Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Dundee United 0–1 Hearts

Sunday 5 January 2025, 15:00 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 22 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 10,214

Hearts Penrice 73'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedHearts
Goals01
xG0.660.85
Expected Points1.151.46

Dundee United 25%Draw 39%Hearts 36%

Most likely score 0–0, 22%. Final score 0–1, 18%.

Hearts goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+8%2%15%15%6%1%5%4%2%22%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTDocherty on for Odada and van der Sande on for Thomson, 39'Trapanovski on for Gallagher and Middleton on for Stephenson, 72'Fotheringham on for Sevelj, 86'Boateng on for Boyce and Forrest on for Drammeh, 76'Vargas on for Grant, 86'McCart on for Wilson, 90+1'Penrice 73'Hearts 0.85Dundee United 0.6600.250.50.7510153045607590HTDocherty on for Odada and van der Sande on for Thomson, 39'Trapanovski on for Gallagher and Middleton on for Stephenson, 72'Fotheringham on for Sevelj, 86'Boateng on for Boyce and Forrest on for Drammeh, 76'Vargas on for Grant, 86'McCart on for Wilson, 90+1'Penrice 73'0.850.66Dundee UnitedHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedHearts

0.66 −0.87xG0.85 −0.32
0.46 −1.15xG on target0.69 −0.36
7 −5Shots15 +2
1 −3.2Shots on target5 +1.2
0 −2.2Big chances1 −1.1
27 +3Touches in the opposition box28 +2
53% +9Possession47% −9
407 +80Passes362 −96
70% +1Pass accuracy70% −8
39% −3Field tilt61% +2
30 0Final-third entries34 −10
9 −1Box entries13 +1
14.1 −1Passes per defensive action13.8 +1
5 +0.3Corners5 −1.6
19 +1Tackles16 −3
2 −6.1Interceptions6 −3.3
54 +18Clearances58 +34
3 +0.2Saves2 −0.5
11 −1Fouls8 −3
6 +5.2Offsides1 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Odada 24', 0.17 xGDalby 90+4', 0.12 xGHolt 22', 0.11 xGStrain 50', 0.10 xGDocherty 90+4', 0.07 xGvan der Sande 50', 0.06 xGDalby 71', 0.04 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals100%0.67 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.67 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Drammeh 58', 0.16 xGDrammeh 52', 0.13 xGHalkett 29', 0.09 xGDrammeh 10', 0.07 xGSpittal 45+1', 0.06 xGDrammeh 29', 0.05 xGForrest 76', 0.05 xGWilson 90', 0.05 xGSpittal 29', 0.03 xGSpittal 52', 0.03 xGSpittal 31', 0.02 xGDrammeh 37', 0.02 xGDevlin 38', 0.02 xGBoyce 13', 0.01 xGPenrice 73', 0.05 xG, goal29%0.25 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals36%0.31 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.31 xG, 1 goal8%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals21%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals5%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedHearts

0.33 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.26 6 shots, 1 goal
0.34 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.59 9 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
74 min (78%) · Dundee United 0.48, Hearts 0.75 xG
Hearts ahead
21 min (22%) · Dundee United 0.18, Hearts 0.10 xG

Line-ups

116314212511171929WaltonAdegboyegaGallagherHoltStrainOdadaSeveljFerryStephensonDalbyThomsonYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card72'39'86'72'39'Dundee United 3-4-1-2Jim Goodwin1354152914737271621GordonForresterHalkettRowlesPenriceDevlinGrantDrammehBoyceSpittalWilsonGoalYellow card86'76'76'90+1'Hearts 4-2-3-1Neil Critchley

Dundee United substitutes

  • 39' Docherty for Odada
  • 39' van der Sande for Thomson
  • 72' Middleton for Stephenson
  • 72' Trapanovski for Gallagher
  • 86' Fotheringham for Sevelj

Hearts substitutes

  • 76' Forrest for Drammeh · yellow card 84'
  • 76' Boateng for Boyce
  • 86' Vargas for Grant
  • 90+1' McCart for Wilson

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WaltonGK900.000.0000.0112
AdegboyegaCB900.000.0400.151111
Gallagher CB720.000.0100.04613
Holt CB900.110.1910.00316
StrainRWB900.100.1310.0256
OdadaCM390.170.0700.0716
Sevelj CM860.000.0200.0724
FerryLWB900.000.1910.37106
Stephenson AM720.000.0110.0116
DalbyST900.160.0500.0424
ThomsonST390.000.010−0.0810
DochertyMF510.070.000−0.0514
van der SandeFW510.060.111−0.0102
MiddletonFW180.000.000−0.0101
TrapanovskiFW180.000.0000.0001
FotheringhamFW40.000.0100.0000

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0121
ForresterRB900.000.0700.0787
HalkettCB900.090.0000.03215
RowlesCB900.000.000−0.08315
PenriceLB9010.050.3720.2589
DevlinDM900.020.0200.0137
GrantDM860.000.1610.1226
DrammehRW760.420.0100.0346
BoyceAM7610.010.0330.0531
SpittalLW900.150.3620.20166
Wilson ST900.050.1510.0535
Forrest MF140.050.000−0.0411
BoatengMF140.000.0000.0002
VargasMF40.000.0110.0210
McCartDF00.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Walton and Gallagher: 3 passesWalton and Holt: 3 passesAdegboyega and Strain: 3 passesAdegboyega and Stephenson: 3 passesGallagher and Strain: 3 passesGallagher and Sevelj: 3 passesGallagher and Odada: 3 passesStrain and Sevelj: 3 passesSevelj and Ferry: 3 passesSevelj and Thomson: 3 passesStephenson and Dalby: 3 passesAdegboyega and Gallagher: 4 passesStrain and Dalby: 4 passesFerry and Thomson: 4 passesHolt and Ferry: 5 passesStrain and Ferry: 6 passesStrain and Thomson: 6 passesGallagher and Holt: 8 passesStrain and Stephenson: 11 passesWalton: 8 completed passesAdegboyega: 6 completed passesGallagher: 12 completed passesHolt: 12 completed passesStrain: 19 completed passesSevelj: 10 completed passesOdada: 9 completed passesFerry: 12 completed passesStephenson: 12 completed passesDalby: 5 completed passesThomson: 11 completed passes116314251211171929WaltonAdegboyegaGallagherHoltStrainSeveljOdadaFerryStephensonDalbyThomsonStarters until 39' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Rowles and Devlin: 4 passesDrammeh and Boyce: 4 passesHalkett and Grant: 5 passesPenrice and Boyce: 5 passesDevlin and Grant: 5 passesGordon and Rowles: 6 passesRowles and Spittal: 6 passesHalkett and Spittal: 6 passesDevlin and Drammeh: 6 passesBoyce and Wilson: 6 passesRowles and Penrice: 7 passesForrester and Boyce: 8 passesRowles and Grant: 8 passesBoyce and Spittal: 8 passesForrester and Halkett: 9 passesPenrice and Grant: 9 passesForrester and Drammeh: 10 passesRowles and Halkett: 10 passesGrant and Spittal: 10 passesHalkett and Devlin: 13 passesForrester and Devlin: 18 passesPenrice and Spittal: 29 passesGordon: 9 completed passesForrester: 30 completed passesRowles: 25 completed passesHalkett: 28 completed passesPenrice: 33 completed passesDevlin: 30 completed passesGrant: 25 completed passesDrammeh: 11 completed passesBoyce: 13 completed passesSpittal: 26 completed passesWilson: 8 completed passes1351542914737271621GordonForresterRowlesHalkettPenriceDevlinGrantDrammehBoyceSpittalWilsonStarters until 76' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
FerryHolt13
GallagherHolt10
GallagherAdegboyega10
HoltGallagher10
StephensonStrain8

Hearts

FromToPasses
PenriceSpittal18
DevlinForrester13
SpittalPenrice12
GrantSpittal9
ForresterBoyce8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

3−1.414+5.817−0.85−4.513+6.68+2.211+3.85−1.712+3.610+2.55−0.27+3.03−0.96+0.38+2.55+1.64+0.91−1.24+1.55+1.42−0.20−1.21−0.11−0.12+0.40−1.40−0.20−0.80−0.40−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Hearts

2−2.08+3.016+3.211+4.56+1.16−1.13−3.36+0.410+3.18+0.58+2.49+5.010+7.26+0.65−2.08+3.25+1.92−0.70−3.76+1.93+0.51−0.80−1.31−0.75+2.70−0.70−0.40−0.71+0.70−1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.010.010.010.050.020.010.010.010.030.010.020.020.080.01−0.010.01−0.01−0.010.070.01−0.08−0.210.070.160.170.15LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.010.040.010.030.050.010.050.010.020.080.050.030.060.070.03−0.02−0.050.070.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackDundee United1.28 → 1.26Hearts1.23 → 1.24Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.31 → 1.31Hearts1.36 → 1.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six98%94%−4
Hearts
Top six8%15%+7
11th16%11%−5
Bottom5%3%−2
Motherwell
Top six54%51%−3
11th4%4%0
Ross County
Top six5%6%+1
11th24%26%+2
Bottom11%10%−1

From the forecast before the match (5 January 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedHearts
Expected goals1.571.07
Win48%25%
Expected Points1.721.02
Clean sheet34%21%

Dundee United 48%Draw 26%Hearts 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%9%5%2%5%5%3%2%2%1%11%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 5 January 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawHearts win
Dundee United
Top six98%99%98%94%
Hearts
Top six8%5%8%15%
11th16%20%14%11%
Bottom5%7%5%3%
Motherwell
Top six54%54%56%51%
11th4%3%4%4%
Ross County
Top six5%6%5%6%
11th24%22%26%26%
Bottom11%11%12%10%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. W2–12 JanDundee FC (A)xG 2.48–1.90
  2. W1–029 DecAberdeen (H)xG 2.29–0.91
  3. W2–126 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.27–0.58
  4. D0–022 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.10–1.00
  5. L3–414 DecMotherwell (A)xG 2.02–2.09
  6. D1–17 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 2.38–1.62

Hearts

  1. W1–02 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.97–1.25
  2. D2–229 DecRoss County (A)xG 1.06–1.40
  3. L1–226 DecHibernian (H)xG 0.70–1.93
  4. W2–122 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.75–1.28
  5. L0–115 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.15–1.57
  6. W2–07 DecDundee FC (H)xG 1.75–0.54

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedHearts
Position3rd11th
Played2021
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠7–⁠45–⁠5–⁠11
Points34 (1.70 per game)20 (0.95 per game)
Expected Points per game1.451.18
Goals30–⁠2124–⁠31
xG per game1.53–⁠1.371.17–⁠1.51
Home: points, xG per game1.80, 1.61–⁠1.151.36, 1.26–⁠1.30
Away: points, xG per game1.60, 1.45–⁠1.590.50, 1.06–⁠1.73
ManagerJim Goodwin (32)Neil Critchley (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackDundee United1.28, 4thHearts1.23, 6thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.31, 4thHearts1.36, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanDundee United attack: 1.28Hearts attack: 1.231.281.23HeartsDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanDundee United defence: 1.31Hearts defence: 1.361.361.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+2%+3%−10%−6%
Counter-attacks+25%−38%−35%−13%
Set pieces−4%−19%−3%+10%
Penalties+48%+18%−100%+69%
Headers+41%−6%−8%+25%
Left side−10%+2%+7%+8%
Centre+21%−13%−21%−3%
Right side−27%−2%−4%−12%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHearts concededLeft side−10%−12%Centre+21%−3%Right side−27%+8%Open play+2%−6%Counter-attacks+25%−13%Set pieces−4%+10%Headers+41%+25%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdDundee United concededLeft side+7%−2%Centre−21%−13%Right side−4%+2%Open play−10%+3%Counter-attacks−35%−38%Set pieces−3%−19%Headers−8%−6%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedHearts

1.53xG1.17
1.37xG against1.51
44%Possession56%
11.9Shots13.0
13.4Shots against11.3
4.2Shots on target3.8
2.2Big chances2.1
23.9Touches in the opposition box25.6
327Passes458
69%Pass accuracy78%
4.7Corners6.6
43%Field tilt58%
29.9Final-third entries44.3
10.2Box entries12.2
14.9Passes per defensive action12.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level581.351.32
Ahead171.701.81
Behind152.011.10

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.141.74
Ahead221.201.22
Behind311.181.41

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.152–2
16–300.230.203–3
31–450.180.252–4
46–600.220.166–2
61–750.210.323–6
76–900.500.2914–4

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.193–4
16–300.120.234–3
31–450.140.274–5
46–600.160.293–6
61–750.150.174–4
76–900.370.366–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTWalton 20Adegboyega 17Dalby 1Ferry 1Gallagher 18Holt 15Graham 6Strain 10Stephenson 8Sevelj 2Babunski 11Sibbald 7Holt 2Sevelj 9Ferry 7Docherty 2Ferry 9Stephenson 4Fotheringham 2Middleton 8Sevelj 5Stephenson 5Trapanovski 8Moult 3Ferry 2Dalby 13van der Sande 6Babunski 13-4-2-1 in 7 of 20 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (7), 3-4-3 (6), 3-5-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-4-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 19Clark 2Oyegoke 10Forrester 5Taylor 4Kent 12Halkett 7Oyegoke 2Rowles 19Kingsley 2Penrice 15Kingsley 3Grant 1Devlin 13Baningime 7Penrice 1Boateng 13Grant 5Spittal 1Drammeh 6Forrest 5Vargas 3Shankland 7Grant 3Spittal 2Spittal 13Forrest 3Vargas 2Shankland 11Wilson 5Vargas 44-2-3-1 in 11 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (11), 4-4-2 (4), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 September 2024Hearts0–1Dundee UnitedxG 0.63–1.26
4 February 2023Hearts3–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.01–1.22
24 December 2022Dundee United2–2HeartsxG 0.79–1.72
14 August 2022Hearts4–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.80–1.21
24 April 2022Dundee United2–3HeartsxG 2.07–3.00
5 March 2022Dundee United2–2HeartsxG 1.28–0.77

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 1, Hearts won 5, and 2 were drawn. Goals 11–21 and xG 1.14–1.67 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dalby151,3191000.550.04
Trapanovski9693110.340.16
Babunski161,203110.140.15
Ferry191,710040.060.21

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland181,581330.320.15
Wilson5490400.300.12
Vargas12992210.270.12
Drammeh7590200.300.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.