Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

St. Johnstone 1–2 Hearts

Saturday 2 November 2024, 15:00 · McDiarmid Park · Round 11 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 5,917

St. Johnstone Clark 68' (pen)

Hearts Clark 23' (og), Vargas 76'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. JohnstoneHearts
Goals12
xG1.391.44
Non-penalty xG0.601.44
Expected Points1.301.36

St. Johnstone 32%Draw 34%Hearts 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 21%. Final score 1–2, 14%.

Hearts goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+2%4%3%1%8%14%5%1%5%11%10%3%1%3%2%1%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTRae on for Sinclair, 46'Kirk on for Sidibeh and Smith on for Clark, 80'Vargas on for Dhanda and Devlin on for Boateng, 57'Grant on for Shankland, 85'Clark 68' (pen)Clark 23' (og)Vargas 76'Hearts 1.44St. Johnstone 1.3900.511.50153045607590HTRae on for Sinclair, 46'Kirk on for Sidibeh and Smith on for Clark, 80'Vargas on for Dhanda and Devlin on for Boateng, 57'Grant on for Shankland, 85'Clark 68' (pen)Clark 23' (og)Vargas 76'1.441.39St. JohnstoneHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. JohnstoneHearts

1.39 +0.26xG1.44 +0.25
0.60Non-penalty xG1.44
1.61 +0.72xG on target0.81 −0.35
13 +2Shots13 0
5 +1.8Shots on target2 −1.5
1 −0.5Big chances2 0.0
26 +9Touches in the opposition box22 −6
61% +9Possession39% −18
539 +128Passes335 −133
85% +10Pass accuracy75% −2
52% +4Field tilt48% −11
45 +8Final-third entries32 −12
11 +2.2Box entries13 +0.2
9.7 −4Passes per defensive action20.5 +9
6 +1.3Corners9 +2.5
14 0Tackles15 −5
8 −0.8Interceptions13 +4.6
30 +2Clearances23 +4
1 −1.7Saves4 +1.8
13 +2Fouls12 0
2 +0.4Offsides1 −0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Johnstone

Holt 29', 0.12 xGClark 19', 0.09 xGSidibeh 37', 0.08 xGCarey 21', 0.06 xGSidibeh 55', 0.06 xGSprangler 20', 0.05 xGHolt 48', 0.04 xGWright 51', 0.03 xGSidibeh 55', 0.03 xGCameron 59', 0.02 xGCarey 60', 0.02 xGSidibeh 26', 0.01 xG23%0.14 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals23%0.14 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals20%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals33%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Vargas 89', 0.28 xGShankland 16', 0.18 xGVargas 71', 0.09 xGForrest 32', 0.06 xGForrest 78', 0.05 xGVargas 71', 0.04 xGShankland 34', 0.03 xGPenrice 70', 0.03 xGPenrice 71', 0.03 xGSpittal 11', 0.02 xGForrest 23', 0.02 xGPenrice 12', 0.01 xGVargas 76', 0.57 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals90%1.28 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.28 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals10%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. JohnstoneHearts

0.40 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.10 10 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.28 1 shot, 0 goals
0.20 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.05 2 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
31 min (34%) · St. Johnstone 0.20, Hearts 1.00 xG
Hearts ahead
60 min (66%) · St. Johnstone 1.19, Hearts 0.43 xG

Line-ups

2014543011237102916SinclairWrightSandersCameronDouglasCareySpranglerHoltClarkKimpiokaSidibehYellow cardYellow cardGoalOwn goal46'80'80'St. Johnstone 4-3-1-2Simo Valakari15215296181716209GordonOyegokeKentRowlesPenriceBaningimeBoatengForrestSpittalDhandaShanklandYellow cardYellow cardYellow card57'57'85'Hearts 4-2-3-1Neil Critchley

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 46' Rae for Sinclair
  • 80' Smith for Clark
  • 80' Kirk for Sidibeh

Hearts substitutes

  • 57' Devlin for Boateng · yellow card 67'
  • 57' Vargas for Dhanda · goal 76'
  • 85' Grant for Shankland

Players

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SinclairGK460.000.0000.0112
WrightRB900.030.4720.36183
SandersCB900.000.0100.06315
CameronCB900.020.0100.0976
DouglasLB900.000.0710.0965
CareyCM900.080.1240.16117
Sprangler CM900.050.0200.00313
Holt CM900.160.0400.0783
ClarkAM8010.880.010−0.0121
KimpiokaST900.000.030−0.0221
SidibehST800.170.1600.0822
RaeGK440.000.0000.0110
SmithMF100.000.010−0.0121
KirkFW100.000.000−0.0200

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0111
Oyegoke RB900.000.0200.0994
KentCB900.000.0000.02211
Rowles CB900.000.1210.0117
PenriceLB900.080.0100.0656
BaningimeDM9010.000.1410.1027
BoatengDM570.000.1520.1112
ForrestRW900.140.0810.1595
SpittalAM900.020.3430.1173
DhandaLW570.000.0110.0131
Shankland ST850.220.0810.0313
Devlin MF330.000.000−0.0111
VargasMF3310.980.1210.1032
GrantMF50.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Johnstone

Sanders and Holt: 4 passesDouglas and Carey: 4 passesCarey and Clark: 4 passesCarey and Sidibeh: 4 passesHolt and Clark: 4 passesKimpioka and Sidibeh: 4 passesSanders and Douglas: 5 passesSanders and Sprangler: 5 passesSanders and Carey: 5 passesDouglas and Sprangler: 5 passesSinclair and Douglas: 6 passesWright and Sprangler: 8 passesWright and Carey: 8 passesCameron and Holt: 8 passesSprangler and Holt: 8 passesHolt and Kimpioka: 9 passesSinclair and Sanders: 10 passesSinclair and Cameron: 10 passesSanders and Cameron: 13 passesCameron and Douglas: 13 passesWright and Sanders: 16 passesDouglas and Holt: 30 passesSinclair: 18 completed passesWright: 22 completed passesSanders: 30 completed passesCameron: 26 completed passesDouglas: 37 completed passesSprangler: 20 completed passesCarey: 19 completed passesHolt: 32 completed passesClark: 10 completed passesKimpioka: 8 completed passesSidibeh: 4 completed passes2014543023117102916SinclairWrightSandersCameronDouglasSpranglerCareyHoltClarkKimpiokaSidibehStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hearts

Gordon and Kent: 3 passesRowles and Kent: 3 passesRowles and Boateng: 3 passesGordon and Rowles: 4 passesOyegoke and Boateng: 4 passesOyegoke and Dhanda: 4 passesRowles and Dhanda: 4 passesPenrice and Spittal: 4 passesBoateng and Dhanda: 4 passesBoateng and Shankland: 4 passesOyegoke and Spittal: 5 passesBoateng and Spittal: 5 passesForrest and Spittal: 5 passesPenrice and Boateng: 6 passesBaningime and Boateng: 7 passesSpittal and Dhanda: 7 passesOyegoke and Kent: 8 passesOyegoke and Baningime: 9 passesRowles and Penrice: 9 passesPenrice and Dhanda: 13 passesOyegoke and Forrest: 14 passesGordon: 10 completed passesOyegoke: 23 completed passesRowles: 15 completed passesKent: 10 completed passesPenrice: 19 completed passesBaningime: 17 completed passesBoateng: 20 completed passesForrest: 10 completed passesSpittal: 15 completed passesDhanda: 17 completed passesShankland: 5 completed passes15152296181716209GordonOyegokeRowlesKentPenriceBaningimeBoatengForrestSpittalDhandaShanklandStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
DouglasHolt25
SandersWright20
HoltDouglas20
CameronSanders20
CameronDouglas19

Hearts

FromToPasses
OyegokeForrest14
RowlesPenrice10
PenriceDhanda9
KentOyegoke9
BaningimeOyegoke6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Johnstone

5+0.45−0.820+3.05−1.06−0.33−3.55−1.57+0.56+0.37−1.15−0.87+2.81−1.840.02−0.94+1.520.05+3.16+2.42−0.91−0.81+0.14+2.72+0.41+0.61+0.71+0.60−0.50−1.02−4.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Hearts

4−0.34−2.011−1.64−2.73−2.77+0.210+4.37+1.16−0.47+1.04−1.73−0.62−0.77+1.110+3.52−3.04+0.82−1.27+4.24+0.30−2.51−0.90−0.81+0.34+2.50−0.70−0.51+0.10−0.31−0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Johnstone

0.010.010.020.010.020.010.030.080.050.020.050.040.100.040.070.110.05−0.02−0.010.03−0.01−0.020.17LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.060.010.030.060.070.010.040.020.050.030.070.010.04−0.060.060.120.11LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackSt. Johnstone1.04 → 1.04Hearts1.32 → 1.33Defence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.53 → 1.53Hearts1.31 → 1.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Johnstone
Top six12%7%−5
11th18%21%+3
Bottom20%27%+7
Hearts
Top six27%36%+9
11th9%6%−3
Bottom7%4%−3

From the forecast before the match (2 November 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. JohnstoneHearts
Expected goals1.221.34
Win33%39%
Expected Points1.271.45
Clean sheet26%30%

St. Johnstone 33%Draw 28%Hearts 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%1%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 November 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Johnstone winDrawHearts win
St. Johnstone
Top six12%18%11%7%
11th18%15%18%21%
Bottom20%13%21%27%
Hearts
Top six27%18%24%36%
11th9%12%10%6%
Bottom7%11%6%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. L1–330 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.73–0.93
  2. W2–126 OctDundee FC (A)xG 2.17–1.43
  3. W3–019 OctRoss County (H)xG 3.16–0.26
  4. L0–26 OctRangers (A)xG 0.36–1.57
  5. L0–628 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.32–3.38
  6. D3–321 SepRoss County (A)xG 0.55–1.28

Hearts

  1. L1–230 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 1.11–1.73
  2. D1–127 OctHibernian (A)xG 1.17–1.97
  3. W4–019 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.73–0.24
  4. L2–36 OctAberdeen (A)xG 2.02–0.69
  5. D1–128 SepRoss County (H)xG 1.94–0.84
  6. L1–221 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.39–1.17

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneHearts
Position9th12th
Played1111
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠1–⁠71–⁠3–⁠7
Points10 (0.91 per game)6 (0.55 per game)
Expected Points per game1.201.25
Goals14–⁠2312–⁠18
xG per game1.13–⁠1.391.19–⁠1.42
Home: points, xG per game0.75, 1.26–⁠1.581.00, 1.35–⁠0.96
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.06–⁠1.280.17, 1.06–⁠1.80
ManagerSimo Valakari (4)Neil Critchley (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackSt. Johnstone1.04, 11thHearts1.32, 4thDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.53, 10thHearts1.31, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctSt. Johnstone attack: 1.04Hearts attack: 1.321.321.04HeartsSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctSt. Johnstone defence: 1.53Hearts defence: 1.311.531.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−14%+18%−18%−15%
Counter-attacks−62%+7%−40%+12%
Set pieces−6%−3%+35%+35%
Penalties−34%−100%−100%+33%
Headers−30%+27%+3%+52%
Left side−16%+41%+25%+2%
Centre−7%+3%−18%+1%
Right side−33%−3%−2%+2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdHearts concededLeft side−16%+2%Centre−7%+1%Right side−33%+2%Open play−14%−15%Counter-attacks−62%+12%Set pieces−6%+35%Headers−30%+52%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side+25%−3%Centre−18%+3%Right side−2%+41%Open play−18%+18%Counter-attacks−40%+7%Set pieces+35%−3%Headers+3%+27%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneHearts

1.13xG1.19
1.39xG against1.42
52%Possession57%
10.7Shots13.2
14.0Shots against11.9
3.2Shots on target3.5
1.5Big chances2.0
16.6Touches in the opposition box27.9
410Passes468
74%Pass accuracy77%
4.7Corners6.5
48%Field tilt59%
37.0Final-third entries43.8
8.8Box entries12.8
14.2Passes per defensive action11.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.451.86
Ahead191.601.15
Behind380.631.12

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.931.85
Ahead81.440.71
Behind361.471.02

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.182–2
16–300.110.251–3
31–450.270.283–5
46–600.120.151–4
61–750.080.182–3
76–900.410.345–6

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.260.231–2
16–300.110.191–2
31–450.170.372–4
46–600.120.261–3
61–750.150.183–3
76–900.380.194–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTSinclair 8Rae 3Neilson 10Wright 4Essel 2Sanders 9McClelland 1Cameron 7Wright 7Clark 3Smith 1Holt 5MacPhers… 3MacPhersonNeilson 1Sprangler 7Raymond 2Clark 1Smith 9Essel 4Raymond 8Smith 1Cameron 1Sidibeh 6Clark 4Kirk 3Kimpioka 93-5-2 in 5 of 11 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (5), 4-3-1-2 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 9Clark 2Taylor 4Oyegoke 3Forrester 2Kent 8Halkett 3Rowles 9Kingsley 2Penrice 6Kingsley 2Spittal 1Devlin 5Baningime 3Penrice 1Boateng 7Grant 3Spittal 1Vargas 3Dhanda 3Kent 1Grant 3Shankland 2Vargas 2Spittal 5Vargas 2Forrest 2Shankland 9Vargas 24-2-3-1 in 4 of 11 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
7 February 2024St. Johnstone0–1HeartsxG 0.45–0.70
25 November 2023Hearts1–0St. JohnstonexG 1.44–0.85
5 August 2023St. Johnstone0–2HeartsxG 0.94–1.77
4 March 2023Hearts3–0St. JohnstonexG 1.63–1.19
28 December 2022St. Johnstone2–3HeartsxG 2.50–2.33
28 August 2022Hearts3–2St. JohnstonexG 2.74–0.77

9 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 1, Hearts won 7, and 1 was a draw. Goals 7–17 and xG 1.08–1.65 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kimpioka9783510.490.04
Sidibeh6557210.190.11
Clark8671300.260.01
Smith11906010.040.15

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland11956130.330.18
Spittal7629220.120.21
Dhanda5484010.090.22
Kent9810200.200.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.