Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 0–1 Ross County

Sunday 5 January 2025, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 22 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 5,426

Ross County Harmon 86'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Kilmarnock	Ross County
Goals	0	1
xG	0.56	1.15
Expected Points	0.72	1.95

Kilmarnock 13%Draw 33%Ross County 54%

Most likely score 0–1, 30%. Final score 0–1, 30%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockRoss County

0.56 −0.88xG1.15 +0.17

0.11 −1.09xG on target1.29 +0.37

11 −2Shots9 −2

3 −0.7Shots on target3 −0.2

0 −2.1Big chances2 +0.8

29 +9Touches in the opposition box19 +3

58% +15Possession42% +2

403 +96Passes290 −6

73% +6Pass accuracy65% −1

51% +9Field tilt49% +12

46 +15Final-third entries35 +6

15 +5.3Box entries9 +1.6

9.3 −6Passes per defensive action15.3 −2

7 +1.6Corners6 +1.3

13 −1Tackles17 0

2 −7.1Interceptions10 −0.5

33 −2Clearances51 +15

2 −1.0Saves3 +0.2

12 +2Fouls11 0

0 −1.2Offsides0 −1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Kilmarnock

Ross County

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockRoss County

0.36 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.98 5 shots, 1 goal

0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.04 1 shot, 0 goals

0.13 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.12 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–00–1

Level: 87 min (92%) · Kilmarnock 0.42, Ross County 1.15 xG
Ross County ahead: 8 min (8%) · Kilmarnock 0.14, Ross County 0.00 xG

Line-ups

Kilmarnock substitutes

5' Watkins for Cameron · off 63'
63' Magennis for Donnelly
63' Wales for Watkins
84' Mackay-Steven for Armstrong

Ross County substitutes

59' Hale for Grieves
75' Loturi for Nisbet · yellow card 90+2'
88' Telfer for Chilvers

Players

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
McCrorie	GK	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.01	2	0
Lyons	RB	90	0.04	0.03	0	−0.10	5	2
Wright	CB	90	0.00	0.04	0	0.08	6	11
Mayo	CB	90	0.00	0.13	1	0.19	9	11
Ndaba	LB	90	0.00	0.10	0	0.04	8	9
Armstrong	RM	84	0.01	0.25	2	0.30	9	3
Watson	CM	90	0.12	0.07	2	0.09	2	3
Donnelly	CM	63	0.00	0.01	1	0.03	4	5
Murray	LM	90	0.10	0.20	2	0.26	11	3
Cameron	ST	5	0.00	0.00	0	–	–	0
Anderson	ST	90	0.14	0.02	0	−0.03	0	0
Watkins	FW	58	0.00	0.01	0	−0.02	1	4
Magennis	MF	27	0.08	0.05	0	0.06	0	0
Wales	FW	27	0.00	0.01	0	0.03	1	0
Mackay-Steven	DF	6	0.06	0.06	0	0.04	0	0

Ross County

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Amissah	GK	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.04	3	2
Wright	CB	90			0.00	0.02	1	0.03	0	15
Lopata	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.02	1	16
Randall	CB	90			0.13	0.02	0	0.07	6	14
Brown	RWB	90			0.04	0.03	0	0.06	7	2
Grieves	CM	59			0.03	0.01	0	−0.02	1	1
Kenneh	CM	90			0.02	0.01	0	0.04	2	8
Nisbet	CM	75			0.16	0.02	1	0.06	1	3
Harmon	LWB	90	1		0.74	0.06	0	0.05	4	9
Chilvers	AM	88		1	0.00	0.28	3	0.17	4	5
White	ST	90			0.04	0.03	0	0.01	3	5
Hale	FW	31			0.00	0.02	1	0.02	1	0
Loturi	MF	15			0.00	0.01	0	0.02	3	3
Telfer	MF	2			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	1

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Lyons	Wright	13
Lyons	Armstrong	12
Wright	Lyons	11
Murray	Ndaba	10
Lyons	Mayo	9

Ross County

From	To	Passes
Brown	Chilvers	10
Chilvers	Harmon	8
Wright	Brown	7
Harmon	Chilvers	7
Amissah	White	6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 21 matches

Ross County

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

Ross County

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Kilmarnock
Top six	42%	26%	−16
11th	3%	6%	+3
Bottom	1%	2%	+1
Ross County
Top six	5%	12%	+7
11th	24%	16%	−8
Bottom	11%	5%	−6
Hibernian
Top six	62%	64%	+2
11th	1%	2%	+1
Dundee FC
Top six	5%	6%	+1
11th	27%	28%	+1
Bottom	14%	17%	+3

From the forecast before the match (5 January 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Kilmarnock	Ross County
Expected goals	1.71	0.93
Win	55%	20%
Expected Points	1.91	0.84
Clean sheet	39%	18%

Kilmarnock 55%Draw 25%Ross County 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

From the forecast as it stood on 5 January 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Kilmarnock win	Draw	Ross County win
Kilmarnock
Top six	42%	51%	34%	26%
11th	3%	1%	4%	6%
Bottom	1%	<1%	1%	2%
Ross County
Top six	5%	3%	5%	12%
11th	24%	28%	22%	16%
Bottom	11%	13%	10%	5%
Hibernian
Top six	62%	59%	65%	64%
11th	1%	1%	1%	2%
Dundee FC
Top six	5%	5%	6%	6%
11th	27%	26%	27%	28%
Bottom	14%	13%	15%	17%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

Ross County

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Kilmarnock	Ross County
Position	8th	10th
Played	21	21
Won, drawn, lost	6–⁠6–⁠9	5–⁠7–⁠9
Points	24 (1.14 per game)	22 (1.05 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.33	1.14
Goals	25–⁠36	21–⁠38
xG per game	1.44–⁠1.54	0.98–⁠1.57
Home: points, xG per game	1.67, 2.14–⁠1.21	1.18, 1.21–⁠0.91
Away: points, xG per game	0.75, 0.91–⁠1.79	0.90, 0.74–⁠2.30
Manager	Derek McInnes (97)	Don Cowie (36)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Kilmarnock		Ross County
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−17%	+6%	−55%	+27%
Counter-attacks	−27%	−16%	−42%	+16%
Set pieces	+29%	+25%	−4%	−21%
Penalties	+41%	−16%	+41%	−16%
Headers	−7%	+2%	−34%	+10%
Left side	+11%	−4%	−15%	+5%
Centre	−6%	+20%	−46%	+13%
Right side	−15%	+2%	−44%	+18%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRoss County concededLeft side+11%+18%Centre−6%+13%Right side−15%+5%Open play−17%+27%Counter-attacks−27%+16%Set pieces+29%−21%Headers−7%+10%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−15%+2%Centre−46%+20%Right side−44%−4%Open play−55%+6%Counter-attacks−42%−16%Set pieces−4%+25%Headers−34%+2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockRoss County

1.44xG0.98

1.54xG against1.57

43%Possession40%

12.8Shots11.0

13.8Shots against14.2

3.7Shots on target3.2

2.1Big chances1.2

20.4Touches in the opposition box16.2

307Passes296

67%Pass accuracy66%

5.4Corners4.7

42%Field tilt37%

31.2Final-third entries29.3

9.7Box entries7.4

15.6Passes per defensive action17.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	41	1.49	1.59
Ahead	16	1.68	1.28
Behind	33	1.24	1.61

Ross County

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	44	1.03	1.36
Ahead	20	0.97	1.11
Behind	27	0.92	2.26

xG by period

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.23	0.26	2–2
16–30	0.20	0.23	3–6
31–45	0.17	0.26	2–7
46–60	0.19	0.27	4–6
61–75	0.28	0.26	5–6
76–90	0.38	0.28	9–9

Ross County

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.14	0.18	2–3
16–30	0.11	0.20	3–4
31–45	0.24	0.28	3–10
46–60	0.11	0.27	4–5
61–75	0.15	0.27	2–4
76–90	0.24	0.38	7–12

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

Formations: 4-4-2 (10), 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Ross County

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-5-2 (6), 3-5-1-1 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
26 October 2024	Ross County	2–1	Kilmarnock	xG 0.82–0.72
6 April 2024	Kilmarnock	1–0	Ross County	xG 0.98–0.47
25 November 2023	Ross County	0–0	Kilmarnock	xG 0.88–0.65
2 September 2023	Kilmarnock	0–1	Ross County	xG 1.42–0.72
28 May 2023	Kilmarnock	3–1	Ross County	xG 1.46–1.25
28 January 2023	Ross County	3–0	Kilmarnock	xG 1.74–1.38

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 4, Ross County won 5, and 3 were drawn. Goals 15–16 and xG 1.16–1.12 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Anderson	7	699	8	0	0.90	0.07
Kennedy	11	948	4	1	0.19	0.32
Watkins	13	1,075	3	0	0.38	0.04
Vassell	19	1,425	2	1	0.32	0.09

Ross County

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Hale	18	1,477	5	0	0.35	0.04
White	13	1,308	4	0	0.28	0.06
Chilvers	15	1,198	2	3	0.12	0.16
Harmon	12	1,000	0	1	0.02	0.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.