Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 1–0 Rangers

Saturday 5 August 2023, 17:15 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 1 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 9,256

Kilmarnock Lyons 65'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockRangers
Goals10
xG0.521.36
Expected Points0.692.01

Kilmarnock 13%Draw 30%Rangers 57%

Most likely score 0–1, 20%. Final score 1–0, 8%.

Rangers goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+14%14%6%2%8%13%8%4%1%2%3%2%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTVassell on for Watkins, 63'McKenzie on for Magennis, 77'Cameron on for Kennedy and Murray on for Armstrong, 89'Danilo on for Dessers and Cantwell on for Dowell, 62'Jack on for Lundstram, 72'Roofe on for Lammers, 84'Lyons 65'Rangers 1.36Kilmarnock 0.5200.511.50153045607590HTVassell on for Watkins, 63'McKenzie on for Magennis, 77'Cameron on for Kennedy and Murray on for Armstrong, 89'Danilo on for Dessers and Cantwell on for Dowell, 62'Jack on for Lundstram, 72'Roofe on for Lammers, 84'Lyons 65'1.360.52KilmarnockRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockRangers

0.52xG1.36
1.15xG on target0.51
10Shots18
3Shots on target4
1Big chances0
32%Possession68%
291Passes601
60%Pass accuracy82%
32%Field tilt68%
33Final-third entries77
9Box entries17
24.1Passes per defensive action12.8
2Corners8
15Tackles15
14Interceptions7
28Clearances11
4Saves2
7Fouls10
0Offsides3

Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Mayo 9', 0.09 xGArmstrong 72', 0.07 xGKennedy 30', 0.06 xGKennedy 58', 0.05 xGArmstrong 1', 0.02 xGArmstrong 48', 0.02 xGKennedy 53', 0.02 xGArmstrong 19', 0.01 xGMagennis 69', 0.01 xGLyons 65', 0.17 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals65%0.33 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.33 xG, 1 goal20%0.10 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals14%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Dowell 62', 0.22 xGLammers 76', 0.21 xGSima 88', 0.15 xGDowell 61', 0.11 xGDessers 41', 0.10 xGLundstram 42', 0.08 xGSouttar 62', 0.08 xGSima 8', 0.07 xGDessers 40', 0.07 xGSouttar 51', 0.05 xGCantwell 87', 0.05 xGDanilo 80', 0.03 xGCantwell 81', 0.03 xGTavernier 82', 0.03 xGSima 43', 0.02 xGSouttar 49', 0.02 xGBarisic 76', 0.02 xGRaskin 85', 0.02 xG22%0.30 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals56%0.75 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.75 xG, 0 goals12%0.16 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals7%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockRangers

0.27 8 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.85 14 shots, 0 goals
0.26 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.51 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
65 min (72%) · Kilmarnock 0.44, Rangers 0.83 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
25 min (28%) · Kilmarnock 0.09, Rangers 0.53 xG

Line-ups

11156173128161023DennisArmstrongMayoDeasFindlayNdabaWatsonLyonsMagennisKennedyWatkinsGoal89'77'89'63'Kilmarnock 5-3-2Derek McInnes1265314432014919ButlandTavernierGoldsonSouttarBarisicLundstramRaskinDowellLammersDessersSima72'62'84'62'Rangers 4-3-3Michael Beale

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 63' Vassell for Watkins
  • 77' McKenzie for Magennis
  • 89' Murray for Armstrong
  • 89' Cameron for Kennedy

Rangers substitutes

  • 62' Danilo for Dessers
  • 62' Cantwell for Dowell
  • 72' Jack for Lundstram
  • 84' Roofe for Lammers

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0100.0680
ArmstrongRWB890.120.0710.07111
MayoCB900.090.0110.04411
DeasCB900.000.0500.0659
FindlayCB900.000.0000.0225
NdabaLWB900.000.0410.11106
WatsonCM900.000.0510.0103
LyonsCM9010.170.0100.03514
MagennisCM770.010.060−0.0625
KennedyST890.130.0210.0364
WatkinsST630.000.0020.0120
VassellFW270.000.0300.0310
McKenzieMF130.000.0000.0001
MurrayFW10.000.0000.0011
CameronFW10.000.0000.0220

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ButlandGK900.000.0000.0321
TavernierRB900.030.2530.13124
GoldsonCB900.000.0200.1275
SouttarCB900.160.0410.28115
BarisicLB900.020.3950.1754
LundstramCM720.080.1210.1975
RaskinCM900.020.0940.18163
DowellCM620.330.0400.1535
LammersRW840.210.0800.0420
DessersST620.170.061−0.0200
SimaLW900.250.020−0.0262
DaniloFW280.030.0100.0100
CantwellMF280.080.0800.0631
JackMF180.000.0200.0230
RoofeFW60.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Watkins: 3 passesFindlay and Magennis: 3 passesMayo and Deas: 3 passesDeas and Kennedy: 3 passesNdaba and Lyons: 3 passesNdaba and Watkins: 3 passesKennedy and Watkins: 3 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 4 passesMayo and Lyons: 4 passesDeas and Lyons: 4 passesMagennis and Lyons: 4 passesArmstrong and Mayo: 6 passesArmstrong and Magennis: 6 passesMagennis and Watkins: 6 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 7 passesMagennis and Kennedy: 7 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 8 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 9 passesNdaba and Magennis: 11 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 14 passesDennis: 10 completed passesArmstrong: 18 completed passesFindlay: 8 completed passesMayo: 8 completed passesDeas: 15 completed passesNdaba: 23 completed passesMagennis: 21 completed passesWatson: 3 completed passesLyons: 13 completed passesKennedy: 14 completed passesWatkins: 12 completed passes11117563161281023DennisArmstrongFindlayMayoDeasNdabaMagennisWatsonLyonsKennedyWatkinsStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Rangers

Butland and Tavernier: 5 passesTavernier and Dessers: 5 passesBarisic and Raskin: 5 passesBarisic and Sima: 6 passesRaskin and Sima: 6 passesLundstram and Lammers: 6 passesButland and Goldson: 7 passesSouttar and Dowell: 7 passesRaskin and Dowell: 7 passesLundstram and Sima: 7 passesDowell and Lammers: 7 passesTavernier and Dowell: 8 passesButland and Souttar: 10 passesTavernier and Sima: 10 passesTavernier and Raskin: 11 passesTavernier and Lammers: 11 passesGoldson and Raskin: 13 passesRaskin and Lundstram: 14 passesSouttar and Lundstram: 15 passesTavernier and Goldson: 21 passesSouttar and Barisic: 21 passesGoldson and Lundstram: 24 passesSouttar and Raskin: 25 passesTavernier and Lundstram: 31 passesGoldson and Souttar: 37 passesButland: 20 completed passesTavernier: 55 completed passesGoldson: 55 completed passesSouttar: 62 completed passesBarisic: 22 completed passesRaskin: 46 completed passesLundstram: 54 completed passesDowell: 21 completed passesLammers: 14 completed passesDessers: 7 completed passesSima: 13 completed passes1265314342014919ButlandTavernierGoldsonSouttarBarisicRaskinLundstramDowellLammersDessersSimaStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
KennedyArmstrong10
MagennisNdaba10
ArmstrongKennedy8
NdabaKennedy7
NdabaMagennis7

Rangers

FromToPasses
SouttarRaskin26
GoldsonSouttar25
SouttarGoldson22
TavernierLundstram19
LundstramTavernier16

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

455349121444588664423111112016LessMore

Rangers

6375677655745123531211119118LessMore

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.060.010.010.010.010.020.020.040.020.010.040.020.040.020.040.02−0.020.01−0.01−0.050.010.08LessMore

Rangers

0.010.030.010.030.030.020.060.030.050.110.130.010.060.090.100.090.090.03−0.010.010.08−0.010.020.06−0.040.070.19LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackKilmarnock1.15 → 1.14Rangers2.25 → 2.21Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.39 → 1.37Rangers0.75 → 0.75

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six43%57%+14
11th8%5%−3
Bottom6%3%−3
Rangers
Title44%34%−10
Celtic
Title56%66%+10

From the forecast before the match (5 August 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockRangers
Expected goals0.792.13
Win12%68%
Expected Points0.572.23
Clean sheet12%45%

Kilmarnock 12%Draw 20%Rangers 68%

Most likely score 0–2, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Rangers goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+6%9%5%2%1%4%7%4%2%2%4%4%3%1%1%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 5 August 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawRangers win
Kilmarnock
Top six43%57%48%39%
11th8%5%6%9%
Bottom6%3%4%7%
Rangers
Title44%34%39%47%
Celtic
Title56%66%61%53%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–128 MayRoss County (H)xG 1.46–1.25
  2. W3–024 MayDundee United (A)xG 1.90–0.99
  3. L0–120 MaySt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.48–1.62
  4. W2–013 MayLivingston (H)xG 1.75–0.32
  5. L0–26 MayMotherwell (A)xG 0.43–1.67
  6. W2–022 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.32–0.51

Rangers

  1. W3–027 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 1.81–0.55
  2. D2–224 MayHearts (H)xG 2.85–1.17
  3. W3–121 MayHibernian (A)xG 1.91–1.19
  4. W3–013 MayCeltic (H)xG 1.57–1.34
  5. W1–07 MayAberdeen (H)xG 2.00–1.30
  6. L0–223 AprAberdeen (A)xG 1.90–0.94

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackKilmarnock1.15, 7thRangers2.25, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.39, 7thRangers0.75, 2nd

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−25%+2%+86%−49%
Counter-attacks−23%−3%−20%+15%
Set pieces+24%+16%+39%−25%
Penalties−48%−9%+30%−100%
Headers+6%−21%+60%−48%
Left side−1%−6%+64%−41%
Centre−17%+9%+69%−40%
Right side−17%+10%+76%−41%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRangers concededLeft side−1%−41%Centre−17%−40%Right side−17%−41%Open play−25%−49%Counter-attacks−23%+15%Set pieces+24%−25%Headers+6%−48%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+64%+10%Centre+69%+9%Right side+76%−6%Open play+86%+2%Counter-attacks−20%−3%Set pieces+39%+16%Headers+60%−21%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
4 March 2023Rangers3–1KilmarnockxG 3.55–0.79
18 January 2023Kilmarnock2–3RangersxG 0.79–1.49
6 August 2022Rangers2–0KilmarnockxG 1.77–0.37
13 February 2021Rangers1–0KilmarnockxG 1.47–0.08
1 November 2020Kilmarnock0–1RangersxG 0.50–2.80
22 August 2020Rangers2–0KilmarnockxG 2.93–0.10

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Rangers won 6, and 0 were drawn. Goals 3–12 and xG 0.44–2.34 per game.