Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Celtic 3–0 Hearts

Saturday 4 May 2024, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 35 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 59,038

Celtic Furuhashi 4', 21', O'Riley 87' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticHearts
Goals30
xG2.780.43
Non-penalty xG1.990.43
Expected Points2.790.13

Celtic 90%Draw 8%Hearts 2%

Most likely score 3–0, 18%. Final score 3–0, 18%.

Hearts goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+2%9%5%8%2%9%2%11%5%1%5%2%2%18%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTIwata on for Hatate, 71'Maeda on for Kühn and Idah on for Furuhashi, 72'Palma on for Forrest, 84'Bernardo on for McGregor, 89'Fraser on for Grant and Atkinson on for Lembikisa, 62'Oda on for Kingsley, 72'McKay on for Devlin, 73'Tagawa on for Vargas, 82'Furuhashi 4'Furuhashi 21'O'Riley 87' (pen)Celtic 2.78Hearts 0.4301230153045607590HTIwata on for Hatate, 71'Maeda on for Kühn and Idah on for Furuhashi, 72'Palma on for Forrest, 84'Bernardo on for McGregor, 89'Fraser on for Grant and Atkinson on for Lembikisa, 62'Oda on for Kingsley, 72'McKay on for Devlin, 73'Tagawa on for Vargas, 82'Furuhashi 4'Furuhashi 21'O'Riley 87' (pen)2.780.43CelticHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticHearts

2.78 +0.13xG0.43 −0.96
1.99Non-penalty xG0.43
3.57 +0.88xG on target0.61 −0.83
17 −3Shots5 −9
8 +0.4Shots on target2 −2.5
3 −1.1Big chances1 −0.5
47 +2Touches in the opposition box16 −10
60% −9Possession40% −16
488 −166Passes331 −130
82% −3Pass accuracy75% −1
81% +2Field tilt19% −37
47 −29Final-third entries16 −26
28 +4Box entries6 −8
7.5 −3Passes per defensive action36.2 +23
17 +7.8Corners8 +1.3
18 +2Tackles18 +3
10 +5.0Interceptions6 −0.2
14 −1Clearances29 +8
2 +0.2Saves5 +2.3
13 +3Fouls7 −3
0 −2.0Offsides3 +1.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Carter-Vickers 14', 0.22 xGHatate 57', 0.19 xGO'Riley 57', 0.17 xGForrest 59', 0.15 xGFuruhashi 36', 0.13 xGFuruhashi 45', 0.11 xGTaylor 41', 0.07 xGForrest 73', 0.07 xGHatate 35', 0.06 xGFuruhashi 56', 0.06 xGO'Riley 42', 0.04 xGO'Riley 47', 0.04 xGFuruhashi 58', 0.04 xGHatate 61', 0.03 xGFuruhashi 21', 0.39 xG, goalFuruhashi 4', 0.24 xG, goal32%0.63 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 0.63 xG, 1 goal54%1.07 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 1.07 xG, 1 goal8%0.17 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals6%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Shankland 1', 0.14 xGOda 75', 0.13 xGKingsley 29', 0.07 xGDevlin 11', 0.06 xGDevlin 28', 0.04 xG16%0.07 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals75%0.33 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals9%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticHearts

1.31 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.36 4 shots, 0 goals
0.06 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.62 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.07 1 shot, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
4 min (4%) · Celtic 0.24, Hearts 0.14 xG
Celtic ahead
86 min (96%) · Celtic 2.55, Hearts 0.29 xG

Line-ups

12205333424110849HartJohnstonCarter-VickersScalesTaylorO'RileyMcGregorHatateKühnFuruhashiForrestGoalGoalGoal89'71'72'72'84'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers28321581146719779ClarkKingsleyKentRowlesLembikisaDevlinBaningimeGrantCochraneVargasShanklandYellow cardYellow card72'62'73'62'82'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith

Celtic substitutes

  • 71' Iwata for Hatate
  • 72' Idah for Furuhashi
  • 72' Maeda for Kühn
  • 84' Palma for Forrest
  • 89' Bernardo for McGregor

Hearts substitutes

  • 62' Atkinson for Lembikisa
  • 62' Fraser for Grant
  • 72' Oda for Kingsley
  • 73' McKay for Devlin
  • 82' Tagawa for Vargas

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0212
JohnstonRB900.000.0620.0952
Carter-VickersCB900.220.0200.1749
ScalesCB900.000.0100.0982
TaylorLB900.070.0810.1665
O'RileyCM90111.040.6440.1883
McGregorCM890.000.050−0.0219
HatateCM7110.280.6320.2351
KühnRW720.000.1710.2231
FuruhashiST7220.960.2800.2231
ForrestLW840.210.1720.2953
IwataDF190.000.0100.0001
IdahFW180.000.0510.0412
MaedaFW180.000.0000.1233
PalmaFW60.000.0400.1820
BernardoMF10.000.0000.0110

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0003
KingsleyCB720.070.0200.0425
KentCB900.000.050−0.01310
RowlesCB900.000.0100.07512
LembikisaRWB620.000.1820.0735
Devlin CM730.090.000−0.0114
BaningimeCM900.000.0100.0036
GrantCM620.000.0610.0831
CochraneLWB900.000.0710.0124
VargasST820.000.0000.0120
Shankland ST900.140.0200.0033
AtkinsonDF280.000.0000.0102
FraserMF280.000.3510.1510
OdaFW180.130.0100.0312
McKayFW170.000.0000.0000
TagawaFW80.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Hatate and Kühn: 5 passesHatate and Furuhashi: 5 passesHart and Carter-Vickers: 6 passesCarter-Vickers and Hatate: 6 passesO'Riley and Furuhashi: 6 passesScales and Forrest: 7 passesJohnston and O'Riley: 8 passesHatate and Forrest: 8 passesO'Riley and Hatate: 9 passesO'Riley and Kühn: 9 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 10 passesO'Riley and McGregor: 10 passesO'Riley and Forrest: 10 passesJohnston and Hatate: 11 passesScales and Carter-Vickers: 12 passesScales and McGregor: 12 passesJohnston and McGregor: 13 passesTaylor and Hatate: 14 passesHatate and McGregor: 14 passesTaylor and McGregor: 15 passesJohnston and Carter-Vickers: 17 passesTaylor and Forrest: 18 passesHart and Scales: 19 passesJohnston and Kühn: 20 passesScales and Taylor: 23 passesHart: 19 completed passesJohnston: 41 completed passesScales: 47 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 30 completed passesTaylor: 46 completed passesO'Riley: 34 completed passesHatate: 33 completed passesMcGregor: 43 completed passesKühn: 21 completed passesFuruhashi: 6 completed passesForrest: 24 completed passes12520333414210849HartJohnstonScalesCarter-VickersTaylorO'RileyHatateMcGregorKühnFuruhashiForrestStarters until 71' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Hearts

Rowles and Lembikisa: 3 passesRowles and Devlin: 3 passesKent and Baningime: 3 passesLembikisa and Baningime: 3 passesCochrane and Baningime: 3 passesDevlin and Grant: 3 passesBaningime and Grant: 3 passesBaningime and Shankland: 3 passesClark and Kingsley: 4 passesKent and Lembikisa: 4 passesKent and Cochrane: 4 passesLembikisa and Vargas: 4 passesGrant and Shankland: 4 passesRowles and Baningime: 5 passesRowles and Shankland: 5 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 5 passesLembikisa and Shankland: 5 passesKingsley and Baningime: 6 passesLembikisa and Devlin: 7 passesRowles and Grant: 8 passesCochrane and Grant: 8 passesClark and Rowles: 9 passesRowles and Cochrane: 9 passesKent and Kingsley: 10 passesKingsley and Lembikisa: 11 passesRowles and Kent: 12 passesClark: 15 completed passesRowles: 29 completed passesKent: 21 completed passesKingsley: 19 completed passesLembikisa: 16 completed passesCochrane: 21 completed passesDevlin: 9 completed passesBaningime: 15 completed passesGrant: 17 completed passesVargas: 4 completed passesShankland: 10 completed passes28152381191467779ClarkRowlesKentKingsleyLembikisaCochraneDevlinBaningimeGrantVargasShanklandStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesTaylor15
JohnstonKühn15
HartScales13
TaylorForrest13
TaylorScales11

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesKent9
ClarkRowles8
KingsleyLembikisa7
RowlesCochrane7
KentRowles7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

2−1.13−1.28−0.67+1.42−2.70−5.41−3.53−1.24−2.28+0.910+5.33−0.92−1.64−1.95−2.38+3.76+3.10−2.42−1.312+6.85+1.61−1.92+0.16+3.39+5.510.00−0.71+0.40−0.73+1.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 34 matches

Hearts

7+1.814+6.725+9.48+1.610+5.68+0.65−0.46+1.73−3.77+0.47+1.61−4.01−3.82−3.47+1.43−0.70−3.60−2.81−2.42−2.33+1.13+1.40−1.10−1.12−0.12+1.21+0.30−0.70−0.70−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 34 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.020.020.030.010.010.020.040.050.020.050.050.040.040.170.13−0.020.220.070.210.050.220.130.43LessMore

Hearts

0.020.010.030.010.030.010.010.02−0.010.010.020.01−0.01−0.010.04−0.010.020.05−0.050.070.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackCeltic2.31 → 2.32Hearts1.41 → 1.36Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.76 → 0.74Hearts1.18 → 1.22

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title86%91%+5
Rangers
Title14%9%−5

From the forecast before the match (4 May 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticHearts
Expected goals2.530.74
Win76%8%
Expected Points2.440.41
Clean sheet48%8%

Celtic 76%Draw 16%Hearts 8%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 48%.

Hearts goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+4%2%1%7%3%3%8%3%7%5%2%3%2%2%2%9%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 May 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawHearts win
Celtic
Title86%91%75%65%
Rangers
Title14%9%25%35%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W2–128 AprDundee FC (A)xG 1.53–1.10
  2. W3–013 AprSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.33–0.18
  3. D3–37 AprRangers (A)xG 1.96–1.69
  4. W3–031 MarLivingston (A)xG 2.11–0.14
  5. W3–116 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 4.02–0.73
  6. L0–23 MarHearts (A)xG 2.45–1.65

Hearts

  1. D0–027 AprKilmarnock (A)xG 1.95–0.89
  2. W4–213 AprLivingston (H)xG 3.81–0.97
  3. W2–16 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.37–0.89
  4. D1–130 MarKilmarnock (H)xG 1.61–1.55
  5. L1–216 MarRoss County (A)xG 1.27–1.74
  6. W2–03 MarCeltic (H)xG 1.65–2.45

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticHearts
Position1st3rd
Played3434
Won, drawn, lost25–⁠6–⁠319–⁠6–⁠9
Points81 (2.38 per game)63 (1.85 per game)
Expected Points per game2.341.41
Goals82–⁠2746–⁠34
xG per game2.65–⁠0.861.39–⁠1.41
Home: points, xG per game2.44, 2.96–⁠0.701.88, 1.58–⁠1.37
Away: points, xG per game2.33, 2.37–⁠1.011.82, 1.20–⁠1.45
ManagerBrendan Rodgers (34)Steven Naismith (30)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackCeltic2.31, 1stHearts1.41, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.76, 1stHearts1.18, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprCeltic attack: 2.31Hearts attack: 1.412.311.41HeartsCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprCeltic defence: 0.76Hearts defence: 1.181.180.76

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+113%−34%average+1%
Counter-attacks+99%−29%−7%−35%
Set pieces+34%−31%−10%+17%
Penalties+107%−70%+33%+4%
Headers+64%−24%−21%+14%
Left side+94%−18%−2%−16%
Centre+76%−36%−11%+5%
Right side+118%−41%+11%+17%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+94%+17%Centre+76%+5%Right side+118%−16%Open play+113%+1%Counter-attacks+99%−35%Set pieces+34%+17%Headers+64%+14%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side−2%−41%Centre−11%−36%Right side+11%−18%Open playaverage−34%Counter-attacks−7%−29%Set pieces−10%−31%Headers−21%−24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticHearts

2.65xG1.39
0.86xG against1.41
69%Possession56%
19.9Shots13.6
8.0Shots against13.3
7.6Shots on target4.5
4.1Big chances1.5
44.5Touches in the opposition box26.4
654Passes461
85%Pass accuracy76%
9.2Corners6.7
79%Field tilt56%
76.0Final-third entries42.5
24.1Box entries13.5
10.3Passes per defensive action13.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level402.610.76
Ahead452.761.01
Behind52.080.40

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.371.27
Ahead271.141.62
Behind181.801.45

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.360.0911–2
16–300.420.0812–2
31–450.360.1811–3
46–600.460.1415–5
61–750.320.169–5
76–900.730.2124–10

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.214–4
16–300.180.236–6
31–450.260.217–5
46–600.210.268–6
61–750.330.1611–7
76–900.270.3410–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 33Bain 1Johnston 29Ralston 5Carter-Vickers 21Nawrocki 6Welsh 4Scales 30Taylor 31Bernabei 3O'Riley 33Maeda 1McGregor 29Iwata 9Bernardo 11Turnbull 9Hatate 8Maeda 9Kühn 7Yang 7Furuhashi 27Idah 4Oh 3Palma 17Maeda 13Yang 34-3-3 in 33 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (33), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 33Gordon 1Kingsley 20Atkinson 7Sibbick 7Kent 32Halkett 4Rowles 27Oda 8Atkinson 7Lembikisa 5Nieuwen… 21NieuwenhofDevlin 11Denholm 6Baningi… 22BaningimeFraser 3Boyce 3Grant 14Lowry 7Haring 5Cochrane 18Forrest 7Vargas 3Shankland 31Vargas 8Cochrane 8Kingsley 63-5-2 in 18 of 34 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (18), 4-2-3-1 (14), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 March 2024Hearts2–0CelticxG 1.65–2.45
16 December 2023Celtic0–2HeartsxG 1.60–0.34
22 October 2023Hearts1–4CelticxG 0.73–4.01
7 May 2023Hearts0–2CelticxG 0.28–1.39
8 March 2023Celtic3–1HeartsxG 2.08–0.62
22 October 2022Hearts3–4CelticxG 2.90–2.82

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 8, Hearts won 3, and 0 were drawn. Goals 23–13 and xG 2.41–0.98 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Idah4483721.010.10
Turnbull9676700.710.39
Oh3610500.940.05
Palma171,364690.480.47

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland332,9592140.470.19
Boyce7631130.360.20
Grant141,311440.390.16
Forrest181,804350.250.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.