Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 1–4 Celtic

Sunday 22 October 2023, 14:15 · Tynecastle Park · Round 9 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 17,608

Hearts Shankland 64'

Celtic O'Riley 4', Maeda 23', Furuhashi 51', Iwata 81'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsCeltic
Goals14
xG0.734.01
Non-penalty xG0.733.22
Expected Points0.052.92

Hearts 1%Draw 3%Celtic 96%

Most likely score 0–4, 14%. Final score 1–4, 11%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+5%10%6%4%9%8%5%1%3%4%3%2%11%14%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

02460153045607590HTOda on for Lowry and Baningime on for Nieuwenhof, 58'Boyce on for Vargas, 73'Grant on for Devlin, 82'Forrest on for Palma, 65'Iwata on for Hatate, 66'Oh on for Furuhashi and Yang on for Maeda, 72'Bernardo on for McGregor, 82'Shankland 64'O'Riley 4'Maeda 23'Furuhashi 51'Iwata 81'Celtic 4.01Hearts 0.7302460153045607590HTOda on for Lowry and Baningime on for Nieuwenhof, 58'Boyce on for Vargas, 73'Grant on for Devlin, 82'Forrest on for Palma, 65'Iwata on for Hatate, 66'Oh on for Furuhashi and Yang on for Maeda, 72'Bernardo on for McGregor, 82'Shankland 64'O'Riley 4'Maeda 23'Furuhashi 51'Iwata 81'4.010.73HeartsCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsCeltic

0.73 −0.41xG4.01 +1.48
0.73Non-penalty xG3.22
0.72 −0.65xG on target3.53 +0.59
13 −1Shots19 +1
6 +2.0Shots on target7 −1.0
0 −1.4Big chances4 −0.2
15 −14Touches in the opposition box36 −7
42% −20Possession58% −10
425 −67Passes587 −73
75% −2Pass accuracy79% −4
33% −31Field tilt67% −7
25 −23Final-third entries44 −23
5 −11Box entries21 −1
13.9 +3Passes per defensive action11.1 0
3 −5.5Corners5 −3.0
17 +4Tackles22 +7
11 +4.0Interceptions8 +1.2
18 0Clearances12 −6
3 +0.2Saves5 +3.2
16 +4.8Fouls11 +1.8
3 +2.2Offsides2 +0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 78', 0.21 xGSibbick 42', 0.07 xGForrest 78', 0.07 xGKent 15', 0.06 xGOda 90+1', 0.06 xGForrest 71', 0.05 xGShankland 64', 0.04 xGCochrane 63', 0.03 xGVargas 14', 0.02 xGVargas 21', 0.02 xGDevlin 63', 0.02 xGBoyce 90+3', 0.01 xGShankland 64', 0.08 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals46%0.34 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals24%0.18 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals30%0.22 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.22 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Oh 85', 0.35 xGMaeda 55', 0.27 xGOh 81', 0.21 xGOh 81', 0.12 xGHatate 64', 0.09 xGYang 79', 0.09 xGHatate 56', 0.06 xGCarter-Vickers 6', 0.04 xGTaylor 16', 0.04 xGMcGregor 20', 0.03 xGForrest 79', 0.03 xGPalma 21', 0.02 xGForrest 68', 0.02 xGMaeda 19', 0.01 xGMaeda 23', 0.98 xG, goalFuruhashi 51', 0.53 xG, goalO'Riley 4', 0.25 xG, goalIwata 81', 0.07 xG, goal30%0.98 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.98 xG, 1 goal62%1.99 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 1.99 xG, 3 goals2%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals6%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsCeltic

0.58 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play2.80 15 shots, 4 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.35 1 shot, 0 goals
0.15 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.07 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
4 min (4%) · Hearts 0.00, Celtic 0.25 xG
Celtic ahead
89 min (96%) · Hearts 0.73, Celtic 3.76 xG

Line-ups

2821215198141795177ClarkSibbickKentRowlesCochraneNieuwenhofDevlinForrestShanklandLowryVargasYellow cardGoalYellow card58'82'58'73'Hearts 4-2-3-1Steven Naismith1220533342413887HartJohnstonCarter-VickersScalesTaylorO'RileyMcGregorHatateMaedaFuruhashiPalmaGoalGoalGoal82'66'72'72'65'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers

Hearts substitutes

  • 58' Baningime for Nieuwenhof
  • 58' Oda for Lowry
  • 73' Boyce for Vargas
  • 82' Grant for Devlin

Celtic substitutes

  • 65' Forrest for Palma
  • 66' Iwata for Hatate · goal 81', yellow card 90+3'
  • 72' Oh for Furuhashi
  • 72' Yang for Maeda
  • 82' Bernardo for McGregor

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0220
Sibbick RB900.070.0500.1348
KentCB900.060.0000.03511
RowlesCB900.000.1110.07111
CochraneLB900.030.0100.0329
NieuwenhofDM580.000.0220.0131
DevlinDM820.020.0100.0038
ForrestRW900.110.0300.0242
ShanklandAM9010.340.051−0.0411
LowryLW580.000.0610.0640
Vargas ST730.050.011−0.0300
BaningimeMF320.000.022−0.0120
OdaFW320.060.0100.0320
BoyceFW170.010.0100.0013
GrantMF80.000.0120.0120

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0240
JohnstonRB900.000.0610.21104
Carter-VickersCB900.040.0100.0428
ScalesCB900.000.0000.0988
TaylorLB900.040.2810.0343
O'RileyCM9010.250.1830.1072
McGregorCM820.030.0200.0426
HatateCM6610.950.0720.1756
MaedaRW7211.260.0400.0444
FuruhashiST7210.530.0800.0812
PalmaLW6510.020.4730.1581
ForrestFW250.060.1310.1441
Iwata DF2410.070.0110.0110
OhFW180.680.000−0.0101
YangFW180.090.0100.0101
BernardoMF80.000.0100.0210

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Sibbick and Forrest: 3 passesKent and Cochrane: 3 passesCochrane and Forrest: 3 passesCochrane and Vargas: 3 passesNieuwenhof and Lowry: 3 passesForrest and Vargas: 3 passesClark and Shankland: 4 passesRowles and Nieuwenhof: 4 passesKent and Devlin: 4 passesCochrane and Nieuwenhof: 4 passesCochrane and Devlin: 4 passesCochrane and Shankland: 4 passesNieuwenhof and Vargas: 4 passesClark and Kent: 5 passesRowles and Lowry: 6 passesSibbick and Devlin: 7 passesSibbick and Shankland: 7 passesSibbick and Nieuwenhof: 8 passesCochrane and Lowry: 9 passesSibbick and Kent: 10 passesClark and Rowles: 13 passesRowles and Kent: 13 passesRowles and Cochrane: 15 passesClark: 12 completed passesSibbick: 22 completed passesRowles: 33 completed passesKent: 22 completed passesCochrane: 20 completed passesNieuwenhof: 15 completed passesDevlin: 17 completed passesForrest: 10 completed passesShankland: 7 completed passesLowry: 9 completed passesVargas: 7 completed passes2821152198141795177ClarkSibbickRowlesKentCochraneNieuwenhofDevlinForrestShanklandLowryVargasStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Hart and O'Riley: 5 passesCarter-Vickers and Maeda: 5 passesHatate and Maeda: 6 passesJohnston and Hatate: 7 passesScales and Palma: 7 passesJohnston and McGregor: 8 passesScales and McGregor: 8 passesO'Riley and McGregor: 8 passesO'Riley and Palma: 8 passesHatate and McGregor: 8 passesO'Riley and Hatate: 9 passesO'Riley and Maeda: 9 passesJohnston and Carter-Vickers: 10 passesHatate and Palma: 10 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 11 passesTaylor and Hatate: 11 passesJohnston and Maeda: 12 passesTaylor and McGregor: 13 passesHart and Carter-Vickers: 14 passesScales and Carter-Vickers: 18 passesCarter-Vickers and O'Riley: 18 passesJohnston and O'Riley: 19 passesHart and Scales: 20 passesTaylor and Palma: 20 passesScales and Taylor: 38 passesHart: 31 completed passesJohnston: 34 completed passesScales: 51 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 46 completed passesTaylor: 49 completed passesO'Riley: 42 completed passesHatate: 27 completed passesMcGregor: 36 completed passesMaeda: 13 completed passesFuruhashi: 8 completed passesPalma: 23 completed passes1252033341423887HartJohnstonScalesCarter-VickersTaylorO'RileyHatateMcGregorMaedaFuruhashiPalmaStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesCochrane17
RowlesKent13
KentSibbick11
CochraneRowles11
KentRowles11

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesTaylor22
TaylorScales21
HartScales18
Carter-VickersJohnston14
JohnstonO'Riley14

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

6−0.94−4.018+8.08+0.94−1.25−4.19+3.85+1.55−1.66−0.17+0.511+6.24+0.46+0.810+3.29+4.912+7.47+4.03−1.17+1.63+1.62+0.51−0.42+0.68+5.90−0.91−0.10−0.62+1.42+1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Celtic

4+0.43−0.17−1.12−3.49+1.410+5.53−1.112+5.27−1.012+7.18+5.110+6.66−0.16−3.48+3.45+2.13+0.55+2.43−4.07+3.24+1.52−0.21−1.22−2.80−1.00−0.10−0.50−0.510.05−6.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.030.010.010.020.030.010.020.010.020.020.010.03−0.020.010.020.01−0.05−0.010.060.04LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.030.01−0.010.020.060.040.030.050.090.04−0.010.100.01−0.030.140.070.140.110.010.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHearts1.28 → 1.26Celtic2.31 → 2.36Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.28 → 1.34Celtic0.76 → 0.75

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six66%61%−5
11th2%3%+1
Bottom1%1%0
Celtic
Title79%82%+3
Rangers
Title21%18%−3
Hibernian
Top six61%62%+1
11th3%3%0

From the forecast before the match (22 October 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsCeltic
Expected goals0.892.05
Win15%64%
Expected Points0.662.12
Clean sheet13%41%

Hearts 15%Draw 21%Celtic 64%

Most likely score 0–2, 11%. Both sides score 52%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+6%8%4%2%4%7%3%1%2%4%4%3%2%1%1%10%11%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 22 October 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawCeltic win
Hearts
Top six66%78%70%61%
11th2%1%2%3%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%
Celtic
Title79%69%74%82%
Rangers
Title21%31%26%18%
Hibernian
Top six61%57%60%62%
11th3%3%3%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. D2–27 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.25–1.32
  2. W1–030 SepRoss County (A)xG 0.98–0.40
  3. L0–123 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.19–1.59
  4. W2–016 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.18–0.53
  5. L0–13 SepMotherwell (H)xG 1.51–1.14
  6. L0–127 AugDundee FC (A)xG 0.86–1.52

Celtic

  1. W3–17 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 2.75–1.54
  2. W2–130 SepMotherwell (A)xG 1.68–0.82
  3. W3–023 SepLivingston (A)xG 2.61–0.94
  4. W3–016 SepDundee FC (H)xG 3.17–0.81
  5. W1–03 SepRangers (A)xG 0.95–1.80
  6. D0–026 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.02–0.28

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsCeltic
Position4th1st
Played88
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠37–⁠1–⁠0
Points11 (1.38 per game)22 (2.75 per game)
Expected Points per game1.432.23
Goals7–⁠519–⁠5
xG per game1.14–⁠1.022.53–⁠1.13
Home: points, xG per game1.25, 1.08–⁠0.932.50, 3.02–⁠0.94
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.20–⁠1.113.00, 2.04–⁠1.33
ManagerSteven Naismith (4)Brendan Rodgers (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHearts1.28, 4thCeltic2.31, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.28, 4thCeltic0.76, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctHearts attack: 1.28Celtic attack: 2.312.311.28CelticHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctHearts defence: 1.28Celtic defence: 0.761.280.76

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+2%−20%+101%+17%
Counter-attacks−8%−55%+206%−80%
Set pieces−22%+5%+19%−40%
Penalties−100%−100%+145%−100%
Headers−30%−5%−17%−30%
Left side−24%−9%+73%+14%
Centre+6%−28%+91%−12%
Right side−10%+4%+87%−14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side−24%−14%Centre+6%−12%Right side−10%+14%Open play+2%+17%Counter-attacks−8%−80%Set pieces−22%−40%Headers−30%−30%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+73%+4%Centre+91%−28%Right side+87%−9%Open play+101%−20%Counter-attacks+206%−55%Set pieces+19%+5%Headers−17%−5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsCeltic

1.14xG2.53
1.02xG against1.13
62%Possession68%
14.2Shots18.1
11.5Shots against9.4
4.0Shots on target8.0
1.4Big chances4.2
29.2Touches in the opposition box43.0
492Passes660
77%Pass accuracy84%
8.5Corners8.0
64%Field tilt74%
48.3Final-third entries66.8
16.0Box entries21.8
10.6Passes per defensive action11.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level500.991.12
Ahead191.091.10
Behind211.560.72

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level432.340.73
Ahead472.711.49
Behind0––

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.231–1
16–300.110.171–1
31–450.060.120–0
46–600.230.271–0
61–750.380.083–3
76–900.310.151–0

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.310.162–0
16–300.470.154–1
31–450.290.153–0
46–600.610.092–1
61–750.300.283–1
76–900.560.295–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTClark 8Atkinson 5Sibbick 2Offiah 1Kent 8Rowles 8Kingsley 7Cochrane 1Devlin 5Lowry 1Offiah 1Haring 4Nieuwenhof 3Denholm 1Oda 5Devlin 1Vargas 1Boyce 3Nieuwenhof 1Shankland 1Vargas 4Lowry 2Forrest 1Shankland 7Tagawa 14-2-3-1 in 7 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-3-3 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 7Bain 1Johnston 6Ralston 2Lagerbielke 4Carter-Vickers 3Phillips 1Scales 6Nawrocki 2Taylor 8O'Riley 8McGregor 8Turnbull 5Hatate 3Abada 3Maeda 2Yang 2Furuhashi 8Maeda 6Palma 1Yang 14-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
7 May 2023Hearts0–2CelticxG 0.28–1.39
8 March 2023Celtic3–1HeartsxG 2.08–0.62
22 October 2022Hearts3–4CelticxG 2.90–2.82
21 August 2022Celtic2–0HeartsxG 2.55–0.29
7 May 2022Celtic4–1HeartsxG 3.57–0.71
26 January 2022Hearts1–2CelticxG 1.22–1.70

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 1, Celtic won 7, and 0 were drawn. Goals 8–19 and xG 1.01–2.31 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland8720100.280.17
Devlin6506000.080.16
Kingsley7585000.050.17
Kent8720010.050.03

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
O'Riley8692520.520.27
Furuhashi8635420.460.20
Maeda8676120.350.07
Taylor8689110.120.22

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.