Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hearts 2–1 St. Johnstone

Sunday 22 December 2024, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 18 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 18,676

Hearts Penrice 16', Spittal 58'

St. Johnstone Carey 53' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Goals21
xG0.751.28
Non-penalty xG0.750.49
Expected Points0.811.86

Hearts 16%Draw 33%St. Johnstone 51%

Most likely score 0–1, 23%. Final score 2–1, 7%.

St. Johnstone goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+6%12%2%5%10%2%2%7%4%1%23%23%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTForrest on for Drammeh, 60'Vargas on for Spittal, 80'Boyce on for Shankland, 90+4'Carey on for Raymond, 46'Smith on for Holt and Keltjens on for Essel, 83'Penrice 16'Spittal 58'Carey 53' (pen)St. Johnstone 1.28Hearts 0.7500.511.50153045607590HTForrest on for Drammeh, 60'Vargas on for Spittal, 80'Boyce on for Shankland, 90+4'Carey on for Raymond, 46'Smith on for Holt and Keltjens on for Essel, 83'Penrice 16'Spittal 58'Carey 53' (pen)1.280.75HeartsSt. Johnstone

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsSt. Johnstone

0.75 −0.43xG1.28 +0.20
0.75Non-penalty xG0.49
1.34 +0.33xG on target1.11 +0.11
11 −2Shots8 −2
6 +2.6Shots on target2 −1.2
1 −1.1Big chances1 −0.4
24 −2Touches in the opposition box17 +1
49% −6Possession51% −2
400 −64Passes428 −8
76% −3Pass accuracy84% +8
54% −4Field tilt46% 0
28 −18Final-third entries29 −9
16 +3.9Box entries7 −1.5
9.7 −3Passes per defensive action13.9 −1
8 +1.6Corners0 −4.1
32 +13Tackles20 +5
15 +5.8Interceptions12 +4.3
31 +10Clearances47 +18
1 −1.4Saves5 +2.3
11 0Fouls13 +1
1 −0.4Offsides2 +0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Vargas 89', 0.12 xGVargas 89', 0.08 xGShankland 25', 0.07 xGSpittal 45', 0.05 xGSpittal 76', 0.04 xGPenrice 45+1', 0.03 xGShankland 66', 0.03 xGForrest 89', 0.03 xGShankland 90+1', 0.02 xGPenrice 16', 0.25 xG, goalSpittal 58', 0.02 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals74%0.56 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.56 xG, 1 goal8%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals18%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Johnstone

Sidibeh 54', 0.14 xGKimpioka 88', 0.10 xGKirk 32', 0.08 xGCarey 64', 0.08 xGHolt 63', 0.05 xGSidibeh 17', 0.02 xGEssel 50', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals45%0.22 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals55%0.27 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsSt. Johnstone

0.61 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.14 3 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.22 2 shots, 0 goals
0.14 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.12 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
21 min (22%) · Hearts 0.28, St. Johnstone 0.14 xG
Hearts ahead
74 min (78%) · Hearts 0.47, St. Johnstone 1.13 xG

Line-ups

1355152937141816219GordonForresterOyegokeRowlesPenriceDrammehDevlinBoatengSpittalWilsonShanklandGoalYellow cardGoal60'80'90+4'Hearts 4-4-2Neil Critchley121552323714162729RaeEsselSandersMikulicRaymondSpranglerHoltWrightSidibehKirkKimpiokaYellow card83'46'83'St. Johnstone 4-1-3-2Simo Valakari

Hearts substitutes

  • 60' Forrest for Drammeh
  • 80' Vargas for Spittal · yellow card 90+4'
  • 90+4' Boyce for Shankland

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 46' Carey for Raymond · goal 53' (pen)
  • 83' Keltjens for Essel
  • 83' Smith for Holt

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0111
ForresterRB9010.000.1610.28714
OyegokeCB900.000.0000.0225
RowlesCB900.000.0000.01111
PenriceLB9010.280.1310.1984
DrammehRM600.000.0000.0112
Devlin CM900.000.010−0.01019
BoatengCM900.000.0220.0217
SpittalLM8010.110.0910.1270
WilsonST900.000.0100.0003
ShanklandST900.120.2410.1554
ForrestMF300.030.0000.0117
Vargas MF100.200.0300.0501
BoyceFW00.000.0000.0000

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RaeGK900.000.0000.0112
EsselRB830.020.0300.11133
SandersCB900.000.1610.04414
MikulicCB900.000.0100.05315
RaymondLB460.000.0000.0229
Sprangler DM900.000.0610.0938
HoltCM830.050.0100.0116
WrightAM900.000.0410.0648
SidibehCM900.160.0710.0554
KirkST900.080.0310.0842
KimpiokaST900.100.051−0.0231
CareyMF4410.870.121−0.0404
KeltjensMF70.000.0000.0005
SmithMF70.000.0000.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Oyegoke and Boateng: 4 passesPenrice and Devlin: 4 passesDevlin and Boateng: 5 passesDevlin and Spittal: 5 passesForrester and Drammeh: 6 passesForrester and Shankland: 6 passesRowles and Boateng: 6 passesDevlin and Shankland: 6 passesBoateng and Spittal: 6 passesSpittal and Wilson: 6 passesShankland and Wilson: 6 passesGordon and Oyegoke: 7 passesOyegoke and Devlin: 7 passesSpittal and Shankland: 7 passesPenrice and Shankland: 8 passesForrester and Devlin: 9 passesRowles and Devlin: 9 passesGordon and Rowles: 10 passesForrester and Boateng: 12 passesPenrice and Spittal: 16 passesRowles and Oyegoke: 17 passesRowles and Penrice: 19 passesForrester and Oyegoke: 23 passesGordon: 12 completed passesForrester: 31 completed passesRowles: 34 completed passesOyegoke: 32 completed passesPenrice: 26 completed passesDrammeh: 4 completed passesDevlin: 27 completed passesBoateng: 23 completed passesSpittal: 24 completed passesShankland: 18 completed passesWilson: 10 completed passes1351552937141816921GordonForresterRowlesOyegokePenriceDrammehDevlinBoatengSpittalShanklandWilsonStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Johnstone

Essel and Holt: 3 passesMikulic and Raymond: 3 passesMikulic and Holt: 3 passesMikulic and Kimpioka: 3 passesWright and Holt: 3 passesWright and Sidibeh: 3 passesSprangler and Kimpioka: 3 passesHolt and Sidibeh: 3 passesEssel and Wright: 4 passesEssel and Sprangler: 4 passesSanders and Wright: 4 passesRaymond and Wright: 4 passesMikulic and Sprangler: 5 passesRaymond and Sprangler: 5 passesSidibeh and Kirk: 6 passesEssel and Sidibeh: 7 passesEssel and Kirk: 7 passesRae and Mikulic: 8 passesEssel and Sanders: 11 passesMikulic and Sanders: 12 passesSanders and Holt: 13 passesRae and Sanders: 15 passesRae: 16 completed passesEssel: 17 completed passesMikulic: 21 completed passesSanders: 30 completed passesRaymond: 9 completed passesWright: 9 completed passesSprangler: 12 completed passesHolt: 16 completed passesKimpioka: 8 completed passesSidibeh: 9 completed passesKirk: 7 completed passes121525314237291627RaeEsselMikulicSandersRaymondWrightSpranglerHoltKimpiokaSidibehKirkStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
OyegokeForrester17
SpittalPenrice12
RowlesPenrice11
RowlesOyegoke11
ForresterOyegoke11

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
SandersEssel21
MikulicSanders20
MikulicWright15
HoltWright14
SandersMikulic14

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

5+1.03−2.79−3.98+1.38+3.29+2.310+3.52−3.88+0.99+1.73−2.73−1.24+1.52−3.98+1.06+1.44+0.80−2.93−0.58+4.12−0.55+3.23+1.98+6.83+0.80−0.60−0.51+0.32+1.82+0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

St. Johnstone

10+5.010+3.917−1.012+6.15−1.111+4.212+5.33−3.710+3.97−1.17+1.75+0.64+0.86+1.35−1.23+0.25+2.42+0.21−1.53−0.72−0.91−0.80−0.92+0.96+4.33+2.41+0.71+0.60−0.30−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.020.010.010.050.010.010.030.010.030.030.11−0.010.060.16−0.010.06−0.050.100.24LessMore

St. Johnstone

0.010.010.050.020.010.010.040.010.040.020.010.040.030.010.060.030.02−0.040.020.020.06−0.160.03−0.010.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.27 → 1.26St. Johnstone1.02 → 1.03Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.34 → 1.34St. Johnstone1.53 → 1.50

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six17%22%+5
11th12%9%−3
Bottom7%4%−3
St. Johnstone
Top six3%2%−1
11th27%29%+2
Bottom30%36%+6
Ross County
11th25%27%+2
Bottom45%43%−2
St. Mirren
Top six49%48%−1
11th4%4%0

From the forecast before the match (22 December 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Expected goals1.680.93
Win55%20%
Expected Points1.890.86
Clean sheet40%19%

Hearts 55%Draw 25%St. Johnstone 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

St. Johnstone goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%1%5%2%4%1%6%5%3%2%2%1%12%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 22 December 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawSt. Johnstone win
Hearts
Top six17%22%12%9%
11th12%9%14%17%
Bottom7%4%9%13%
St. Johnstone
Top six3%2%3%6%
11th27%29%27%24%
Bottom30%36%28%18%
Ross County
11th25%27%24%21%
Bottom45%43%45%50%
St. Mirren
Top six49%48%51%50%
11th4%4%4%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L0–115 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.15–1.57
  2. W2–07 DecDundee FC (H)xG 1.75–0.54
  3. D1–11 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.15–0.62
  4. L1–423 NovCeltic (H)xG 0.85–3.87
  5. L0–110 NovRangers (A)xG 0.59–2.17
  6. W2–12 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.44–1.39

St. Johnstone

  1. L2–314 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.79–2.08
  2. D1–17 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.35–0.70
  3. L0–11 DecRangers (H)xG 0.15–1.73
  4. W1–023 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 1.02–0.45
  5. L1–29 NovMotherwell (A)xG 1.18–1.44
  6. L1–22 NovHearts (H)xG 1.39–1.44

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Position12th11th
Played1717
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠4–⁠104–⁠2–⁠11
Points13 (0.76 per game)14 (0.82 per game)
Expected Points per game1.211.18
Goals18–⁠2620–⁠32
xG per game1.18–⁠1.521.08–⁠1.36
Home: points, xG per game1.12, 1.31–⁠1.230.75, 1.05–⁠1.50
Away: points, xG per game0.44, 1.06–⁠1.770.89, 1.11–⁠1.23
ManagerNeil Critchley (8)Simo Valakari (10)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.27, 5thSt. Johnstone1.02, 11thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.34, 3rdSt. Johnstone1.53, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHearts attack: 1.27St. Johnstone attack: 1.021.271.02St. JohnstoneHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHearts defence: 1.34St. Johnstone defence: 1.531.531.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Johnstone
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−14%−3%−28%+14%
Counter-attacks−31%−2%−75%−2%
Set pieces+7%+3%−14%−26%
Penalties−100%+84%+10%−63%
Headers−7%+23%−37%+5%
Left side+12%+12%−25%+11%
Centre−19%−10%−31%+4%
Right side−8%+2%−24%−17%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side+12%−17%Centre−19%+4%Right side−8%+11%Open play−14%+14%Counter-attacks−31%−2%Set pieces+7%−26%Headers−7%+5%

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdHearts concededLeft side−25%+2%Centre−31%−10%Right side−24%+12%Open play−28%−3%Counter-attacks−75%−2%Set pieces−14%+3%Headers−37%+23%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Johnstone

1.18xG1.08
1.52xG against1.36
55%Possession53%
12.9Shots10.0
11.6Shots against13.3
3.4Shots on target3.2
2.1Big chances1.4
25.8Touches in the opposition box16.0
464Passes436
79%Pass accuracy76%
6.4Corners4.1
58%Field tilt47%
46.0Final-third entries37.8
12.1Box entries8.5
13.1Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.091.83
Ahead131.321.01
Behind361.231.32

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.241.70
Ahead171.411.17
Behind360.761.11

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.221–3
16–300.130.223–3
31–450.160.313–5
46–600.100.301–5
61–750.180.174–4
76–900.400.306–6

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.172–3
16–300.130.232–5
31–450.200.213–6
46–600.150.164–5
61–750.140.183–4
76–900.340.416–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 15Clark 2Oyegoke 9Taylor 4Kingsley 2Kent 12Halkett 5Rowles 15Kingsley 2Penrice 11Kingsley 3Spittal 1Devlin 10Baningime 5Penrice 1Boateng 12Grant 3Spittal 1Forrest 5Vargas 3Dhanda 3Shankland 5Grant 3Vargas 2Spittal 9Forrest 3Vargas 2Shankland 11Vargas 4Drammeh 14-2-3-1 in 8 of 17 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (8), 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

St. Johnstone

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMAMSTSTSinclair 9Rae 8Wright 8Neilson 7Essel 2Sanders 15Neilson 5McClelland 1Cameron 10Mikulic 3Raymond 12Wright 2Douglas 2Holt 10Carey 5Wright 2Sprangler 12MacPherson 3Neilson 1Smith 13Essel 4Clark 7Wright 5Kirk 2Sidibeh 8Clark 7Kirk 5Kimpioka 144-3-1-2 in 7 of 17 starts

Formations: 4-3-1-2 (7), 3-5-2 (5), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 November 2024St. Johnstone1–2HeartsxG 1.39–1.44
7 February 2024St. Johnstone0–1HeartsxG 0.45–0.70
25 November 2023Hearts1–0St. JohnstonexG 1.44–0.85
5 August 2023St. Johnstone0–2HeartsxG 0.94–1.77
4 March 2023Hearts3–0St. JohnstonexG 1.63–1.19
28 December 2022St. Johnstone2–3HeartsxG 2.50–2.33

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 8, St. Johnstone won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 19–8 and xG 1.63–1.11 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland161,401330.330.15
Vargas12953210.260.12
Forrest8688100.160.12
Spittal131,107220.100.17

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kirk7685410.370.05
Kimpioka141,247610.340.04
Sidibeh9873210.240.09
Clark141,125510.310.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.