Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 2–0 Celtic

Sunday 3 March 2024, 12:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 29 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 17,748

Hearts Grant 43' (pen), Shankland 56'

Celtic Yang sent off 16'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsCeltic
Goals20
xG1.652.45
Non-penalty xG0.861.66
Expected Points0.811.94

Hearts 19%Draw 25%Celtic 56%

Most likely score 1–2, 13%. Final score 2–0, 1%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+2%3%2%1%1%8%5%2%1%6%9%4%1%2%4%4%2%1%13%11%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTYang (Celtic), red card 16'Tait on for Grant, 71'Devlin on for Nieuwenhof and Tagawa on for Forrest, 79'Denholm on for Baningime, 88'Furuhashi on for Bernardo, 46'Kelly on for Iwata, 79'Grant 43' (pen)Shankland 56'Celtic 2.45Hearts 1.6501230153045607590HTYang (Celtic), red card 16'Tait on for Grant, 71'Devlin on for Nieuwenhof and Tagawa on for Forrest, 79'Denholm on for Baningime, 88'Furuhashi on for Bernardo, 46'Kelly on for Iwata, 79'Grant 43' (pen)Shankland 56'2.451.65HeartsCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsCeltic

1.65 +0.42xG2.45 −0.22
0.86Non-penalty xG1.66
1.85 +0.53xG on target2.15 −0.52
14 +1Shots17 −3
6 +1.6Shots on target6 −1.5
2 +0.8Big chances3 −0.9
27 +1Touches in the opposition box20 −26
48% −8Possession52% −18
487 +27Passes509 −157
80% +5Pass accuracy85% 0
62% +7Field tilt38% −43
34 −9Final-third entries46 −33
18 +5Box entries9 −16
24.1 +11Passes per defensive action18.8 +9
7 +0.4Corners7 −2.6
12 −2Tackles14 −1
5 −1.4Interceptions4 −1.2
20 −2Clearances20 +5
6 +3.2Saves4 +2.3
10 −1.1Fouls11 +1.1
2 +1.0Offsides3 +1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Cochrane 8', 0.12 xGShankland 39', 0.12 xGForrest 27', 0.10 xGShankland 30', 0.07 xGTait 84', 0.07 xGForrest 52', 0.05 xGNieuwenhof 53', 0.05 xGShankland 76', 0.05 xGShankland 50', 0.04 xGShankland 4', 0.03 xGForrest 77', 0.02 xGKingsley 90', 0.01 xGShankland 56', 0.12 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals69%0.59 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.59 xG, 1 goal13%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals14%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals4%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Furuhashi 70', 0.52 xGO'Riley 78', 0.18 xGIdah 86', 0.17 xGIdah 78', 0.14 xGIdah 35', 0.12 xGMaeda 32', 0.10 xGCarter-Vickers 54', 0.10 xGFuruhashi 66', 0.08 xGIdah 58', 0.05 xGIwata 19', 0.04 xGBernardo 35', 0.04 xGIdah 45', 0.03 xGFuruhashi 53', 0.03 xGIdah 31', 0.02 xGIwata 60', 0.02 xGTaylor 87', 0.01 xG37%0.62 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.62 xG, 0 goals34%0.57 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.57 xG, 0 goals13%0.21 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals12%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals4%0.07 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsCeltic

0.68 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.40 12 shots, 0 goals
0.12 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.06 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.26 4 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
43 min (46%) · Hearts 1.23, Celtic 1.12 xG
Hearts ahead
51 min (54%) · Hearts 0.41, Celtic 1.33 xG

Line-ups

28213158186719917ClarkSibbickKingsleyRowlesLembikisaNieuwenhofBaningimeGrantCochraneShanklandForrestGoalYellow cardGoal79'88'71'79'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith12205333242813938HartJohnstonCarter-VickersScalesTaylorO'RileyIwataBernardoYangIdahMaedaYellow cardSent off79'46'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers

Hearts substitutes

  • 71' Tait for Grant · yellow card 90+4'
  • 79' Devlin for Nieuwenhof
  • 79' Tagawa for Forrest
  • 88' Denholm for Baningime

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Furuhashi for Bernardo
  • 79' Kelly for Iwata · yellow card 89'

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0100.0520
SibbickCB900.000.0100.0414
KingsleyCB900.010.1310.1239
RowlesCB900.000.0400.11711
LembikisaRWB900.000.2020.24115
NieuwenhofCM7910.050.2320.1233
BaningimeCM880.000.0400.0323
GrantCM7110.790.0610.0320
Cochrane LWB900.120.0610.0882
ShanklandST9010.440.0710.0132
ForrestST790.170.0810.2330
Tait MF190.070.000−0.0102
DevlinMF110.000.0200.0102
TagawaFW110.000.0200.0110
DenholmMF20.000.0000.0000

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0431
Johnston RB900.000.0510.17142
Carter-VickersCB900.100.0100.0995
ScalesCB900.000.0100.06213
TaylorLB900.010.0200.0574
O'RileyCM900.180.6260.1844
IwataCM790.070.0110.0344
BernardoCM460.040.0500.0722
Yang RW160.000.0200.0210
IdahST901.320.0100.0512
MaedaLW900.100.001−0.0144
FuruhashiFW440.630.0110.1061
Kelly MF110.000.0000.0012

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Rowles and Lembikisa: 4 passesBaningime and Forrest: 4 passesGrant and Shankland: 4 passesKingsley and Grant: 5 passesBaningime and Grant: 5 passesClark and Sibbick: 6 passesCochrane and Baningime: 6 passesNieuwenhof and Baningime: 6 passesNieuwenhof and Shankland: 6 passesClark and Rowles: 7 passesLembikisa and Nieuwenhof: 7 passesRowles and Baningime: 8 passesSibbick and Baningime: 8 passesKingsley and Baningime: 8 passesLembikisa and Shankland: 8 passesGrant and Forrest: 8 passesForrest and Shankland: 9 passesRowles and Sibbick: 10 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 10 passesClark and Kingsley: 11 passesRowles and Grant: 11 passesRowles and Cochrane: 17 passesCochrane and Grant: 19 passesSibbick and Lembikisa: 32 passesSibbick and Kingsley: 36 passesRowles and Kingsley: 38 passesClark: 20 completed passesRowles: 51 completed passesSibbick: 48 completed passesKingsley: 59 completed passesLembikisa: 33 completed passesCochrane: 30 completed passesNieuwenhof: 18 completed passesBaningime: 29 completed passesGrant: 30 completed passesForrest: 12 completed passesShankland: 14 completed passes28152138119867179ClarkRowlesSibbickKingsleyLembikisaCochraneNieuwenhofBaningimeGrantForrestShanklandStarters until 71' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KingsleyRowles23
RowlesKingsley21
SibbickKingsley19
KingsleySibbick19
SibbickLembikisa18

Celtic

FromToPasses
Carter-VickersJohnston26
ScalesTaylor20
JohnstonCarter-Vickers20
HartCarter-Vickers18
TaylorScales16

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

2−3.415−1.010+3.43−1.15−2.57+1.23−1.43−3.88+1.84−1.45−0.48+3.59+3.64−2.03−0.75+1.23+0.38+4.85+0.32+0.20−1.60−1.10−1.21−1.21+0.20−0.81+0.40−0.71+0.33−4.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Celtic

5+2.26+2.114+5.313+7.411+6.43−2.44−0.54+0.16−0.14−3.42−2.75+1.14+0.54−2.13−4.35+0.830.01−1.56+2.94−1.37+3.51−2.01−1.03+0.20−3.90−0.90−0.60−0.60−0.70−1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.040.010.010.020.010.020.010.010.010.030.030.010.050.010.010.020.01−0.010.020.060.170.08−0.010.200.24LessMore

Celtic

0.030.020.010.010.060.030.010.020.010.040.040.060.010.030.010.050.030.020.020.01−0.020.04−0.010.06−0.010.110.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHearts1.31 → 1.31Celtic2.32 → 2.29Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.24 → 1.24Celtic0.74 → 0.76

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title52%38%−14
Rangers
Title48%62%+14

From the forecast before the match (3 March 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsCeltic
Expected goals0.882.03
Win15%64%
Expected Points0.662.12
Clean sheet13%42%

Hearts 15%Draw 21%Celtic 64%

Most likely score 0–2, 11%. Both sides score 51%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+6%8%4%2%4%7%3%1%2%4%4%3%1%1%1%11%11%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 March 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawCeltic win
Celtic
Title52%38%43%59%
Rangers
Title48%62%57%41%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. D1–128 FebHibernian (H)xG 1.70–2.66
  2. L0–524 FebRangers (A)xG 0.60–1.47
  3. W2–017 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.71–0.46
  4. W1–07 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.70–0.45
  5. W3–23 FebDundee FC (A)xG 1.76–1.69
  6. W2–027 JanAberdeen (H)xG 1.58–0.93

Celtic

  1. W7–128 FebDundee FC (H)xG 2.59–0.45
  2. W3–125 FebMotherwell (A)xG 2.87–0.69
  3. D1–117 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 1.49–0.95
  4. W2–17 FebHibernian (A)xG 2.07–1.00
  5. D1–13 FebAberdeen (A)xG 2.04–1.22
  6. W1–027 JanRoss County (H)xG 2.02–1.08

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsCeltic
Position3rd2nd
Played2828
Won, drawn, lost16–⁠4–⁠821–⁠5–⁠2
Points52 (1.86 per game)68 (2.43 per game)
Expected Points per game1.332.36
Goals36–⁠2868–⁠20
xG per game1.23–⁠1.412.67–⁠0.85
Home: points, xG per game1.79, 1.41–⁠1.302.36, 2.86–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game1.93, 1.06–⁠1.512.50, 2.48–⁠0.97
ManagerSteven Naismith (24)Brendan Rodgers (28)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHearts1.31, 3rdCeltic2.32, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.24, 4thCeltic0.74, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarHearts attack: 1.31Celtic attack: 2.322.321.31CelticHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarHearts defence: 1.24Celtic defence: 0.741.240.74

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−12%+4%+121%−30%
Counter-attacks−2%−35%+99%−15%
Set pieces−12%+14%+30%−30%
Penalties+8%+8%+116%−100%
Headers−34%+3%+51%−19%
Left side−9%−8%+98%−15%
Centre−23%average+82%−29%
Right side+9%+24%+115%−45%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side−9%−45%Centre−23%−29%Right side+9%−15%Open play−12%−30%Counter-attacks−2%−15%Set pieces−12%−30%Headers−34%−19%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+98%+24%Centre+82%averageRight side+115%−8%Open play+121%+4%Counter-attacks+99%−35%Set pieces+30%+14%Headers+51%+3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsCeltic

1.23xG2.67
1.41xG against0.85
56%Possession70%
13.4Shots20.4
13.6Shots against7.9
4.4Shots on target7.5
1.2Big chances3.9
25.7Touches in the opposition box45.6
460Passes666
76%Pass accuracy85%
6.6Corners9.6
55%Field tilt81%
43.3Final-third entries78.6
13.3Box entries24.8
13.2Passes per defensive action10.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.251.23
Ahead260.911.59
Behind201.621.58

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level402.730.76
Ahead452.701.00
Behind51.920.26

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.173–3
16–300.160.265–5
31–450.130.212–4
46–600.230.287–5
61–750.310.1410–5
76–900.280.359–6

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.390.1010–2
16–300.450.0711–2
31–450.330.179–2
46–600.440.1111–3
61–750.310.196–4
76–900.740.2221–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 28Kingsley 15Atkinson 6Sibbick 5Kent 28Halkett 4Rowles 22Oda 7Atkinson 6Forrest 5Nieuwe… 20NieuwenhofDevlin 8Denholm 6Baningime 17Fraser 3Boyce 3Grant 9Lowry 7Haring 5Cochrane 15Forrest 5Vargas 3Shankland 26Vargas 6Kingsley 6Cochrane 63-5-2 in 14 of 28 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (14), 4-2-3-1 (12), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 27Bain 1Johnston 23Ralston 5Carter-Vickers 15Nawrocki 5Lagerbielke 4Scales 26Taylor 25Bernabei 3O'Riley 27Maeda 1McGregor 28Iwata 4Bernardo 9Turnbull 9Hatate 4Maeda 9Yang 6Abada 5Furuhashi 22Idah 3Oh 3Palma 17Maeda 9Yang 24-3-3 in 27 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (27), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
16 December 2023Celtic0–2HeartsxG 1.60–0.34
22 October 2023Hearts1–4CelticxG 0.73–4.01
7 May 2023Hearts0–2CelticxG 0.28–1.39
8 March 2023Celtic3–1HeartsxG 2.08–0.62
22 October 2022Hearts3–4CelticxG 2.90–2.82
21 August 2022Celtic2–0HeartsxG 2.55–0.29

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 2, Celtic won 8, and 0 were drawn. Goals 11–23 and xG 0.92–2.41 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland282,5091910.470.13
Boyce7631130.360.20
Lowry10733010.110.23
Vargas131,320410.230.10

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Turnbull9676700.710.39
Oh3610500.940.05
Palma171,327690.460.44
O'Riley272,3801190.420.28

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.