Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 1–1 St. Mirren

Saturday 30 September 2023, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 7 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 6,124

Kilmarnock Lyons 19'

St. Mirren Magennis 31' (og)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Goals11
xG0.730.79
Expected Points1.231.38

Kilmarnock 28%Draw 39%St. Mirren 33%

Most likely score 0–0, 21%. Final score 1–1, 17%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%1%15%5%5%5%2%1%1%21%18%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTWatson on for Magennis, 34'Dallas on for Cameron, 67'Polworth on for Lyons, 78'Small on for McMenamin, 64'Olusanya on for Mandron, 70'Greive on for Kiltie, 83'Lyons 19'Magennis 31' (og)St. Mirren 0.79Kilmarnock 0.7300.250.50.7510153045607590HTWatson on for Magennis, 34'Dallas on for Cameron, 67'Polworth on for Lyons, 78'Small on for McMenamin, 64'Olusanya on for Mandron, 70'Greive on for Kiltie, 83'Lyons 19'Magennis 31' (og)0.790.73KilmarnockSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

0.73 −0.62xG0.79 −0.48
0.43 −0.87xG on target0.52 −1.06
12 −3Shots8 −3
2 −1.7Shots on target3 −1.0
0 −1.7Big chances1 −2.0
25 0Touches in the opposition box15 −4
54% +6Possession46% +3
371 +12Passes307 +2
65% −2Pass accuracy62% +1
64% +14Field tilt36% −6
38 0Final-third entries36 +6
18 +4Box entries10 0
8.6 −6Passes per defensive action12.6 −3
7 +0.7Corners6 +2.0
14 +1Tackles13 −2
10 +3.0Interceptions9 +0.5
9 −8Clearances29 +2
3 +0.2Saves1 −1.7
15 +2Fouls16 +5
1 +0.8Offsides3 +1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Kennedy 48', 0.14 xGPolworth 90+1', 0.10 xGWright 40', 0.08 xGFindlay 40', 0.05 xGLyons 52', 0.05 xGArmstrong 48', 0.04 xGLyons 52', 0.04 xGKennedy 90+1', 0.04 xGWright 21', 0.03 xGNdaba 42', 0.03 xGVassell 24', 0.02 xGLyons 19', 0.11 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals49%0.36 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.36 xG, 1 goal19%0.14 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals27%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals5%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Gogic 8', 0.33 xGKiltie 45+3', 0.14 xGMandron 44', 0.11 xGMandron 13', 0.07 xGMcMenamin 32', 0.04 xGMcMenamin 53', 0.04 xGMandron 5', 0.03 xGBaccus 45+3', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals84%0.66 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.66 xG, 0 goals8%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals9%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

0.50 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.44 6 shots, 0 goals
0.23 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.36 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
85 min (88%) · Kilmarnock 0.68, St. Mirren 0.79 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
12 min (12%) · Kilmarnock 0.05, St. Mirren 0.00 xG

Line-ups

1541781116103918DennisMayoWrightFindlayLyonsArmstrongMagennisKennedyNdabaVassellCameronGoalOwn goalYellow card78'34'67'Kilmarnock 3-1-4-2Derek McInnes122131823176310911HemmingFraserGogicDunneStrainBaccusO'HaraTanserMcMenaminMandronKiltieYellow cardYellow card64'70'83'St. Mirren 3-4-3Stephen Robinson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 34' Watson for Magennis · yellow card 90+4'
  • 67' Dallas for Cameron
  • 78' Polworth for Lyons

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 64' Small for McMenamin
  • 70' Olusanya for Mandron · yellow card 85'
  • 83' Greive for Kiltie

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0440
MayoCB900.000.0700.20147
WrightCB900.110.0000.0724
FindlayCB900.050.0200.0454
LyonsDM7810.200.0900.0941
ArmstrongRWB900.040.1330.25131
MagennisCM340.000.0710.0620
KennedyCM900.180.1010.20112
NdabaLWB900.030.0100.0477
VassellST900.020.0520.1434
Cameron ST670.000.030−0.0531
Watson MF560.000.051−0.0115
DallasFW230.000.0100.0301
PolworthMF120.100.0100.0110

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0111
FraserCB900.000.0100.0337
GogicCB900.330.0000.04511
DunneCB900.000.0100.06311
Strain RWB900.000.4330.2674
Baccus CM900.030.0410.0437
O'HaraCM900.000.0600.0722
TanserLWB900.000.0210.0575
McMenaminRW640.080.2210.3180
MandronST700.210.050−0.0105
KiltieLW830.140.0100.0331
SmallFW260.000.0000.0230
Olusanya FW200.000.000−0.0101
GreiveFW70.000.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Wright: 3 passesDennis and Cameron: 3 passesMayo and Magennis: 3 passesFindlay and Lyons: 3 passesFindlay and Magennis: 3 passesFindlay and Kennedy: 3 passesMagennis and Cameron: 3 passesKennedy and Cameron: 3 passesWright and Findlay: 4 passesLyons and Armstrong: 4 passesLyons and Magennis: 4 passesArmstrong and Cameron: 4 passesKennedy and Ndaba: 4 passesWright and Mayo: 5 passesNdaba and Cameron: 5 passesDennis and Findlay: 6 passesMagennis and Kennedy: 6 passesMagennis and Ndaba: 6 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 7 passesDennis: 13 completed passesWright: 7 completed passesMayo: 6 completed passesFindlay: 14 completed passesLyons: 10 completed passesArmstrong: 7 completed passesMagennis: 12 completed passesKennedy: 11 completed passesNdaba: 14 completed passesCameron: 9 completed passesVassell: 0 completed passes1451781116103189DennisWrightMayoFindlayLyonsArmstrongMagennisKennedyNdabaCameronVassellStarters until 34' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

Hemming and Gogic: 3 passesGogic and Baccus: 3 passesGogic and Mandron: 3 passesDunne and Kiltie: 3 passesFraser and O'Hara: 3 passesBaccus and O'Hara: 3 passesDunne and Tanser: 4 passesStrain and Mandron: 4 passesTanser and Mandron: 4 passesTanser and Kiltie: 4 passesBaccus and McMenamin: 4 passesGogic and Strain: 5 passesFraser and Baccus: 5 passesFraser and McMenamin: 5 passesBaccus and Mandron: 5 passesO'Hara and Mandron: 5 passesGogic and O'Hara: 6 passesStrain and Baccus: 7 passesStrain and McMenamin: 7 passesTanser and O'Hara: 7 passesFraser and Strain: 8 passesGogic and Fraser: 10 passesGogic and Dunne: 12 passesHemming: 3 completed passesGogic: 26 completed passesDunne: 16 completed passesFraser: 22 completed passesStrain: 20 completed passesTanser: 12 completed passesBaccus: 17 completed passesO'Hara: 21 completed passesMcMenamin: 12 completed passesMandron: 10 completed passesKiltie: 6 completed passes113182223317610911HemmingGogicDunneFraserStrainTanserBaccusO'HaraMcMenaminMandronKiltieStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WrightMayo9
MayoArmstrong8
KennedyNdaba7
FindlayNdaba7
MayoCameron7

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
GogicDunne8
FraserStrain5
StrainBaccus5
GogicFraser5
FraserGogic5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

2−2.05−1.56−0.35+1.27+1.05−3.85−2.36−2.01−3.78+0.77+2.23−3.84−1.84−1.06+2.83−0.74+0.28+4.01−1.72−0.50−1.04+2.22−0.70−0.51+0.71+0.21+0.50−0.56−5.72−6.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

St. Mirren

2−3.38−1.224+9.714+6.36+1.28−1.08−0.81−5.321+12.09+0.310+4.36−1.24+0.55−3.012+5.30−4.23+0.21−1.51−2.85+0.82+0.51−1.00−0.31−0.73+0.50−1.01+0.83+2.31+0.80−1.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.050.010.020.030.020.030.01−0.010.030.010.090.080.010.07−0.010.070.040.040.040.060.100.010.130.16LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.010.020.030.010.010.040.040.050.030.040.040.170.120.01−0.060.30LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackKilmarnock1.16 → 1.15St. Mirren1.10 → 1.10Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.35 → 1.34St. Mirren1.39 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six44%40%−4
11th6%8%+2
Bottom4%4%0
St. Mirren
Top six67%68%+1
11th3%3%0
Bottom1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (30 September 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.491.02
Win48%25%
Expected Points1.701.03
Clean sheet36%22%

Kilmarnock 48%Draw 27%St. Mirren 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 50%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%8%4%1%6%2%9%9%5%2%4%5%2%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 September 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Mirren win
Kilmarnock
Top six44%52%40%33%
11th6%5%8%9%
Bottom4%3%4%5%
St. Mirren
Top six67%59%68%80%
11th3%4%3%1%
Bottom1%2%1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. D2–223 SepDundee FC (A)xG 3.56–1.49
  2. D2–216 SepHibernian (H)xG 0.83–0.92
  3. L0–12 SepRoss County (H)xG 1.42–0.72
  4. L1–226 AugMotherwell (A)xG 1.05–2.15
  5. D0–013 AugHearts (A)xG 0.73–0.39
  6. W1–05 AugRangers (H)xG 0.52–1.36

St. Mirren

  1. W1–023 SepHearts (H)xG 1.59–1.19
  2. W1–016 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.55–1.18
  3. D1–12 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.67–1.45
  4. D2–227 AugAberdeen (H)xG 1.97–0.87
  5. W2–112 AugDundee FC (H)xG 1.28–2.31
  6. W3–26 AugHibernian (A)xG 1.55–1.41

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Position8th2nd
Played66
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠3–⁠24–⁠2–⁠0
Points6 (1.00 per game)14 (2.33 per game)
Expected Points per game1.461.26
Goals6–⁠710–⁠6
xG per game1.35–⁠1.171.27–⁠1.40
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 0.92–⁠1.002.33, 1.61–⁠1.46
Away: points, xG per game0.67, 1.78–⁠1.342.33, 0.92–⁠1.35
ManagerDerek McInnes (44)Stephen Robinson (1)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackKilmarnock1.16, 7thSt. Mirren1.10, 8thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.35, 6thSt. Mirren1.39, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepKilmarnock attack: 1.16St. Mirren attack: 1.101.161.10St. MirrenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepKilmarnock defence: 1.35St. Mirren defence: 1.391.391.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−25%−26%−24%−11%
Counter-attacks−3%−100%+62%−29%
Set pieces+21%+36%−25%+9%
Penalties+124%+12%+124%+124%
Headers+44%−37%+40%−27%
Left side+26%−64%−39%+8%
Centre−33%+10%−29%−1%
Right side−3%−15%+21%−36%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+26%−36%Centre−33%−1%Right side−3%+8%Open play−25%−11%Counter-attacks−3%−29%Set pieces+21%+9%Headers+44%−27%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−39%−15%Centre−29%+10%Right side+21%−64%Open play−24%−26%Counter-attacks+62%−100%Set pieces−25%+36%Headers+40%−37%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.35xG1.27
1.17xG against1.40
48%Possession43%
14.8Shots11.0
11.3Shots against11.5
3.7Shots on target4.0
1.7Big chances3.0
24.5Touches in the opposition box18.5
359Passes305
67%Pass accuracy60%
6.3Corners4.0
51%Field tilt41%
38.5Final-third entries29.5
13.8Box entries10.2
14.8Passes per defensive action15.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level561.151.08
Ahead140.782.14
Behind202.300.77

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.360.82
Ahead470.861.98
Behind36.550.00

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.101–1
16–300.330.211–1
31–450.240.140–0
46–600.120.120–3
61–750.180.172–0
76–900.320.432–2

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.360.043–0
16–300.190.121–0
31–450.150.211–1
46–600.280.132–0
61–750.110.340–2
76–900.170.563–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 6Mayo 6Deas 5Wright 2Findlay 5Armstrong 6Lyons 6Watkins 1Watson 4Deas 1Magennis 6Kennedy 3Ndaba 2Davies 1Kennedy 3Vassell 3Watkins 5Findlay 13-5-2 in 3 of 6 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (3), 4-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 6Fraser 6Gogic 6Taylor 6Strain 6Baccus 5Boyd-Munce 4O'Hara 3Tanser 6McMenamin 6Olusanya 4Mandron 2Kiltie 63-4-3 in 3 of 6 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 3-4-2-1 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
22 April 2023St. Mirren0–2KilmarnockxG 0.51–2.32
2 January 2023Kilmarnock0–0St. MirrenxG 0.70–0.35
15 October 2022St. Mirren0–0KilmarnockxG 0.68–1.13
12 May 2021Kilmarnock3–3St. MirrenxG 1.33–1.21
6 February 2021St. Mirren2–0KilmarnockxG 1.56–0.49
2 January 2021Kilmarnock1–1St. MirrenxG 0.97–0.52

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 2, St. Mirren won 1, and 4 were drawn. Goals 7–6 and xG 1.08–0.76 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong6523220.530.50
Kennedy6539000.230.23
Lyons6498100.130.07
Deas6496000.050.08

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Tanser6540110.040.35
Strain6533110.210.11
Kiltie6478110.260.03
McMenamin6459000.120.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.