Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 1–2 Rangers

Wednesday 28 February 2024, 19:45 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 28 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 9,576

Kilmarnock Armstrong 11' (pen)

Rangers Tavernier 55', Lawrence 59'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockRangers
Goals12
xG1.360.73
Non-penalty xG0.570.73
Expected Points1.950.75

Kilmarnock 55%Draw 30%Rangers 15%

Most likely score 1–0, 23%. Final score 1–2, 6%.

Rangers goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+6%4%1%6%1%14%11%4%3%3%23%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTStewart on for Watkins and van Veen on for Vassell, 75'Balagizi on for Polworth, McKenzie on for Armstrong, and Watson on for Donnelly, 83'Yilmaz on for Barisic and Dessers on for Silva, 46'Sterling on for McCausland, 56'Wright on for Cortés, 70'Raskin on for Lawrence, 75'Armstrong 11' (pen)Tavernier 55'Lawrence 59'Kilmarnock 1.36Rangers 0.7300.511.50153045607590HTStewart on for Watkins and van Veen on for Vassell, 75'Balagizi on for Polworth, McKenzie on for Armstrong, and Watson on for Donnelly, 83'Yilmaz on for Barisic and Dessers on for Silva, 46'Sterling on for McCausland, 56'Wright on for Cortés, 70'Raskin on for Lawrence, 75'Armstrong 11' (pen)Tavernier 55'Lawrence 59'1.360.73KilmarnockRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockRangers

1.36 +0.16xG0.73 −1.66
0.57Non-penalty xG0.73
1.72 +0.46xG on target1.06 −1.28
10 −3Shots14 −7
3 −0.9Shots on target5 −2.4
4 +2.1Big chances2 −1.6
20 −2Touches in the opposition box21 −14
44% −2Possession56% −8
332 −1Passes432 −117
59% −5Pass accuracy73% −9
44% −7Field tilt56% −15
24 −9Final-third entries39 −21
10 −2Box entries12 −7
29.5 +15Passes per defensive action8.8 −2
8 +1.6Corners6 −1.1
16 +2Tackles14 −2
4 −3.0Interceptions6 −1.4
18 −3Clearances25 +10
3 +0.1Saves2 +0.1
8 −4Fouls16 +6
0 −1.1Offsides2 −0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Kennedy 46', 0.23 xGDonnelly 8', 0.07 xGVassell 45+2', 0.06 xGVassell 47', 0.06 xGKennedy 69', 0.05 xGDonnelly 38', 0.03 xGFindlay 61', 0.03 xGWatkins 75', 0.03 xGWright 90+8', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals78%0.45 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.45 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals19%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Silva 5', 0.11 xGDessers 65', 0.11 xGGoldson 19', 0.10 xGGoldson 5', 0.07 xGTavernier 82', 0.05 xGCortés 6', 0.03 xGSouttar 25', 0.03 xGCortés 18', 0.02 xGDiomande 28', 0.02 xGDiomande 42', 0.02 xGDiomande 72', 0.02 xGDiomande 78', 0.02 xGTavernier 55', 0.11 xG, goalLawrence 59', 0.03 xG, goal15%0.11 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.11 xG, 0 goals41%0.30 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals12%0.09 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 1 goal30%0.22 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.22 xG, 1 goal3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockRangers

0.20 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.22 6 shots, 0 goals
0.37 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.51 8 shots, 2 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
15 min (15%) · Kilmarnock 0.86, Rangers 0.24 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
46 min (46%) · Kilmarnock 0.38, Rangers 0.29 xG
Rangers ahead
39 min (39%) · Kilmarnock 0.12, Rangers 0.20 xG

Line-ups

14517311312210239DennisWrightMayoFindlayNdabaArmstrongPolworthDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellYellow cardYellow cardGoal83'83'83'75'75'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes1265314424511167ButlandTavernierGoldsonSouttarBarisicLundstramDiomandeMcCauslandLawrenceCortésSilvaGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoal46'56'75'70'46'Rangers 4-2-3-1Philippe Clement

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 75' Stewart for Watkins
  • 75' van Veen for Vassell
  • 83' Watson for Donnelly · yellow card 88'
  • 83' McKenzie for Armstrong
  • 83' Balagizi for Polworth

Rangers substitutes

  • 46' Yilmaz for Barisic
  • 46' Dessers for Silva
  • 56' Sterling for McCausland
  • 70' Wright for Cortés
  • 75' Raskin for Lawrence

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0110
WrightRB900.020.0000.0224
Mayo CB900.000.0000.0122
Findlay CB900.030.0100.0545
NdabaLB900.000.0700.19813
ArmstrongRM8310.790.1630.1461
PolworthCM830.000.0610.1031
DonnellyCM830.100.0110.1212
KennedyLM900.270.010−0.0224
WatkinsST750.030.0710.0942
VassellST750.120.000−0.0103
StewartMF150.000.1110.0610
van VeenFW150.000.0200.0110
Watson MF70.000.0000.0011
McKenzieMF70.000.0000.0101
BalagiziFW70.000.0000.0111

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ButlandGK900.000.0000.0320
TavernierRB9010.160.2440.0595
Goldson CB900.160.0100.0648
SouttarCB900.030.0210.08810
Barisic LB460.000.1300.0941
LundstramDM900.000.0220.0463
DiomandeDM900.080.0200.0115
McCauslandRW560.000.1110.1741
LawrenceAM7510.030.0200.0121
CortésLW700.060.0500.1261
SilvaST460.110.010−0.0200
YilmazDF440.000.0100.0435
DessersFW440.110.0100.0711
SterlingDF340.000.0400.0731
WrightFW200.000.0110.0445
RaskinMF150.000.011−0.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Wright and Findlay: 3 passesMayo and Polworth: 3 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 3 passesFindlay and Donnelly: 3 passesFindlay and Kennedy: 3 passesFindlay and Vassell: 3 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 3 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 3 passesPolworth and Kennedy: 3 passesDonnelly and Watkins: 3 passesDennis and Wright: 4 passesDennis and Findlay: 4 passesWright and Polworth: 4 passesWright and Donnelly: 4 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 4 passesNdaba and Watkins: 5 passesWright and Armstrong: 6 passesFindlay and Polworth: 6 passesNdaba and Vassell: 6 passesPolworth and Donnelly: 6 passesWatkins and Vassell: 6 passesKennedy and Watkins: 7 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 11 passesNdaba and Polworth: 12 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 15 passesDennis: 9 completed passesWright: 15 completed passesMayo: 7 completed passesFindlay: 15 completed passesNdaba: 25 completed passesArmstrong: 16 completed passesPolworth: 27 completed passesDonnelly: 12 completed passesKennedy: 13 completed passesWatkins: 13 completed passesVassell: 6 completed passes14517311312210239DennisWrightMayoFindlayNdabaArmstrongPolworthDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 75' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Rangers

Souttar and Cortés: 4 passesLundstram and McCausland: 4 passesLundstram and Lawrence: 4 passesDiomande and McCausland: 4 passesMcCausland and Lawrence: 4 passesMcCausland and Silva: 4 passesLawrence and Cortés: 4 passesTavernier and Diomande: 5 passesTavernier and Lawrence: 5 passesGoldson and Lawrence: 5 passesTavernier and McCausland: 6 passesGoldson and McCausland: 8 passesSouttar and Diomande: 8 passesBarisic and Lundstram: 8 passesGoldson and Lundstram: 9 passesLundstram and Diomande: 9 passesTavernier and Goldson: 12 passesSouttar and Barisic: 13 passesBarisic and Cortés: 14 passesSouttar and Lundstram: 18 passesGoldson and Souttar: 29 passesButland: 11 completed passesTavernier: 21 completed passesGoldson: 34 completed passesSouttar: 42 completed passesBarisic: 25 completed passesLundstram: 30 completed passesDiomande: 19 completed passesMcCausland: 15 completed passesLawrence: 16 completed passesCortés: 10 completed passesSilva: 6 completed passes1265314424511167ButlandTavernierGoldsonSouttarBarisicLundstramDiomandeMcCauslandLawrenceCortésSilvaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
NdabaKennedy11
PolworthNdaba8
KennedyNdaba8
ArmstrongPolworth6
NdabaPolworth6

Rangers

FromToPasses
SouttarGoldson17
GoldsonSouttar16
TavernierDiomande12
GoldsonTavernier11
LundstramSouttar10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−1.47−0.38−4.410+2.14−0.47−0.23−4.47+0.84−1.79+2.68+2.23−1.73−0.75+0.74−1.58+2.83−0.60−2.79+5.86+1.630.02+0.20−0.70−1.71−1.60−1.00−0.31+0.20−0.20−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Rangers

2−1.47+2.515+6.63−1.34−0.29+3.11−3.73−1.270.07−1.510+3.05−0.26+2.56−0.38+1.22−3.13−1.44+0.86+2.06+1.14+1.41−1.70−1.81−1.43+0.50−0.91+0.31+0.21+0.41−0.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.020.010.010.010.010.030.05−0.010.020.040.050.020.100.110.090.110.08LessMore

Rangers

0.010.010.020.020.020.020.020.020.030.050.050.040.040.010.020.040.060.060.070.01−0.060.010.080.110.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackKilmarnock1.17 → 1.19Rangers2.30 → 2.24Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.22 → 1.21Rangers0.67 → 0.69

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Rangers
Title71%75%+4
Celtic
Title29%25%−4

From the forecast before the match (28 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockRangers
Expected goals0.721.97
Win12%66%
Expected Points0.582.21
Clean sheet14%49%

Kilmarnock 12%Draw 21%Rangers 66%

Most likely score 0–2, 13%. Both sides score 45%.

Rangers goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%9%4%2%4%6%3%1%2%3%3%2%1%13%13%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawRangers win
Rangers
Title71%58%63%75%
Celtic
Title29%42%37%25%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–024 FebAberdeen (H)xG 1.94–0.48
  2. D1–117 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.95–1.49
  3. W1–07 FebLivingston (H)xG 0.75–0.72
  4. D1–13 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.24–1.14
  5. D2–227 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.69–1.58
  6. L1–32 JanRangers (A)xG 1.55–2.27

Rangers

  1. W5–024 FebHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.60
  2. W3–018 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.96–0.21
  3. W3–114 FebRoss County (H)xG 4.94–0.54
  4. W2–16 FebAberdeen (H)xG 2.12–0.53
  5. W3–03 FebLivingston (H)xG 2.68–0.00
  6. W1–027 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.34–0.61

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockRangers
Position4th1st
Played2727
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠10–⁠722–⁠1–⁠4
Points40 (1.48 per game)67 (2.48 per game)
Expected Points per game1.382.43
Goals31–⁠2761–⁠13
xG per game1.20–⁠1.122.39–⁠0.57
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.30–⁠0.922.57, 2.50–⁠0.62
Away: points, xG per game0.92, 1.10–⁠1.342.38, 2.28–⁠0.51
ManagerDerek McInnes (65)Philippe Clement (19)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackKilmarnock1.17, 5thRangers2.30, 1stDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.22, 4thRangers0.67, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock attack: 1.17Rangers attack: 2.302.301.17RangersKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock defence: 1.22Rangers defence: 0.671.220.67

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−17%−19%+95%−61%
Counter-attacks−15%+25%+58%−43%
Set pieces+21%−9%+25%−43%
Penalties−42%−42%+112%−81%
Headers+30%−17%+39%−64%
Left side−3%−30%+75%−45%
Centre−11%−11%+65%−61%
Right sideaverage+1%+89%−54%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRangers concededLeft side−3%−54%Centre−11%−61%Right sideaverage−45%Open play−17%−61%Counter-attacks−15%−43%Set pieces+21%−43%Headers+30%−64%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+75%+1%Centre+65%−11%Right side+89%−30%Open play+95%−19%Counter-attacks+58%+25%Set pieces+25%−9%Headers+39%−17%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockRangers

1.20xG2.39
1.12xG against0.57
46%Possession64%
13.2Shots21.2
12.1Shots against6.9
3.9Shots on target7.4
1.9Big chances3.6
22.3Touches in the opposition box35.1
333Passes549
64%Pass accuracy82%
6.4Corners7.1
50%Field tilt72%
33.3Final-third entries59.7
12.0Box entries19.2
14.3Passes per defensive action11.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.021.00
Ahead201.301.28
Behind221.511.26

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level252.300.71
Ahead512.380.50
Behind142.620.57

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.133–3
16–300.220.146–3
31–450.190.253–10
46–600.230.076–3
61–750.160.215–3
76–900.290.328–5

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.280.097–3
16–300.340.1112–2
31–450.440.0613–3
46–600.330.123–2
61–750.410.0710–2
76–900.590.1116–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 26O'Hara 1Mayo 26Wright 17Deas 12Findlay 26Armstro… 26ArmstrongMayo 1Watson 20Davies 2Watkins 1Polworth 10Ndaba 4Deas 3Lyons 20Donnelly 8Magennis 7Kennedy 15Ndaba 9Donnelly 1Watkins 22Kennedy 4Vassell 22Ndaba 2Findlay 13-5-2 in 12 of 27 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (12), 4-4-2 (7), 4-1-4-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTButland 27Tavernier 27Goldson 24Souttar 15Balogun 11Davies 4Yilmaz 14Barisic 12Sterling 1Raskin 8Cifuentes 6Lawrence 4Lundstram 20Cantwell 5Jack 4McCausland 11Wright 4Lammers 4Cantwell 11Lammers 6Lundstram 3Sima 15Matondo 5Cortés 2Dessers 18Danilo 4Silva 34-2-3-1 in 19 of 27 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (19), 4-3-3 (6), 4-3-1-2 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 January 2024Rangers3–1KilmarnockxG 2.27–1.55
5 August 2023Kilmarnock1–0RangersxG 0.52–1.36
4 March 2023Rangers3–1KilmarnockxG 3.55–0.79
18 January 2023Kilmarnock2–3RangersxG 0.79–1.49
6 August 2022Rangers2–0KilmarnockxG 1.77–0.37
13 February 2021Rangers1–0KilmarnockxG 1.47–0.08

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Rangers won 7, and 0 were drawn. Goals 5–15 and xG 0.59–2.21 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong272,275490.240.29
Kennedy201,881330.180.18
Vassell221,850510.270.07
Watson201,861420.150.10

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Danilo5529410.980.09
Dessers181,4711220.800.11
Tavernier272,4211280.410.32
Sima151,3801020.450.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.