Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Aberdeen 0–1 Kilmarnock

Wednesday 6 December 2023, 19:45 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 16 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 13,668

Kilmarnock Watson 90+2'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenKilmarnock
Goals01
xG1.140.64
Expected Points1.740.92

Aberdeen 47%Draw 34%Kilmarnock 19%

Most likely score 1–0, 19%. Final score 0–1, 11%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+11%3%4%11%8%3%4%3%16%19%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTMcGarry on for MacDonald and Morris on for Duk, 76'McKenzie on for Lyons, 60'Polworth on for Donnelly, 73'Kennedy on for Watkins, 82'Watson 90+2'Aberdeen 1.14Kilmarnock 0.6400.511.50153045607590HTMcGarry on for MacDonald and Morris on for Duk, 76'McKenzie on for Lyons, 60'Polworth on for Donnelly, 73'Kennedy on for Watkins, 82'Watson 90+2'1.140.64AberdeenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.14 −0.24xG0.64 −0.62
0.58 −0.62xG on target0.99 −0.20
18 +8Shots8 −7
3 −0.5Shots on target2 −1.7
1 −0.9Big chances2 +0.2
30 +9Touches in the opposition box15 −10
64% +19Possession36% −12
436 +92Passes245 −102
73% +8Pass accuracy58% −8
67% +26Field tilt33% −20
36 +7Final-third entries30 −5
14 +4.5Box entries8 −4.4
10.1 −6Passes per defensive action9.3 −5
4 −0.6Corners5 −1.9
17 0Tackles16 +4
6 −2.1Interceptions6 −0.8
14 −14Clearances33 +16
1 −2.5Saves3 +0.3
11 0Fouls21 +9
2 +1.3Offsides1 +0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Duk 21', 0.22 xGMcGrath 62', 0.15 xGJensen 89', 0.14 xGHayes 62', 0.12 xGJensen 86', 0.08 xGMcGrath 62', 0.07 xGMiovski 27', 0.06 xGMcGrath 62', 0.06 xGShinnie 5', 0.04 xGMiovski 62', 0.04 xGMcGrath 78', 0.04 xGHayes 70', 0.03 xGMorris 78', 0.03 xGDuk 35', 0.02 xGMcGrath 56', 0.02 xGMiovski 74', 0.02 xGClarkson 51', 0.01 xGGartenmann 62', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals84%0.95 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 0.95 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals11%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Ndaba 25', 0.13 xGFindlay 87', 0.12 xGArmstrong 24', 0.06 xGDonnelly 24', 0.06 xGArmstrong 48', 0.06 xGVassell 8', 0.02 xGWatson 45+1', 0.02 xGWatson 90+2', 0.18 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals84%0.54 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.54 xG, 1 goal3%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals12%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenKilmarnock

0.46 10 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.32 4 shots, 1 goal
0.68 8 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.32 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
93 min (99%) · Aberdeen 1.14, Kilmarnock 0.64 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
1 min (1%) · Aberdeen 0.00, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG

Line-ups

2462752710417911RoosGartenmannMacDonaldJensenDevlinMcGrathClarksonShinnieHayesMiovskiDukYellow cardYellow cardYellow card76'76'Aberdeen 3-5-2Barry Robson1517611122283239DennisMayoFindlayDeasArmstrongWatsonDonnellyLyonsNdabaWatkinsVassellGoal73'60'82'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 76' McGarry for MacDonald
  • 76' Morris for Duk

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 60' McKenzie for Lyons · yellow card 86'
  • 73' Polworth for Donnelly
  • 82' Kennedy for Watkins · 1 assist

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0221
Gartenmann CB900.010.0910.28125
MacDonaldCB760.000.0100.0763
JensenCB900.210.0100.1139
DevlinRWB900.000.1310.2262
McGrathCM900.340.2310.1452
ClarksonCM900.010.0610.0842
Shinnie CM900.040.0110.0014
Hayes LWB900.150.3520.2155
MiovskiST900.120.071−0.0511
DukST760.230.1010.0523
McGarryDF140.000.0210.0422
MorrisFW140.030.0000.0110

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0430
MayoCB900.000.0300.08110
FindlayCB900.120.0000.05520
DeasCB900.000.0000.02414
ArmstrongRWB900.120.1630.15124
WatsonCM9010.200.0710.0325
DonnellyCM730.060.0100.1124
LyonsCM600.000.0110.0322
NdabaLWB900.130.0100.0452
WatkinsST820.000.0310.0321
VassellST900.020.0000.0212
McKenzie MF300.000.0000.0000
PolworthMF170.000.0000.0110
KennedyMF810.000.0310.1240

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Gartenmann and Shinnie: 4 passesJensen and McGrath: 4 passesMacDonald and Hayes: 4 passesMcGrath and Shinnie: 4 passesGartenmann and Clarkson: 5 passesMacDonald and Duk: 5 passesHayes and McGrath: 5 passesHayes and Duk: 5 passesMcGrath and Duk: 5 passesHayes and Shinnie: 6 passesMcGrath and Clarkson: 6 passesShinnie and Miovski: 6 passesDevlin and Clarkson: 7 passesJensen and Clarkson: 8 passesJensen and Duk: 8 passesRoos and MacDonald: 9 passesJensen and Hayes: 9 passesDevlin and Miovski: 10 passesDevlin and McGrath: 11 passesGartenmann and McGrath: 13 passesGartenmann and Devlin: 14 passesJensen and MacDonald: 15 passesMacDonald and Clarkson: 15 passesRoos and Gartenmann: 16 passesRoos and Jensen: 18 passesGartenmann and MacDonald: 21 passesRoos: 25 completed passesGartenmann: 45 completed passesJensen: 37 completed passesMacDonald: 44 completed passesDevlin: 23 completed passesHayes: 19 completed passesMcGrath: 23 completed passesClarkson: 26 completed passesShinnie: 13 completed passesMiovski: 12 completed passesDuk: 12 completed passes2465272177104911RoosGartenmannJensenMacDonaldDevlinHayesMcGrathClarksonShinnieMiovskiDukStarters until 76' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Mayo: 3 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 3 passesNdaba and Lyons: 3 passesLyons and Donnelly: 3 passesDennis and Watkins: 4 passesDeas and Donnelly: 4 passesArmstrong and Watson: 4 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 4 passesNdaba and Vassell: 4 passesWatkins and Vassell: 4 passesDennis and Findlay: 5 passesMayo and Armstrong: 5 passesFindlay and Deas: 5 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 7 passesDennis: 9 completed passesMayo: 11 completed passesFindlay: 14 completed passesDeas: 10 completed passesArmstrong: 11 completed passesNdaba: 9 completed passesWatson: 7 completed passesLyons: 13 completed passesDonnelly: 8 completed passesWatkins: 7 completed passesVassell: 6 completed passes1517611312822239DennisMayoFindlayDeasArmstrongNdabaWatsonLyonsDonnellyWatkinsVassellStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
GartenmannDevlin12
MacDonaldGartenmann11
GartenmannMacDonald10
GartenmannMcGrath10
JensenRoos9

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
LyonsArmstrong7
MayoVassell4
DennisWatkins4
FindlayWatson3
FindlayNdaba3

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

3−2.58+0.35−0.28−0.25−2.33−3.77−3.14−5.211+5.69+3.05+1.98+2.72−3.91−3.53+0.10−1.97+3.15+0.21−1.60−1.60−0.70−1.91−2.00−1.50−0.40−0.50−0.30−0.53−5.711−6.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Kilmarnock

6+1.56−0.724+13.58+0.96+1.54−2.54−4.07+1.07+0.85−1.88+3.15−0.32−1.74−0.98+2.79+3.71−2.36+3.310+6.87+2.12−1.21−1.31+0.220.03+0.81+0.51+0.73+2.10−0.30−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.010.020.030.020.030.040.060.020.010.010.100.080.010.010.030.14−0.02−0.010.010.030.10−0.050.05−0.010.46LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.040.010.010.010.010.020.030.020.010.060.020.010.020.040.050.020.010.100.090.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackAberdeen1.19 → 1.18Kilmarnock1.15 → 1.14Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.39 → 1.37Kilmarnock1.27 → 1.26

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six51%38%−13
11th5%7%+2
Bottom2%4%+2
Kilmarnock
Top six47%63%+16
11th5%2%−3
Bottom2%1%−1
Dundee FC
Top six34%31%−3
11th8%8%0

From the forecast before the match (6 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.421.11
Win43%29%
Expected Points1.581.15
Clean sheet33%24%

Aberdeen 43%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+9%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%1%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawKilmarnock win
Aberdeen
Top six51%63%46%38%
11th5%3%5%7%
Bottom2%1%3%4%
Kilmarnock
Top six47%35%47%63%
11th5%6%4%2%
Bottom2%3%2%1%
Dundee FC
Top six34%36%35%31%
11th8%8%9%8%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L0–23 DecHibernian (A)xG 3.86–1.73
  2. D1–126 NovRangers (H)xG 0.60–2.64
  3. L0–612 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.18–4.67
  4. W4–21 NovMotherwell (A)xG 2.24–1.44
  5. L0–229 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 0.29–1.85
  6. D0–08 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.01–0.33

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–12 DecHearts (H)xG 1.16–0.73
  2. D0–025 NovRoss County (A)xG 0.65–0.88
  3. L0–111 NovHibernian (A)xG 0.46–0.41
  4. W1–04 NovMotherwell (H)xG 1.95–0.61
  5. L1–21 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.30–1.74
  6. W2–029 OctAberdeen (H)xG 1.85–0.29

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenKilmarnock
Position10th7th
Played1315
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠4–⁠64–⁠5–⁠6
Points13 (1.00 per game)17 (1.13 per game)
Expected Points per game1.131.46
Goals15–⁠2315–⁠16
xG per game1.38–⁠1.861.26–⁠1.09
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.54–⁠1.601.75, 1.21–⁠0.82
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.29–⁠2.020.43, 1.33–⁠1.40
ManagerBarry Robson (28)Derek McInnes (53)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackAberdeen1.19, 5thKilmarnock1.15, 6thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.39, 6thKilmarnock1.27, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecAberdeen attack: 1.19Kilmarnock attack: 1.151.191.15KilmarnockAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecAberdeen defence: 1.39Kilmarnock defence: 1.271.391.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−10%+34%−13%−30%
Counter-attacks+65%+6%−55%−20%
Set pieces+19%+53%+29%+9%
Penalties−14%+30%−25%−25%
Headers−7%+77%+45%−24%
Left side−22%+30%+14%−52%
Centre+27%+59%−19%−15%
Right side−23%−7%+4%+7%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−22%+7%Centre+27%−15%Right side−23%−52%Open play−10%−30%Counter-attacks+65%−20%Set pieces+19%+9%Headers−7%−24%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side+14%−7%Centre−19%+59%Right side+4%+30%Open play−13%+34%Counter-attacks−55%+6%Set pieces+29%+53%Headers+45%+77%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.38xG1.26
1.86xG against1.09
45%Possession48%
10.4Shots14.7
14.6Shots against11.7
3.5Shots on target3.7
1.9Big chances1.8
21.2Touches in the opposition box24.5
344Passes347
65%Pass accuracy65%
4.6Corners6.9
40%Field tilt53%
28.7Final-third entries35.3
9.5Box entries12.4
15.6Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.861.45
Ahead221.922.25
Behind291.702.12

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.120.97
Ahead161.181.28
Behind271.581.18

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.271–3
16–300.170.343–3
31–450.380.204–1
46–600.180.242–1
61–750.210.273–5
76–900.320.542–10

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.151–3
16–300.220.183–3
31–450.230.182–4
46–600.220.093–3
61–750.200.154–0
76–900.300.332–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTRoos 13Gartenmann 9Devlin 2Rubezic 13MacDonald 2Jensen 10MacKenzie 3Devlin 11Morris 2Clarkson 8Barron 4Polvara 1Shinnie 13McGarry 4MacKenzie 4Hayes 3McGrath 6Polvara 5Clarkson 1Miovski 12Sokler 2Duk 8McGrath 3Hayes 13-4-1-2 in 7 of 13 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (7), 5-4-1 (3), 5-3-2 (2), 3-5-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 15Mayo 14Wright 10Deas 7Findlay 14Armstrong 14Mayo 1Watson 12Watkins 1Armstrong 1Lyons 14Deas 2Magennis 7Donnelly 3Polworth 3Kennedy 7Ndaba 6Deas 1Watkins 12Kennedy 4Vassell 10Findlay 1Deas 13-5-2 in 8 of 15 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (8), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 October 2023Kilmarnock2–0AberdeenxG 1.85–0.29
8 April 2023Aberdeen2–0KilmarnockxG 2.20–1.09
28 December 2022Kilmarnock2–1AberdeenxG 1.91–0.42
1 October 2022Aberdeen4–1KilmarnockxG 2.33–0.47
20 February 2021Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.88
20 December 2020Kilmarnock0–2AberdeenxG 0.36–1.03

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 5, Kilmarnock won 2, and 0 were drawn. Goals 11–5 and xG 1.31–1.01 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski131,091510.510.14
McGrath9711400.370.15
Duk8739220.240.12
Clarkson9914010.020.29

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong151,320340.280.37
Vassell10879500.350.08
Kennedy121,140010.150.19
Watson121,103120.110.13

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.