Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

St. Johnstone 1–2 Hearts

Sunday 23 February 2025, 12:00 · McDiarmid Park · Round 27 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Calum Scott · Attendance 5,577

St. Johnstone Sidibeh 53'

Hearts Kabangu 36', 57'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. JohnstoneHearts
Goals12
xG2.022.18
Expected Points1.231.45

St. Johnstone 31%Draw 32%Hearts 38%

Most likely score 2–2, 18%. Final score 1–2, 9%.

Hearts goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+2%1%6%9%6%2%10%10%3%6%10%7%2%2%1%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTDuke-McKenna on for Watt, 46'Mitchell on for Svedberg and Kirk on for Curtis, 71'Steven on for Sidibeh, 77'Kartum on for Grant and Taylor on for Forrester, 65'Drammeh on for Wilson and Nieuwenhof on for Spittal, 73'Forrest on for Shankland, 89'Sidibeh 53'Kabangu 36'Kabangu 57'Hearts 2.18St. Johnstone 2.0201230153045607590HTDuke-McKenna on for Watt, 46'Mitchell on for Svedberg and Kirk on for Curtis, 71'Steven on for Sidibeh, 77'Kartum on for Grant and Taylor on for Forrester, 65'Drammeh on for Wilson and Nieuwenhof on for Spittal, 73'Forrest on for Shankland, 89'Sidibeh 53'Kabangu 36'Kabangu 57'2.182.02St. JohnstoneHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. JohnstoneHearts

2.02 +1.01xG2.18 +0.83
1.83 +0.83xG on target2.21 +0.89
7 −3Shots12 −1
2 −1.1Shots on target5 +0.7
4 +2.7Big chances3 +0.7
11 −5Touches in the opposition box27 +1
58% +5Possession42% −13
506 +68Passes364 −83
78% 0Pass accuracy73% −3
51% +6Field tilt49% −9
30 −7Final-third entries34 −8
6 −2.8Box entries13 +0.8
14.7 −1Passes per defensive action11.5 −1
3 −0.8Corners6 −0.5
14 −1Tackles25 +6
9 +0.9Interceptions8 −1.0
24 −8Clearances32 +5
3 +0.2Saves1 −1.7
10 −1Fouls9 −2
4 +2.6Offsides1 −0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Johnstone

Curtis 56', 0.56 xGCarey 81', 0.49 xGCarey 39', 0.07 xGMikulic 90+3', 0.05 xGSidibeh 26', 0.04 xGSidibeh 8', 0.03 xGSidibeh 53', 0.78 xG, goal39%0.78 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.78 xG, 1 goal54%1.10 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 1.10 xG, 0 goals1%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals3%0.07 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Grant 30', 0.30 xGShankland 36', 0.14 xGShankland 48', 0.12 xGGrant 61', 0.06 xGNieuwenhof 76', 0.05 xGGrant 19', 0.03 xGSpittal 22', 0.03 xGKabangu 34', 0.03 xGSpittal 43', 0.03 xGNieuwenhof 77', 0.01 xGKabangu 36', 0.92 xG, goalKabangu 57', 0.47 xG, goal42%0.92 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.92 xG, 1 goal47%1.03 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 1.03 xG, 1 goal1%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals9%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals0%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. JohnstoneHearts

1.52 6 shots, 1 goalOpen play2.17 11 shots, 2 goals
0.49 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.01 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
40 min (42%) · St. Johnstone 0.62, Hearts 1.92 xG
Hearts ahead
55 min (58%) · St. Johnstone 1.40, Hearts 0.26 xG

Line-ups

142303723441411168FisherBalodisMikulicDouglasCurtisSpranglerWattWrightCareySidibehSvedbergGoal71'46'77'71'St. Johnstone 3-4-3Simo Valakari135153029761691921GordonForresterSteinwenderMcCartPenriceGrantBaningimeSpittalShanklandKabanguWilsonYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card65'65'73'89'73'Hearts 4-3-1-2Neil Critchley

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 46' Duke-McKenna for Watt
  • 71' Mitchell for Svedberg
  • 71' Kirk for Curtis
  • 77' Steven for Sidibeh

Hearts substitutes

  • 65' Taylor for Forrester · yellow card 90+1'
  • 65' Kartum for Grant
  • 73' Nieuwenhof for Spittal
  • 73' Drammeh for Wilson
  • 89' Forrest for Shankland

Players

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
FisherGK900.000.0000.0211
BalodisCB900.000.0000.02010
MikulicCB900.050.0100.06610
DouglasCB900.000.0100.06610
CurtisRWB710.560.0100.0783
SpranglerCM900.000.0410.0524
WattCM460.000.0100.0323
WrightLWB900.000.0500.0732
CareyRW9010.560.6520.2261
SidibehST7710.840.0100.0211
SvedbergLW710.000.021−0.0211
Duke-McKennaFW440.000.5620.2131
MitchellDF190.000.0000.0441
KirkFW190.000.0000.0000
StevenFW130.000.0000.0240

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0343
ForresterRB650.000.0100.0435
SteinwenderCB900.000.0210.04316
McCartCB900.000.0000.0229
Penrice LB900.000.2520.2989
GrantCM650.390.0200.0142
BaningimeCM900.000.0110.0347
SpittalCM730.050.1010.1392
ShanklandAM8920.260.3320.1864
Kabangu ST9021.420.1300.0312
WilsonST730.000.1310.1311
Taylor DF250.000.0000.0113
KartumMF250.000.0200.0210
NieuwenhofMF170.060.0000.0103
DrammehFW170.000.0000.0001
ForrestMF10.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Johnstone

Fisher and Balodis: 3 passesFisher and Curtis: 3 passesMikulic and Wright: 3 passesMikulic and Watt: 3 passesWatt and Svedberg: 3 passesFisher and Douglas: 4 passesBalodis and Curtis: 4 passesWright and Sprangler: 4 passesSprangler and Watt: 4 passesCarey and Svedberg: 4 passesBalodis and Sprangler: 5 passesCurtis and Watt: 5 passesCurtis and Carey: 5 passesSprangler and Carey: 5 passesMikulic and Balodis: 6 passesMikulic and Douglas: 7 passesMikulic and Sprangler: 7 passesDouglas and Carey: 7 passesWright and Carey: 7 passesCurtis and Sprangler: 8 passesWatt and Carey: 8 passesWright and Svedberg: 9 passesFisher and Mikulic: 10 passesDouglas and Watt: 10 passesWright and Watt: 11 passesDouglas and Wright: 12 passesFisher: 12 completed passesMikulic: 22 completed passesBalodis: 12 completed passesDouglas: 26 completed passesCurtis: 15 completed passesWright: 25 completed passesSprangler: 20 completed passesWatt: 24 completed passesCarey: 15 completed passesSvedberg: 13 completed passesSidibeh: 2 completed passes124303714234411816FisherMikulicBalodisDouglasCurtisWrightSpranglerWattCareySvedbergSidibehStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Gordon and Forrester: 5 passesSteinwender and Baningime: 5 passesGrant and Wilson: 5 passesShankland and Kabangu: 5 passesPenrice and Baningime: 6 passesSpittal and Shankland: 6 passesForrester and Grant: 8 passesMcCart and Penrice: 8 passesBaningime and Spittal: 8 passesGrant and Spittal: 8 passesForrester and Wilson: 9 passesSteinwender and Shankland: 9 passesSteinwender and McCart: 10 passesMcCart and Spittal: 10 passesSteinwender and Grant: 11 passesPenrice and Kabangu: 11 passesForrester and Shankland: 12 passesForrester and Steinwender: 13 passesSpittal and Kabangu: 14 passesGordon and Steinwender: 15 passesPenrice and Spittal: 20 passesGordon: 16 completed passesForrester: 30 completed passesSteinwender: 39 completed passesMcCart: 20 completed passesPenrice: 28 completed passesBaningime: 21 completed passesGrant: 26 completed passesSpittal: 33 completed passesShankland: 16 completed passesKabangu: 16 completed passesWilson: 11 completed passes135153029671691921GordonForresterSteinwenderMcCartPenriceBaningimeGrantSpittalShanklandKabanguWilsonStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
MikulicBalodis17
DouglasMikulic15
DouglasWright11
MikulicDouglas11
MikulicFisher10

Hearts

FromToPasses
PenriceSpittal15
SteinwenderGordon10
ForresterShankland9
SpittalKabangu8
KabanguPenrice7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Johnstone

6+0.76−1.216−3.42−5.04−1.714+7.08+0.67+0.52−4.68+0.28+2.91−3.52−1.45+0.57+1.43+0.13+0.44+2.46+3.67+3.50−2.42+0.51+0.11−0.23+1.30−0.70−0.30−0.41+0.71+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Hearts

2−2.03−2.310−3.32−4.81−3.89+2.211+4.611+5.54−3.37−0.58+2.33−1.51−2.37+1.39+1.76+1.09+5.86+3.111+7.67+2.41−1.44+2.41−0.27+5.25+2.30−0.70−0.40−0.71+0.710.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Johnstone

0.010.010.010.010.030.010.010.030.030.050.020.010.020.030.030.04−0.010.010.040.010.030.020.06−0.020.140.010.22LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.020.010.010.020.010.030.020.010.040.050.060.020.09−0.010.050.100.080.150.19LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackSt. Johnstone1.01 → 1.01Hearts1.39 → 1.40Defence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.56 → 1.57Hearts1.24 → 1.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Johnstone
11th24%20%−4
Bottom66%74%+8
Hearts
Top six34%46%+12
11th2%1%−1
Bottom<1%–0
Dundee FC
11th45%51%+6
Bottom28%22%−6
St. Mirren
Top six40%36%−4

From the forecast before the match (23 February 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. JohnstoneHearts
Expected goals1.121.44
Win29%44%
Expected Points1.141.59
Clean sheet24%33%

St. Johnstone 29%Draw 27%Hearts 44%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Hearts goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+8%8%4%1%8%9%4%2%5%7%5%2%2%3%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 February 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Johnstone winDrawHearts win
St. Johnstone
11th24%30%24%20%
Bottom66%53%68%74%
Hearts
Top six34%18%32%46%
11th2%4%1%1%
Bottom<1%1%<1%–
Dundee FC
11th45%36%46%51%
Bottom28%38%27%22%
St. Mirren
Top six40%45%41%36%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. L1–315 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 0.67–1.40
  2. W1–01 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.51–0.38
  3. W2–125 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.50–1.22
  4. L1–312 JanRangers (A)xG 0.43–3.03
  5. L1–35 JanDundee FC (H)xG 2.00–1.49
  6. D1–12 JanHibernian (H)xG 0.96–2.27

Hearts

  1. L1–316 FebRangers (H)xG 2.61–1.58
  2. W6–01 FebDundee FC (A)xG 3.06–0.37
  3. W3–225 JanKilmarnock (H)xG 2.51–1.05
  4. D0–012 JanAberdeen (A)xG 1.54–1.10
  5. W1–05 JanDundee United (A)xG 0.85–0.66
  6. W1–02 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.97–1.25

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneHearts
Position12th10th
Played2626
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠3–⁠178–⁠6–⁠12
Points21 (0.81 per game)30 (1.15 per game)
Expected Points per game1.101.35
Goals29–⁠5135–⁠36
xG per game1.01–⁠1.521.35–⁠1.40
Home: points, xG per game0.83, 1.12–⁠1.521.38, 1.46–⁠1.30
Away: points, xG per game0.79, 0.92–⁠1.520.92, 1.24–⁠1.50
ManagerSimo Valakari (19)Neil Critchley (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackSt. Johnstone1.01, 12thHearts1.39, 4thDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.56, 11thHearts1.24, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Johnstone attack: 1.01Hearts attack: 1.391.391.01HeartsSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Johnstone defence: 1.56Hearts defence: 1.241.561.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−35%+21%−6%−12%
Counter-attacks−52%+8%+9%−7%
Set pieces−24%−2%+18%+7%
Penalties+17%−53%−77%+40%
Headers−31%+16%+4%+18%
Left side−29%+31%+14%+3%
Centre−41%+12%−5%−7%
Right side−21%−3%+6%−14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdHearts concededLeft side−29%−14%Centre−41%−7%Right side−21%+3%Open play−35%−12%Counter-attacks−52%−7%Set pieces−24%+7%Headers−31%+18%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side+14%−3%Centre−5%+12%Right side+6%+31%Open play−6%+21%Counter-attacks+9%+8%Set pieces+18%−2%Headers+4%+16%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneHearts

1.01xG1.35
1.52xG against1.40
53%Possession55%
10.0Shots13.3
14.0Shots against11.2
3.1Shots on target4.3
1.3Big chances2.3
16.2Touches in the opposition box25.7
438Passes447
78%Pass accuracy77%
3.8Corners6.5
45%Field tilt58%
36.7Final-third entries42.1
8.8Box entries12.2
15.5Passes per defensive action12.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.121.79
Ahead141.241.33
Behind420.851.37

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.271.60
Ahead241.501.11
Behind271.331.37

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.222–7
16–300.100.292–11
31–450.200.205–6
46–600.170.266–11
61–750.130.185–6
76–900.290.379–10

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.185–4
16–300.170.205–4
31–450.120.244–5
46–600.200.266–7
61–750.210.197–7
76–900.420.328–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTRae 13Sinclair 10Fisher 3Cameron 12Wright 10Neilson 10Sanders 21Kucheriavyi 1McClelland 1Mikulic 12Douglas 2Wright 9Clark 7Curtis 2Holt 13Carey 8MacPhers… 3MacPhersonSprangler 20Clark 3Watt 2Smith 14Essel 4Sidibeh 2Raymond 13Wright 4Douglas 3Kirk 12Sidibeh 10Kimpioka 18Clark 8Griffith 23-5-2 in 7 of 26 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (7), 4-3-1-2 (7), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 24Clark 2Oyegoke 11Forrester 9Taylor 4Kent 12Halkett 10Oyegoke 2Rowles 20McCart 4Kingsley 2Penrice 20Kingsley 3Grant 1Devlin 17Baningime 11Penrice 1Boateng 13Grant 6Spittal 1Drammeh 9Forrest 5Vargas 3Shankland 9Grant 5Boyce 3Spittal 18Forrest 3Vargas 2Shankland 11Wilson 8Vargas 44-2-3-1 in 14 of 26 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (14), 4-4-2 (6), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
22 December 2024Hearts2–1St. JohnstonexG 0.75–1.28
2 November 2024St. Johnstone1–2HeartsxG 1.39–1.44
7 February 2024St. Johnstone0–1HeartsxG 0.45–0.70
25 November 2023Hearts1–0St. JohnstonexG 1.44–0.85
5 August 2023St. Johnstone0–2HeartsxG 0.94–1.77
4 March 2023Hearts3–0St. JohnstonexG 1.63–1.19

11 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 1, Hearts won 9, and 1 was a draw. Goals 9–21 and xG 1.13–1.55 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Carey101,080310.170.24
Clark181,450620.350.06
Sidibeh121,274220.240.11
Kimpioka191,667620.280.04

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Drammeh10834300.460.02
Vargas121,031320.330.14
Shankland201,771440.300.16
Wilson9830410.230.19

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.