Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 1–0 St. Johnstone

Saturday 25 November 2023, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 14 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 18,678

Hearts Shankland 61'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Goals10
xG1.440.85
Expected Points1.790.91

Hearts 50%Draw 30%St. Johnstone 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 1–0, 13%.

St. Johnstone goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+9%8%3%6%1%10%11%5%4%5%2%1%1%13%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTOda on for Forrest, 59'Nieuwenhof on for Lowry, 68'Devlin on for Grant and Vargas on for Boyce, 81'Gallacher on for Considine, 46'Jephcott on for Kane, 83'Jaiyesimi on for May, 86'Shankland 61'Hearts 1.44St. Johnstone 0.8500.511.520153045607590HTOda on for Forrest, 59'Nieuwenhof on for Lowry, 68'Devlin on for Grant and Vargas on for Boyce, 81'Gallacher on for Considine, 46'Jephcott on for Kane, 83'Jaiyesimi on for May, 86'Shankland 61'1.440.85HeartsSt. Johnstone

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsSt. Johnstone

1.44 +0.27xG0.85 +0.06
0.64 −0.65xG on target1.33 +0.70
17 +3Shots10 0
4 −0.3Shots on target3 +0.8
1 −0.1Big chances1 0.0
35 +7Touches in the opposition box20 +2
61% +2Possession39% −5
535 +52Passes340 +15
82% +5Pass accuracy72% +8
60% +1Field tilt40% 0
56 +11Final-third entries27 +1
12 −2.6Box entries13 +6.0
13.7 +1Passes per defensive action15.8 −1
6 −1.9Corners5 +0.5
15 +2Tackles22 +6
5 −1.7Interceptions14 +4.2
25 +6Clearances21 −4
3 +0.8Saves3 −0.6
5 −7Fouls17 +5
0 −0.8Offsides1 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Boyce 61', 0.24 xGBoyce 81', 0.16 xGCochrane 4', 0.13 xGBoyce 22', 0.10 xGShankland 29', 0.10 xGBoyce 68', 0.09 xGShankland 28', 0.07 xGBoyce 66', 0.05 xGBoyce 7', 0.04 xGRowles 8', 0.04 xGBaningime 28', 0.04 xGOda 70', 0.04 xGLowry 22', 0.03 xGShankland 26', 0.03 xGBoyce 11', 0.02 xGRowles 3', 0.01 xGShankland 61', 0.24 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals72%1.03 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 1.03 xG, 1 goal5%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals24%0.34 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Johnstone

Robinson 24', 0.35 xGCostelloe 24', 0.12 xGSmith 28', 0.11 xGRobinson 24', 0.08 xGGordon 33', 0.06 xGKane 77', 0.05 xGPhillips 50', 0.04 xGKucheriavyi 56', 0.02 xGMay 57', 0.02 xGPhillips 78', 0.01 xG48%0.41 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.41 xG, 0 goals26%0.22 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals20%0.17 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals5%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsSt. Johnstone

1.20 13 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.74 7 shots, 0 goals
0.16 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.09 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.12 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
61 min (68%) · Hearts 0.87, St. Johnstone 0.80 xG
Hearts ahead
29 min (32%) · Hearts 0.58, St. Johnstone 0.05 xG

Line-ups

28321517765119910ClarkKingsleyKentRowlesForrestGrantBaningimeLowryCochraneShanklandBoyceYellow cardGoal59'81'68'81'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith1564443415192279MitovMcGowanGordonConsidineCostelloePhillipsKucheriavyiRobinsonSmithMayKaneYellow card46'86'83'St. Johnstone 3-4-1-2Craig Levein

Hearts substitutes

  • 59' Oda for Forrest
  • 68' Nieuwenhof for Lowry
  • 81' Devlin for Grant
  • 81' Vargas for Boyce · yellow card 88'

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 46' Gallacher for Considine · yellow card 58'
  • 83' Jephcott for Kane
  • 86' Jaiyesimi for May

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0221
KingsleyCB900.000.0210.1156
KentCB900.000.0200.19139
RowlesCB900.050.0100.0965
ForrestRWB590.000.0200.0461
GrantCM810.000.2210.0544
BaningimeCM900.040.0210.0349
LowryCM680.030.0710.0662
Cochrane LWB900.130.6050.2784
ShanklandST9010.450.091−0.1001
BoyceST8110.700.0520.2032
OdaFW310.040.0110.0332
NieuwenhofMF220.000.0310.0422
DevlinMF90.000.0000.0001
Vargas MF90.000.0000.0211

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0000.0121
McGowanCB900.000.0400.13711
GordonCB900.060.0200.0889
ConsidineCB460.000.0200.0745
CostelloeRWB900.120.0000.0553
Phillips CM900.050.0100.01410
KucheriavyiCM900.020.0820.0582
RobinsonLWB900.430.0300.0337
SmithAM900.110.1220.2168
MayST860.020.0120.0211
KaneST830.050.0120.0201
Gallacher DF440.000.0000.0002
JephcottFW70.000.0000.0000
JaiyesimiMF40.000.0000.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Clark and Kingsley: 6 passesRowles and Grant: 6 passesCochrane and Boyce: 6 passesBaningime and Shankland: 6 passesKent and Lowry: 7 passesRowles and Baningime: 8 passesKent and Forrest: 8 passesForrest and Grant: 8 passesRowles and Cochrane: 10 passesKent and Boyce: 10 passesRowles and Lowry: 11 passesKent and Baningime: 11 passesCochrane and Lowry: 12 passesClark and Kent: 13 passesKent and Grant: 13 passesKingsley and Grant: 14 passesKingsley and Forrest: 25 passesKent and Kingsley: 27 passesRowles and Kent: 32 passesClark: 17 completed passesRowles: 42 completed passesKent: 65 completed passesKingsley: 47 completed passesForrest: 25 completed passesCochrane: 28 completed passesBaningime: 26 completed passesGrant: 31 completed passesLowry: 23 completed passesShankland: 17 completed passesBoyce: 10 completed passes28152317196751910ClarkRowlesKentKingsleyForrestCochraneBaningimeGrantLowryShanklandBoyceStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

St. Johnstone

Mitov and Gordon: 3 passesMcGowan and Gordon: 3 passesConsidine and May: 3 passesGordon and Phillips: 3 passesCostelloe and Kucheriavyi: 3 passesCostelloe and Kane: 3 passesPhillips and Robinson: 3 passesPhillips and May: 3 passesRobinson and Smith: 3 passesMitov and Kane: 4 passesConsidine and Gordon: 4 passesConsidine and Phillips: 4 passesConsidine and Kucheriavyi: 4 passesGordon and Costelloe: 4 passesKucheriavyi and May: 4 passesCostelloe and Phillips: 5 passesPhillips and Kucheriavyi: 6 passesKucheriavyi and Robinson: 6 passesMcGowan and Costelloe: 7 passesMcGowan and Phillips: 8 passesCostelloe and Smith: 9 passesMitov: 9 completed passesMcGowan: 14 completed passesConsidine: 13 completed passesGordon: 10 completed passesCostelloe: 14 completed passesPhillips: 18 completed passesKucheriavyi: 17 completed passesRobinson: 8 completed passesSmith: 11 completed passesMay: 5 completed passesKane: 6 completed passes1546443415192279MitovMcGowanConsidineGordonCostelloePhillipsKucheriavyiRobinsonSmithMayKaneStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesKent21
KingsleyKent20
KentRowles19
KentKingsley13
KingsleyForrest13

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
SmithCostelloe10
PhillipsKucheriavyi8
KucheriavyiRobinson8
RobinsonKucheriavyi8
McGowanCostelloe7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

3−4.819+6.28+0.510+5.12−4.24+0.211+3.76−0.53−3.54−1.63−0.96+0.38+1.55+0.82−2.86+2.72−1.66+0.93+1.63+1.40−1.11−0.20−2.21+0.43+2.00−0.62+1.210.00−5.73−5.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

St. Johnstone

9+4.211+3.313−1.213+3.76−1.66−0.88+1.18+2.216+8.610+0.84−3.29+4.21−2.46+0.47−0.34−0.44+1.10−1.53+0.21−4.01−1.11−0.20−1.31−0.20−2.54+3.70−0.22+1.80−0.20−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.040.020.010.020.030.060.040.030.110.040.030.030.040.040.020.060.050.130.21LessMore

St. Johnstone

0.010.010.010.010.010.060.020.040.040.020.060.030.040.020.030.08−0.02−0.010.04−0.020.020.19LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHearts1.28 → 1.28St. Johnstone0.96 → 0.95Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.30 → 1.28St. Johnstone1.48 → 1.48

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six81%86%+5
11th1%<1%−1
Bottom<1%<1%0
St. Johnstone
Top six7%5%−2
11th22%22%0
Bottom28%32%+4
Ross County
Top six8%8%0
11th22%22%0
Bottom25%23%−2
Livingston
Top six6%6%0
11th22%22%0
Bottom27%26%−1

From the forecast before the match (25 November 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Expected goals1.740.87
Win57%18%
Expected Points1.970.79
Clean sheet42%18%

Hearts 57%Draw 25%St. Johnstone 18%

Most likely score 1–0, 12%. Both sides score 48%.

St. Johnstone goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%5%1%4%1%6%6%2%3%2%1%1%12%12%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 25 November 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawSt. Johnstone win
Hearts
Top six81%86%76%70%
11th1%<1%1%2%
Bottom<1%<1%<1%1%
St. Johnstone
Top six7%5%8%14%
11th22%22%22%20%
Bottom28%32%25%16%
Ross County
Top six8%8%8%9%
11th22%22%22%22%
Bottom25%23%26%30%
Livingston
Top six6%6%6%7%
11th22%22%24%20%
Bottom27%26%28%31%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W2–111 NovMotherwell (A)xG 2.08–1.10
  2. W1–01 NovLivingston (H)xG 1.91–0.21
  3. L1–229 OctRangers (A)xG 0.24–4.03
  4. L1–422 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.73–4.01
  5. D2–27 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.25–1.32
  6. W1–030 SepRoss County (A)xG 0.98–0.40

St. Johnstone

  1. W1–011 NovRoss County (H)xG 0.69–0.21
  2. D2–27 NovMotherwell (H)xG 0.93–2.58
  3. W2–11 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 1.74–1.30
  4. L0–428 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.74–1.52
  5. D0–08 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.33–1.01
  6. D1–130 SepLivingston (H)xG 0.62–0.98

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Position4th10th
Played1212
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠2–⁠52–⁠5–⁠5
Points17 (1.42 per game)11 (0.92 per game)
Expected Points per game1.350.77
Goals12–⁠128–⁠18
xG per game1.17–⁠1.460.79–⁠1.69
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.16–⁠1.321.29, 1.00–⁠1.47
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.19–⁠1.600.40, 0.49–⁠1.99
ManagerSteven Naismith (8)Craig Levein (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHearts1.28, 3rdSt. Johnstone0.96, 12thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.30, 5thSt. Johnstone1.48, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovHearts attack: 1.28St. Johnstone attack: 0.961.280.96St. JohnstoneHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovHearts defence: 1.30St. Johnstone defence: 1.481.481.30

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Johnstone
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−5%average−43%+22%
Counter-attacks−38%−45%−86%+91%
Set pieces+5%+2%−4%+37%
Penalties−100%+83%−100%−54%
Headers−35%−10%−5%+22%
Left side−21%−14%−32%−2%
Centre−5%−1%−31%+34%
Right side+8%+6%−51%+65%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−21%+65%Centre−5%+34%Right side+8%−2%Open play−5%+22%Counter-attacks−38%+91%Set pieces+5%+37%Headers−35%+22%

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdHearts concededLeft side−32%+6%Centre−31%−1%Right side−51%−14%Open play−43%averageCounter-attacks−86%−45%Set pieces−4%+2%Headers−5%−10%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Johnstone

1.17xG0.79
1.46xG against1.69
59%Possession44%
14.2Shots10.0
12.5Shots against14.3
4.3Shots on target2.2
1.1Big chances1.0
28.1Touches in the opposition box17.5
483Passes325
77%Pass accuracy63%
7.9Corners4.5
59%Field tilt40%
45.3Final-third entries25.8
14.6Box entries7.0
12.3Passes per defensive action16.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.290.97
Ahead260.891.98
Behind211.301.80

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level490.631.08
Ahead161.062.29
Behind250.922.51

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.212–2
16–300.210.282–2
31–450.070.150–0
46–600.200.381–1
61–750.330.095–3
76–900.300.352–4

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.072–0
16–300.150.182–1
31–450.050.221–4
46–600.090.310–5
61–750.140.421–5
76–900.210.482–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTClark 12Atkinson 5Sibbick 4Kingsley 2Kent 12Rowles 12Kingsley 7Cochrane 2Boyce 2Devlin 7Baningime 1Offiah 1Nieuwenhof 6Haring 4Lowry 3Oda 5Forrest 4Devlin 1Boyce 3Baningime 3Shankland 2Vargas 4Lowry 3Cochrane 3Shankland 10Vargas 1Tagawa 14-2-3-1 in 8 of 12 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-3 (1)

St. Johnstone

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTMitov 12Olufunwa 4Brown 3McGowan 2Gordon 8McClelland 5Considine 9Robinson 2Robinson 7Considine 1Clark 1Sprangler 3McGowan 2Turner-Cooke 2Costelloe 4Wright 2Smith 1Smith 8Kucheriavyi 4Ballantyne 2Phillips 7Sprangler 2MacPherson 1Carey 8Clark 1Costelloe 1May 4Kane 3Costelloe 24-1-4-1 in 3 of 12 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
5 August 2023St. Johnstone0–2HeartsxG 0.94–1.77
4 March 2023Hearts3–0St. JohnstonexG 1.63–1.19
28 December 2022St. Johnstone2–3HeartsxG 2.50–2.33
28 August 2022Hearts3–2St. JohnstonexG 2.74–0.77
19 February 2022St. Johnstone2–1HeartsxG 0.69–1.56
18 January 2022Hearts2–0St. JohnstonexG 1.71–1.14

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 5, St. Johnstone won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 15–7 and xG 1.81–1.21 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland121,080500.400.17
Boyce5520120.280.23
Lowry7545010.130.29
Forrest5524200.160.16

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Carey11990120.040.19
May4468010.120.03
Gordon9759000.120.01
Robinson10900010.010.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.