Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Celtic 2–1 St. Mirren

Wednesday 1 November 2023, 19:45 · Celtic Park · Round 11 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 58,168

Celtic Turnbull 18', Oh 83'

St. Mirren McMenamin 7'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticSt. Mirren
Goals21
xG3.890.62
Non-penalty xG3.100.62
Expected Points2.900.06

Celtic 96%Draw 4%St. Mirren 1%

Most likely score 4–0, 13%. Final score 2–1, 5%.

St. Mirren goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+2%2%7%5%1%2%3%7%2%7%6%1%12%9%13%10%9%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

02460153045607590HTMaeda on for Palma and Yang on for Forrest, 56'Holm on for O'Riley, 68'Oh on for Turnbull, 74'Greive on for McMenamin and Mandron on for Olusanya, 65'Dunne on for Strain, 81'Flynn on for Boyd-Munce and Nachmani on for Kiltie, 88'Turnbull 18'Oh 83'McMenamin 7'Celtic 3.89St. Mirren 0.6202460153045607590HTMaeda on for Palma and Yang on for Forrest, 56'Holm on for O'Riley, 68'Oh on for Turnbull, 74'Greive on for McMenamin and Mandron on for Olusanya, 65'Dunne on for Strain, 81'Flynn on for Boyd-Munce and Nachmani on for Kiltie, 88'Turnbull 18'Oh 83'McMenamin 7'3.890.62CelticSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticSt. Mirren

3.89 +1.31xG0.62 −0.49
3.10Non-penalty xG0.62
2.73 −0.04xG on target0.77 −0.63
23 +4.5Shots6 −3.6
8 +0.5Shots on target2 −1.6
6 +1.9Big chances2 −0.4
41 +2Touches in the opposition box13 −2
75% +8Possession25% −18
749 +88Passes236 −68
87% +4Pass accuracy58% −4
91% +17Field tilt9% −30
92 +27Final-third entries25 −4
30 +9.2Box entries8 −1.2
7.9 −3Passes per defensive action26.9 +10
12 +4.5Corners2 −2.1
15 −1Tackles15 +1
3 −3.5Interceptions10 +1.3
18 +2Clearances25 −2
1 −1.0Saves7 +4.2
9 −0.7Fouls12 +0.8
0 −1.2Offsides5 +3.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Furuhashi 90+3', 0.64 xGPalma 29', 0.38 xGForrest 55', 0.25 xGFuruhashi 68', 0.22 xGTurnbull 27', 0.13 xGPhillips 71', 0.13 xGOh 80', 0.12 xGPhillips 56', 0.11 xGO'Riley 29', 0.10 xGFuruhashi 78', 0.08 xGJohnston 6', 0.07 xGYang 71', 0.06 xGYang 76', 0.05 xGPalma 14', 0.04 xGForrest 53', 0.04 xGPalma 2', 0.03 xGO'Riley 21', 0.03 xGO'Riley 44', 0.03 xGPalma 45', 0.03 xGTurnbull 15', 0.02 xGOh 83', 0.47 xG, goalTurnbull 18', 0.05 xG, goal4%0.13 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.13 xG, 0 goals78%2.42 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 2.42 xG, 1 goal5%0.17 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals12%0.38 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.38 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Kiltie 85', 0.18 xGKiltie 23', 0.04 xGBoyd-Munce 59', 0.04 xGBoyd-Munce 62', 0.03 xGO'Hara 85', 0.03 xGMcMenamin 7', 0.30 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals89%0.56 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.56 xG, 1 goal6%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals5%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticSt. Mirren

1.69 15 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.58 5 shots, 1 goal
0.64 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.77 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
74 min (78%) · Celtic 3.13, St. Mirren 0.41 xG
Celtic ahead
10 min (11%) · Celtic 0.64, St. Mirren 0.21 xG
St. Mirren ahead
11 min (12%) · Celtic 0.11, St. Mirren 0.00 xG

Line-ups

126533342144987HartJohnstonPhillipsScalesTaylorO'RileyMcGregorTurnbullForrestFuruhashiPalmaGoalYellow card68'74'56'56'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers122135231563102011HemmingFraserGogicTaylorStrainBoyd-MunceO'HaraTanserMcMenaminOlusanyaKiltieYellow cardGoal81'88'65'65'88'St. Mirren 3-4-3Stephen Robinson

Celtic substitutes

  • 56' Maeda for Palma
  • 56' Yang for Forrest · yellow card 64'
  • 68' Holm for O'Riley · 1 assist
  • 74' Oh for Turnbull · goal 83'

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 65' Greive for McMenamin
  • 65' Mandron for Olusanya · yellow card 82'
  • 81' Dunne for Strain
  • 88' Flynn for Boyd-Munce
  • 88' Nachmani for Kiltie

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0200
JohnstonRB900.070.0610.1084
PhillipsCB900.240.0400.19146
ScalesCB900.000.0300.1699
TaylorLB900.000.2640.26141
O'RileyCM6810.170.061−0.0114
McGregorCM900.000.2630.2233
TurnbullCM7410.990.4710.2630
ForrestRW560.290.1410.0852
Furuhashi ST900.950.0200.1132
PalmaLW560.480.1930.33103
MaedaFW340.000.0200.0530
Yang FW340.110.2220.2653
HolmMF2210.000.1820.0722
OhFW1610.590.000−0.0100

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0111
FraserCB900.000.0100.02211
GogicCB900.000.0000.0114
Taylor CB900.000.0000.0246
StrainRWB810.000.0000.0007
Boyd-MunceCM880.080.0200.0246
O'HaraCM900.030.0310.0323
TanserLWB900.000.0910.1559
McMenaminRW6510.300.0000.0012
OlusanyaST650.000.0000.0220
KiltieLW8810.210.1010.0814
GreiveFW250.000.000−0.0101
Mandron FW250.000.000−0.0610
DunneDF90.000.0100.0330
FlynnMF20.000.0000.0000
NachmaniFW20.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Phillips and Turnbull: 8 passesO'Riley and Turnbull: 8 passesO'Riley and Palma: 8 passesMcGregor and Forrest: 9 passesHart and Scales: 11 passesO'Riley and Forrest: 11 passesHart and Phillips: 12 passesScales and McGregor: 13 passesMcGregor and Turnbull: 13 passesMcGregor and Palma: 14 passesO'Riley and McGregor: 15 passesJohnston and McGregor: 17 passesTaylor and Turnbull: 18 passesScales and Taylor: 19 passesJohnston and Forrest: 23 passesScales and Phillips: 23 passesPhillips and McGregor: 26 passesTurnbull and Palma: 26 passesJohnston and Phillips: 29 passesTaylor and Palma: 31 passesTaylor and McGregor: 32 passesHart: 15 completed passesJohnston: 51 completed passesScales: 47 completed passesPhillips: 61 completed passesTaylor: 56 completed passesO'Riley: 31 completed passesMcGregor: 71 completed passesTurnbull: 48 completed passesForrest: 29 completed passesFuruhashi: 0 completed passesPalma: 38 completed passes125633342144987HartJohnstonScalesPhillipsTaylorO'RileyMcGregorTurnbullForrestFuruhashiPalmaStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 8+ passes

St. Mirren

Hemming and Tanser: 3 passesGogic and Taylor: 3 passesGogic and Boyd-Munce: 3 passesFraser and McMenamin: 3 passesBoyd-Munce and Olusanya: 3 passesBoyd-Munce and Kiltie: 3 passesMcMenamin and Kiltie: 3 passesHemming and Taylor: 4 passesFraser and O'Hara: 4 passesStrain and O'Hara: 4 passesTaylor and Kiltie: 5 passesGogic and Fraser: 6 passesFraser and Strain: 6 passesTanser and Boyd-Munce: 6 passesTaylor and Boyd-Munce: 7 passesTanser and Kiltie: 8 passesTaylor and Tanser: 11 passesHemming: 6 completed passesGogic: 4 completed passesTaylor: 19 completed passesFraser: 15 completed passesStrain: 7 completed passesTanser: 16 completed passesO'Hara: 10 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 18 completed passesMcMenamin: 3 completed passesOlusanya: 2 completed passesKiltie: 10 completed passes113522233615102011HemmingGogicTaylorFraserStrainTanserO'HaraBoyd-MunceMcMenaminOlusanyaKiltieStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesPhillips24
McGregorTaylor24
PhillipsJohnston24
TaylorPalma23
JohnstonPhillips22

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
TanserTaylor7
Boyd-MunceTanser6
TaylorGogic6
TaylorBoyd-Munce5
TaylorTanser5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

3−0.65+1.915+5.12−2.69+1.34−0.92−1.65−2.05−2.66+0.52−1.92−1.96−0.37−1.83−2.03−0.30−2.53+0.14−2.43−1.02−0.72−0.11−1.410+5.91+0.21+0.90−0.53+2.64+2.92−5.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

St. Mirren

14+9.111+2.221+4.86−2.28+3.119+10.813+4.25−0.97−2.680.03−3.44−2.30−3.46−1.84−3.02−1.82−0.92−0.12−1.32−1.74+2.42+0.62+1.61−0.43+0.80−0.90−0.20−0.80−0.20−1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.010.020.030.030.030.080.060.060.050.020.060.060.110.080.030.200.160.110.240.08−0.02−0.030.60LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.010.020.02−0.010.010.030.01−0.010.030.01−0.020.01−0.060.080.090.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackCeltic2.32 → 2.35St. Mirren1.10 → 1.09Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.75 → 0.74St. Mirren1.38 → 1.41

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title74%76%+2
St. Mirren
Top six74%73%−1
11th2%2%0
Bottom1%1%0
Rangers
Title26%24%−2

From the forecast before the match (1 November 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticSt. Mirren
Expected goals2.950.57
Win85%4%
Expected Points2.650.24
Clean sheet56%5%

Celtic 85%Draw 11%St. Mirren 4%

Most likely score 2–0, 13%. Both sides score 42%.

St. Mirren goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+3%1%8%5%1%7%2%7%2%5%2%5%3%4%3%13%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 November 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawSt. Mirren win
Celtic
Title74%76%65%63%
St. Mirren
Top six74%73%81%89%
11th2%2%1%<1%
Bottom1%1%1%–
Rangers
Title26%24%35%37%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. D0–028 OctHibernian (A)xG 1.49–0.57
  2. W4–122 OctHearts (A)xG 4.01–0.73
  3. W3–17 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 2.75–1.54
  4. W2–130 SepMotherwell (A)xG 1.68–0.82
  5. W3–023 SepLivingston (A)xG 2.61–0.94
  6. W3–016 SepDundee FC (H)xG 3.17–0.81

St. Mirren

  1. W4–028 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.52–0.74
  2. L0–38 OctRangers (H)xG 0.03–2.05
  3. D1–130 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.79–0.73
  4. W1–023 SepHearts (H)xG 1.59–1.19
  5. W1–016 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.55–1.18
  6. D1–12 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.67–1.45

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticSt. Mirren
Position1st3rd
Played109
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠2–⁠05–⁠3–⁠1
Points26 (2.60 per game)18 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game2.281.22
Goals23–⁠615–⁠10
xG per game2.58–⁠1.041.11–⁠1.33
Home: points, xG per game2.50, 3.02–⁠0.942.00, 1.28–⁠1.43
Away: points, xG per game2.67, 2.28–⁠1.102.00, 0.89–⁠1.19
ManagerBrendan Rodgers (10)Stephen Robinson (4)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackCeltic2.32, 1stSt. Mirren1.10, 8thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.75, 2ndSt. Mirren1.38, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctCeltic attack: 2.32St. Mirren attack: 1.102.321.10St. MirrenCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctCeltic defence: 0.75St. Mirren defence: 1.381.380.75

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+111%+5%−28%−7%
Counter-attacks+190%−80%+77%−50%
Set pieces+8%−41%−34%−12%
Penalties+144%−100%+36%+104%
Headers−15%−38%+12%−23%
Left side+77%+5%−28%average
Centre+96%−18%−30%−7%
Right side+85%−24%−3%−34%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+77%−34%Centre+96%−7%Right side+85%averageOpen play+111%−7%Counter-attacks+190%−50%Set pieces+8%−12%Headers−15%−23%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdCeltic concededLeft side−28%−24%Centre−30%−18%Right side−3%+5%Open play−28%+5%Counter-attacks+77%−80%Set pieces−34%−41%Headers+12%−38%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticSt. Mirren

2.58xG1.11
1.04xG against1.33
67%Possession43%
18.5Shots9.6
9.4Shots against11.9
7.5Shots on target3.6
4.1Big chances2.4
39.2Touches in the opposition box15.4
661Passes304
84%Pass accuracy62%
7.5Corners4.1
74%Field tilt39%
65.2Final-third entries29.2
20.8Box entries9.2
11.3Passes per defensive action17.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level442.200.69
Ahead462.941.36
Behind0––

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.040.91
Ahead371.121.82
Behind101.341.24

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.280.143–0
16–300.490.135–1
31–450.270.143–0
46–600.660.123–1
61–750.260.253–2
76–900.620.276–2

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.043–0
16–300.130.191–2
31–450.150.243–1
46–600.220.133–0
61–750.140.291–3
76–900.180.434–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 9Bain 1A. Johnston 8Ralston 2Carter-Vickers 5Lagerbielke 4Phillips 1Scales 8Nawrocki 2Taylor 10O'Riley 10McGregor 10Turnbull 5Hatate 4Bernardo 1Maeda 4Abada 3Yang 2Furuhashi 10Maeda 6Palma 3Yang 14-3-3 in every start

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 9Fraser 9Gogic 9Taylor 8Dunne 1Strain 8Flynn 1Baccus 8McMenamin 1O'Hara 5Boyd-Munce 4Tanser 8O'Hara 1McMenamin 8Tanser 1Olusanya 5Mandron 4Kiltie 93-4-3 in 5 of 9 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (5), 3-4-2-1 (3), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
20 May 2023Celtic2–2St. MirrenxG 1.73–1.24
5 March 2023St. Mirren1–5CelticxG 0.79–2.48
18 January 2023Celtic4–0St. MirrenxG 2.25–0.53
18 September 2022St. Mirren2–0CelticxG 0.82–1.18
2 March 2022Celtic2–0St. MirrenxG 1.60–0.36
22 December 2021St. Mirren0–0CelticxG 0.29–1.68

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 6, St. Mirren won 2, and 2 were drawn. Goals 26–8 and xG 2.22–0.70 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
O'Riley10872620.440.24
Furuhashi10772520.450.17
Maeda10805220.450.06
Taylor10869110.100.22

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Strain8651110.170.15
Kiltie9719220.240.04
Tanser9810110.030.25
O'Hara6540110.140.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.