: 9 completed passesMikulic: 5 completed passesBalodis: 10 completed passesDouglas: 7 completed passesCurtis: 7 completed passesWright: 1 completed passesSprangler: 8 completed passesWatt: 4 completed passesGriffith: 2 completed passesSvedberg: 3 completed passesKirk: 2 completed passes12430371423446827FisherMikulicBalodisDouglasCurtisWrightSpranglerWattGriffithSvedbergKirkStarters until 23' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DeasMurray9
DeasPolworth8
WrightLyons7
MayoO'Hara7
MayoDeas6

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
SpranglerCarey14
BalodisFisher12
WrightDuke-McKenna11
MitchellSprangler10
Duke-McKennaWright10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

5+0.36−1.914−3.05−2.53−2.45−0.86−1.37+0.28+1.64−2.69+3.66+2.26+2.72−2.910+5.02−1.44+0.40−2.27+3.87+2.82+0.15+3.41+0.27+5.910+7.41+0.40−0.50−0.80−0.40−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

St. Johnstone

5−0.45−2.316−3.514+7.34−1.810+3.111+3.78+1.52−4.88+0.210+5.18+3.77+3.87+2.67+1.42−0.94+1.44+2.54+1.74+0.52−0.41−0.51+0.12+0.80−1.80−0.70−0.30−0.40−0.30−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.020.010.020.010.020.040.010.010.010.05−0.01−0.010.060.090.080.040.020.02−0.21−0.180.280.31LessMore

St. Johnstone

0.040.010.020.010.020.020.020.020.040.010.040.040.040.030.050.020.110.09−0.01−0.03−0.07−0.070.030.23LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.23 → 1.25St. Johnstone1.01 → 1.01Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.35 → 1.34St. Johnstone1.54 → 1.57

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six18%25%+7
11th7%5%−2
Bottom2%1%−1
St. Johnstone
11th21%18%−3
Bottom63%71%+8
Dundee FC
Top six5%5%0
11th28%31%+3
Bottom17%14%−3
Hearts
Top six52%50%−2

From the forecast before the match (15 February 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Expected goals1.690.92
Win55%20%
Expected Points1.900.85
Clean sheet40%19%

Kilmarnock 55%Draw 25%St. Johnstone 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

St. Johnstone goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%1%5%2%4%1%6%5%2%2%2%1%12%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 15 February 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Johnstone win
Kilmarnock
Top six18%25%12%7%
11th7%5%9%12%
Bottom2%1%2%7%
St. Johnstone
11th21%18%22%26%
Bottom63%71%61%46%
Dundee FC
Top six5%5%5%4%
11th28%31%26%23%
Bottom17%14%18%24%
Hearts
Top six52%50%53%55%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W1–01 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.39–1.46
  2. L2–325 JanHearts (A)xG 1.05–2.51
  3. D0–08 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.72–0.39
  4. L0–15 JanRoss County (H)xG 0.56–1.15
  5. W2–02 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.98–0.26
  6. L0–129 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.25–2.32

St. Johnstone

  1. W1–01 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.51–0.38
  2. W2–125 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.50–1.22
  3. L1–312 JanRangers (A)xG 0.43–3.03
  4. L1–35 JanDundee FC (H)xG 2.00–1.49
  5. D1–12 JanHibernian (H)xG 0.96–2.27
  6. L0–429 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.06–4.68

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Position9th12th
Played2525
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠7–⁠116–⁠3–⁠16
Points28 (1.12 per game)21 (0.84 per game)
Expected Points per game1.311.11
Goals28–⁠4028–⁠48
xG per game1.40–⁠1.521.03–⁠1.53
Home: points, xG per game1.58, 1.91–⁠1.160.83, 1.12–⁠1.52
Away: points, xG per game0.69, 0.92–⁠1.850.85, 0.94–⁠1.53
ManagerDerek McInnes (101)Simo Valakari (18)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.23, 5thSt. Johnstone1.01, 12thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.35, 6thSt. Johnstone1.54, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock attack: 1.23St. Johnstone attack: 1.011.231.01St. JohnstoneKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock defence: 1.35St. Johnstone defence: 1.541.541.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−14%+9%−36%+20%
Counter-attacks−37%−13%−51%+12%
Set pieces+26%+19%−22%−2%
Penalties+13%−32%+13%−55%
Headersaverage+6%−31%+14%
Left side+6%−4%−31%+30%
Centre−9%+20%−40%+13%
Right side−4%+3%−20%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side+6%−5%Centre−9%+13%Right side−4%+30%Open play−14%+20%Counter-attacks−37%+12%Set pieces+26%−2%Headersaverage+14%

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−31%+3%Centre−40%+20%Right side−20%−4%Open play−36%+9%Counter-attacks−51%−13%Set pieces−22%+19%Headers−31%+6%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

1.40xG1.03
1.52xG against1.53
45%Possession53%
12.9Shots10.0
13.2Shots against14.0
3.8Shots on target3.1
2.0Big chances1.3
21.6Touches in the opposition box16.0
320Passes436
67%Pass accuracy78%
5.8Corners3.8
44%Field tilt45%
32.8Final-third entries36.8
10.3Box entries8.7
15.4Passes per defensive action15.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.421.52
Ahead141.631.36
Behind311.241.59

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level351.131.76
Ahead141.241.33
Behind410.861.40

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.262–3
16–300.190.213–6
31–450.160.232–7
46–600.170.255–7
61–750.300.237–7
76–900.350.339–10

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.212–6
16–300.100.302–11
31–450.210.205–6
46–600.170.256–9
61–750.130.195–6
76–900.300.388–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 18O'Hara 7Lyons 7Mayo 6Armstrong 4Mayo 13Wright 12Deas 12Findlay 9Ndaba 11Lyons 4Deas 3Armstrong 13Wright 3Murray 2Watson 13Murray 3Watkins 1Polworth 9Lyons 7Donnelly 7Kennedy 10Murray 6Ndaba 3Vassell 19Wales 4Cameron 2Watkins 15Anderson 5Watson 14-4-2 in 12 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (12), 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

St. Johnstone

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTRae 13Sinclair 10Fisher 2Mikulic 11Wright 10Neilson 10Sanders 21Kucheriavyi 1McClelland 1Cameron 12Douglas 1Wright 9Clark 7Neilson 2Holt 13Carey 8MacPhers… 3MacPhersonSprangler 19Clark 3Raymond 2Smith 14Essel 4Sidibeh 2Raymond 13Douglas 3Wright 3Kirk 11Sidibeh 10Kimpioka 18Clark 8Holt 13-5-2 in 7 of 25 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (7), 4-3-1-2 (7), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 November 2024St. Johnstone1–0KilmarnockxG 1.02–0.45
11 August 2024Kilmarnock0–3St. JohnstonexG 1.74–1.79
13 April 2024St. Johnstone0–2KilmarnockxG 1.22–3.51
23 December 2023Kilmarnock2–1St. JohnstonexG 1.37–1.37
1 November 2023St. Johnstone2–1KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.30
20 May 2023Kilmarnock0–1St. JohnstonexG 1.48–1.62

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 3, St. Johnstone won 8, and 1 was a draw. Goals 11–17 and xG 1.28–1.25 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson8823800.790.07
Kennedy11948410.190.32
Watkins161,403410.400.05
Wales7683210.250.16

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Clark181,450620.350.06
Carey101,047210.170.23
Sidibeh121,252220.250.11
Kimpioka191,667620.280.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.