Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 2–0 Aberdeen

Sunday 29 October 2023, 12:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 10 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 5,480

Kilmarnock Vassell 45+5', Watkins 64'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockAberdeen
Goals20
xG1.850.29
Expected Points2.540.29

Kilmarnock 79%Draw 18%Aberdeen 4%

Most likely score 2–0, 23%. Final score 2–0, 23%.

Aberdeen goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%3%8%7%13%4%5%2%1%22%23%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTDeas on for Wright, 51'McKenzie on for Polworth and Donnelly on for Watkins, 65'Dallas on for Armstrong and Davies on for Kennedy, 90'Duncan on for MacKenzie, 46'Polvara on for Shinnie and Clarkson on for Barron, 55'Sokler on for McGrath, 71'Vassell 45+5'Watkins 64'Kilmarnock 1.85Aberdeen 0.2900.511.520153045607590HTDeas on for Wright, 51'McKenzie on for Polworth and Donnelly on for Watkins, 65'Dallas on for Armstrong and Davies on for Kennedy, 90'Duncan on for MacKenzie, 46'Polvara on for Shinnie and Clarkson on for Barron, 55'Sokler on for McGrath, 71'Vassell 45+5'Watkins 64'1.850.29KilmarnockAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockAberdeen

1.85 +0.56xG0.29 −1.06
1.77 +0.65xG on target0.06 −1.23
19 +6Shots5 −6
8 +4.7Shots on target1 −2.4
2 +0.3Big chances1 −0.9
28 +7Touches in the opposition box17 −6
49% +3Possession51% +4
304 −41Passes334 −12
59% −6Pass accuracy59% −6
68% +21Field tilt32% −14
30 −5Final-third entries21 −9
9 −4.0Box entries8 −1.9
19.5 +4Passes per defensive action16.5 +2
9 +3.3Corners3 −2.9
9 −4Tackles20 +3
4 −3.7Interceptions6 −1.6
23 +6Clearances24 −3
1 −2.2Saves6 +3.0
12 0Fouls14 +3
0 −0.6Offsides2 +1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Wright 18', 0.19 xGWright 43', 0.17 xGWatkins 62', 0.12 xGVassell 34', 0.11 xGArmstrong 63', 0.11 xGWatson 17', 0.10 xGLyons 32', 0.08 xGArmstrong 62', 0.06 xGKennedy 24', 0.05 xGWatson 55', 0.05 xGKennedy 7', 0.04 xGKennedy 81', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 84', 0.04 xGArmstrong 39', 0.03 xGVassell 39', 0.03 xGKennedy 54', 0.02 xGArmstrong 58', 0.02 xGWatkins 64', 0.56 xG, goalVassell 45+5', 0.04 xG, goal25%0.47 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.47 xG, 0 goals56%1.04 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.04 xG, 1 goal10%0.18 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 1 goal7%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Sokler 76', 0.13 xGPolvara 80', 0.05 xGMiovski 83', 0.05 xGMiovski 45+1', 0.04 xGDevlin 10', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals62%0.18 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals21%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals17%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockAberdeen

1.09 9 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.19 3 shots, 0 goals
0.77 10 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.10 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
50 min (53%) · Kilmarnock 0.84, Aberdeen 0.06 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
45 min (47%) · Kilmarnock 1.02, Aberdeen 0.23 xG

Line-ups

14517111283110239DennisWrightMayoFindlayArmstrongWatsonLyonsPolworthKennedyWatkinsVassellYellow cardGoalGoal51'90'65'90'65'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes24633528437911RoosGartenmannRubezicJensenDevlinBarronShinnieMacKenzieMcGrathMiovskiDukYellow cardYellow card55'55'46'71'Aberdeen 3-4-1-2Barry Robson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 51' Deas for Wright
  • 65' Donnelly for Watkins
  • 65' McKenzie for Polworth
  • 90' Davies for Kennedy
  • 90' Dallas for Armstrong

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' Duncan for MacKenzie
  • 55' Polvara for Shinnie
  • 55' Clarkson for Barron
  • 71' Sokler for McGrath · yellow card 89'

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0100.0992
WrightCB510.360.0400.2275
MayoCB900.000.0100.0446
FindlayCB900.000.071−0.1414
ArmstrongRWB9010.220.244−0.0791
WatsonCM900.160.0300.1122
Lyons CM900.080.0110.0013
PolworthCM650.000.2620.0831
KennedyLWB900.140.1910.2253
WatkinsST6510.680.1120.1420
VassellST9010.170.1030.0214
DeasDF390.000.0000.0003
DonnellyMF250.000.0000.0004
McKenzieMF250.040.0910.0710
DaviesDF00.000.0000.0001
DallasFW00.000.0000.0000

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.1000.1351
Gartenmann CB900.000.0100.0449
RubezicCB900.000.0000.04712
JensenCB900.000.0200.1098
DevlinRWB900.020.0200.0936
BarronCM550.000.0100.0222
Shinnie CM550.000.0000.0003
MacKenzieLWB460.000.0000.0027
McGrathAM710.000.0000.0012
MiovskiST900.090.020−0.0510
DukST900.000.0810.1260
DuncanFW440.000.0000.0020
PolvaraMF350.050.0000.0333
ClarksonMF350.000.0520.0322
Sokler FW190.130.000−0.0300

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Armstrong: 3 passesWright and Polworth: 3 passesFindlay and Watson: 3 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 3 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 3 passesKennedy and Watson: 3 passesWatson and Lyons: 3 passesWatson and Watkins: 3 passesDennis and Mayo: 4 passesMayo and Polworth: 4 passesArmstrong and Watson: 4 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 4 passesKennedy and Vassell: 4 passesWatson and Polworth: 4 passesDennis and Findlay: 5 passesWright and Mayo: 5 passesMayo and Armstrong: 5 passesPolworth and Vassell: 5 passesDennis and Wright: 6 passesFindlay and Lyons: 6 passesFindlay and Vassell: 6 passesKennedy and Polworth: 7 passesWright and Armstrong: 8 passesDennis: 14 completed passesWright: 14 completed passesMayo: 17 completed passesFindlay: 19 completed passesArmstrong: 11 completed passesKennedy: 9 completed passesWatson: 12 completed passesPolworth: 18 completed passesLyons: 9 completed passesWatkins: 4 completed passesVassell: 6 completed passes14517111012318239DennisWrightMayoFindlayArmstrongKennedyWatsonPolworthLyonsWatkinsVassellStarters until 51' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Aberdeen

Roos and Rubezic: 3 passesJensen and Rubezic: 3 passesRubezic and Barron: 3 passesDevlin and Barron: 3 passesDevlin and Miovski: 3 passesShinnie and MacKenzie: 3 passesShinnie and Duk: 3 passesBarron and Miovski: 3 passesGartenmann and Rubezic: 4 passesGartenmann and Miovski: 4 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 4 passesJensen and Barron: 5 passesRoos and Gartenmann: 6 passesGartenmann and Devlin: 6 passesJensen and MacKenzie: 7 passesRoos and Jensen: 9 passesRoos: 13 completed passesGartenmann: 13 completed passesJensen: 17 completed passesRubezic: 10 completed passesDevlin: 13 completed passesShinnie: 9 completed passesBarron: 11 completed passesMacKenzie: 8 completed passesMcGrath: 4 completed passesMiovski: 6 completed passesDuk: 3 completed passes24653324837911RoosGartenmannJensenRubezicDevlinShinnieBarronMacKenzieMcGrathMiovskiDukStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
FindlayVassell6
LyonsArmstrong6
MayoArmstrong6
PolworthWatson5
WrightArmstrong5

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
RoosJensen7
RubezicJensen7
DevlinGartenmann7
JensenDuk7
JensenMiovski6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

5+0.912+4.99−1.98+0.73−1.915+8.411+2.34−3.13−4.44−3.712+7.01−5.82−2.61−5.16+0.74−0.75+1.40−3.32−1.35+0.72−0.20−2.72+1.32+0.32−0.10−0.40−0.32+1.20−0.40−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Aberdeen

1−5.65−2.814−2.612+4.910+5.17−1.46−1.25−1.616+7.112+3.24−2.54−2.41−2.24−2.810+3.66+1.11−2.01−1.40−3.56+1.42−0.83+1.60−0.92+0.24+1.00−1.80−0.50−0.20−0.10−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.020.060.020.030.010.010.030.010.020.010.040.040.010.030.030.060.05−0.010.040.090.01−0.050.23LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.020.010.020.020.070.010.01−0.010.010.040.010.040.020.010.04−0.05−0.030.100.070.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackKilmarnock1.16 → 1.19Aberdeen1.20 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.35 → 1.31Aberdeen1.33 → 1.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six46%56%+10
11th6%4%−2
Bottom3%2%−1
Aberdeen
Top six54%46%−8
11th5%7%+2
Bottom2%3%+1

From the forecast before the match (29 October 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockAberdeen
Expected goals1.421.12
Win43%29%
Expected Points1.571.15
Clean sheet33%24%

Kilmarnock 43%Draw 28%Aberdeen 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Aberdeen goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%1%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 October 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawAberdeen win
Kilmarnock
Top six46%56%42%34%
11th6%4%7%9%
Bottom3%2%4%4%
Aberdeen
Top six54%46%54%67%
11th5%7%4%2%
Bottom2%3%2%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–121 OctLivingston (H)xG 1.21–1.13
  2. L1–37 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.54–2.75
  3. D1–130 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.73–0.79
  4. D2–223 SepDundee FC (A)xG 3.56–1.49
  5. D2–216 SepHibernian (H)xG 0.83–0.92
  6. L0–12 SepRoss County (H)xG 1.42–0.72

Aberdeen

  1. D0–08 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.01–0.33
  2. W3–130 SepRangers (A)xG 1.64–2.55
  3. W4–024 SepRoss County (H)xG 3.33–0.85
  4. L0–216 SepHearts (A)xG 0.53–1.18
  5. L0–23 SepHibernian (H)xG 0.98–1.23
  6. D2–227 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.87–1.97

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockAberdeen
Position7th10th
Played98
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠4–⁠32–⁠3–⁠3
Points10 (1.11 per game)9 (1.12 per game)
Expected Points per game1.321.22
Goals11–⁠1210–⁠10
xG per game1.29–⁠1.301.35–⁠1.48
Home: points, xG per game1.60, 0.94–⁠0.981.00, 1.77–⁠1.34
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 1.72–⁠1.701.25, 0.93–⁠1.61
ManagerDerek McInnes (47)Barry Robson (23)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackKilmarnock1.16, 6thAberdeen1.20, 5thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.35, 7thAberdeen1.33, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.16Aberdeen attack: 1.201.201.16AberdeenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.35Aberdeen defence: 1.331.351.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−16%−26%−21%+5%
Counter-attacks−28%+9%+20%−16%
Set pieces+16%+36%+60%+42%
Penalties+44%+44%−19%−19%
Headers+39%−40%+9%+49%
Left side+15%−66%−44%+8%
Centre−26%+3%+52%+39%
Right side+5%+38%−44%−33%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side+15%−33%Centre−26%+39%Right side+5%+8%Open play−16%+5%Counter-attacks−28%−16%Set pieces+16%+42%Headers+39%+49%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−44%+38%Centre+52%+3%Right side−44%−66%Open play−21%−26%Counter-attacks+20%+9%Set pieces+60%+36%Headers+9%−40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockAberdeen

1.29xG1.35
1.30xG against1.48
46%Possession47%
13.3Shots10.5
12.3Shots against13.2
3.3Shots on target3.4
1.7Big chances1.9
20.6Touches in the opposition box22.8
345Passes346
65%Pass accuracy65%
5.7Corners5.9
48%Field tilt46%
34.7Final-third entries30.4
13.0Box entries9.9
15.7Passes per defensive action14.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level511.051.04
Ahead180.911.72
Behind212.181.57

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level500.891.15
Ahead172.542.14
Behind221.481.70

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.131–1
16–300.270.183–2
31–450.200.231–3
46–600.190.111–3
61–750.190.143–0
76–900.320.492–3

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.270–2
16–300.250.132–1
31–450.350.213–0
46–600.240.312–1
61–750.140.261–3
76–900.250.302–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 9Mayo 8Deas 6Wright 5Findlay 8Armstrong 8Mayo 1Watson 6Watkins 1Armstrong 1Lyons 9Deas 1Magennis 7Polworth 1Kennedy 1Ndaba 5Kennedy 3Davies 1Vassell 6Kennedy 4Watkins 6Findlay 1Cameron 13-5-2 in 5 of 9 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (5), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTRoos 8Gartenmann 4Devlin 2Rubezic 8MacDonald 2Jensen 5MacKenzie 3Devlin 6Morris 2Clarkson 4Barron 3Polvara 1Shinnie 8Hayes 3McGarry 3MacKenzie 1McGrath 3Polvara 3Miovski 1Miovski 7McGrath 2Duk 73-4-1-2 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (6), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
8 April 2023Aberdeen2–0KilmarnockxG 2.20–1.09
28 December 2022Kilmarnock2–1AberdeenxG 1.91–0.42
1 October 2022Aberdeen4–1KilmarnockxG 2.33–0.47
20 February 2021Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.88
20 December 2020Kilmarnock0–2AberdeenxG 0.36–1.03
12 September 2020Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.76–0.49

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Aberdeen won 5, and 0 were drawn. Goals 3–11 and xG 0.87–1.48 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong9783330.380.41
Vassell6573300.410.07
Kennedy8727000.190.19
Watson6586110.100.17

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski8669410.540.17
Duk7587120.270.13
Clarkson5519010.030.27
Shinnie8672010.060.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.