Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

St. Johnstone 1–1 Hibernian

Thursday 2 January 2025, 15:00 · McDiarmid Park · Round 21 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Lloyd Wilson · Attendance 6,287

St. Johnstone Clark 45+4' (pen) · Holt sent off 41'

Hibernian Gayle 79'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. JohnstoneHibernian
Goals11
xG0.962.27
Non-penalty xG0.182.27
Expected Points0.472.31

St. Johnstone 8%Draw 22%Hibernian 69%

Most likely score 1–2, 21%. Final score 1–1, 17%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+1%4%5%4%2%4%8%3%3%4%3%1%17%21%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTHolt (St. Johnstone), red card 41'Keltjens on for Sidibeh, 67'Smith on for Franczak, 68'Gayle on for Miller and Obita on for Iredale, 60'Levitt on for Kwon, 61'McKirdy on for Hoilett, 71'Molotnikov on for Campbell, 86'Clark 45+4' (pen)Gayle 79'Hibernian 2.27St. Johnstone 0.9601230153045607590HTHolt (St. Johnstone), red card 41'Keltjens on for Sidibeh, 67'Smith on for Franczak, 68'Gayle on for Miller and Obita on for Iredale, 60'Levitt on for Kwon, 61'McKirdy on for Hoilett, 71'Molotnikov on for Campbell, 86'Clark 45+4' (pen)Gayle 79'2.270.96St. JohnstoneHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. JohnstoneHibernian

0.96 −0.05xG2.27 +0.59
0.18Non-penalty xG2.27
0.77 −0.21xG on target1.23 −0.25
5 −4.5Shots18 +4.9
2 −1.0Shots on target5 +0.9
1 −0.2Big chances3 +0.5
16 0Touches in the opposition box37 +14
40% −12Possession60% +14
339 −90Passes484 +156
77% 0Pass accuracy86% +15
25% −20Field tilt75% +25
26 −10Final-third entries69 +34
9 +0.9Box entries19 +9.1
12.6 −3Passes per defensive action12.8 −2
4 +0.2Corners9 +3.2
19 +4Tackles16 +3
9 +1.0Interceptions7 −0.5
60 +28Clearances18 −13
3 0.0Saves1 −1.8
10 −1Fouls7 −5
2 +0.7Offsides3 +1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Johnstone

Sidibeh 11', 0.09 xGSanders 2', 0.04 xGSidibeh 18', 0.02 xGSidibeh 57', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals88%0.15 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals12%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

McKirdy 82', 0.53 xGCampbell 64', 0.23 xGCampbell 86', 0.14 xGN. Cadden 50', 0.12 xGC. Cadden 19', 0.11 xGCampbell 50', 0.10 xGBoyle 26', 0.09 xGTriantis 82', 0.08 xGGayle 90+6', 0.08 xGKwon 7', 0.06 xGHoilett 23', 0.06 xGN. Cadden 76', 0.05 xGHoilett 63', 0.04 xGC. Cadden 73', 0.03 xGN. Cadden 81', 0.03 xGTriantis 88', 0.03 xGTriantis 77', 0.02 xGGayle 79', 0.47 xG, goal28%0.63 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.63 xG, 0 goals50%1.14 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.14 xG, 1 goal20%0.45 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.45 xG, 0 goals1%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. JohnstoneHibernian

0.11 2 shots, 0 goalsOpen play2.02 15 shots, 1 goal
0.06 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.25 3 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
66 min (66%) · St. Johnstone 0.95, Hibernian 1.20 xG
St. Johnstone ahead
34 min (34%) · St. Johnstone 0.02, Hibernian 1.06 xG

Line-ups

121452346237102916RaeWrightSandersMikulicRaymondFranczakSpranglerHoltClarkKimpiokaSidibehSent offGoalYellow card68'67'St. Johnstone 4-3-2-1Simo Valakari132331512261819321023SmithMillerBushiriIredaleC. CaddenTriantisKwonN. CaddenCampbellBoyleHoilettYellow cardYellow cardYellow card60'60'61'86'71'Hibernian 3-4-1-2David Gray

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 67' Keltjens for Sidibeh
  • 68' Smith for Franczak

Hibernian substitutes

  • 60' Obita for Iredale
  • 60' Gayle for Miller · goal 79'
  • 61' Levitt for Kwon
  • 71' McKirdy for Hoilett
  • 86' Molotnikov for Campbell

Players

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RaeGK900.000.0000.0461
WrightRB900.000.4310.281212
SandersCB900.040.0000.01119
MikulicCB900.000.0000.04415
RaymondLB900.000.0000.0129
FranczakCM680.000.1320.0433
SpranglerCM900.000.0100.01214
Holt CM410.000.041−0.0201
Clark AM9010.790.0100.0156
KimpiokaAM900.000.0000.0026
SidibehST670.130.040−0.1984
KeltjensMF230.000.0000.0122
SmithMF220.000.0000.0012

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SmithGK900.000.0000.0100
MillerCB600.000.0110.0625
Bushiri CB900.000.0100.0555
Iredale CB600.000.0000.0622
C. CaddenRWB900.140.0500.0954
Triantis CM9010.130.2340.2677
KwonCM610.060.1010.0446
N. CaddenLWB900.200.2940.30192
CampbellAM860.470.0800.0323
BoyleST900.090.1030.1070
HoilettST710.100.2220.1032
ObitaDF300.000.0100.0852
GayleFW3010.560.0000.0000
LevittMF290.000.0300.0732
McKirdyFW190.530.0000.0410
MolotnikovFW40.000.0000.0211

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Johnstone

Sanders and Sprangler: 4 passesHolt and Clark: 4 passesFranczak and Clark: 4 passesRae and Mikulic: 5 passesWright and Clark: 5 passesMikulic and Sprangler: 5 passesSanders and Holt: 5 passesRaymond and Sprangler: 5 passesClark and Sidibeh: 5 passesMikulic and Raymond: 6 passesSprangler and Holt: 7 passesSprangler and Franczak: 7 passesRae and Sanders: 8 passesWright and Holt: 9 passesWright and Sidibeh: 9 passesMikulic and Holt: 9 passesWright and Sprangler: 10 passesWright and Franczak: 10 passesRaymond and Holt: 11 passesWright and Sanders: 12 passesMikulic and Sanders: 26 passesRae: 9 completed passesWright: 26 completed passesMikulic: 30 completed passesSanders: 33 completed passesRaymond: 18 completed passesSprangler: 24 completed passesHolt: 26 completed passesFranczak: 14 completed passesClark: 15 completed passesKimpioka: 7 completed passesSidibeh: 6 completed passes121425323746102916RaeWrightMikulicSandersRaymondSpranglerHoltFranczakClarkKimpiokaSidibehStarters until 41' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hibernian

Smith and Miller: 4 passesMiller and Triantis: 4 passesC. Cadden and Campbell: 4 passesKwon and Hoilett: 4 passesN. Cadden and Boyle: 4 passesIredale and Triantis: 5 passesIredale and Campbell: 5 passesBushiri and Triantis: 5 passesBushiri and Kwon: 6 passesSmith and Iredale: 7 passesN. Cadden and Hoilett: 7 passesN. Cadden and Campbell: 8 passesSmith and Bushiri: 9 passesTriantis and N. Cadden: 9 passesIredale and Kwon: 10 passesMiller and C. Cadden: 10 passesC. Cadden and Hoilett: 10 passesTriantis and Kwon: 11 passesC. Cadden and Triantis: 12 passesMiller and Bushiri: 16 passesKwon and N. Cadden: 16 passesIredale and Bushiri: 18 passesIredale and N. Cadden: 24 passesSmith: 16 completed passesIredale: 37 completed passesMiller: 21 completed passesBushiri: 33 completed passesC. Cadden: 19 completed passesTriantis: 27 completed passesKwon: 24 completed passesN. Cadden: 32 completed passesCampbell: 15 completed passesBoyle: 5 completed passesHoilett: 12 completed passes131523312261819321023SmithIredaleMillerBushiriC. CaddenTriantisKwonN. CaddenCampbellBoyleHoilettStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
MikulicSanders16
SandersMikulic12
WrightSidibeh10
RaymondMikulic9
HoltRaymond7

Hibernian

FromToPasses
C. CaddenBoyle19
IredaleN. Cadden17
BushiriC. Cadden14
BushiriMiller13
TriantisC. Cadden12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Johnstone

7+1.514+6.938+19.39+2.611+5.112+5.070.01−5.39+2.76−2.04−1.14−0.22−1.14−0.54−1.84+1.22−0.61−0.72−0.37+3.54+1.42+0.41+0.21−0.20−1.82+1.40−0.41+0.60−0.21+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Hibernian

5+0.22−5.04−3.83−1.76−0.72−3.08+2.04−2.57+0.49+4.25+1.51−2.112+7.55+0.25+1.42−1.64+1.64+1.33−1.05+3.12+0.63+1.90−1.63+0.52+1.41+0.61+0.21+0.60−0.56−10.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Johnstone

0.010.020.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.050.030.010.040.010.03−0.01−0.01−0.010.020.04−0.02−0.270.23LessMore

Hibernian

0.030.010.010.010.030.030.020.040.060.010.080.08−0.010.040.140.120.040.130.050.080.070.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackSt. Johnstone0.99 → 0.98Hibernian1.39 → 1.40Defence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.57 → 1.58Hibernian1.28 → 1.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Johnstone
Top six<1%<1%0
11th22%23%+1
Bottom58%60%+2
Hibernian
Top six61%57%−4
11th1%2%+1
St. Mirren
Top six43%44%+1
11th4%4%0
Bottom1%1%0
Ross County
Top six3%3%0
11th28%29%+1
Bottom19%18%−1

From the forecast before the match (2 January 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. JohnstoneHibernian
Expected goals1.141.45
Win29%44%
Expected Points1.151.58
Clean sheet23%32%

St. Johnstone 29%Draw 27%Hibernian 44%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+8%8%4%1%8%9%4%2%5%7%5%2%2%3%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 January 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Johnstone winDrawHibernian win
St. Johnstone
Top six<1%1%<1%<1%
11th22%24%23%20%
Bottom58%45%60%66%
Hibernian
Top six61%48%57%72%
11th1%2%2%<1%
St. Mirren
Top six43%47%44%40%
11th4%3%4%4%
Bottom1%1%1%1%
Ross County
Top six3%2%3%2%
11th28%27%29%29%
Bottom19%24%18%16%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. L0–429 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.06–4.68
  2. L1–226 DecDundee United (H)xG 0.58–1.27
  3. L1–222 DecHearts (A)xG 1.28–0.75
  4. L2–314 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.79–2.08
  5. D1–17 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.35–0.70
  6. L0–11 DecRangers (H)xG 0.15–1.73

Hibernian

  1. W1–029 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 2.32–0.25
  2. W2–126 DecHearts (A)xG 1.93–0.70
  3. W3–121 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.44–1.90
  4. W3–114 DecRoss County (H)xG 4.80–1.22
  5. L0–37 DecCeltic (A)xG 2.34–3.83
  6. W3–030 NovMotherwell (A)xG 3.15–0.75

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneHibernian
Position12th7th
Played2020
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠2–⁠146–⁠6–⁠8
Points14 (0.70 per game)24 (1.20 per game)
Expected Points per game1.131.47
Goals22–⁠4027–⁠31
xG per game1.01–⁠1.491.68–⁠1.49
Home: points, xG per game0.67, 1.00–⁠1.481.30, 1.86–⁠1.27
Away: points, xG per game0.73, 1.03–⁠1.501.10, 1.50–⁠1.72
ManagerSimo Valakari (13)David Gray (22)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackSt. Johnstone0.99, 12thHibernian1.39, 3rdDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.57, 11thHibernian1.28, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecSt. Johnstone attack: 0.99Hibernian attack: 1.391.390.99HibernianSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecSt. Johnstone defence: 1.57Hibernian defence: 1.281.571.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−34%+23%−1%−8%
Counter-attacks−68%−13%+18%+89%
Set pieces−26%−7%+44%+22%
Penalties+25%−69%+57%−37%
Headers−42%+19%+10%+10%
Left side−29%+23%−5%−20%
Centre−40%+12%+27%+24%
Right side−28%−4%+2%+3%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdHibernian concededLeft side−29%+3%Centre−40%+24%Right side−28%−20%Open play−34%−8%Counter-attacks−68%+89%Set pieces−26%+22%Headers−42%+10%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−5%−4%Centre+27%+12%Right side+2%+23%Open play−1%+23%Counter-attacks+18%−13%Set pieces+44%−7%Headers+10%+19%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneHibernian

1.01xG1.68
1.49xG against1.49
52%Possession46%
9.5Shots13.1
14.0Shots against12.4
3.0Shots on target4.1
1.2Big chances2.5
15.5Touches in the opposition box23.1
429Passes328
77%Pass accuracy72%
3.8Corners5.8
45%Field tilt50%
36.0Final-third entries34.7
8.1Box entries9.9
15.8Passes per defensive action15.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.131.73
Ahead151.391.23
Behind390.761.37

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.691.32
Ahead241.701.38
Behind271.651.85

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.172–3
16–300.120.252–7
31–450.180.214–6
46–600.180.255–9
61–750.130.213–6
76–900.300.396–9

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.282–5
16–300.290.254–4
31–450.320.147–5
46–600.240.213–4
61–750.390.205–0
76–900.280.426–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTRae 11Sinclair 9Neilson 10Wright 8Essel 3Sanders 18McClelland 1Cameron 12Mikulic 6Wright 8Clark 6Neilson 2Holt 11Carey 6MacPhers… 3MacPhersonSprangler 15Raymond 2Sidibeh 2Smith 13Essel 4Raymond 12Wright 2Douglas 2Clark 8Kirk 8Sidibeh 8Kimpioka 163-5-2 in 7 of 20 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (7), 4-3-1-2 (7), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBursik 13Smith 7Miller 12C. Cadden 8Ekpiteta 12Bushiri 7O'Hora 15Iredale 6Obita 14Newell 5Iredale 1Newell 10Kwon 9N. Cadden 6Triantis 12Boyle 8O'Hora 4C. Cadden 3Campbell 5Triantis 4Hoilett 3Hoilett 7Youan 5N. Cadden 4Kukharevych 10Boyle 3Youan 34-2-3-1 in 7 of 20 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-1-2 (5), 4-3-3 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 September 2024Hibernian2–0St. JohnstonexG 1.61–0.25
27 April 2024St. Johnstone1–3HibernianxG 0.82–1.76
6 April 2024Hibernian1–2St. JohnstonexG 0.95–0.62
16 December 2023St. Johnstone1–0HibernianxG 0.94–0.10
23 September 2023Hibernian2–0St. JohnstonexG 2.78–0.62
22 April 2023St. Johnstone1–1HibernianxG 0.84–0.45

16 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 5, Hibernian won 8, and 3 were drawn. Goals 12–21 and xG 0.56–1.35 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Carey7779210.160.21
Kirk10911510.310.04
Kimpioka161,443620.310.04
Clark151,199510.290.02

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
N. Cadden10847430.340.34
Hoilett11883210.330.28
Kukharevych13983300.570.02
Youan11894210.350.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.