Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hearts 1–0 Motherwell

Thursday 2 January 2025, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 21 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Calum Scott · Attendance 18,715

Hearts Drammeh 7'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsMotherwell
Goals10
xG1.971.25
Expected Points1.890.84

Hearts 54%Draw 27%Motherwell 19%

Most likely score 2–1, 14%. Final score 1–0, 6%.

Motherwell goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+2%3%2%6%8%2%7%3%4%8%6%2%1%3%2%13%14%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTBaningime on for Boyce and Vargas on for Wilson, 77'Forrest on for Drammeh and Dhanda on for Grant, 89'Ebiye on for Sparrow, Nicholson on for Blaney, and Zdravkovski on for Paton, 46'Kaleta on for Halliday and Vale on for Maswanhise, 75'Drammeh 7'Hearts 1.97Motherwell 1.2501230153045607590HTBaningime on for Boyce and Vargas on for Wilson, 77'Forrest on for Drammeh and Dhanda on for Grant, 89'Ebiye on for Sparrow, Nicholson on for Blaney, and Zdravkovski on for Paton, 46'Kaleta on for Halliday and Vale on for Maswanhise, 75'Drammeh 7'1.971.25HeartsMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsMotherwell

1.97 +0.84xG1.25 +0.05
1.34 +0.30xG on target0.71 −0.60
18 +5Shots6 −4
6 +2.4Shots on target3 −0.6
3 +1.0Big chances3 +1.1
33 +8Touches in the opposition box14 −5
65% +10Possession35% −4
567 +114Passes302 +7
82% +4Pass accuracy67% +1
79% +22Field tilt21% −13
57 +13Final-third entries22 −3
18 +6.1Box entries6 −2.0
11.4 −1Passes per defensive action23.4 +5
12 +5.7Corners4 −0.9
17 −2Tackles17 0
10 +0.7Interceptions7 −1.4
31 +8Clearances36 +7
3 +0.5Saves5 +1.1
8 −4Fouls10 −1
0 −1.4Offsides1 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Boyce 56', 0.73 xGRowles 53', 0.24 xGGrant 86', 0.14 xGBoyce 36', 0.08 xGBoyce 1', 0.06 xGDrammeh 29', 0.06 xGGrant 80', 0.06 xGDhanda 90+1', 0.06 xGSpittal 5', 0.05 xGBoyce 58', 0.05 xGDevlin 34', 0.03 xGGrant 54', 0.03 xGSpittal 80', 0.03 xGGrant 28', 0.02 xGSpittal 39', 0.02 xGBoyce 74', 0.02 xGHalkett 44', 0.01 xGDrammeh 7', 0.27 xG, goal63%1.25 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.25 xG, 1 goal8%0.15 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals7%0.14 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals21%0.41 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.41 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Vale 90+4', 0.43 xGEbiye 90+3', 0.38 xGCasey 65', 0.33 xGHalliday 68', 0.07 xGO'Donnell 90+2', 0.02 xGCasey 90+4', 0.01 xG61%0.76 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.76 xG, 0 goals31%0.38 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.38 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals6%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsMotherwell

1.25 13 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.41 2 shots, 0 goals
0.20 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.53 3 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.84 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
7 min (7%) · Hearts 0.39, Motherwell 0.00 xG
Hearts ahead
87 min (93%) · Hearts 1.58, Motherwell 1.25 xG

Line-ups

1354152914737271621GordonForresterHalkettRowlesPenriceDevlinGrantDrammehBoyceSpittalWilsonYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal89'89'77'77'Hearts 4-2-3-1Neil Critchley1320154211122375552OxboroughBlaneyCaseyGordonO'DonnellHallidayPatonWilsonSparrowMaswanhiseWattYellow card46'75'46'46'75'Motherwell 3-4-2-1Stuart Kettlewell

Hearts substitutes

  • 77' Baningime for Boyce
  • 77' Vargas for Wilson
  • 89' Forrest for Drammeh
  • 89' Dhanda for Grant

Motherwell substitutes

  • 46' Nicholson for Blaney
  • 46' Zdravkovski for Paton
  • 46' Ebiye for Sparrow
  • 75' Kaleta for Halliday
  • 75' Vale for Maswanhise

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0120
Forrester RB900.000.0920.22125
HalkettCB900.010.0000.0425
RowlesCB900.240.0100.11410
PenriceLB900.000.7440.35147
Devlin DM900.030.0410.09511
Grant DM890.250.0310.0255
DrammehRW8910.330.0620.0537
BoyceAM770.940.1300.0231
SpittalLW900.100.1520.15122
WilsonST770.000.490−0.0102
BaningimeMF130.000.0000.0003
VargasMF130.000.0220.0210
ForrestMF10.000.0310.0420
DhandaMF10.060.000––0

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
OxboroughGK900.000.0100.0533
BlaneyCB460.000.0000.02110
Casey CB900.340.0910.2369
GordonCB900.000.0000.05411
O'DonnellRWB900.020.0000.01310
HallidayCM750.070.2610.0015
PatonCM460.000.010−0.0112
WilsonLWB900.000.0210.0022
SparrowAM460.000.0000.0004
MaswanhiseAM750.000.0000.0001
WattST900.000.0500.0223
NicholsonDF440.000.1210.2041
ZdravkovskiMF440.000.0300.0533
EbiyeFW440.380.0110.0001
KaletaMF150.000.0000.0010
ValeFW150.430.0100.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Gordon and Forrester: 6 passesDevlin and Drammeh: 6 passesGrant and Boyce: 6 passesGrant and Wilson: 6 passesForrester and Devlin: 8 passesHalkett and Spittal: 8 passesGrant and Drammeh: 8 passesGrant and Spittal: 8 passesGordon and Halkett: 9 passesGordon and Rowles: 11 passesRowles and Spittal: 12 passesDevlin and Spittal: 12 passesForrester and Drammeh: 14 passesRowles and Grant: 14 passesBoyce and Spittal: 14 passesPenrice and Grant: 15 passesDevlin and Grant: 18 passesForrester and Grant: 19 passesPenrice and Devlin: 19 passesHalkett and Grant: 20 passesRowles and Devlin: 23 passesHalkett and Devlin: 24 passesForrester and Halkett: 27 passesRowles and Penrice: 30 passesPenrice and Spittal: 31 passesRowles and Halkett: 37 passesGordon: 21 completed passesForrester: 42 completed passesRowles: 69 completed passesHalkett: 71 completed passesPenrice: 57 completed passesDevlin: 65 completed passesGrant: 61 completed passesDrammeh: 15 completed passesBoyce: 15 completed passesSpittal: 44 completed passesWilson: 14 completed passes1351542914737271621GordonForresterRowlesHalkettPenriceDevlinGrantDrammehBoyceSpittalWilsonStarters until 77' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Motherwell

Oxborough and Casey: 3 passesOxborough and Blaney: 3 passesOxborough and Halliday: 3 passesCasey and Paton: 3 passesBlaney and O'Donnell: 3 passesWilson and Paton: 3 passesPaton and Maswanhise: 3 passesPaton and Watt: 3 passesGordon and Halliday: 4 passesCasey and Halliday: 6 passesPaton and Halliday: 6 passesBlaney and Gordon: 7 passesBlaney and Wilson: 8 passesO'Donnell and Paton: 10 passesCasey and O'Donnell: 11 passesCasey and Gordon: 15 passesOxborough: 8 completed passesCasey: 23 completed passesBlaney: 14 completed passesGordon: 16 completed passesO'Donnell: 15 completed passesWilson: 6 completed passesPaton: 18 completed passesHalliday: 15 completed passesSparrow: 2 completed passesMaswanhise: 2 completed passesWatt: 3 completed passes1315204223121175552OxboroughCaseyBlaneyGordonO'DonnellWilsonPatonHallidaySparrowMaswanhiseWattStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
PenriceSpittal22
RowlesPenrice19
RowlesHalkett19
HalkettRowles18
HalkettForrester16

Motherwell

FromToPasses
GordonCasey13
CaseyGordon9
CaseyO'Donnell7
CaseyHalliday5
BlaneyGordon5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

2−3.210−2.95−1.62−3.06−1.24−2.57+1.59+2.29+1.64−1.72−2.17+4.47+1.75−2.04−0.82−1.14+1.48+4.57+3.04+1.51−0.94+2.92+0.43+0.73+2.50−0.50−0.70−0.31−0.10−4.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Motherwell

9+4.612+5.620+2.44−4.38+1.57+0.911+4.511+4.73−3.05−2.650.03−0.83−0.24−0.75−1.22−2.21−2.23+1.34+1.06+1.82−0.51−0.72+1.11−0.61−0.40−1.10−0.60−0.70−0.20−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.030.010.020.020.020.020.040.010.050.030.060.040.070.030.100.090.020.060.090.04−0.02−0.050.040.140.14LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.010.030.050.020.010.020.050.020.010.02−0.01−0.010.030.020.02−0.01−0.030.01−0.010.36LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.22 → 1.23Motherwell1.18 → 1.17Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.38 → 1.36Motherwell1.46 → 1.46

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six5%8%+3
11th19%14%−5
Bottom10%6%−4
Motherwell
Top six64%56%−8
11th2%2%0
Bottom<1%1%+1
St. Mirren
Top six43%45%+2
11th4%4%0
Ross County
11th28%30%+2
Bottom19%20%+1

From the forecast before the match (2 January 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsMotherwell
Expected goals1.561.11
Win47%27%
Expected Points1.671.06
Clean sheet33%21%

Hearts 47%Draw 26%Motherwell 27%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Motherwell goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%2%7%2%8%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 January 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawMotherwell win
Hearts
Top six5%8%3%2%
11th19%14%21%25%
Bottom10%6%11%15%
Motherwell
Top six64%56%65%78%
11th2%2%2%<1%
Bottom<1%1%<1%<1%
St. Mirren
Top six43%45%43%40%
11th4%4%3%3%
Ross County
11th28%30%28%26%
Bottom19%20%17%18%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. D2–229 DecRoss County (A)xG 1.06–1.40
  2. L1–226 DecHibernian (H)xG 0.70–1.93
  3. W2–122 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.75–1.28
  4. L0–115 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.15–1.57
  5. W2–07 DecDundee FC (H)xG 1.75–0.54
  6. D1–11 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.15–0.62

Motherwell

  1. D2–229 DecRangers (H)xG 0.52–2.23
  2. L0–426 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.23–3.55
  3. D1–120 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 0.76–1.03
  4. W4–314 DecDundee United (H)xG 2.09–2.02
  5. W1–07 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.74–0.55
  6. L1–44 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.97–0.60

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsMotherwell
Position11th6th
Played2019
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠5–⁠118–⁠3–⁠8
Points17 (0.85 per game)27 (1.42 per game)
Expected Points per game1.141.20
Goals23–⁠3125–⁠33
xG per game1.13–⁠1.521.20–⁠1.59
Home: points, xG per game1.20, 1.19–⁠1.311.50, 1.26–⁠1.52
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 1.06–⁠1.731.33, 1.13–⁠1.66
ManagerNeil Critchley (11)Stuart Kettlewell (71)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.22, 5thMotherwell1.18, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.38, 5thMotherwell1.46, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHearts attack: 1.22Motherwell attack: 1.181.221.18MotherwellHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHearts defence: 1.38Motherwell defence: 1.461.461.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−14%−4%−21%+14%
Counter-attacks−38%−5%−33%+3%
Set pieces−5%+4%+16%average
Penalties−100%+88%−67%+32%
Headers−4%+18%+38%+18%
Left side+9%+6%−35%+27%
Centre−27%−3%+2%−5%
Right side−5%−7%−17%+20%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdMotherwell concededLeft side+9%+20%Centre−27%−5%Right side−5%+27%Open play−14%+14%Counter-attacks−38%+3%Set pieces−5%averageHeaders−4%+18%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHearts concededLeft side−35%−7%Centre+2%−3%Right side−17%+6%Open play−21%−4%Counter-attacks−33%−5%Set pieces+16%+4%Headers+38%+18%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsMotherwell

1.13xG1.20
1.52xG against1.59
55%Possession39%
12.8Shots10.4
11.6Shots against14.9
3.6Shots on target3.6
2.0Big chances1.9
25.2Touches in the opposition box19.2
453Passes295
78%Pass accuracy67%
6.3Corners4.9
57%Field tilt33%
43.7Final-third entries25.4
11.9Box entries8.0
12.6Passes per defensive action18.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.101.76
Ahead191.091.19
Behind331.181.41

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.371.45
Ahead240.901.58
Behind231.181.84

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.202–4
16–300.120.244–3
31–450.140.284–5
46–600.120.303–6
61–750.160.164–4
76–900.370.336–9

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.262–4
16–300.320.218–4
31–450.130.365–4
46–600.170.352–9
61–750.170.172–7
76–900.290.246–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 18Clark 2Oyegoke 10Forrester 4Taylor 4Kent 12Halkett 6Oyegoke 2Rowles 18Kingsley 2Penrice 14Kingsley 3Grant 1Devlin 12Baningime 7Penrice 1Boateng 13Grant 4Spittal 1Drammeh 5Forrest 5Vargas 3Shankland 7Grant 3Baningime 2Spittal 12Forrest 3Vargas 2Shankland 11Wilson 4Vargas 44-2-3-1 in 10 of 20 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (10), 4-4-2 (4), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTOxborough 19Casey 17McGinn 6O'Donnell 2Gordon 15Balmer 9Blaney 6Seddon 2Kaleta 9O'Donnell 8Wilson 1Halliday 14Miller 6Paton 2Zdravkovski 7Wilson 5Seddon 2Wilson 10Seddon 3Miller 2Miller 11Zdravkovski 3Halliday 2Maswanhise 7Stamatelopoulos 3Paton 2Stamatelopoulos 10Robinson 5Watt 23-4-2-1 in 5 of 19 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (5), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-1-2 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 3-5-1-1 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
25 August 2024Motherwell3–1HeartsxG 2.54–0.62
17 February 2024Hearts2–0MotherwellxG 1.71–0.46
11 November 2023Motherwell1–2HeartsxG 1.10–2.08
3 September 2023Hearts0–1MotherwellxG 1.51–1.14
19 February 2023Motherwell2–0HeartsxG 1.33–0.94
6 November 2022Hearts3–2MotherwellxG 2.61–2.25

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 6, Motherwell won 5, and 0 were drawn. Goals 16–13 and xG 1.53–1.56 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland181,581330.320.15
Vargas12979210.270.12
Drammeh6501100.290.01
Forrest8733100.180.11

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller191,671260.150.24
Stamatelopoulos13897510.340.04
Watt4653100.250.10
Maswanhise9807430.260.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.