Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Rangers 4–1 Kilmarnock

Sunday 5 May 2024, 13:00 · Ibrox Stadium · Round 35 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 49,553

Rangers Silva 45+8', Davies 62', Lawrence 71', Souttar 90+3'

Kilmarnock Tavernier 12' (og) · Wright sent off 22'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

RangersKilmarnock
Goals41
xG4.900.39
Non-penalty xG4.110.39
Expected Points2.980.01

Rangers 99%Draw 1%Kilmarnock <1%

Most likely score 6+–0, 23%. Final score 4–1, 6%.

Kilmarnock goalsRangers goals0123456+0123456+4%2%9%4%14%6%15%7%10%1%23%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

02460153045607590HTWright (Kilmarnock), red card 22'Davies on for Balogun, 46'McCausland on for Sterling and Lawrence on for Cantwell, 68'Yilmaz on for Barisic and Raskin on for Lundstram, 79'Deas on for Armstrong, 25'van Veen on for Watkins, Watson on for Polworth, and Lyons on for Vassell, 66'McKenzie on for Lyons, 79'Silva 45+8'Davies 62'Lawrence 71'Souttar 90+3'Tavernier 12' (og)Rangers 4.90Kilmarnock 0.3902460153045607590HTWright (Kilmarnock), red card 22'Davies on for Balogun, 46'McCausland on for Sterling and Lawrence on for Cantwell, 68'Yilmaz on for Barisic and Raskin on for Lundstram, 79'Deas on for Armstrong, 25'van Veen on for Watkins, Watson on for Polworth, and Lyons on for Vassell, 66'McKenzie on for Lyons, 79'Silva 45+8'Davies 62'Lawrence 71'Souttar 90+3'Tavernier 12' (og)4.900.39RangersKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

RangersKilmarnock

4.90 +2.56xG0.39 −0.91
4.11Non-penalty xG0.39
5.71 +3.44xG on target0.25 −1.23
41 +20Shots5 −8
15 +7.7Shots on target2 −2.1
8 +4.5Big chances0 −2.1
53 +18Touches in the opposition box6 −17
74% +11Possession26% −21
575 +38Passes214 −121
86% +4Pass accuracy49% −16
84% +13Field tilt16% −34
74 +15Final-third entries10 −23
25 +6Box entries4 −8
11.6 +1Passes per defensive action21.6 +7
16 +8.4Corners1 −5.2
9 −6Tackles13 −1
4 −2.9Interceptions9 +2.1
14 −1Clearances37 +15
2 0.0Saves11 +8.0
11 0Fouls9 −3
4 +2.1Offsides0 −1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Rangers

Sterling 19', 0.71 xGTavernier 45+6', 0.30 xGDavies 62', 0.27 xGSilva 19', 0.26 xGSilva 76', 0.16 xGDessers 64', 0.12 xGSilva 70', 0.11 xGDiomande 74', 0.09 xGDiomande 70', 0.08 xGLundstram 70', 0.08 xGDiomande 29', 0.07 xGSouttar 38', 0.07 xGCantwell 54', 0.07 xGLawrence 84', 0.07 xGLundstram 78', 0.06 xGTavernier 10', 0.05 xGSilva 51', 0.05 xGCantwell 61', 0.05 xGLundstram 41', 0.04 xGRaskin 83', 0.04 xGSilva 60', 0.03 xGLundstram 61', 0.03 xGSilva 89', 0.03 xGMcCausland 90+3', 0.03 xGDiomande 10', 0.02 xGCantwell 25', 0.02 xGSouttar 28', 0.02 xGTavernier 32', 0.02 xGSilva 35', 0.02 xGBarisic 45+5', 0.02 xGDavies 49', 0.02 xGCantwell 59', 0.02 xGTavernier 77', 0.02 xGMcCausland 78', 0.02 xGCantwell 45+7', 0.01 xGLawrence 90+3', 0.01 xGSouttar 90+3', 0.40 xG, goalSilva 45+8', 0.32 xG, goalDavies 62', 0.18 xG, goalLawrence 71', 0.10 xG, goal40%1.63 xGSix-yard box: 5 shots, 1.63 xG, 2 goals27%1.12 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.12 xG, 1 goal14%0.59 xGWide in the box: 8 shots, 0.59 xG, 0 goals16%0.67 xGEdge of the box: 15 shots, 0.67 xG, 1 goal2%0.10 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Ndaba 87', 0.21 xGMayo 67', 0.09 xGDonnelly 82', 0.05 xGVassell 63', 0.03 xGVassell 1', 0.02 xG54%0.21 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.21 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals8%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals36%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals3%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

RangersKilmarnock

2.91 28 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.18 4 shots, 0 goals
1.20 12 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.21 1 shot, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
29 min (28%) · Rangers 0.53, Kilmarnock 0.01 xG
Rangers ahead
32 min (31%) · Rangers 1.69, Kilmarnock 0.37 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
41 min (40%) · Rangers 2.68, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG

Line-ups

1227531424211379ButlandTavernierBalogunSouttarBarisicDiomandeLundstramSterlingCantwellSilvaDessersOwn goalGoalGoal46'79'79'68'68'Rangers 4-2-3-1Philippe Clement15417311223110239DennisMayoWrightFindlayNdabaArmstrongDonnellyPolworthKennedyWatkinsVassellSent offYellow cardYellow cardYellow card25'66'66'66'Kilmarnock 4-4-1-1Derek McInnes

Rangers substitutes

  • 46' Davies for Balogun · goal 62'
  • 68' McCausland for Sterling · 1 assist
  • 68' Lawrence for Cantwell · goal 71'
  • 79' Yilmaz for Barisic
  • 79' Raskin for Lundstram

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 25' Deas for Armstrong
  • 66' Lyons for Vassell · off 79'
  • 66' Watson for Polworth
  • 66' van Veen for Watkins
  • 79' McKenzie for Lyons

Players

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ButlandGK900.000.0000.0220
TavernierRB901.180.6850.43164
BalogunCB460.000.0100.0752
SouttarCB9010.490.0310.18147
BarisicLB790.020.3110.25114
DiomandeDM900.260.0840.0040
LundstramDM7910.210.6550.37113
SterlingRW680.710.1720.14101
CantwellAM680.170.1710.26100
SilvaLW9010.990.1030.1860
DessersST900.120.114−0.1610
DaviesDF4410.470.0000.0424
McCauslandMF2210.060.1220.2332
LawrenceMF2210.180.0110.0510
YilmazDF110.000.0000.0101
RaskinMF110.040.0100.0100

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0332
MayoRB900.090.0000.01110
Wright CB220.000.0100.0311
FindlayCB900.000.0000.00013
Ndaba LB900.210.0100.02116
ArmstrongRM250.000.0000.0001
DonnellyCM900.050.0000.0006
Polworth CM660.000.0400.1821
KennedyLM900.000.2110.0644
Watkins AM660.000.000−0.0103
VassellST660.040.000−0.0201
DeasDF650.000.0000.01014
LyonsMF130.000.011−0.0100
WatsonMF240.000.000−0.0101
van VeenFW240.000.010−0.0102
McKenzieMF110.000.001−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Rangers

Souttar and Cantwell: 4 passesBarisic and Silva: 4 passesLundstram and Silva: 4 passesButland and Balogun: 5 passesTavernier and Souttar: 5 passesBalogun and Lundstram: 5 passesCantwell and Silva: 5 passesButland and Souttar: 6 passesSouttar and Silva: 6 passesBarisic and Cantwell: 6 passesLundstram and Diomande: 6 passesDiomande and Silva: 6 passesSterling and Cantwell: 6 passesTavernier and Diomande: 7 passesTavernier and Cantwell: 7 passesBalogun and Diomande: 8 passesLundstram and Sterling: 8 passesLundstram and Cantwell: 9 passesTavernier and Sterling: 10 passesBarisic and Lundstram: 10 passesDiomande and Cantwell: 10 passesSouttar and Barisic: 14 passesTavernier and Balogun: 16 passesTavernier and Lundstram: 16 passesBalogun and Souttar: 17 passesSouttar and Lundstram: 18 passesButland: 11 completed passesTavernier: 38 completed passesBalogun: 30 completed passesSouttar: 36 completed passesBarisic: 29 completed passesLundstram: 41 completed passesDiomande: 22 completed passesSterling: 11 completed passesCantwell: 22 completed passesSilva: 12 completed passesDessers: 2 completed passes1227531442211379ButlandTavernierBalogunSouttarBarisicLundstramDiomandeSterlingCantwellSilvaDessersStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Dennis: 1 completed passesMayo: 0 completed passesWright: 4 completed passesFindlay: 1 completed passesNdaba: 1 completed passesArmstrong: 1 completed passesPolworth: 6 completed passesDonnelly: 3 completed passesKennedy: 0 completed passesWatkins: 0 completed passesVassell: 3 completed passes15417311312210239DennisMayoWrightFindlayNdabaArmstrongPolworthDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 22' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Rangers

FromToPasses
SouttarLundstram17
TavernierSterling15
SouttarTavernier14
LundstramTavernier13
BarisicLundstram12

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DennisVassell6
NdabaDonnelly4
DeasMayo4
PolworthDonnelly3
PolworthWatkins3

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Rangers

0−3.31−3.41−3.27+3.13−3.02−2.88+3.911+4.28+0.15−1.96+0.92−1.48+1.95−1.46+1.23−1.12−1.13−1.250.03+0.33+0.42+0.40−2.31−1.60−0.80−0.82+1.21+0.52+0.93−5.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 34 matches

Kilmarnock

4−0.310+2.934+22.016+8.16+1.71−5.95−2.26−0.39+3.210+3.22−4.27+2.24+0.24−0.46+1.00−5.35+1.42−0.71−2.31−3.52−0.92+0.23+2.32+0.42−0.51+0.20−0.30−0.80−0.20−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 34 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Rangers

0.010.010.010.010.010.040.040.030.030.060.090.020.040.160.120.040.140.170.090.010.050.100.10−0.120.090.270.250.22LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.020.04−0.010.010.01−0.01−0.01−0.030.030.02−0.01−0.02−0.010.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackRangers2.13 → 2.19Kilmarnock1.26 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Rangers0.77 → 0.76Kilmarnock1.17 → 1.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Rangers
Title9%11%+2
Celtic
Title91%89%−2

From the forecast before the match (5 May 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

RangersKilmarnock
Expected goals2.300.67
Win74%9%
Expected Points2.390.44
Clean sheet51%10%

Rangers 74%Draw 17%Kilmarnock 9%

Most likely score 2–0, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

Kilmarnock goalsRangers goals0123456+0123456+6%3%1%8%3%9%3%7%2%6%4%1%3%2%2%1%11%14%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 5 May 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRangers winDrawKilmarnock win
Rangers
Title9%11%3%1%
Celtic
Title91%89%97%99%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Rangers

  1. W2–128 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.74–0.85
  2. D0–017 AprDundee FC (A)xG 1.06–0.51
  3. L2–314 AprRoss County (A)xG 3.57–2.91
  4. D3–37 AprCeltic (H)xG 1.69–1.96
  5. W3–130 MarHibernian (H)xG 2.82–0.50
  6. L1–22 MarMotherwell (H)xG 3.40–0.83

Kilmarnock

  1. D0–027 AprHearts (H)xG 0.89–1.95
  2. W2–013 AprSt. Johnstone (A)xG 3.51–1.22
  3. W1–06 AprRoss County (H)xG 0.98–0.47
  4. D1–130 MarHearts (A)xG 1.55–1.61
  5. W5–216 MarSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.91–0.74
  6. D2–22 MarDundee FC (A)xG 1.56–1.53

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

RangersKilmarnock
Position2nd4th
Played3434
Won, drawn, lost25–⁠3–⁠613–⁠13–⁠8
Points78 (2.29 per game)52 (1.53 per game)
Expected Points per game2.311.45
Goals74–⁠2443–⁠34
xG per game2.34–⁠0.711.30–⁠1.14
Home: points, xG per game2.35, 2.52–⁠0.701.94, 1.30–⁠0.93
Away: points, xG per game2.24, 2.16–⁠0.721.06, 1.31–⁠1.36
ManagerPhilippe Clement (26)Derek McInnes (72)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackRangers2.13, 2ndKilmarnock1.26, 4thDefence (lower is better)Rangers0.77, 2ndKilmarnock1.17, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayRangers attack: 2.13Kilmarnock attack: 1.262.131.26KilmarnockRangersDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayRangers defence: 0.77Kilmarnock defence: 1.171.170.77

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

RangersKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+81%−53%−16%−20%
Counter-attacks+40%−15%−3%average
Set pieces+27%−44%+28%−6%
Penalties+120%−56%−27%−41%
Headers+42%−59%+28%−21%
Left side+70%−36%−3%−21%
Centre+54%−51%−3%−16%
Right side+75%−52%−3%−4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+70%−4%Centre+54%−16%Right side+75%−21%Open play+81%−20%Counter-attacks+40%averageSet pieces+27%−6%Headers+42%−21%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRangers concededLeft side−3%−52%Centre−3%−51%Right side−3%−36%Open play−16%−53%Counter-attacks−3%−15%Set pieces+28%−44%Headers+28%−59%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

RangersKilmarnock

2.34xG1.30
0.71xG against1.14
63%Possession47%
21.1Shots13.1
7.7Shots against12.1
7.3Shots on target4.1
3.5Big chances2.1
35.2Touches in the opposition box22.8
537Passes335
82%Pass accuracy64%
7.6Corners6.2
71%Field tilt50%
59.4Final-third entries33.3
19.1Box entries12.1
10.8Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level272.140.89
Ahead452.350.56
Behind182.640.83

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.091.10
Ahead201.501.21
Behind231.571.15

xG by period

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.250.128–6
16–300.380.1113–2
31–450.410.1215–6
46–600.360.157–4
61–750.360.0911–4
76–900.570.1120–2

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.154–5
16–300.200.137–4
31–450.220.254–11
46–600.230.086–5
61–750.200.2311–4
76–900.320.2911–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTButland 34Tavernier 34Goldson 30Souttar 22Balogun 12Davies 4Barisic 16Yilmaz 15Sterling 3Raskin 9Diomande 6Cifuentes 6Lundstram 27Cantwell 5Jack 4McCausland 12Wright 6Lammers 4Cantwell 15Lammers 6Lawrence 5Sima 15Silva 5Matondo 5Dessers 23Silva 4Danilo 44-2-3-1 in 26 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (26), 4-3-3 (6), 4-3-1-2 (2)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTDennis 33O'Hara 1Mayo 20Wright 10Armstrong 2Wright 14Deas 12Mayo 11Findlay 31Deas 8Ndaba 8Watson 7Armstrong 31Mayo 2Watson 1Lyons 15Watson 13Watkins 1Polworth 16Donnelly 11Magennis 5Kennedy 22Ndaba 8Deas 2Watkins 29Kennedy 4Vassell 29Polworth 2Donnelly 24-4-2 in 13 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (13), 3-5-2 (13), 4-1-4-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 February 2024Kilmarnock1–2RangersxG 1.36–0.73
2 January 2024Rangers3–1KilmarnockxG 2.27–1.55
5 August 2023Kilmarnock1–0RangersxG 0.52–1.36
4 March 2023Rangers3–1KilmarnockxG 3.55–0.79
18 January 2023Kilmarnock2–3RangersxG 0.79–1.49
6 August 2022Rangers2–0KilmarnockxG 1.77–0.37

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Rangers won 8, Kilmarnock won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 17–6 and xG 2.04–0.67 per game.

Key players

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Danilo5529410.980.09
Dessers231,9591430.750.10
Tavernier343,0511790.440.34
Sima171,6031120.440.13

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong342,8556100.250.29
Kennedy272,503330.170.16
Vassell292,405830.260.06
Watkins302,487910.260.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.