Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

St. Mirren 0–3 Celtic

Tuesday 2 January 2024, 17:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 22 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee David Munro · Attendance 6,943

St. Mirren Olusanya sent off 45+3'

Celtic Maeda 1', O'Riley 6', Taylor 60'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenCeltic
Goals03
xG0.183.62
Expected Points0.032.95

St. Mirren <1%Draw 2%Celtic 97%

Most likely score 0–3, 20%. Final score 0–3, 20%.

Celtic goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+1%6%14%13%10%1%3%4%4%2%2%20%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTOlusanya (St. Mirren), red card 45+3'Ayunga on for Mandron and Bwomono on for Flynn, 65'Greive on for Boyd-Munce, 77'Yang on for Palma, 55'Lagerbielke on for Nawrocki and Abada on for Maeda, 63'Oh on for Furuhashi and Hatate on for Bernardo, 71'Maeda 1'O'Riley 6'Taylor 60'Celtic 3.62St. Mirren 0.18012340153045607590HTOlusanya (St. Mirren), red card 45+3'Ayunga on for Mandron and Bwomono on for Flynn, 65'Greive on for Boyd-Munce, 77'Yang on for Palma, 55'Lagerbielke on for Nawrocki and Abada on for Maeda, 63'Oh on for Furuhashi and Hatate on for Bernardo, 71'Maeda 1'O'Riley 6'Taylor 60'3.620.18St. MirrenCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenCeltic

0.18 −0.86xG3.62 +0.86
0.00 −1.18xG on target3.86 +1.11
3 −7Shots24 +3
0 −3.4Shots on target11 +3.2
0 −1.8Big chances7 +3.0
12 −5Touches in the opposition box53 +6
27% −18Possession73% +3
272 −61Passes733 +72
62% −3Pass accuracy88% +3
8% −35Field tilt92% +12
16 −17Final-third entries88 +12
5 −3.8Box entries33 +8.2
29.7 +13Passes per defensive action9.6 −1
1 −3.7Corners12 +1.8
11 −4Tackles12 −4
5 −3.0Interceptions4 −1.2
27 +3Clearances12 −3
8 +5.0Saves0 −1.6
9 −1.8Fouls8 −1.6
1 −0.6Offsides1 −1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Kiltie 58', 0.10 xGOlusanya 13', 0.05 xGTaylor 56', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals82%0.14 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals18%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Yang 77', 0.38 xGBernardo 60', 0.34 xGA. Johnston 89', 0.32 xGOh 90', 0.24 xGAbada 73', 0.21 xGFuruhashi 69', 0.19 xGAbada 81', 0.14 xGPalma 53', 0.08 xGYang 66', 0.07 xGOh 77', 0.07 xGMcGregor 49', 0.05 xGScales 78', 0.05 xGMcGregor 20', 0.04 xGMaeda 58', 0.04 xGHatate 76', 0.04 xGHatate 76', 0.04 xGO'Riley 90+3', 0.04 xGNawrocki 30', 0.03 xGO'Riley 37', 0.03 xGScales 48', 0.03 xGBernardo 24', 0.02 xGMaeda 1', 0.67 xG, goalO'Riley 6', 0.29 xG, goalTaylor 60', 0.19 xG, goal25%0.89 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 0.89 xG, 1 goal59%2.14 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 2.14 xG, 2 goals10%0.37 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.37 xG, 0 goals6%0.22 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenCeltic

0.18 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play2.92 15 shots, 2 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.70 9 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
1 min (1%) · St. Mirren 0.00, Celtic 0.67 xG
Celtic ahead
95 min (99%) · St. Mirren 0.18, Celtic 2.95 xG

Line-ups

1213522815113209HemmingBoltonGogicTaylorFraserFlynnBoyd-MunceKiltieTanserOlusanyaMandronSent off65'77'65'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson1217533342283887HartA. JohnstonNawrockiScalesTaylorO'RileyMcGregorBernardoMaedaFuruhashiPalmaGoalGoalGoal63'71'63'71'55'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 65' Bwomono for Flynn
  • 65' Ayunga for Mandron
  • 77' Greive for Boyd-Munce

Celtic substitutes

  • 55' Yang for Palma
  • 63' Lagerbielke for Nawrocki
  • 63' Abada for Maeda
  • 71' Hatate for Bernardo
  • 71' Oh for Furuhashi

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0100.0762
BoltonCB900.000.0000.03313
GogicCB900.000.0000.0435
TaylorCB900.030.0100.0236
FraserRWB900.000.1300.1546
FlynnCM650.000.000−0.0202
Boyd-MunceCM770.000.050−0.0312
KiltieCM900.100.060−0.0264
TanserLWB900.000.0110.0464
Olusanya ST450.050.0100.0220
MandronST650.000.050−0.0204
BwomonoMF250.000.0000.0003
AyungaFW250.000.000−0.0100
GreiveFW130.000.0000.0001

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0200
A. JohnstonRB900.320.5920.25194
NawrockiCB630.030.0200.12103
ScalesCB900.080.0600.25195
TaylorLB9010.191.0350.55126
O'RileyCM90110.360.4240.3082
McGregorCM900.080.1910.1291
BernardoCM7120.360.2930.1025
MaedaRW6310.720.020−0.0721
FuruhashiST710.190.0100.0300
PalmaLW550.080.1320.0330
YangFW350.450.1810.1470
LagerbielkeDF270.000.0300.1092
AbadaFW270.360.0510.0520
HatateMF190.080.0900.0020
OhFW190.310.0100.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Hemming and Taylor: 3 passesHemming and Tanser: 3 passesMandron and Olusanya: 3 passesHemming and Mandron: 5 passesGogic and Taylor: 5 passesTanser and Mandron: 5 passesGogic and Bolton: 6 passesTaylor and Boyd-Munce: 6 passesTanser and Boyd-Munce: 6 passesTaylor and Mandron: 8 passesTaylor and Tanser: 10 passesHemming: 8 completed passesGogic: 8 completed passesTaylor: 21 completed passesBolton: 8 completed passesFraser: 0 completed passesTanser: 16 completed passesKiltie: 3 completed passesFlynn: 2 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 12 completed passesMandron: 8 completed passesOlusanya: 2 completed passes1135222311815920HemmingGogicTaylorBoltonFraserTanserKiltieFlynnBoyd-MunceMandronOlusanyaStarters until 45+3' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Hart and Nawrocki: 6 passesNawrocki and McGregor: 6 passesO'Riley and Maeda: 6 passesBernardo and McGregor: 6 passesScales and Bernardo: 7 passesNawrocki and Taylor: 7 passesScales and McGregor: 8 passesNawrocki and O'Riley: 8 passesTaylor and Bernardo: 9 passesTaylor and McGregor: 10 passesO'Riley and Palma: 10 passesMcGregor and Palma: 10 passesA. Johnston and O'Riley: 12 passesScales and Palma: 12 passesNawrocki and Maeda: 12 passesA. Johnston and McGregor: 13 passesTaylor and O'Riley: 13 passesHart and Scales: 14 passesO'Riley and McGregor: 14 passesA. Johnston and Maeda: 16 passesA. Johnston and Nawrocki: 22 passesTaylor and Palma: 23 passesScales and Nawrocki: 27 passesScales and Taylor: 41 passesHart: 20 completed passesA. Johnston: 43 completed passesScales: 62 completed passesNawrocki: 46 completed passesTaylor: 53 completed passesO'Riley: 37 completed passesBernardo: 19 completed passesMcGregor: 37 completed passesMaeda: 19 completed passesFuruhashi: 1 completed passesPalma: 27 completed passes1251733328423887HartA. JohnstonScalesNawrockiTaylorO'RileyBernardoMcGregorMaedaFuruhashiPalmaStarters until 55' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
TanserTaylor12
TaylorTanser7
TaylorMandron6
TaylorGogic6
KiltieMandron6

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesTaylor32
TaylorScales26
McGregorTaylor21
O'RileyMcGregor19
McGregorO'Riley19

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

7+1.86−0.928+13.513+4.81−5.011+3.27−0.56+1.62−6.78+0.45−1.35+0.230.05−1.65−1.43−0.90−2.90−2.72−0.90−3.72−0.31−1.00−0.81−0.30−2.20−1.10−0.21+0.11+0.70−1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Celtic

2−1.06+2.12−3.91−3.53−2.96+1.66+2.46−0.52−2.84+0.43−0.73−3.58+3.94+0.94+1.730.07+1.93−0.72−0.92+0.47+4.140.01+0.10−0.61+0.40−0.73+1.75−4.03−4.83−4.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.050.010.010.010.040.020.010.020.030.02−0.01−0.010.010.04−0.05−0.020.03−0.07−0.040.010.14LessMore

Celtic

0.010.030.030.040.020.030.060.050.120.040.070.080.140.070.060.080.08−0.070.060.070.32−0.060.050.150.45LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackSt. Mirren1.06 → 1.03Celtic2.32 → 2.37Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.34 → 1.39Celtic0.73 → 0.71

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six61%57%−4
11th1%1%0
Celtic
Title65%69%+4
Rangers
Title35%31%−4
Hibernian
Top six55%56%+1
11th3%2%−1
Bottom1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (2 January 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenCeltic
Expected goals0.732.21
Win10%71%
Expected Points0.502.31
Clean sheet11%48%

St. Mirren 10%Draw 19%Celtic 71%

Most likely score 0–2, 13%. Both sides score 46%.

Celtic goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+6%5%2%1%3%9%7%4%2%1%3%3%3%1%11%13%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 January 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawCeltic win
St. Mirren
Top six61%79%67%57%
11th1%<1%1%1%
Celtic
Title65%50%57%69%
Rangers
Title35%50%43%31%
Hibernian
Top six55%46%54%56%
11th3%3%3%2%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. W3–030 DecAberdeen (A)xG 2.73–1.03
  2. L0–127 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 0.46–0.81
  3. L0–223 DecHearts (A)xG 0.64–1.20
  4. D0–016 DecMotherwell (H)xG 1.25–1.00
  5. W2–09 DecRoss County (H)xG 0.94–0.62
  6. L0–16 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.93–1.98

Celtic

  1. W2–130 DecRangers (H)xG 0.64–0.97
  2. W3–026 DecDundee FC (A)xG 2.79–0.13
  3. W2–023 DecLivingston (H)xG 3.66–0.00
  4. L0–216 DecHearts (H)xG 1.60–0.34
  5. L1–210 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.68–2.06
  6. W4–16 DecHibernian (H)xG 4.10–1.50

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenCeltic
Position5th1st
Played2121
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠5–⁠816–⁠3–⁠2
Points29 (1.38 per game)51 (2.43 per game)
Expected Points per game1.162.37
Goals24–⁠2550–⁠15
xG per game1.04–⁠1.382.76–⁠0.87
Home: points, xG per game1.80, 1.15–⁠1.112.36, 3.08–⁠0.71
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.94–⁠1.632.50, 2.41–⁠1.04
ManagerStephen Robinson (16)Brendan Rodgers (21)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackSt. Mirren1.06, 9thCeltic2.32, 1stDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.34, 6thCeltic0.73, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecSt. Mirren attack: 1.06Celtic attack: 2.322.321.06CelticSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecSt. Mirren defence: 1.34Celtic defence: 0.731.340.73

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−29%−6%+120%−18%
Counter-attacks−11%+18%+164%−69%
Set pieces−46%−5%+38%−38%
Penalties+57%+57%+136%−100%
Headers−13%−6%+39%−28%
Left side−43%−2%+114%−14%
Centre−38%+9%+87%−26%
Right side−12%−34%+117%−47%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdCeltic concededLeft side−43%−47%Centre−38%−26%Right side−12%−14%Open play−29%−18%Counter-attacks−11%−69%Set pieces−46%−38%Headers−13%−28%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+114%−34%Centre+87%+9%Right side+117%−2%Open play+120%−6%Counter-attacks+164%+18%Set pieces+38%−5%Headers+39%−6%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenCeltic

1.04xG2.76
1.38xG against0.87
45%Possession70%
10.0Shots21.4
12.3Shots against7.6
3.4Shots on target7.8
1.8Big chances4.0
17.4Touches in the opposition box47.1
333Passes661
65%Pass accuracy85%
4.7Corners10.2
43%Field tilt80%
32.6Final-third entries75.7
8.8Box entries24.8
16.7Passes per defensive action10.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.881.29
Ahead251.331.50
Behind191.041.43

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level422.710.66
Ahead422.921.17
Behind61.940.16

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.075–1
16–300.130.231–5
31–450.110.244–4
46–600.240.196–2
61–750.160.231–5
76–900.220.407–8

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.360.115–2
16–300.510.088–2
31–450.300.186–1
46–600.520.109–1
61–750.310.184–4
76–900.770.2218–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 21Fraser 19Bolton 2Gogic 21Taylor 18Dunne 3Strain 11Small 3Flynn 3Baccus 12Jamieson 2Greive 1O'Hara 11Boyd-Munce 10Kiltie 5Tanser 17O'Hara 3Boyd-Munce 1McMenamin 12Tanser 4O'Hara 3Mandron 8Olusanya 7Ayunga 4Kiltie 16Ayunga 3Mandron 13-4-3 in 9 of 21 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (9), 3-4-2-1 (6), 3-5-2 (5), 5-4-1 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 20Bain 1A. Johnston 17Ralston 4Carter-Vickers 13Lagerbielke 4Phillips 3Scales 19Nawrocki 2Taylor 21O'Riley 20McGregor 21Iwata 2Turnbull 9Bernardo 5Hatate 4Maeda 8Yang 5M. Johnston 3Furuhashi 18Oh 3Palma 13Maeda 6Yang 24-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 November 2023Celtic2–1St. MirrenxG 3.89–0.62
20 May 2023Celtic2–2St. MirrenxG 1.73–1.24
5 March 2023St. Mirren1–5CelticxG 0.79–2.48
18 January 2023Celtic4–0St. MirrenxG 2.25–0.53
18 September 2022St. Mirren2–0CelticxG 0.82–1.18
2 March 2022Celtic2–0St. MirrenxG 1.60–0.36

11 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 2, Celtic won 7, and 2 were drawn. Goals 9–28 and xG 0.69–2.37 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Mandron9830310.270.07
Kiltie211,671330.210.12
Olusanya7756110.260.05
O'Hara171,482310.230.06

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Turnbull9675700.710.39
Oh3581500.940.05
Palma131,036590.410.50
Furuhashi181,444830.670.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.