Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hibernian 2–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 18 February 2023, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 26 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 16,068

Hibernian Fish 16', Hoppe 47'

Kilmarnock Vassell sent off 68'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianKilmarnock
Goals20
xG2.940.82
Expected Points2.680.22

Hibernian 86%Draw 11%Kilmarnock 4%

Most likely score 3–0, 13%. Final score 2–0, 11%.

Kilmarnock goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+4%4%2%4%5%1%8%8%3%3%3%1%1%1%11%11%13%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTVassell (Kilmarnock), red card 68'Hoppe on for McGeady, 36'Magennis on for Henderson, 63'Miller on for Cabraja, Tavares on for Cadden, and Doyle-Hayes on for Jeggo, 83'Robinson on for Jones, Polworth on for Alston, and Taylor on for Stokes, 46'Alebiosu on for Armstrong, 77'Power on for Lyons, 85'Fish 16'Hoppe 47'Hibernian 2.94Kilmarnock 0.82012340153045607590HTVassell (Kilmarnock), red card 68'Hoppe on for McGeady, 36'Magennis on for Henderson, 63'Miller on for Cabraja, Tavares on for Cadden, and Doyle-Hayes on for Jeggo, 83'Robinson on for Jones, Polworth on for Alston, and Taylor on for Stokes, 46'Alebiosu on for Armstrong, 77'Power on for Lyons, 85'Fish 16'Hoppe 47'2.940.82HibernianKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianKilmarnock

2.94 +1.68xG0.82 −0.14
2.03 +0.90xG on target0.31 −0.34
20 +4Shots9 −3
11 +6.1Shots on target3 0.0
3 +1.6Big chances1 −0.3
28 +5Touches in the opposition box20 0
66% +10Possession34% −11
553 +143Passes278 −58
81% +5Pass accuracy65% −1
68% +7Field tilt32% −12
57 +11Final-third entries23 −12
11 −1.8Box entries13 +3.8
11.9 +1Passes per defensive action21.0 +6
8 +2.1Corners4 −0.4
8 −8Tackles15 −2
7 −1.3Interceptions20 +8.8
19 0Clearances24 +6
2 +0.2Saves8 +4.9
12 0Fouls7 −6
5 +3.2Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Henderson 31', 0.69 xGHoppe 82', 0.33 xGYouan 27', 0.17 xGYouan 10', 0.11 xGCadden 41', 0.11 xGCabraja 10', 0.09 xGCadden 10', 0.09 xGHoppe 59', 0.08 xGCampbell 73', 0.07 xGFish 73', 0.07 xGCampbell 82', 0.06 xGHenderson 30', 0.05 xGHenderson 60', 0.03 xGJeggo 70', 0.02 xGMagennis 73', 0.02 xGYouan 87', 0.02 xGCampbell 4', 0.01 xGCampbell 42', 0.01 xGHoppe 47', 0.79 xG, goalFish 16', 0.11 xG, goal53%1.55 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.55 xG, 1 goal31%0.92 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.92 xG, 1 goal9%0.25 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals6%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals2%0.05 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Polworth 51', 0.24 xGRobinson 90', 0.17 xGStokes 12', 0.15 xGVassell 24', 0.09 xGMcKenzie 56', 0.06 xGMcKenzie 51', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 14', 0.03 xGRobinson 84', 0.03 xGArmstrong 56', 0.02 xG20%0.17 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.17 xG, 0 goals61%0.51 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.51 xG, 0 goals12%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianKilmarnock

2.66 15 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.56 6 shots, 0 goals
0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.21 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.26 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
16 min (18%) · Hibernian 0.41, Kilmarnock 0.18 xG
Hibernian ahead
74 min (82%) · Hibernian 2.53, Kilmarnock 0.64 xG

Line-ups

1122543261418324623MarshallCaddenFishHanlonCabrajaEgan-RileyJeggoHendersonCampbellMcGeadyYouanGoalYellow card83'83'83'63'36'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Lee Johnson202196241117810723WalkerMayoWrightStokesChambersArmstrongLyonsAlstonJonesMcKenzieVassellSent off46'77'85'46'46'Kilmarnock 4-5-1Derek McInnes

Hibernian substitutes

  • 36' Hoppe for McGeady · goal 47'
  • 63' Magennis for Henderson
  • 83' Miller for Cabraja
  • 83' Tavares for Cadden
  • 83' Doyle-Hayes for Jeggo

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Taylor for Stokes
  • 46' Polworth for Alston
  • 46' Robinson for Jones
  • 77' Alebiosu for Armstrong
  • 85' Power for Lyons

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0100
CaddenRB830.200.0210.0134
FishCB9010.170.0100.1097
HanlonCB900.000.0100.10104
Cabraja LB830.090.1710.2098
Egan-RileyDM900.000.0210.0687
JeggoDM830.020.0110.0221
HendersonRW630.770.1000.1663
CampbellAM900.160.0820.14101
McGeadyLW3610.000.2120.2441
YouanST900.300.7760.1410
HoppeFW5411.210.0000.1120
MagennisMF270.020.0500.0121
MillerDF70.000.0000.0002
TavaresMF70.000.000−0.0100
Doyle-HayesMF70.000.0000.0101

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0000.0220
MayoRB900.000.0100.0547
WrightCB900.000.0510.07415
StokesCB460.150.0000.0225
ChambersLB900.000.0910.20105
ArmstrongRM770.020.1110.0923
LyonsCM850.000.0100.0347
AlstonCM460.000.0000.0003
JonesCM460.000.1120.1923
McKenzieLM900.130.0310.0214
Vassell ST680.090.000−0.0101
TaylorDF440.000.0000.0118
PolworthMF440.240.0200.0112
RobinsonMF440.200.0100.1300
AlebiosuMF130.000.0100.0210
PowerMF50.000.000−0.0101

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Marshall and Hanlon: 4 passesCadden and Egan-Riley: 4 passesHenderson and Campbell: 4 passesCampbell and McGeady: 4 passesCampbell and Youan: 4 passesCadden and Campbell: 5 passesCabraja and Egan-Riley: 5 passesJeggo and McGeady: 5 passesFish and Egan-Riley: 6 passesFish and Henderson: 6 passesCabraja and Campbell: 6 passesHanlon and Cabraja: 7 passesCabraja and McGeady: 7 passesFish and Hanlon: 11 passesCadden and Fish: 12 passesCadden and Henderson: 12 passesMarshall: 7 completed passesCadden: 21 completed passesFish: 22 completed passesHanlon: 20 completed passesCabraja: 20 completed passesJeggo: 13 completed passesEgan-Riley: 13 completed passesHenderson: 17 completed passesCampbell: 14 completed passesMcGeady: 10 completed passesYouan: 4 completed passes1122543142618324623MarshallCaddenFishHanlonCabrajaJeggoEgan-RileyHendersonCampbellMcGeadyYouanStarters until 36' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Stokes and Jones: 3 passesStokes and McKenzie: 3 passesChambers and Lyons: 3 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 3 passesLyons and Vassell: 3 passesWalker and Stokes: 4 passesMayo and Wright: 4 passesArmstrong and Jones: 4 passesChambers and Armstrong: 5 passesChambers and Jones: 5 passesMayo and Armstrong: 6 passesMayo and Lyons: 6 passesWalker: 5 completed passesMayo: 10 completed passesStokes: 6 completed passesWright: 11 completed passesChambers: 12 completed passesArmstrong: 8 completed passesJones: 7 completed passesAlston: 0 completed passesLyons: 12 completed passesMcKenzie: 4 completed passesVassell: 2 completed passes202619241110817723WalkerMayoStokesWrightChambersArmstrongJonesAlstonLyonsMcKenzieVassellStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
FishHanlon16
CabrajaHanlon14
HanlonFish12
Egan-RileyFish12
FishEgan-Riley12

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PolworthMayo8
MayoChambers8
WrightMcKenzie7
ChambersMcKenzie5
LyonsMayo5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

8+3.59+3.014+2.55−1.74−1.77+1.01−3.47+0.57−0.74−1.63−2.01−2.28+2.56−1.53−0.79+4.83+0.46+1.48+3.52−0.21−0.90−0.80−2.03+0.40−0.91+0.30−0.90−0.70−0.93−4.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Kilmarnock

9+3.69+2.015+2.76−0.93−2.010+2.511+4.22−3.912+5.58+0.27+0.39+3.44+0.48+2.75+0.14−0.83−1.22−0.21−2.83−1.05+2.62+0.22+1.20−1.92−0.81−0.40−0.91+0.40−0.40−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.030.010.030.040.040.070.040.030.040.050.080.010.080.060.090.010.030.100.050.060.180.14LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.050.010.030.010.010.010.060.020.02−0.010.030.080.21−0.050.30LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackHibernian1.21 → 1.25Kilmarnock1.00 → 0.97Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.15 → 1.12Kilmarnock1.37 → 1.42

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six87%93%+6
Kilmarnock
Top six<1%<1%0
11th24%27%+3
Bottom18%23%+5
Ross County
11th26%26%0
Bottom42%40%−2
Aberdeen
Top six51%49%−2

From the forecast before the match (18 February 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianKilmarnock
Expected goals1.620.84
Win55%19%
Expected Points1.920.82
Clean sheet43%20%

Hibernian 55%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 19%

Most likely score 1–0, 13%. Both sides score 46%.

Kilmarnock goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+9%7%3%5%1%9%4%1%6%5%2%2%2%13%12%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 February 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawKilmarnock win
Hibernian
Top six87%93%84%76%
Kilmarnock
Top six<1%<1%<1%2%
11th24%27%23%18%
Bottom18%23%17%9%
Ross County
11th26%26%26%25%
Bottom42%40%43%46%
Aberdeen
Top six51%49%52%55%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. W1–04 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.64–0.36
  2. D1–131 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.03–0.69
  3. W6–028 JanAberdeen (H)xG 2.60–0.52
  4. D2–214 JanDundee United (H)xG 0.80–0.87
  5. W3–28 JanMotherwell (A)xG 1.73–1.64
  6. L0–32 JanHearts (A)xG 1.19–1.76

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–34 FebLivingston (A)xG 1.12–1.45
  2. W1–01 FebDundee United (H)xG 2.71–1.37
  3. L0–328 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.38–1.74
  4. L2–318 JanRangers (H)xG 0.79–1.49
  5. L0–27 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.08–3.48
  6. D0–02 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.70–0.35

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianKilmarnock
Position5th10th
Played2525
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠4–⁠116–⁠5–⁠14
Points34 (1.36 per game)23 (0.92 per game)
Expected Points per game1.461.16
Goals37–⁠3821–⁠44
xG per game1.26–⁠1.150.96–⁠1.31
Home: points, xG per game1.75, 1.42–⁠1.031.75, 1.30–⁠1.11
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.11–⁠1.260.15, 0.65–⁠1.49
ManagerLee Johnson (25)Derek McInnes (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackHibernian1.21, 4thKilmarnock1.00, 7thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.15, 3rdKilmarnock1.37, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebHibernian attack: 1.21Kilmarnock attack: 1.001.211.00KilmarnockHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebHibernian defence: 1.15Kilmarnock defence: 1.371.371.15

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−9%−25%−32%−2%
Counter-attacks+57%+21%−37%−18%
Set pieces+24%−8%+23%+24%
Penalties−38%+44%−79%−18%
Headers+8%−19%+17%−9%
Left side+8%−34%+6%−4%
Centre−18%−11%−36%+2%
Right side+26%−17%−16%+13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+8%+13%Centre−18%+2%Right side+26%−4%Open play−9%−2%Counter-attacks+57%−18%Set pieces+24%+24%Headers+8%−9%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side+6%−17%Centre−36%−11%Right side−16%−34%Open play−32%−25%Counter-attacks−37%+21%Set pieces+23%−8%Headers+17%−19%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianKilmarnock

1.26xG0.96
1.15xG against1.31
56%Possession45%
15.6Shots11.6
10.4Shots against12.5
4.9Shots on target3.0
1.4Big chances1.3
22.8Touches in the opposition box19.6
410Passes336
76%Pass accuracy66%
5.9Corners4.4
61%Field tilt45%
45.6Final-third entries34.6
12.8Box entries9.2
11.3Passes per defensive action14.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.091.11
Ahead231.451.18
Behind331.301.16

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.041.12
Ahead171.151.17
Behind390.811.53

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.104–8
16–300.090.163–5
31–450.240.218–5
46–600.270.246–7
61–750.230.158–6
76–900.260.288–7

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.193–8
16–300.130.252–10
31–450.200.204–6
46–600.280.165–5
61–750.120.184–7
76–900.110.323–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMarshall 25Cadden 18Porteous 4Fish 1Bushiri 13Porteous 12Fish 4Hanlon 21Cabraja 11Stevenson 9Kukharevych 3Kenneh 13Campbell 8Porteous 4Newell 15Boyle 6Cadden 5Magennis 3Campbell 8Newell 6Cabraja 3Youan 12Newell 3McGeady 3Youan 6Kukharevych 6Nisbet 54-2-3-1 in 10 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (10), 4-1-4-1 (6), 3-5-2 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 15Hemming 10Alebiosu 11Mayo 10Armstrong 2Taylor 17Wright 16Mayo 9Stokes 5Chrisene 7McInroy 6Polworth 2Armstrong 10McKenzie 5Jones 3Polworth 10Armstrong 4Alston 4Power 20Donnelly 8Alebiosu 1McKenzie 9Jones 6Taylor 3Doidge 9Cameron 5Robinson 4Lafferty 8Vassell 5Shaw 54-4-2 in 8 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 November 2022Kilmarnock1–0HibernianxG 0.96–0.85
3 September 2022Hibernian1–0KilmarnockxG 1.44–0.39
16 January 2021Hibernian2–0KilmarnockxG 0.68–0.64
24 October 2020Kilmarnock0–1HibernianxG 0.97–1.50
1 August 2020Hibernian2–1KilmarnockxG 1.18–0.70

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 4, Kilmarnock won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 6–2 and xG 1.13–0.73 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet7528810.630.02
Kukharevych10744310.390.13
Boyle10936510.330.13
Youan191,665460.210.15

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong181,648640.190.21
Shaw7628000.250.02
Jones10794000.100.16
Doidge9908100.220.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.