Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hibernian 3–1 Motherwell

Saturday 11 January 2025, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 23 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Colin Steven · Attendance 15,829

Hibernian Boyle 27', 81' (pen), Triantis 30'

Motherwell Slattery 76' · Vale sent off 90+3'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianMotherwell
Goals31
xG2.220.22
Non-penalty xG1.430.22
Expected Points2.880.07

Hibernian 94%Draw 5%Motherwell 1%

Most likely score 2–0, 39%. Final score 3–1, 5%.

Motherwell goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+1%13%3%9%21%5%4%1%39%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTVale (Motherwell), red card 90+3'Obita on for N. Cadden, 19'Miller on for C. Cadden, Kwon on for Levitt, and Hoilett on for Gayle, 62'Moriah-Welsh on for Campbell, 77'Casey on for McGinn, 33'Kaleta on for Wilson and Maswanhise on for Halliday, 46'Ebiye on for Watt and Slattery on for Sparrow, 70'Boyle 27'Triantis 30'Boyle 81' (pen)Slattery 76'Hibernian 2.22Motherwell 0.2201230153045607590HTVale (Motherwell), red card 90+3'Obita on for N. Cadden, 19'Miller on for C. Cadden, Kwon on for Levitt, and Hoilett on for Gayle, 62'Moriah-Welsh on for Campbell, 77'Casey on for McGinn, 33'Kaleta on for Wilson and Maswanhise on for Halliday, 46'Ebiye on for Watt and Slattery on for Sparrow, 70'Boyle 27'Triantis 30'Boyle 81' (pen)Slattery 76'2.220.22HibernianMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianMotherwell

2.22 +0.50xG0.22 −0.95
1.43Non-penalty xG0.22
2.65 +1.13xG on target0.31 −0.91
8 −5Shots4 −6
3 −1.2Shots on target2 −1.5
4 +1.5Big chances0 −1.9
17 −7Touches in the opposition box7 −12
55% +8Possession45% +7
497 +162Passes408 +113
84% +12Pass accuracy79% +12
56% +4Field tilt44% +11
28 −8Final-third entries21 −4
10 −0.2Box entries6 −2.0
18.4 +3Passes per defensive action30.6 +12
3 −3.1Corners6 +1.4
12 −2Tackles6 −10
5 −2.6Interceptions6 −2.2
40 +10Clearances26 −4
1 −1.9Saves0 −3.9
11 0Fouls13 +2
3 +1.5Offsides1 −1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Triantis 34', 0.21 xGGayle 34', 0.10 xGHoilett 90', 0.03 xGCampbell 11', 0.02 xGObita 27', 0.02 xGBoyle 27', 0.90 xG, goalTriantis 30', 0.15 xG, goal78%1.11 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.11 xG, 1 goal7%0.10 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 0 goals14%0.20 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 1 goal1%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Watt 61', 0.06 xGWatt 51', 0.05 xGMaswanhise 66', 0.02 xGSlattery 76', 0.09 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals50%0.11 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals50%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianMotherwell

1.12 5 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.13 3 shots, 0 goals
0.31 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.09 1 shot, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
27 min (28%) · Hibernian 0.94, Motherwell 0.00 xG
Hibernian ahead
69 min (72%) · Hibernian 1.27, Motherwell 0.22 xG

Line-ups

13533151226619321034SmithO'HoraBushiriIredaleC. CaddenTriantisLevittN. CaddenCampbellBoyleGayleYellow cardGoalGoalGoal62'62'19'77'62'Hibernian 3-4-1-2David Gray116520271154237752MairMcGinnBalmerBlaneyO'DonnellSparrowHallidayAndrewsWilsonValeWattYellow cardYellow cardSent off33'70'46'46'70'Motherwell 3-5-2Stuart Kettlewell

Hibernian substitutes

  • 19' Obita for N. Cadden
  • 62' Miller for C. Cadden
  • 62' Kwon for Levitt
  • 62' Hoilett for Gayle
  • 77' Moriah-Welsh for Campbell

Motherwell substitutes

  • 33' Casey for McGinn · yellow card 45+3'
  • 46' Kaleta for Wilson
  • 46' Maswanhise for Halliday
  • 70' Slattery for Sparrow · goal 76'
  • 70' Ebiye for Watt

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SmithGK900.000.0000.0000
O'HoraCB900.000.0210.12119
BushiriCB900.000.0010.02111
Iredale CB900.000.0110.11816
C. CaddenRWB620.000.0100.0031
TriantisCM9010.350.0300.0754
LevittCM620.000.0200.0321
N. CaddenLWB190.000.000−0.0101
CampbellAM770.020.0300.0240
BoyleST9021.690.1400.2040
GayleST620.100.0110.0321
ObitaDF710.020.0000.0343
MillerDF280.000.0000.0117
KwonMF280.000.011−0.0101
HoilettMF280.030.0000.0112
Moriah-WelshMF130.000.000−0.0100

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MairGK900.000.0000.0010
McGinnCB330.000.0100.0523
BalmerCB900.000.0000.03111
Blaney CB900.000.0400.1287
O'Donnell RWB900.000.0910.0944
SparrowCM700.000.000−0.0413
HallidayCM460.000.0000.0001
AndrewsCM900.000.0200.0323
WilsonLWB460.000.000−0.0201
Vale ST900.000.0100.0230
WattST700.110.000−0.0110
Casey DF570.000.0000.0445
KaletaMF440.000.0110.0671
MaswanhiseFW440.020.0910.1151
SlatteryMF2010.090.000−0.0100
EbiyeMF200.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Mair and O'Donnell: 3 passesBlaney and Watt: 3 passesBlaney and Vale: 3 passesO'Donnell and Halliday: 3 passesMcGinn and Vale: 4 passesO'Donnell and Andrews: 4 passesMair and Blaney: 6 passesMcGinn and Balmer: 6 passesMcGinn and Halliday: 6 passesBalmer and O'Donnell: 6 passesBlaney and McGinn: 7 passesBlaney and Wilson: 7 passesMair: 7 completed passesBlaney: 17 completed passesMcGinn: 17 completed passesBalmer: 9 completed passesO'Donnell: 10 completed passesWilson: 8 completed passesAndrews: 5 completed passesSparrow: 4 completed passesHalliday: 9 completed passesWatt: 4 completed passesVale: 3 completed passes120165223547115277MairBlaneyMcGinnBalmerO'DonnellWilsonAndrewsSparrowHallidayWattValeStarters until 33' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
BushiriO'Hora30
O'HoraBushiri28
BushiriIredale23
IredaleBushiri14
IredaleObita14

Motherwell

FromToPasses
BlaneyBalmer10
WilsonBlaney9
BlaneyVale7
BalmerBlaney7
SparrowBlaney6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

2−2.54−2.515−1.25−2.63−1.710+3.56+1.26+0.17+0.56−0.58+3.16+2.46+3.04−0.88+3.32−1.94+0.55+2.710+7.03−1.31−1.33+1.60−1.33+1.52−0.50−0.70−0.41+0.30−0.51+0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Motherwell

6+1.49+2.210+2.12−4.69+2.96−0.33−3.310+4.09+1.74−1.15+1.06+2.93−1.68+1.95+1.01−2.24+2.14+0.96+1.91−1.50−1.710.00−1.51−0.40−0.90−0.60−0.70−0.10−0.48−10.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.040.030.020.060.010.020.050.040.010.040.010.010.030.010.010.020.060.01−0.02−0.010.17LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.020.010.010.020.020.010.010.020.030.020.020.030.020.010.010.02−0.010.050.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackHibernian1.41 → 1.46Motherwell1.16 → 1.13Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.27 → 1.23Motherwell1.44 → 1.48

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six62%72%+10
11th2%1%−1
Bottom<1%<1%0
Motherwell
Top six67%58%−9
11th3%4%+1

From the forecast before the match (11 January 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianMotherwell
Expected goals1.820.99
Win56%20%
Expected Points1.930.83
Clean sheet37%16%

Hibernian 56%Draw 24%Motherwell 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 53%.

Motherwell goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+7%5%3%1%5%2%5%2%6%6%3%1%3%3%1%1%1%10%11%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 January 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawMotherwell win
Hibernian
Top six62%72%55%43%
11th2%1%2%4%
Bottom<1%<1%<1%1%
Motherwell
Top six67%58%71%86%
11th3%4%2%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. D3–35 JanRangers (H)xG 1.89–1.83
  2. D1–12 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.27–0.96
  3. W1–029 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 2.32–0.25
  4. W2–126 DecHearts (A)xG 1.93–0.70
  5. W3–121 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.44–1.90
  6. W3–114 DecRoss County (H)xG 4.80–1.22

Motherwell

  1. D0–08 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 0.39–1.72
  2. W2–05 JanAberdeen (H)xG 1.36–0.89
  3. L0–12 JanHearts (A)xG 1.25–1.97
  4. D2–229 DecRangers (H)xG 0.52–2.23
  5. L0–426 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.23–3.55
  6. D1–120 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 0.76–1.03

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianMotherwell
Position8th5th
Played2222
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠8–⁠89–⁠4–⁠9
Points26 (1.18 per game)31 (1.41 per game)
Expected Points per game1.511.17
Goals31–⁠3527–⁠34
xG per game1.72–⁠1.481.17–⁠1.58
Home: points, xG per game1.27, 1.86–⁠1.321.64, 1.27–⁠1.46
Away: points, xG per game1.09, 1.57–⁠1.651.18, 1.07–⁠1.70
ManagerDavid Gray (24)Stuart Kettlewell (74)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackHibernian1.41, 3rdMotherwell1.16, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.27, 3rdMotherwell1.44, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanHibernian attack: 1.41Motherwell attack: 1.161.411.16MotherwellHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanHibernian defence: 1.27Motherwell defence: 1.441.441.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+3%−9%−22%+15%
Counter-attacks+3%+77%−45%+10%
Set pieces+48%+16%+18%+2%
Penalties+64%−18%−73%+9%
Headers+21%+5%+40%+12%
Left side−7%−18%−33%+39%
Centre+32%+19%−2%−4%
Right side+2%+3%−17%+12%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdMotherwell concededLeft side−7%+12%Centre+32%−4%Right side+2%+39%Open play+3%+15%Counter-attacks+3%+10%Set pieces+48%+2%Headers+21%+12%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHibernian concededLeft side−33%+3%Centre−2%+19%Right side−17%−18%Open play−22%−9%Counter-attacks−45%+77%Set pieces+18%+16%Headers+40%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianMotherwell

1.72xG1.17
1.48xG against1.58
47%Possession38%
13.2Shots10.0
12.3Shots against15.0
4.2Shots on target3.5
2.5Big chances1.9
23.8Touches in the opposition box19.2
335Passes295
72%Pass accuracy66%
6.1Corners4.6
51%Field tilt33%
36.3Final-third entries25.2
10.2Box entries8.0
15.0Passes per defensive action18.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.691.42
Ahead221.701.38
Behind291.771.66

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.281.48
Ahead230.921.51
Behind241.211.82

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.292–6
16–300.280.244–5
31–450.290.168–6
46–600.230.203–4
61–750.410.196–1
76–900.330.408–13

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.262–5
16–300.300.218–4
31–450.120.337–4
46–600.150.372–9
61–750.170.172–7
76–900.320.236–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTBursik 13Smith 9Bushiri 10Boyle 5Obita 4Ekpiteta 12O'Hora 19Iredale 9Miller 12C. Cadden 10Triantis 15Kwon 4Newell 15Obita 10N. Cadden 8Kwon 7Triantis 3Campbell 7Hoilett 4Boyle 3Kukharevych 12Boyle 5Campbell 1Hoilett 8Youan 7N. Cadden 43-4-1-2 in 7 of 22 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (7), 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-3-3 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTOxborough 22Casey 20McGinn 6O'Donnell 2Gordon 18Balmer 11Blaney 7Seddon 2Kaleta 11O'Donnell 9Wilson 1Halliday 17Miller 6Gordon 1Zdravkovski 8Wilson 6Paton 3Wilson 12Seddon 3Maswanhise 2Miller 11Zdravkovski 4Sparrow 3Maswanhise 9Watt 3Stamatelopoulos 3Stamatelopoulos 10Robinson 5Watt 33-4-2-1 in 7 of 22 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (7), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (3), 3-5-1-1 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 November 2024Motherwell0–3HibernianxG 0.75–3.15
5 October 2024Hibernian1–2MotherwellxG 1.35–1.23
15 May 2024Hibernian3–0MotherwellxG 1.34–0.85
13 April 2024Motherwell1–1HibernianxG 0.97–1.51
2 January 2024Hibernian2–2MotherwellxG 0.72–1.55
13 August 2023Motherwell2–1HibernianxG 0.60–0.86

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 6, Motherwell won 4, and 5 were drawn. Goals 23–17 and xG 1.44–1.08 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
N. Cadden121,027430.300.33
Hoilett12954210.310.28
Kukharevych13983300.570.02
Youan11894210.350.12

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ebiye3502200.430.05
Miller191,671260.150.24
Stamatelopoulos13897510.340.04
Watt7919100.250.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.