Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hearts 2–0 Ross County

Saturday 15 March 2025, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 30 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Calum Scott · Attendance 18,648

Hearts Kabangu 26', Grant 89'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsRoss County
Goals20
xG1.730.29
Expected Points2.560.27

Hearts 80%Draw 17%Ross County 3%

Most likely score 2–0, 27%. Final score 2–0, 27%.

Ross County goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%2%8%9%1%12%4%3%24%27%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTGrant on for Kartum and Nieuwenhof on for Spittal, 66'Drammeh on for Shankland and Forrest on for Wilson, 78'Hale on for Kenneh and White on for Chilvers, 64'Samuel on for Phillips and Grieves on for Lopata, 75'Robesten on for Harmon, 81'Kabangu 26'Grant 89'Hearts 1.73Ross County 0.2900.511.520153045607590HTGrant on for Kartum and Nieuwenhof on for Spittal, 66'Drammeh on for Shankland and Forrest on for Wilson, 78'Hale on for Kenneh and White on for Chilvers, 64'Samuel on for Phillips and Grieves on for Lopata, 75'Robesten on for Harmon, 81'Kabangu 26'Grant 89'1.730.29HeartsRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsRoss County

1.73 +0.38xG0.29 −0.78
2.15 +0.79xG on target0.03 −1.00
9 −4Shots5 −5
4 −0.3Shots on target1 −2.4
4 +1.8Big chances0 −1.2
21 −4Touches in the opposition box6 −10
62% +8Possession38% −1
507 +67Passes307 +22
80% +3Pass accuracy62% −2
70% +13Field tilt30% −6
35 −6Final-third entries24 −5
16 +4.1Box entries5 −2.2
13.3 0Passes per defensive action13.2 −4
6 −0.4Corners6 +1.3
19 +1Tackles19 +2
11 +2.2Interceptions14 +3.9
33 +5Clearances36 −4
1 −1.6Saves2 −1.1
3 −8Fouls10 0
4 +2.4Offsides2 +0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Drammeh 88', 0.54 xGDrammeh 81', 0.11 xGWilson 32', 0.10 xGKartum 61', 0.09 xGKabangu 70', 0.07 xGKartum 42', 0.04 xGSpittal 21', 0.01 xGGrant 89', 0.62 xG, goalKabangu 26', 0.15 xG, goal36%0.62 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.62 xG, 1 goal50%0.87 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.87 xG, 1 goal11%0.19 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

Phillips 43', 0.12 xGRandall 17', 0.07 xGPhillips 55', 0.06 xGChilvers 29', 0.04 xGRandall 77', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals24%0.07 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals14%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals59%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals3%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsRoss County

1.61 7 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.17 3 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.12 1 shot, 0 goals
0.13 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.01 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
26 min (29%) · Hearts 0.16, Ross County 0.07 xG
Hearts ahead
64 min (71%) · Hearts 1.57, Ross County 0.23 xG

Line-ups

1352315292761692119GordonForresterNeilsonSteinwenderPenriceKartumBaningimeSpittalShanklandWilsonKabanguGoal66'66'78'78'Hearts 4-3-1-2Neil Critchley18122019482342161011AmissahTomkinsonLopataCampbellWrightRandallNisbetKennehHarmonChilversPhillipsYellow cardYellow card75'64'81'64'75'Ross County 3-5-2Don Cowie

Hearts substitutes

  • 66' Nieuwenhof for Spittal
  • 66' Grant for Kartum · goal 89'
  • 78' Forrest for Wilson
  • 78' Drammeh for Shankland · 1 assist

Ross County substitutes

  • 64' White for Chilvers
  • 64' Hale for Kenneh
  • 75' Grieves for Lopata
  • 75' Samuel for Phillips
  • 81' Robesten for Harmon

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0211
ForresterRB900.000.0810.0775
NeilsonCB900.000.0100.0965
SteinwenderCB900.000.0200.13925
PenriceLB900.000.2010.3244
KartumCM660.120.1000.1032
BaningimeCM9010.000.2810.0667
SpittalCM660.010.0600.0443
ShanklandAM780.000.2240.0643
WilsonST780.100.040−0.0700
KabanguST9010.220.0100.0000
NieuwenhofMF240.000.0000.0005
GrantMF2410.620.0200.0443
ForrestMF120.000.0710.0400
DrammehFW1210.650.4110.1821

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AmissahGK900.000.0100.0672
TomkinsonCB900.000.0000.03314
Lopata CB750.000.0000.01313
CampbellCB900.000.0000.0015
WrightRWB900.000.0110.0128
Randall CM900.080.0100.0338
NisbetCM900.000.041−0.0917
KennehCM640.000.0110.0327
HarmonLWB810.000.010−0.0233
ChilversST640.040.0400.0633
PhillipsST750.170.0100.0120
WhiteFW260.000.0000.0100
HaleFW260.000.0000.0200
GrievesMF150.000.0000.0000
SamuelFW150.000.0000.0000
RobestenFW90.000.0000.0111

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Kartum and Wilson: 6 passesGordon and Forrester: 7 passesSteinwender and Wilson: 7 passesPenrice and Baningime: 7 passesBaningime and Wilson: 7 passesGordon and Neilson: 8 passesForrester and Wilson: 8 passesNeilson and Shankland: 8 passesPenrice and Kabangu: 8 passesBaningime and Spittal: 8 passesSteinwender and Shankland: 9 passesForrester and Kartum: 10 passesSteinwender and Baningime: 10 passesNeilson and Penrice: 10 passesBaningime and Kartum: 10 passesSteinwender and Kartum: 12 passesPenrice and Shankland: 13 passesForrester and Steinwender: 15 passesNeilson and Baningime: 15 passesNeilson and Spittal: 15 passesGordon and Steinwender: 16 passesKartum and Shankland: 17 passesPenrice and Spittal: 19 passesForrester and Shankland: 20 passesSteinwender and Neilson: 36 passesGordon: 21 completed passesForrester: 40 completed passesSteinwender: 60 completed passesNeilson: 53 completed passesPenrice: 36 completed passesBaningime: 36 completed passesSpittal: 27 completed passesKartum: 29 completed passesShankland: 39 completed passesKabangu: 10 completed passesWilson: 17 completed passes1351523296162791921GordonForresterSteinwenderNeilsonPenriceBaningimeSpittalKartumShanklandKabanguWilsonStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Ross County

Wright and Phillips: 3 passesHarmon and Randall: 3 passesChilvers and Phillips: 3 passesTomkinson and Kenneh: 4 passesCampbell and Chilvers: 4 passesWright and Kenneh: 4 passesNisbet and Randall: 5 passesNisbet and Chilvers: 5 passesAmissah and Lopata: 6 passesAmissah and Tomkinson: 6 passesCampbell and Harmon: 6 passesHarmon and Chilvers: 6 passesLopata and Tomkinson: 7 passesWright and Chilvers: 7 passesKenneh and Chilvers: 7 passesAmissah and Campbell: 9 passesTomkinson and Wright: 9 passesHarmon and Nisbet: 11 passesAmissah: 14 completed passesLopata: 13 completed passesTomkinson: 15 completed passesCampbell: 14 completed passesWright: 15 completed passesHarmon: 13 completed passesNisbet: 17 completed passesKenneh: 12 completed passesRandall: 8 completed passesChilvers: 13 completed passesPhillips: 6 completed passes18201219416234281011AmissahLopataTomkinsonCampbellWrightHarmonNisbetKennehRandallChilversPhillipsStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
NeilsonSteinwender20
SteinwenderNeilson16
ForresterShankland13
PenriceSpittal13
BaningimeNeilson11

Ross County

FromToPasses
WrightTomkinson9
NisbetHarmon7
LopataAmissah6
CampbellLopata6
TomkinsonWright6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

8+4.03−2.54−2.65+0.413+6.28+1.512+6.25−2.23−4.55−0.84−0.39+5.94−1.65−2.32−2.74+0.71−2.04+0.22−2.52−0.30−1.81−0.21−1.02−0.71+0.40−0.30−0.71+0.63+2.05−8.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Ross County

8+2.513+5.74−5.64−2.280.010+2.78+1.06−2.32−6.25−0.43−1.44+0.34−0.25−0.53−0.77+4.24+2.37+4.26+2.65+2.30−1.80−1.22+1.15+2.70−0.80−0.20−0.40−0.11+0.38−11.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.020.010.020.010.040.040.050.010.010.060.030.010.020.070.070.060.030.040.120.130.20LessMore

Ross County

0.010.010.030.020.010.010.01−0.010.020.010.030.03−0.01−0.020.02−0.07−0.030.040.05LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.40 → 1.43Ross County1.10 → 1.07Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.25 → 1.22Ross County1.50 → 1.53

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six45%59%+14
11th<1%<1%0
Ross County
Top six13%4%−9
11th5%6%+1
Motherwell
Top six36%33%−3
St. Mirren
Top six14%12%−2

From the forecast before the match (15 March 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsRoss County
Expected goals1.830.93
Win58%18%
Expected Points1.980.79
Clean sheet40%16%

Hearts 58%Draw 24%Ross County 18%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 51%.

Ross County goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%5%3%5%2%5%1%6%6%3%3%3%1%1%1%11%11%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 15 March 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawRoss County win
Hearts
Top six45%59%32%14%
11th<1%<1%1%1%
Ross County
Top six13%4%14%38%
11th5%6%4%1%
Motherwell
Top six36%33%41%37%
St. Mirren
Top six14%12%17%18%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–22 MarHibernian (A)xG 0.69–0.61
  2. W3–126 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.34–1.17
  3. W2–123 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.18–2.02
  4. L1–316 FebRangers (H)xG 2.61–1.58
  5. W6–01 FebDundee FC (A)xG 3.06–0.37
  6. W3–225 JanKilmarnock (H)xG 2.51–1.05

Ross County

  1. W1–01 MarKilmarnock (H)xG 1.10–2.52
  2. L0–126 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.26–1.26
  3. W3–122 FebDundee FC (H)xG 3.92–0.66
  4. W3–015 FebMotherwell (A)xG 1.16–0.75
  5. L0–42 FebRangers (A)xG 0.12–3.47
  6. D1–125 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.78–0.69

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsRoss County
Position7th8th
Played2929
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠6–⁠139–⁠8–⁠12
Points36 (1.24 per game)35 (1.21 per game)
Expected Points per game1.361.17
Goals41–⁠4031–⁠49
xG per game1.35–⁠1.391.07–⁠1.62
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 1.45–⁠1.291.33, 1.40–⁠1.21
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.26–⁠1.471.07, 0.72–⁠2.07
ManagerNeil Critchley (20)Don Cowie (44)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.40, 4thRoss County1.10, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.25, 4thRoss County1.50, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarHearts attack: 1.40Ross County attack: 1.101.401.10Ross CountyHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarHearts defence: 1.25Ross County defence: 1.501.501.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−2%−12%−48%+32%
Counter-attacks+5%−7%−23%−14%
Set pieces+10%+6%−8%−13%
Penalties−78%+33%+78%+11%
Headers−4%+21%−45%+6%
Left side+17%−3%−19%+8%
Centre−3%−5%−34%+15%
Right sideaverage−12%−47%+21%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRoss County concededLeft side+17%+21%Centre−3%+15%Right sideaverage+8%Open play−2%+32%Counter-attacks+5%−14%Set pieces+10%−13%Headers−4%+6%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdHearts concededLeft side−19%−12%Centre−34%−5%Right side−47%−3%Open play−48%−12%Counter-attacks−23%−7%Set pieces−8%+6%Headers−45%+21%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsRoss County

1.35xG1.07
1.39xG against1.62
54%Possession39%
13.0Shots10.3
11.0Shots against15.2
4.3Shots on target3.4
2.2Big chances1.2
25.1Touches in the opposition box15.6
440Passes285
76%Pass accuracy64%
6.4Corners4.7
57%Field tilt36%
41.0Final-third entries28.9
11.9Box entries7.2
13.0Passes per defensive action16.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.311.50
Ahead241.441.20
Behind261.341.38

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.111.41
Ahead200.981.25
Behind261.092.29

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.176–5
16–300.170.185–4
31–450.160.235–6
46–600.230.308–8
61–750.200.188–8
76–900.400.329–9

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.192–4
16–300.150.204–6
31–450.230.345–13
46–600.180.238–5
61–750.130.272–5
76–900.250.4110–16

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 27Clark 2Oyegoke 11Forrester 10Taylor 6Kent 12Halkett 10Steinwender 4Rowles 20McCart 7Kingsley 2Penrice 23Kingsley 3Grant 1Devlin 17Baningime 11Penrice 1Boateng 13Grant 8Spittal 3Drammeh 9Forrest 5Baningime 3Shankland 12Grant 5Boyce 3Spittal 18Forrest 3Kabangu 2Shankland 11Wilson 10Vargas 44-2-3-1 in 14 of 29 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (14), 4-4-2 (6), 4-3-1-2 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTLaidlaw 15Amissah 11Hamilton 3Wright 24Tomkinson 6Efete 2Lopata 23Allardice 2Leak 14Campbell 12Nightingale 3Brown 15Efete 7Wright 4Nisbet 13Kenneh 7Harmon 6Randall 24Allardice 3White 2Chilvers 17Denholm 5Loturi 2Harmon 11Nisbet 5Campbell 4White 14Phillips 5Brophy 3Hale 22Chilvers 6Nisbet 23-5-2 in 9 of 29 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (9), 3-4-1-2 (8), 3-5-1-1 (6), 3-4-3 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 December 2024Ross County2–2HeartsxG 1.40–1.06
28 September 2024Hearts1–1Ross CountyxG 1.94–0.84
16 March 2024Ross County2–1HeartsxG 1.74–1.27
30 December 2023Hearts2–2Ross CountyxG 1.87–1.54
30 September 2023Ross County0–1HeartsxG 0.40–0.98
22 April 2023Hearts6–1Ross CountyxG 3.68–1.59

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 5, Ross County won 1, and 6 were drawn. Goals 22–14 and xG 1.62–1.32 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kabangu6535510.770.08
Vargas121,047420.360.13
Drammeh10867300.440.02
Shankland232,040460.280.16

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hale221,760800.410.05
White161,708500.320.05
Chilvers231,865350.130.16
Grieves7539020.050.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.