Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 0–0 Motherwell

Wednesday 8 January 2025, 19:45 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 11 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 4,601

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockMotherwell
Goals00
xG1.720.39
Expected Points2.380.41

Kilmarnock 72%Draw 22%Motherwell 6%

Most likely score 1–0, 21%. Final score 0–0, 10%.

Motherwell goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+10%4%10%2%8%2%11%5%4%2%21%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTBurroughs on for Magennis, 65'Armstrong on for Murray, 77'Anderson on for Ndaba, 78'McGinn on for Gordon, 58'Sparrow on for Vale, 63'O'Donnell on for Kaleta, Ebiye on for Maswanhise, and Andrews on for Halliday, 76'Kilmarnock 1.72Motherwell 0.3900.511.520153045607590HTBurroughs on for Magennis, 65'Armstrong on for Murray, 77'Anderson on for Ndaba, 78'McGinn on for Gordon, 58'Sparrow on for Vale, 63'O'Donnell on for Kaleta, Ebiye on for Maswanhise, and Andrews on for Halliday, 76'1.720.39KilmarnockMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockMotherwell

1.72 +0.32xG0.39 −0.82
0.26 −0.89xG on target0.07 −1.20
18 +5Shots7 −3
3 −0.7Shots on target2 −1.5
3 +1.0Big chances0 −2.0
44 +23Touches in the opposition box16 −3
69% +25Possession31% −8
492 +181Passes225 −73
80% +14Pass accuracy56% −11
73% +30Field tilt27% −7
53 +21Final-third entries19 −7
21 +11.0Box entries8 0.0
25.5 +10Passes per defensive action37.2 +19
15 +9.5Corners2 −2.8
15 +1Tackles7 −10
6 −2.8Interceptions8 −0.2
25 −10Clearances45 +15
2 −1.0Saves3 −0.9
5 −6Fouls6 −5
1 −0.1Offsides1 −1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Watkins 74', 0.43 xGWatkins 3', 0.24 xGWales 21', 0.24 xGLyons 45+4', 0.14 xGBurroughs 90+2', 0.10 xGLyons 32', 0.08 xGWright 9', 0.07 xGMurray 21', 0.07 xGWright 45+3', 0.06 xGWatkins 47', 0.06 xGWales 90+5', 0.05 xGLyons 28', 0.04 xGMagennis 39', 0.04 xGAnderson 86', 0.04 xGLyons 9', 0.03 xGMurray 15', 0.02 xGMurray 68', 0.02 xGWright 53', 0.01 xG30%0.52 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 0.52 xG, 0 goals56%0.97 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.97 xG, 0 goals12%0.21 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Watt 57', 0.12 xGO'Donnell 88', 0.10 xGWatt 24', 0.08 xGWatt 84', 0.04 xGCasey 81', 0.02 xGMcGinn 90+6', 0.02 xGCasey 81', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals79%0.31 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals10%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals10%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockMotherwell

1.20 9 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.38 6 shots, 0 goals
0.52 9 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.02 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
100 min (100%) · Kilmarnock 1.72, Motherwell 0.39 xG

Line-ups

20546816313152324McCrorieMayoWrightDeasLyonsMagennisPolworthNdabaMurrayWatkinsWalesYellow card65'78'77'Kilmarnock 3-4-3Derek McInnes1354152161123557752OxboroughBalmerGordonCaseyKaletaZdravkovskiHallidayWilsonMaswanhiseValeWattYellow cardYellow card58'76'76'76'63'Motherwell 3-4-3Stuart Kettlewell

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 65' Burroughs for Magennis
  • 77' Armstrong for Murray
  • 78' Anderson for Ndaba

Motherwell substitutes

  • 58' McGinn for Gordon
  • 63' Sparrow for Vale
  • 76' O'Donnell for Kaleta
  • 76' Andrews for Halliday
  • 76' Ebiye for Maswanhise

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0100
MayoCB900.000.0200.1298
WrightCB900.140.1710.1356
DeasCB900.000.0500.141011
LyonsRWB900.280.6020.5575
MagennisCM650.040.0310.0142
PolworthCM900.000.0810.0893
NdabaLWB780.000.0200.0675
MurrayRW770.100.8380.3991
Watkins ST900.720.0510.1122
WalesLW900.300.0200.0550
BurroughsDF250.100.0100.0325
ArmstrongMF130.000.0910.2350
AndersonFW120.040.0100.0100

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
OxboroughGK900.000.0000.0121
BalmerCB900.000.011−0.0128
GordonCB580.000.0100.0426
CaseyCB900.040.0100.03216
KaletaRWB760.000.0710.1164
ZdravkovskiCM900.000.0100.0218
Halliday CM760.000.0100.0123
Wilson LWB900.000.0000.0005
MaswanhiseRW760.000.0300.0811
ValeST630.000.0710.0824
WattLW900.240.020−0.0232
McGinnDF320.020.0100.0214
SparrowMF270.000.0000.0001
O'DonnellDF140.100.0000.0110
AndrewsMF140.000.0110.0602
EbiyeFW140.000.0300.0210

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Deas and Polworth: 5 passesNdaba and Magennis: 5 passesPolworth and Magennis: 5 passesPolworth and Watkins: 5 passesDeas and Wales: 6 passesMayo and Magennis: 6 passesMagennis and Wales: 6 passesWales and Watkins: 6 passesMcCrorie and Deas: 7 passesMurray and Watkins: 7 passesNdaba and Wales: 8 passesMayo and Ndaba: 9 passesLyons and Murray: 9 passesLyons and Magennis: 10 passesMayo and Polworth: 12 passesLyons and Polworth: 12 passesMagennis and Murray: 15 passesWright and Deas: 16 passesDeas and Ndaba: 16 passesNdaba and Polworth: 19 passesWright and Mayo: 24 passesMayo and Lyons: 33 passesMcCrorie: 7 completed passesWright: 32 completed passesDeas: 34 completed passesMayo: 46 completed passesLyons: 37 completed passesNdaba: 37 completed passesPolworth: 34 completed passesMagennis: 28 completed passesWales: 12 completed passesMurray: 21 completed passesWatkins: 11 completed passes20465833116241523McCrorieWrightDeasMayoLyonsNdabaPolworthMagennisWalesMurrayWatkinsStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Motherwell

Balmer and Maswanhise: 3 passesKaleta and Zdravkovski: 3 passesWilson and Vale: 3 passesVale and Maswanhise: 3 passesVale and Watt: 3 passesMaswanhise and Watt: 3 passesBalmer and Zdravkovski: 4 passesZdravkovski and Halliday: 4 passesZdravkovski and Maswanhise: 4 passesBalmer and Kaleta: 5 passesBalmer and Halliday: 5 passesKaleta and Maswanhise: 5 passesKaleta and Watt: 5 passesBalmer and Watt: 6 passesOxborough: 5 completed passesCasey: 10 completed passesGordon: 2 completed passesBalmer: 19 completed passesKaleta: 10 completed passesWilson: 4 completed passesZdravkovski: 13 completed passesHalliday: 10 completed passesVale: 7 completed passesMaswanhise: 6 completed passesWatt: 7 completed passes1315452123611775552OxboroughCaseyGordonBalmerKaletaWilsonZdravkovskiHallidayValeMaswanhiseWattStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
LyonsMayo19
WrightMayo19
MayoLyons16
NdabaPolworth16
DeasWales10

Motherwell

FromToPasses
BalmerWatt5
ZdravkovskiMaswanhise4
BalmerMaswanhise4
KaletaBalmer4
CaseyWatt4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

7+2.66−2.06−1.62−3.75−0.72−5.32−4.98+1.914+7.85−0.27+3.54+0.74−0.85+0.12−1.44+0.61−1.33−0.31−3.32+0.10−1.70−0.81−0.12−0.61+0.40−0.60−0.91+0.60−0.79−8.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Motherwell

6+1.410+3.331+13.09+1.110+3.67+0.90−6.61−5.64−2.05−2.46+0.91−3.12−1.24−0.76−0.12−2.15+1.92+0.11−2.23−1.22−0.52+0.310.00−1.62+0.70−1.00−0.60−0.70−0.11+0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.050.030.010.010.030.030.040.040.020.070.080.090.010.040.020.160.07−0.02−0.020.060.240.220.180.030.42LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.020.040.010.010.010.03−0.010.010.020.020.040.07−0.010.010.020.050.030.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackKilmarnock1.22 → 1.23Motherwell1.19 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.36 → 1.32Motherwell1.43 → 1.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six21%15%−6
11th9%11%+2
Bottom2%2%0
Motherwell
Top six69%71%+2
11th2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (8 January 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockMotherwell
Expected goals1.561.08
Win48%26%
Expected Points1.691.04
Clean sheet34%21%

Kilmarnock 48%Draw 27%Motherwell 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Motherwell goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%2%7%2%9%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%11%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 8 January 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawMotherwell win
Kilmarnock
Top six21%31%15%8%
11th9%6%11%14%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
Motherwell
Top six69%59%71%85%
11th2%3%2%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–15 JanRoss County (H)xG 0.56–1.15
  2. W2–02 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.98–0.26
  3. L0–129 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.25–2.32
  4. W4–026 DecAberdeen (H)xG 4.02–0.50
  5. D1–120 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.03–0.76
  6. W1–015 DecHearts (H)xG 1.57–1.15

Motherwell

  1. W2–05 JanAberdeen (H)xG 1.36–0.89
  2. L0–12 JanHearts (A)xG 1.25–1.97
  3. D2–229 DecRangers (H)xG 0.52–2.23
  4. L0–426 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.23–3.55
  5. D1–120 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 0.76–1.03
  6. W4–314 DecDundee United (H)xG 2.09–2.02

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockMotherwell
Position10th5th
Played2221
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠6–⁠109–⁠3–⁠9
Points24 (1.09 per game)30 (1.43 per game)
Expected Points per game1.301.21
Goals25–⁠3727–⁠34
xG per game1.40–⁠1.521.21–⁠1.57
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 1.98–⁠1.201.64, 1.27–⁠1.46
Away: points, xG per game0.75, 0.91–⁠1.791.20, 1.14–⁠1.69
ManagerDerek McInnes (98)Stuart Kettlewell (73)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackKilmarnock1.22, 6thMotherwell1.19, 8thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.36, 6thMotherwell1.43, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock attack: 1.22Motherwell attack: 1.191.221.19MotherwellKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock defence: 1.36Motherwell defence: 1.431.431.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−18%+7%−21%+13%
Counter-attacks−29%−20%−43%+13%
Set pieces+24%+20%+21%−1%
Penalties+39%−17%−71%+16%
Headers−11%−3%+44%+11%
Left side+10%−7%−30%+25%
Centre−9%+19%+1%−1%
Right side−17%+2%−16%+14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side+10%+14%Centre−9%−1%Right side−17%+25%Open play−18%+13%Counter-attacks−29%+13%Set pieces+24%−1%Headers−11%+11%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−30%+2%Centre+1%+19%Right side−16%−7%Open play−21%+7%Counter-attacks−43%−20%Set pieces+21%+20%Headers+44%−3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockMotherwell

1.40xG1.21
1.52xG against1.57
44%Possession39%
12.7Shots10.2
13.6Shots against14.9
3.7Shots on target3.5
2.0Big chances2.0
20.8Touches in the opposition box19.3
311Passes298
67%Pass accuracy67%
5.5Corners4.8
43%Field tilt34%
31.8Final-third entries25.7
10.0Box entries8.0
15.3Passes per defensive action18.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.401.56
Ahead161.681.28
Behind321.251.60

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.371.45
Ahead240.921.51
Behind251.211.82

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.252–2
16–300.190.223–6
31–450.160.252–7
46–600.180.254–6
61–750.280.245–6
76–900.360.319–10

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.262–5
16–300.310.208–4
31–450.130.337–4
46–600.150.392–9
61–750.170.162–7
76–900.330.236–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 17O'Hara 5Lyons 6Mayo 5Armstrong 4Mayo 12Wright 9Deas 10Findlay 9Ndaba 4Ndaba 10Lyons 4Deas 3Armstrong 12Wright 3Murray 2Watson 12Murray 2Ndaba 1Polworth 8Donnelly 7Lyons 7Kennedy 10Murray 5Ndaba 2Vassell 19Cameron 2Wales 2Watkins 12Anderson 5Watson 14-4-2 in 11 of 22 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (11), 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTOxborough 21Casey 19McGinn 6O'Donnell 2Gordon 17Balmer 10Blaney 7Seddon 2Kaleta 10O'Donnell 9Wilson 1Halliday 16Miller 6Gordon 1Zdravkovski 8Wilson 5Paton 3Wilson 12Seddon 3Sparrow 2Miller 11Zdravkovski 3Sparrow 3Maswanhise 9Stamatelopoulos 3Halliday 2Stamatelopoulos 10Robinson 5Watt 33-4-2-1 in 7 of 21 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (7), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-1-2 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 3-5-1-1 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
20 December 2024Motherwell1–1KilmarnockxG 0.76–1.03
3 February 2024Motherwell1–1KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.24
4 November 2023Kilmarnock1–0MotherwellxG 1.95–0.61
26 August 2023Motherwell2–1KilmarnockxG 2.15–1.05
6 May 2023Motherwell2–0KilmarnockxG 1.67–0.43
25 February 2023Kilmarnock1–1MotherwellxG 0.75–1.24

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 4, Motherwell won 4, and 4 were drawn. Goals 15–14 and xG 1.07–1.11 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson8789800.820.07
Kennedy11948410.190.32
Watkins131,133300.360.04
Vassell191,425210.320.09

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ebiye3488200.450.05
Miller191,671260.150.24
Stamatelopoulos13897510.340.04
Watt6829100.260.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.