Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 3–0 St. Johnstone

Saturday 4 March 2023, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 28 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 18,596

Hearts Ginnelly 21', 63', Grant 73'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Goals30
xG1.631.19
Expected Points1.740.96

Hearts 48%Draw 30%St. Johnstone 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 3–0, 3%.

St. Johnstone goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+2%2%1%12%10%3%9%9%3%3%5%3%1%1%18%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTKiomourtzoglou on for Snodgrass, 70'Halliday on for Cochrane, 71'Devlin on for McKay, 78'Kuol on for Ginnelly, 79'Forrest on for Smith, 87'Rudden on for McLennan, 71'Bair on for May, Wotherspoon on for Hallberg, and Murphy on for Carey, 75'Gallacher on for Montgomery, 87'Ginnelly 21'Ginnelly 63'Grant 73'Hearts 1.63St. Johnstone 1.1900.511.520153045607590HTKiomourtzoglou on for Snodgrass, 70'Halliday on for Cochrane, 71'Devlin on for McKay, 78'Kuol on for Ginnelly, 79'Forrest on for Smith, 87'Rudden on for McLennan, 71'Bair on for May, Wotherspoon on for Hallberg, and Murphy on for Carey, 75'Gallacher on for Montgomery, 87'Ginnelly 21'Ginnelly 63'Grant 73'1.631.19HeartsSt. Johnstone

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsSt. Johnstone

1.63 +0.03xG1.19 +0.29
2.18 +0.83xG on target1.10 +0.19
12 −0.1Shots15 +5.3
7 +2.7Shots on target5 +2.0
1 −1.3Big chances3 +1.6
23 +1Touches in the opposition box22 +7
58% +3Possession42% +1
488 +45Passes345 +20
80% +4Pass accuracy69% +3
50% +1Field tilt50% +14
34 −1Final-third entries37 +10
14 +2.6Box entries11 +3.4
12.7 −2Passes per defensive action15.7 −3
8 +2.9Corners7 +3.7
13 −2Tackles14 −3
9 +0.8Interceptions6 −5.5
13 −6Clearances25 0
4 +0.5Saves4 +1.3
7 −3Fouls8 −3
1 −0.3Offsides3 +1.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Ginnelly 77', 0.19 xGSmith 15', 0.10 xGHill 36', 0.09 xGShankland 17', 0.08 xGGrant 90+3', 0.07 xGMcKay 59', 0.05 xGShankland 25', 0.04 xGCochrane 59', 0.04 xGMcKay 64', 0.03 xGGinnelly 63', 0.87 xG, goalGinnelly 21', 0.05 xG, goalGrant 73', 0.03 xG, goal53%0.87 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.87 xG, 1 goal21%0.35 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.35 xG, 0 goals13%0.22 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals10%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 1 goal2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 1 goal

St. Johnstone

Wright 31', 0.27 xGRudden 90+1', 0.18 xGRudden 89', 0.10 xGMcLennan 44', 0.09 xGWright 90+1', 0.07 xGMacPherson 90+1', 0.07 xGHallberg 49', 0.06 xGGordon 42', 0.05 xGCarey 43', 0.05 xGGordon 90+1', 0.05 xGMay 9', 0.04 xGCarey 30', 0.04 xGMacPherson 43', 0.04 xGHallberg 58', 0.04 xGMurphy 90+1', 0.01 xG43%0.51 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.51 xG, 0 goals19%0.23 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals14%0.17 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals24%0.29 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsSt. Johnstone

1.48 9 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.70 8 shots, 0 goals
0.16 3 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.48 7 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
21 min (23%) · Hearts 0.23, St. Johnstone 0.04 xG
Hearts ahead
72 min (77%) · Hearts 1.40, St. Johnstone 1.15 xG

Line-ups

287215327771993018ClarkHillRowlesKingsleySmithGrantSnodgrassCochraneShanklandGinnellyMcKayGoalGoalGoal87'70'71'79'78'Hearts 3-4-3Robbie Neilson11456219182223726MatthewsWrightMitchellGordonBrownMontgomeryMacPhersonHallbergCareyMayMcLennanYellow card87'75'75'75'71'St. Johnstone 5-3-2Callum Davidson

Hearts substitutes

  • 70' Kiomourtzoglou for Snodgrass
  • 71' Halliday for Cochrane
  • 78' Devlin for McKay
  • 79' Kuol for Ginnelly
  • 87' Forrest for Smith

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 71' Rudden for McLennan
  • 75' Wotherspoon for Hallberg
  • 75' Murphy for Carey
  • 75' Bair for May
  • 87' Gallacher for Montgomery

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0100
HillCB900.090.0800.1789
RowlesCB900.000.0000.04310
KingsleyCB900.000.0100.0795
SmithRWB870.100.0300.0422
GrantCM90110.100.192−0.0144
SnodgrassCM700.000.1010.0310
CochraneLWB710.040.0400.0763
ShanklandRW900.120.2930.0853
GinnellyST7921.110.2010.1330
McKayLW7820.080.7020.29100
KiomourtzoglouMF200.000.0000.0111
HallidayMF190.000.0100.0111
DevlinMF120.000.0000.0000
KuolFW110.000.0000.0010
ForrestMF30.000.0000.0100

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MatthewsGK900.000.0000.0460
WrightRWB900.350.2520.2251
MitchellCB900.000.0100.0447
GordonCB900.110.0000.00011
BrownCB900.000.0000.0308
MontgomeryLWB870.000.010−0.0234
MacPhersonCM900.120.1410.17104
Hallberg CM750.100.0310.0133
CareyCM750.100.1520.0751
MayST750.040.6140.1932
McLennanST710.090.020−0.0301
RuddenFW190.280.0310.0412
WotherspoonMF150.000.0010.0321
MurphyFW150.010.1310.1810
BairFW150.000.000−0.0102
GallacherDF30.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Rowles and Snodgrass: 6 passesKingsley and Snodgrass: 6 passesShankland and Ginnelly: 6 passesHill and Shankland: 7 passesSmith and Ginnelly: 7 passesGrant and Snodgrass: 7 passesSnodgrass and Shankland: 7 passesRowles and McKay: 8 passesClark and Rowles: 9 passesHill and Grant: 9 passesHill and Snodgrass: 9 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 9 passesSmith and Grant: 9 passesGrant and Shankland: 11 passesSnodgrass and McKay: 11 passesClark and Hill: 12 passesKingsley and McKay: 12 passesRowles and Kingsley: 13 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 13 passesCochrane and McKay: 14 passesSmith and Shankland: 17 passesHill and Smith: 18 passesRowles and Hill: 23 passesClark: 22 completed passesRowles: 40 completed passesHill: 37 completed passesKingsley: 26 completed passesSmith: 32 completed passesCochrane: 29 completed passesGrant: 25 completed passesSnodgrass: 34 completed passesShankland: 23 completed passesGinnelly: 12 completed passesMcKay: 29 completed passes281572321977793018ClarkRowlesHillKingsleySmithCochraneGrantSnodgrassShanklandGinnellyMcKayStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

St. Johnstone

Matthews and Brown: 3 passesWright and Mitchell: 3 passesWright and Hallberg: 3 passesWright and May: 3 passesMitchell and MacPherson: 3 passesGordon and MacPherson: 3 passesMatthews and Mitchell: 4 passesMatthews and McLennan: 4 passesBrown and Montgomery: 4 passesBrown and Hallberg: 4 passesMatthews and Gordon: 5 passesMontgomery and May: 5 passesMitchell and Carey: 6 passesCarey and McLennan: 6 passesMacPherson and May: 6 passesCarey and May: 7 passesWright and MacPherson: 8 passesHallberg and MacPherson: 8 passesMacPherson and McLennan: 8 passesWright and Carey: 9 passesWright and McLennan: 10 passesCarey and Hallberg: 10 passesMontgomery and MacPherson: 11 passesCarey and MacPherson: 11 passesMontgomery and Hallberg: 13 passesHallberg and May: 13 passesMatthews: 11 completed passesWright: 19 completed passesMitchell: 13 completed passesBrown: 9 completed passesGordon: 9 completed passesMontgomery: 18 completed passesCarey: 26 completed passesHallberg: 28 completed passesMacPherson: 33 completed passesMcLennan: 11 completed passesMay: 16 completed passes11452619232218267MatthewsWrightMitchellBrownGordonMontgomeryCareyHallbergMacPhersonMcLennanMayStarters until 71' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesHill21
HillSmith14
SmithShankland13
HillRowles11
ClarkHill10

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
HallbergMontgomery8
WrightMacPherson7
HallbergMay7
MontgomeryMacPherson7
MacPhersonMontgomery7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

1−3.75−1.78−5.17+0.24−0.15−2.57+0.24−1.94−4.73−4.34−1.41−4.06+2.97+2.312+6.73−0.85+1.95+2.42−1.02−1.91−2.04+2.11+0.25+3.90−2.11+0.50−0.41+0.51+0.70−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

St. Johnstone

8+1.46−2.612+3.66+0.410+1.46−1.94−2.19−0.36−2.35−1.16+1.32−1.211+5.95−1.56+2.32−1.62−0.42−0.711+7.11−1.53+1.40−0.510.02−0.31+0.30−0.21+0.70−0.31+0.47−7.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.020.020.030.020.010.070.060.030.010.060.030.010.050.010.040.040.040.060.31LessMore

St. Johnstone

0.040.010.010.010.020.020.030.030.050.020.010.070.020.04−0.03−0.01−0.010.140.04−0.040.200.32LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackHearts1.34 → 1.36St. Johnstone0.94 → 0.94Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.23 → 1.22St. Johnstone1.36 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six>99%>99%0
St. Johnstone
Top six13%8%−5
11th2%2%0
Bottom<1%1%+1
Aberdeen
Top six52%54%+2
St. Mirren
Top six68%70%+2

From the forecast before the match (4 March 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Expected goals1.800.84
Win59%17%
Expected Points2.020.74
Clean sheet43%17%

Hearts 59%Draw 24%St. Johnstone 17%

Most likely score 1–0, 12%. Both sides score 48%.

St. Johnstone goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%5%3%5%1%4%1%7%6%2%3%3%1%1%12%11%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 March 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawSt. Johnstone win
Hearts
Top six>99%>99%>99%99%
St. Johnstone
Top six13%8%16%28%
11th2%2%2%<1%
Bottom<1%1%<1%<1%
Aberdeen
Top six52%54%49%48%
St. Mirren
Top six68%70%67%63%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L0–219 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.94–1.33
  2. W3–14 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.01–1.22
  3. L0–31 FebRangers (H)xG 0.86–3.07
  4. D0–029 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.63–0.34
  5. W5–018 JanAberdeen (H)xG 3.54–1.02
  6. W1–013 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.68–1.41

St. Johnstone

  1. D1–125 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.39–1.59
  2. W2–118 FebDundee United (A)xG 0.95–1.17
  3. L1–45 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.26–2.02
  4. W2–01 FebMotherwell (A)xG 1.00–0.31
  5. L0–228 JanRangers (A)xG 0.23–3.29
  6. L2–414 JanLivingston (H)xG 1.86–1.46

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Position3rd8th
Played2627
Won, drawn, lost12–⁠6–⁠89–⁠4–⁠14
Points42 (1.62 per game)31 (1.15 per game)
Expected Points per game1.381.10
Goals45–⁠3732–⁠44
xG per game1.60–⁠1.600.90–⁠1.32
Home: points, xG per game2.15, 2.03–⁠1.640.92, 0.94–⁠1.18
Away: points, xG per game1.08, 1.17–⁠1.571.36, 0.86–⁠1.45
ManagerRobbie Neilson (64)Callum Davidson (103)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackHearts1.34, 3rdSt. Johnstone0.94, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.23, 4thSt. Johnstone1.36, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebHearts attack: 1.34St. Johnstone attack: 0.941.340.94St. JohnstoneHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebHearts defence: 1.23St. Johnstone defence: 1.361.361.23

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Johnstone
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+18%+33%−24%+18%
Counter-attacks+47%−53%−76%−75%
Set pieces+3%+21%−47%−10%
Penalties+87%+4%−20%−40%
Headers−12%+34%−49%+5%
Left side−7%+22%−39%+12%
Centre+22%+31%−27%−2%
Right side+25%+23%−32%+18%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−7%+18%Centre+22%−2%Right side+25%+12%Open play+18%+18%Counter-attacks+47%−75%Set pieces+3%−10%Headers−12%+5%

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdHearts concededLeft side−39%+23%Centre−27%+31%Right side−32%+22%Open play−24%+33%Counter-attacks−76%−53%Set pieces−47%+21%Headers−49%+34%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Johnstone

1.60xG0.90
1.60xG against1.32
55%Possession41%
12.1Shots9.7
14.1Shots against14.6
4.3Shots on target3.0
2.3Big chances1.4
21.6Touches in the opposition box14.9
443Passes325
76%Pass accuracy66%
5.1Corners3.3
49%Field tilt37%
34.7Final-third entries27.5
11.4Box entries7.6
14.6Passes per defensive action18.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.981.36
Ahead301.501.91
Behind281.261.55

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.821.25
Ahead210.690.92
Behind301.141.68

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.260.185–8
16–300.200.148–3
31–450.330.318–2
46–600.220.306–9
61–750.190.296–6
76–900.390.3812–9

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.264–7
16–300.140.144–4
31–450.140.274–11
46–600.160.173–4
61–750.170.217–4
76–900.220.2710–14

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 16Clark 9Stewart 1Smith 14Sibbick 5Atkinson 3Sibbick 11Neilson 4Halkett 3Rowles 15Kingsley 10Cochrane 9Cochrane 10Halliday 8Snodgrass 5Devlin 15Halliday 6Kiomourtzoglou 5Snodgrass 12Grant 2Smith 1Ginnelly 9Hill 5Forrest 4Shankland 5Smith 3Boyce 3McKay 17Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 16Ginnelly 5Humphrys 34-2-3-1 in 7 of 26 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-2-1 (6), 3-4-3 (6), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

St. Johnstone

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMatthews 25Parish 2Wright 22Brown 3Carey 2Mitchell 22McGowan 12Brown 3Gordon 18Wright 1Considine 25Montgo… 12MontgomeryBrown 5Carey 3Carey 12Montgomery 4Brown 4Hallberg 21McGowan 9Phillips 10MacPherson 8Murphy 3May 19Bair 5Clark 18Murphy 8McLennan 45-3-2 in 8 of 27 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (8), 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-4-2-1 (6), 5-4-1 (2), 3-1-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 December 2022St. Johnstone2–3HeartsxG 2.50–2.33
28 August 2022Hearts3–2St. JohnstonexG 2.74–0.77
19 February 2022St. Johnstone2–1HeartsxG 0.69–1.56
18 January 2022Hearts2–0St. JohnstonexG 1.71–1.14
27 October 2021St. Johnstone1–1HeartsxG 1.22–0.94

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, St. Johnstone won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 10–7 and xG 1.86–1.26 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland222,0621740.790.09
Grant5652110.330.20
Humphrys7661300.440.03
Ginnelly161,349520.190.19

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
May191,706650.240.10
Clark191,486420.250.05
Carey171,403310.230.06
McLennan4637110.160.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.