Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Celtic 0–2 Hearts

Saturday 16 December 2023, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 18 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 58,816

Hearts Shankland 15', Kingsley 30'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticHearts
Goals02
xG1.600.34
Expected Points2.330.43

Celtic 70%Draw 24%Hearts 6%

Most likely score 1–0, 23%. Final score 0–2, 1%.

Hearts goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+13%5%10%1%7%1%10%4%3%1%23%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMaeda on for M. Johnston, Oh on for Turnbull, and Ralston on for A. Johnston, 46'Bernabéi on for Palma, 62'Forrest on for Taylor, 71'Sibbick on for Kingsley, 46'Vargas on for Denholm, 65'McKay on for Forrest, 66'Tait on for Grant, 85'Halkett on for Atkinson, 90+1'Shankland 15'Kingsley 30'Celtic 1.60Hearts 0.3400.511.520153045607590HTMaeda on for M. Johnston, Oh on for Turnbull, and Ralston on for A. Johnston, 46'Bernabéi on for Palma, 62'Forrest on for Taylor, 71'Sibbick on for Kingsley, 46'Vargas on for Denholm, 65'McKay on for Forrest, 66'Tait on for Grant, 85'Halkett on for Atkinson, 90+1'Shankland 15'Kingsley 30'1.600.34CelticHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticHearts

1.60 −1.30xG0.34 −0.76
0.68 −2.38xG on target0.97 −0.14
22 +1Shots5 −8
5 −3.2Shots on target2 −2.1
2 −2.3Big chances1 0.0
38 −7Touches in the opposition box2 −25
77% +8Possession23% −34
652 −16Passes204 −264
85% 0Pass accuracy54% −22
91% +12Field tilt9% −46
82 +8Final-third entries11 −32
19 −5Box entries1 −12
5.8 −5Passes per defensive action33.5 +21
18 +8.8Corners3 −4.4
17 +2Tackles25 +12
6 +0.8Interceptions12 +5.7
19 +4Clearances44 +23
0 −1.8Saves5 +2.5
12 +2.7Fouls3 −8.9
5 +3.2Offsides1 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Palma 40', 0.33 xGOh 75', 0.19 xGScales 65', 0.13 xGFuruhashi 45+3', 0.12 xGFuruhashi 58', 0.12 xGFuruhashi 84', 0.11 xGBernabéi 90+3', 0.10 xGMaeda 74', 0.07 xGScales 90+5', 0.06 xGA. Johnston 22', 0.05 xGCarter-Vickers 12', 0.04 xGPalma 41', 0.04 xGPalma 61', 0.04 xGTaylor 12', 0.03 xGO'Riley 25', 0.03 xGTaylor 34', 0.03 xGOh 90+3', 0.03 xGPalma 20', 0.02 xGTurnbull 28', 0.02 xGTurnbull 36', 0.02 xGMaeda 80', 0.02 xGO'Riley 81', 0.02 xG33%0.53 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.53 xG, 0 goals46%0.74 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.74 xG, 0 goals3%0.05 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals12%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals6%0.09 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Grant 68', 0.05 xGKent 63', 0.04 xGAtkinson 50', 0.02 xGShankland 15', 0.16 xG, goalKingsley 30', 0.07 xG, goal47%0.16 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.16 xG, 1 goal12%0.04 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals41%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticHearts

1.24 14 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.11 3 shots, 0 goals
0.36 8 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.23 2 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
15 min (15%) · Celtic 0.07, Hearts 0.16 xG
Hearts ahead
83 min (85%) · Celtic 1.53, Hearts 0.18 xG

Line-ups

1220533342149087HartA. JohnstonCarter-VickersScalesTaylorO'RileyMcGregorTurnbullM. JohnstonFuruhashiPalma46'71'46'46'62'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers28321513226719917ClarkKingsleyKentRowlesAtkinsonDenholmBaningimeGrantCochraneShanklandForrestGoalGoal46'90+1'65'85'66'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Ralston for A. Johnston
  • 46' Maeda for M. Johnston · yellow card 52'
  • 46' Oh for Turnbull
  • 62' Bernabéi for Palma
  • 71' Forrest for Taylor

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Sibbick for Kingsley
  • 65' Vargas for Denholm
  • 66' McKay for Forrest
  • 85' Tait for Grant
  • 90+1' Halkett for Atkinson

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0102
A. JohnstonRB460.050.0410.1050
Carter-VickersCB900.040.0400.19107
ScalesCB900.190.0510.171012
TaylorLB710.050.0530.0646
O'RileyCM900.040.2230.0553
McGregorCM900.000.2020.2462
TurnbullCM460.040.1810.0002
M. JohnstonRW460.000.0100.0410
FuruhashiST900.350.0000.0200
PalmaLW620.430.1540.1274
RalstonDF440.000.1030.23102
Maeda FW440.090.010−0.0121
OhFW440.220.0200.0100
BernabéiDF280.100.0800.0961
ForrestFW190.000.0910.1171

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0011
KingsleyCB4610.070.000−0.0104
KentCB900.040.0000.00010
RowlesCB900.000.0000.04514
AtkinsonRWB900.020.0510.09316
DenholmCM650.000.0210.0013
BaningimeCM900.000.0000.0015
GrantCM8510.050.091−0.0204
CochraneLWB900.000.0100.03216
ShanklandST9010.160.0300.0203
ForrestST660.000.0200.0620
SibbickDF440.000.0000.0007
VargasMF250.000.0110.0200
McKayFW240.000.0000.0110
TaitMF50.000.0000.0001
HalkettDF00.000.0000.0002

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

A. Johnston and Scales: 4 passesA. Johnston and Taylor: 4 passesScales and Palma: 4 passesCarter-Vickers and Taylor: 4 passesCarter-Vickers and M. Johnston: 4 passesHart and Scales: 5 passesA. Johnston and O'Riley: 5 passesA. Johnston and Palma: 5 passesTurnbull and Palma: 5 passesO'Riley and Turnbull: 6 passesO'Riley and M. Johnston: 6 passesO'Riley and McGregor: 7 passesMcGregor and Palma: 7 passesHart and Carter-Vickers: 8 passesA. Johnston and Turnbull: 8 passesA. Johnston and McGregor: 9 passesScales and Turnbull: 9 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 9 passesScales and McGregor: 11 passesTaylor and Turnbull: 12 passesTaylor and McGregor: 14 passesScales and Taylor: 17 passesScales and Carter-Vickers: 22 passesA. Johnston and M. Johnston: 23 passesTaylor and Palma: 24 passesA. Johnston and Carter-Vickers: 36 passesHart: 9 completed passesA. Johnston: 47 completed passesScales: 42 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 48 completed passesTaylor: 38 completed passesO'Riley: 21 completed passesMcGregor: 32 completed passesTurnbull: 23 completed passesM. Johnston: 12 completed passesFuruhashi: 1 completed passesPalma: 22 completed passes1252033342149087HartA. JohnstonScalesCarter-VickersTaylorO'RileyMcGregorTurnbullM. JohnstonFuruhashiPalmaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hearts

Clark and Kent: 3 passesRowles and Baningime: 3 passesCochrane and Grant: 3 passesCochrane and Forrest: 3 passesCochrane and Shankland: 3 passesBaningime and Grant: 3 passesGrant and Shankland: 3 passesKent and Kingsley: 5 passesRowles and Grant: 6 passesKingsley and Atkinson: 7 passesClark: 8 completed passesRowles: 10 completed passesKent: 7 completed passesKingsley: 8 completed passesAtkinson: 7 completed passesCochrane: 8 completed passesBaningime: 8 completed passesGrant: 8 completed passesDenholm: 5 completed passesForrest: 3 completed passesShankland: 4 completed passes28152313196722179ClarkRowlesKentKingsleyAtkinsonCochraneBaningimeGrantDenholmForrestShanklandStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesCarter-Vickers23
Carter-VickersA. Johnston23
Carter-VickersScales22
TaylorPalma18
McGregorTaylor18

Hearts

FromToPasses
KingsleyAtkinson4
RowlesGrant4
ClarkShankland4
KentKingsley4
RowlesBaningime4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

0−3.05+1.27−1.95−1.35+0.37+0.84−0.35+1.66−0.310+2.96+1.22−1.53−0.86+0.18+0.53−1.21−2.21−1.44+0.97+1.71−3.04+1.21−0.87+4.54−0.34+3.22+1.61+0.40−0.80−1.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Hearts

5−0.315+8.034+19.614+6.410+5.214+6.39+3.54−0.66−1.416+9.82−3.73−2.51−3.82−3.91−5.30−4.41−3.70−3.71−2.43−2.22+0.50−1.60−1.12+0.93+0.84+3.20−1.10−0.60−0.80−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.020.030.010.010.030.020.060.060.060.030.080.100.070.120.060.040.170.020.070.200.02−0.15−0.040.060.28LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.040.010.010.040.010.05−0.030.010.01−0.010.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackCeltic2.37 → 2.31Hearts1.21 → 1.19Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.75 → 0.75Hearts1.32 → 1.30

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title64%49%−15
Hearts
Top six81%92%+11
11th1%<1%−1
Rangers
Title36%51%+15

From the forecast before the match (16 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticHearts
Expected goals2.940.63
Win84%5%
Expected Points2.620.26
Clean sheet53%5%

Celtic 84%Draw 12%Hearts 5%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 44%.

Hearts goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+3%2%8%5%2%8%2%8%2%6%2%5%3%1%4%3%12%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawHearts win
Celtic
Title64%66%55%49%
Hearts
Top six81%80%85%92%
11th1%1%1%<1%
Rangers
Title36%34%45%51%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. L1–210 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.68–2.06
  2. W4–16 DecHibernian (H)xG 4.10–1.50
  3. W3–13 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.53–1.36
  4. D1–125 NovMotherwell (H)xG 3.25–0.48
  5. W6–012 NovAberdeen (H)xG 4.67–0.18
  6. W3–04 NovRoss County (A)xG 3.40–0.26

Hearts

  1. L1–29 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.33–1.74
  2. L0–16 DecRangers (H)xG 1.03–2.53
  3. W1–02 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.73–1.16
  4. W1–025 NovSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.44–0.85
  5. W2–111 NovMotherwell (A)xG 2.08–1.10
  6. W1–01 NovLivingston (H)xG 1.91–0.21

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticHearts
Position1st6th
Played1716
Won, drawn, lost13–⁠3–⁠17–⁠2–⁠7
Points42 (2.47 per game)23 (1.44 per game)
Expected Points per game2.381.24
Goals43–⁠1215–⁠15
xG per game2.90–⁠0.991.10–⁠1.49
Home: points, xG per game2.50, 3.50–⁠0.821.38, 1.18–⁠1.41
Away: points, xG per game2.44, 2.37–⁠1.141.50, 1.02–⁠1.56
ManagerBrendan Rodgers (17)Steven Naismith (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackCeltic2.37, 1stHearts1.21, 4thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.75, 2ndHearts1.32, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecCeltic attack: 2.37Hearts attack: 1.212.371.21HeartsCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecCeltic defence: 0.75Hearts defence: 1.321.320.75

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+121%−11%−10%+2%
Counter-attacks+198%−62%−30%−10%
Set pieces+23%−32%−10%+13%
Penalties+202%−100%−100%+43%
Headers+23%−20%−40%−7%
Left side+108%−8%−6%average
Centre+85%−16%−19%−1%
Right side+124%−42%average+20%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+108%+20%Centre+85%−1%Right side+124%averageOpen play+121%+2%Counter-attacks+198%−10%Set pieces+23%+13%Headers+23%−7%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side−6%−42%Centre−19%−16%Right sideaverage−8%Open play−10%−11%Counter-attacks−30%−62%Set pieces−10%−32%Headers−40%−20%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticHearts

2.90xG1.10
0.99xG against1.49
70%Possession57%
20.9Shots13.4
8.0Shots against13.3
8.2Shots on target4.1
4.3Big chances1.0
45.3Touches in the opposition box26.8
668Passes468
85%Pass accuracy76%
9.2Corners7.4
79%Field tilt55%
73.6Final-third entries42.8
23.7Box entries12.9
10.6Passes per defensive action12.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level442.620.72
Ahead443.231.31
Behind22.130.07

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.201.13
Ahead280.881.67
Behind201.222.01

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.350.125–1
16–300.540.097–1
31–450.300.216–1
46–600.520.125–1
61–750.340.214–4
76–900.850.2516–4

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.172–2
16–300.240.294–2
31–450.060.200–1
46–600.150.371–2
61–750.310.126–3
76–900.270.352–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 16Bain 1A. Johnston 13Ralston 4Carter-Vickers 10Lagerbielke 4Phillips 3Scales 15Nawrocki 2Taylor 17O'Riley 16Bernardo 2McGregor 17Iwata 2Turnbull 8Hatate 4Holm 2Yang 5Maeda 5Abada 3Furuhashi 14Oh 3Palma 9Maeda 6Yang 24-3-3 in every start

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTClark 16Kingsley 6Atkinson 5Sibbick 4Kent 16Rowles 16Kingsley 7Boyce 3Cochrane 2Nieuwenhof 9Baningime 1Offiah 1Devlin 7Lowry 5Grant 4Oda 6Forrest 5Vargas 1Baningime 7Boyce 3Shankland 2Cochrane 7Vargas 4Lowry 3Shankland 13Vargas 1Tagawa 14-2-3-1 in 8 of 16 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-5-2 (7), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
22 October 2023Hearts1–4CelticxG 0.73–4.01
7 May 2023Hearts0–2CelticxG 0.28–1.39
8 March 2023Celtic3–1HeartsxG 2.08–0.62
22 October 2022Hearts3–4CelticxG 2.90–2.82
21 August 2022Celtic2–0HeartsxG 2.55–0.29
7 May 2022Celtic4–1HeartsxG 3.57–0.71

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 8, Hearts won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 23–9 and xG 2.50–0.98 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Turnbull8600700.790.37
Oh3486500.980.05
Palma9741560.470.45
Furuhashi141,135630.650.13

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce7631130.360.20
Shankland161,440700.360.16
Lowry9671010.110.25
Cochrane9810020.070.25

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.