Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

St. Mirren 1–0 Hearts

Saturday 23 September 2023, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 6 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 7,537

St. Mirren Strain 7'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHearts
Goals10
xG1.591.19
Expected Points1.701.01

St. Mirren 47%Draw 30%Hearts 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 1–0, 11%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+3%3%2%11%10%3%9%8%3%3%5%3%1%1%18%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTGreive on for McMenamin and Mandron on for Olusanya, 60'Boyd-Munce on for Baccus, 61'Dunne on for Taylor, 76'Sibbick on for Atkinson, 45+3'Offiah on for Rowles, 64'Forrest on for Baningime, 65'Grant on for Devlin, 76'Strain 7'St. Mirren 1.59Hearts 1.1900.511.520153045607590HTGreive on for McMenamin and Mandron on for Olusanya, 60'Boyd-Munce on for Baccus, 61'Dunne on for Taylor, 76'Sibbick on for Atkinson, 45+3'Offiah on for Rowles, 64'Forrest on for Baningime, 65'Grant on for Devlin, 76'Strain 7'1.591.19St. MirrenHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHearts

1.59 +0.39xG1.19 +0.05
1.92 +0.41xG on target0.72 −0.76
13 +2Shots11 −2
5 +1.2Shots on target3 −1.0
4 +1.2Big chances1 −0.6
18 −1Touches in the opposition box20 −10
30% −16Possession70% +6
237 −82Passes562 +72
56% −5Pass accuracy83% +6
29% −14Field tilt71% +7
27 −3Final-third entries56 +10
13 +3.4Box entries5 −11.6
13.7 −2.7Passes per defensive action9.6 −0.3
4 0.0Corners8 −1.6
13 −2Tackles11 −2
12 +4.2Interceptions8 +0.8
19 −9Clearances8 −10
2 −0.8Saves3 −0.4
13 +2Fouls12 +1
1 −1.2Offsides0 −1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Gogic 47', 0.19 xGOlusanya 22', 0.11 xGMandron 68', 0.10 xGKiltie 22', 0.08 xGKiltie 26', 0.07 xGMcMenamin 53', 0.07 xGKiltie 85', 0.06 xGMcMenamin 18', 0.04 xGMcMenamin 45+5', 0.03 xGTanser 30', 0.02 xGBaccus 45+7', 0.02 xGO'Hara 63', 0.01 xGStrain 7', 0.79 xG, goal69%1.09 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.09 xG, 1 goal23%0.37 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.37 xG, 0 goals5%0.08 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Boyce 16', 0.26 xGDevlin 52', 0.18 xGRowles 59', 0.15 xGDevlin 75', 0.13 xGShankland 90+6', 0.12 xGKingsley 74', 0.11 xGKent 81', 0.10 xGBoyce 78', 0.06 xGShankland 79', 0.06 xGForrest 81', 0.02 xGAtkinson 29', 0.01 xG9%0.11 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.11 xG, 0 goals84%0.99 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.99 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals7%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHearts

1.20 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.75 5 shots, 0 goals
0.18 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.21 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.44 6 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
7 min (7%) · St. Mirren 0.79, Hearts 0.00 xG
St. Mirren ahead
96 min (93%) · St. Mirren 0.80, Hearts 1.19 xG

Line-ups

122135231763102011HemmingFraserGogicTaylorStrainBaccusO'HaraTanserMcMenaminOlusanyaKiltieGoalYellow cardYellow card76'61'60'60'St. Mirren 3-4-3Stephen Robinson28132153681410779ClarkAtkinsonKentRowlesKingsleyBaningimeNieuwenhofDevlinBoyceVargasShanklandYellow card45+3'64'65'76'Hearts 4-2-3-1Steven Naismith

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 60' Greive for McMenamin
  • 60' Mandron for Olusanya
  • 61' Boyd-Munce for Baccus
  • 76' Dunne for Taylor

Hearts substitutes

  • 45+3' Sibbick for Atkinson
  • 64' Offiah for Rowles
  • 65' Forrest for Baningime
  • 76' Grant for Devlin

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0330
FraserCB900.000.0100.0425
GogicCB900.190.0000.0458
TaylorCB760.000.0000.0322
StrainRWB9010.790.0930.2378
Baccus CM610.020.0100.0333
O'HaraCM900.010.0110.0013
TanserLWB9010.020.4840.55106
McMenaminRW600.150.121−0.0202
Olusanya ST600.110.0700.2231
KiltieLW900.200.0200.0662
GreiveFW300.000.000−0.0302
MandronFW300.100.0200.1101
Boyd-MunceMF290.000.0610.1125
DunneDF140.000.0000.0011

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0100.0640
AtkinsonRB450.010.1510.0931
KentCB900.100.0300.16128
Rowles CB640.150.0100.0932
KingsleyLB900.110.1510.11156
BaningimeDM650.000.0310.0143
NieuwenhofDM900.000.0300.0251
DevlinRW760.310.030−0.0303
BoyceAM900.320.0700.0411
VargasLW900.000.031−0.0312
ShanklandST900.170.2210.2130
SibbickDF450.000.0900.1272
OffiahDF260.000.0100.0332
ForrestMF250.020.2420.0330
GrantMF140.000.1320.0311

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Gogic and O'Hara: 3 passesGogic and McMenamin: 3 passesTaylor and Tanser: 3 passesFraser and Strain: 3 passesStrain and O'Hara: 3 passesTanser and Kiltie: 3 passesGogic and Fraser: 4 passesStrain and Baccus: 4 passesTanser and McMenamin: 4 passesBaccus and McMenamin: 4 passesOlusanya and Kiltie: 4 passesGogic and Tanser: 5 passesStrain and Olusanya: 5 passesBaccus and O'Hara: 5 passesHemming and Tanser: 6 passesTanser and O'Hara: 6 passesStrain and McMenamin: 7 passesHemming: 8 completed passesGogic: 12 completed passesTaylor: 8 completed passesFraser: 10 completed passesStrain: 13 completed passesTanser: 13 completed passesBaccus: 12 completed passesO'Hara: 13 completed passesMcMenamin: 10 completed passesOlusanya: 6 completed passesKiltie: 3 completed passes113522233176102011HemmingGogicTaylorFraserStrainTanserBaccusO'HaraMcMenaminOlusanyaKiltieStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Clark and Kent: 3 passesKent and Nieuwenhof: 3 passesNieuwenhof and Boyce: 3 passesDevlin and Boyce: 3 passesBoyce and Shankland: 3 passesClark and Rowles: 4 passesAtkinson and Boyce: 4 passesAtkinson and Shankland: 4 passesKingsley and Boyce: 4 passesKent and Devlin: 5 passesBaningime and Vargas: 5 passesBaningime and Devlin: 6 passesBaningime and Boyce: 7 passesAtkinson and Devlin: 8 passesRowles and Nieuwenhof: 9 passesNieuwenhof and Baningime: 9 passesAtkinson and Kent: 10 passesAtkinson and Baningime: 13 passesRowles and Baningime: 13 passesKingsley and Vargas: 13 passesKent and Baningime: 16 passesRowles and Kent: 17 passesKingsley and Nieuwenhof: 19 passesRowles and Kingsley: 22 passesClark: 9 completed passesAtkinson: 21 completed passesRowles: 34 completed passesKent: 30 completed passesKingsley: 36 completed passesNieuwenhof: 24 completed passesBaningime: 38 completed passesDevlin: 15 completed passesBoyce: 11 completed passesVargas: 8 completed passesShankland: 7 completed passes28131523861410779ClarkAtkinsonRowlesKentKingsleyNieuwenhofBaningimeDevlinBoyceVargasShanklandStarters until 45+3' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
HemmingTanser8
GogicTanser5
StrainOlusanya4
StrainMcMenamin4
O'HaraTanser4

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesKingsley19
KingsleyNieuwenhof17
KentSibbick16
NieuwenhofKingsley14
KentRowles14

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

3−2.819+5.65−3.24−1.010+1.25−4.66−0.45−4.84−2.05−2.65+1.880.08+1.64−0.22−1.03+0.67+3.84−0.21−0.61−1.20−0.41−0.83+0.610.00−0.21+0.40−0.26+5.24−6.24−5.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Hearts

8+0.64−4.290.05−1.08−2.64−1.41−3.25−1.07+0.69+5.04−0.22−3.08+1.66+1.65+0.22−1.01−3.46−0.22+0.61−0.83+1.81−0.61−0.80−1.01−0.20−1.02+1.610.00−5.81−6.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.050.010.010.040.010.020.010.040.010.010.030.060.10−0.01−0.010.170.070.160.100.050.41LessMore

Hearts

0.040.010.020.030.020.030.010.030.030.050.050.060.020.090.040.020.040.02−0.02−0.020.030.32LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Mirren1.09 → 1.10Hearts1.30 → 1.28Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.42 → 1.39Hearts1.30 → 1.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six55%65%+10
11th5%3%−2
Bottom3%2%−1
Hearts
Top six66%57%−9
11th3%4%+1
Bottom1%2%+1

From the forecast before the match (23 September 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHearts
Expected goals1.321.26
Win37%35%
Expected Points1.401.32
Clean sheet28%27%

St. Mirren 37%Draw 28%Hearts 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 September 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHearts win
St. Mirren
Top six55%65%53%45%
11th5%3%6%6%
Bottom3%2%3%4%
Hearts
Top six66%57%66%78%
11th3%4%3%1%
Bottom1%2%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. W1–016 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.55–1.18
  2. D1–12 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.67–1.45
  3. D2–227 AugAberdeen (H)xG 1.97–0.87
  4. W2–112 AugDundee FC (H)xG 1.28–2.31
  5. W3–26 AugHibernian (A)xG 1.55–1.41
  6. L0–327 MayRangers (H)xG 0.55–1.81

Hearts

  1. W2–016 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.18–0.53
  2. L0–13 SepMotherwell (H)xG 1.51–1.14
  3. L0–127 AugDundee FC (A)xG 0.86–1.52
  4. D0–013 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 0.39–0.73
  5. W2–05 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.77–0.94
  6. D1–127 MayHibernian (H)xG 0.11–1.50

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHearts
Position2nd5th
Played55
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠02–⁠1–⁠2
Points11 (2.20 per game)7 (1.40 per game)
Expected Points per game1.171.47
Goals9–⁠64–⁠2
xG per game1.20–⁠1.441.14–⁠0.97
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.62–⁠1.591.33, 1.03–⁠0.80
Away: points, xG per game2.33, 0.92–⁠1.351.50, 1.31–⁠1.23
ManagerStephen Robinson (0)Steven Naismith (1)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Mirren1.09, 8thHearts1.30, 3rdDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.42, 8thHearts1.30, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepSt. Mirren attack: 1.09Hearts attack: 1.301.301.09HeartsSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepSt. Mirren defence: 1.42Hearts defence: 1.301.421.30

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−33%−5%+6%−26%
Counter-attacks+51%−4%+36%−65%
Set pieces−15%+5%−27%+46%
Penalties+124%+133%−76%−85%
Headers+32%−35%−26%+4%
Left side−34%−7%−16%−55%
Centre−20%+12%+18%−2%
Right side−17%−26%−23%+19%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−34%+19%Centre−20%−2%Right side−17%−55%Open play−33%−26%Counter-attacks+51%−65%Set pieces−15%+46%Headers+32%+4%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−16%−26%Centre+18%+12%Right side−23%−7%Open play+6%−5%Counter-attacks+36%−4%Set pieces−27%+5%Headers−26%−35%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHearts

1.20xG1.14
1.44xG against0.97
46%Possession64%
10.6Shots12.8
11.6Shots against10.8
3.8Shots on target4.0
2.8Big chances1.6
19.0Touches in the opposition box30.4
319Passes490
61%Pass accuracy77%
4.0Corners9.6
44%Field tilt63%
30.0Final-third entries45.6
9.6Box entries16.6
16.4Passes per defensive action9.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.090.84
Ahead400.852.27
Behind46.550.00

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level540.731.24
Ahead181.730.56
Behind181.810.58

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.270.042–0
16–300.170.091–0
31–450.170.261–1
46–600.290.092–0
61–750.110.360–2
76–900.200.603–3

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.191–0
16–300.050.210–1
31–450.060.080–0
46–600.240.290–0
61–750.410.042–1
76–900.330.161–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 5Fraser 5Gogic 5Taylor 5Strain 5Baccus 4O'Hara 2Boyd-Munce 4Tanser 5McMenamin 5Olusanya 3Mandron 2Kiltie 53-4-3 in 2 of 5 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTClark 5Atkinson 4Offiah 1Kent 5Rowles 5Kingsley 4Cochrane 1Devlin 4Lowry 1Haring 4Denholm 1Oda 5Boyce 2Shankland 1Sibbick 1Vargas 2Lowry 2Forrest 1Shankland 4Tagawa 14-2-3-1 in 4 of 5 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
13 May 2023St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.06–2.13
8 April 2023Hearts0–2St. MirrenxG 0.94–1.25
13 January 2023Hearts1–0St. MirrenxG 1.68–1.41
7 January 2023St. Mirren1–1HeartsxG 0.66–0.99
26 February 2022St. Mirren0–2HeartsxG 0.11–3.13
27 November 2021Hearts2–0St. MirrenxG 2.16–1.16

7 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Hearts won 4, and 2 were drawn. Goals 6–10 and xG 0.91–1.64 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Greive121,191600.350.04
O'Hara363,0811130.250.07
Strain403,293460.080.16
Kiltie232,314320.120.11

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland383,4882540.640.12
Boyce6512220.300.21
Grant101,221220.220.14
Oda12831300.220.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.