Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

St. Johnstone 0–2 Kilmarnock

Saturday 13 April 2024, 15:00 · McDiarmid Park · Round 33 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Calum Scott · Attendance 4,087

Kilmarnock Wright 23', Watkins 81'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Goals02
xG1.223.51
Expected Points0.252.65

St. Johnstone 5%Draw 10%Kilmarnock 85%

Most likely score 1–3, 11%. Final score 0–2, 4%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+2%4%7%6%4%2%3%7%6%3%1%5%7%6%4%2%1%2%2%1%11%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTCarey on for Kucheriavyi, 59'C. Smith on for Phillips, 69'May on for Clark, Franczak on for Keltjens, and Kimpioka on for Sidibeh, 88'Deas on for Wright, 63'Lyons on for Polworth and McKenzie on for Watson, 77'Ndaba on for Armstrong and van Veen on for Vassell, 88'Wright 23'Watkins 81'Kilmarnock 3.51St. Johnstone 1.22012340153045607590HTCarey on for Kucheriavyi, 59'C. Smith on for Phillips, 69'May on for Clark, Franczak on for Keltjens, and Kimpioka on for Sidibeh, 88'Deas on for Wright, 63'Lyons on for Polworth and McKenzie on for Watson, 77'Ndaba on for Armstrong and van Veen on for Vassell, 88'Wright 23'Watkins 81'3.511.22St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

1.22 +0.34xG3.51 +2.26
0.62 −0.23xG on target3.46 +2.00
11 +1.8Shots17 +4.1
4 +1.3Shots on target5 +0.9
1 −0.3Big chances6 +3.9
11 −4Touches in the opposition box24 +2
54% +11Possession46% −1
393 +63Passes332 −1
69% +4Pass accuracy62% −2
42% +4Field tilt58% +8
43 +17Final-third entries30 −3
4 −2.8Box entries11 −1.2
13.1 −3Passes per defensive action15.8 +1
2 −1.8Corners6 −0.2
20 +2Tackles17 +3
10 +0.6Interceptions7 +0.1
22 −4Clearances27 +5
3 −0.6Saves3 +0.1
8 −4Fouls14 +2
2 +0.5Offsides0 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Johnstone

Considine 75', 0.43 xGMay 90+6', 0.15 xGKimpioka 90+1', 0.13 xGClark 53', 0.11 xGKeltjens 49', 0.09 xGMcGowan 75', 0.06 xGM. Smith 12', 0.05 xGRobinson 32', 0.05 xGKucheriavyi 49', 0.05 xGKeltjens 50', 0.05 xGM. Smith 55', 0.05 xG35%0.43 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.43 xG, 0 goals37%0.45 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.45 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals28%0.34 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Watkins 67', 0.39 xGKennedy 36', 0.38 xGFindlay 51', 0.33 xGMcKenzie 90', 0.33 xGVassell 2', 0.32 xGWatkins 34', 0.28 xGPolworth 67', 0.09 xGDonnelly 23', 0.07 xGDonnelly 70', 0.07 xGFindlay 69', 0.05 xGVassell 46', 0.04 xGArmstrong 9', 0.03 xGArmstrong 30', 0.03 xGKennedy 45', 0.03 xGNdaba 89', 0.03 xGWatkins 81', 0.85 xG, goalWright 23', 0.18 xG, goal56%1.95 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 1.95 xG, 1 goal18%0.62 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.62 xG, 1 goal21%0.75 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.75 xG, 0 goals5%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

0.48 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.53 9 shots, 1 goal
0.04 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.62 2 shots, 0 goals
0.69 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces1.36 6 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
23 min (24%) · St. Johnstone 0.05, Kilmarnock 0.59 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
73 min (76%) · St. Johnstone 1.17, Kilmarnock 2.92 xG

Line-ups

133541922153431016MitovKeltjensMcGowanConsidineRobinsonM. SmithKucheriavyiPhillipsGallacherClarkSidibeh88'59'69'88'88'St. Johnstone 4-4-2Craig Levein145171112223110923DennisWrightMayoFindlayArmstrongWatsonDonnellyPolworthKennedyVassellWatkinsGoalGoal63'88'77'77'88'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 59' Carey for Kucheriavyi
  • 69' C. Smith for Phillips
  • 88' Franczak for Keltjens
  • 88' Kimpioka for Sidibeh
  • 88' May for Clark

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 63' Deas for Wright
  • 77' Lyons for Polworth
  • 77' McKenzie for Watson
  • 88' Ndaba for Armstrong
  • 88' van Veen for Vassell

Players

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0000.0321
KeltjensRB880.140.0100.04513
McGowanCB900.060.0100.05410
ConsidineCB900.430.0000.0466
RobinsonLB900.050.0410.10711
M. SmithRM900.100.0110.0261
KucheriavyiCM590.050.0100.0022
PhillipsCM690.000.0100.0335
GallacherLM900.000.0300.0423
ClarkST880.110.010−0.0112
SidibehST880.000.0510.1020
CareyMF310.000.0610.0431
C. SmithMF210.000.0000.0221
FranczakMF20.000.0000.0110
KimpiokaFW20.130.0000.0000
MayFW20.150.0000.0710

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0121
WrightCB6310.180.0110.0522
MayoCB900.000.0000.03314
FindlayCB900.380.0000.0217
ArmstrongRWB880.060.3920.1883
WatsonCM770.000.0100.0219
DonnellyCM900.140.0210.1124
PolworthCM7710.090.2020.2351
KennedyLWB900.410.0620.0762
VassellST8810.370.052−0.1205
WatkinsST9011.530.2120.1733
DeasDF270.000.5200.0211
LyonsMF130.000.0400.0211
McKenzieMF130.330.0000.0010
NdabaDF20.030.000−0.0110
van VeenFW20.000.0810.0211

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Johnstone

Kucheriavyi and Sidibeh: 4 passesKucheriavyi and Clark: 4 passesKeltjens and Kucheriavyi: 5 passesMcGowan and M. Smith: 5 passesConsidine and Phillips: 5 passesM. Smith and Clark: 5 passesPhillips and Kucheriavyi: 5 passesPhillips and Gallacher: 5 passesSidibeh and Clark: 5 passesMcGowan and Considine: 6 passesRobinson and Clark: 6 passesM. Smith and Phillips: 6 passesM. Smith and Sidibeh: 7 passesKeltjens and M. Smith: 8 passesKeltjens and Phillips: 8 passesKeltjens and Clark: 8 passesRobinson and M. Smith: 8 passesMcGowan and Phillips: 11 passesConsidine and Robinson: 11 passesRobinson and Gallacher: 16 passesRobinson and Kucheriavyi: 17 passesMitov: 2 completed passesKeltjens: 26 completed passesMcGowan: 18 completed passesConsidine: 17 completed passesRobinson: 40 completed passesM. Smith: 21 completed passesPhillips: 22 completed passesKucheriavyi: 22 completed passesGallacher: 17 completed passesSidibeh: 9 completed passesClark: 15 completed passes133541922341531610MitovKeltjensMcGowanConsidineRobinsonM. SmithPhillipsKucheriavyiGallacherSidibehClarkStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Wright and Donnelly: 3 passesMayo and Armstrong: 3 passesMayo and Donnelly: 3 passesWatson and Watkins: 3 passesPolworth and Watkins: 3 passesWatkins and Vassell: 3 passesDennis and Mayo: 4 passesDennis and Vassell: 4 passesFindlay and Kennedy: 4 passesFindlay and Polworth: 4 passesFindlay and Vassell: 4 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 4 passesKennedy and Donnelly: 4 passesPolworth and Donnelly: 4 passesDennis and Findlay: 5 passesMayo and Polworth: 5 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 5 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 7 passesArmstrong and Watson: 7 passesKennedy and Watkins: 7 passesKennedy and Vassell: 7 passesWright and Mayo: 8 passesWright and Armstrong: 11 passesMayo and Findlay: 11 passesKennedy and Polworth: 12 passesDennis: 10 completed passesWright: 16 completed passesMayo: 23 completed passesFindlay: 20 completed passesArmstrong: 14 completed passesKennedy: 23 completed passesWatson: 10 completed passesPolworth: 22 completed passesDonnelly: 8 completed passesWatkins: 7 completed passesVassell: 6 completed passes145171110123122239DennisWrightMayoFindlayArmstrongKennedyWatsonPolworthDonnellyWatkinsVassellStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
RobinsonGallacher12
RobinsonKucheriavyi9
ConsidineRobinson9
KeltjensM. Smith8
KucheriavyiRobinson8

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WrightArmstrong9
FindlayMayo6
KennedyPolworth6
PolworthKennedy6
MayoWright5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Johnstone

5−1.05−2.714−1.68−1.57+0.38+0.55−0.88+0.38−0.86+0.14−0.96+2.65−0.16−0.50−4.23−0.25+3.25+2.35+0.71−0.94+2.50−1.11−0.35+2.71+0.30−0.20−0.30−0.21+0.22−5.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Kilmarnock

7+2.86−1.212+0.26−2.12−2.470.011+3.96−0.27+1.210+3.213+7.26+1.33−0.75+0.61−4.24−1.42−1.63+0.43−0.34−0.61−2.00−1.80−0.75+3.54+1.50−0.91+0.70−0.80−0.22+1.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Johnstone

0.010.040.010.010.020.010.010.040.030.020.030.020.01−0.01−0.04−0.010.010.070.070.070.090.06LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.020.010.010.010.010.030.040.010.030.050.050.05−0.020.040.01−0.160.11−0.110.070.220.160.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Johnstone0.95 → 0.93Kilmarnock1.25 → 1.30Defence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.49 → 1.54Kilmarnock1.19 → 1.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Johnstone
11th16%22%+6
Ross County
11th81%75%−6
Bottom2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (13 April 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Expected goals1.031.29
Win29%42%
Expected Points1.161.55
Clean sheet27%36%

St. Johnstone 29%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 42%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%9%8%4%1%5%7%4%2%2%2%1%10%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 13 April 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Johnstone winDrawKilmarnock win
St. Johnstone
11th16%7%15%22%
Ross County
11th81%89%81%75%
Bottom2%2%3%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. W2–16 AprHibernian (A)xG 0.62–0.95
  2. L1–230 MarDundee FC (H)xG 1.28–1.03
  3. L1–316 MarCeltic (A)xG 0.73–4.02
  4. D1–12 MarLivingston (H)xG 1.09–0.54
  5. W2–028 FebAberdeen (A)xG 1.69–2.17
  6. L0–224 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.70–0.94

Kilmarnock

  1. W1–06 AprRoss County (H)xG 0.98–0.47
  2. D1–130 MarHearts (A)xG 1.55–1.61
  3. W5–216 MarSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.91–0.74
  4. D2–22 MarDundee FC (A)xG 1.56–1.53
  5. L1–228 FebRangers (H)xG 1.36–0.73
  6. W2–024 FebAberdeen (H)xG 1.94–0.48

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Position10th4th
Played3232
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠10–⁠1512–⁠12–⁠8
Points31 (0.97 per game)48 (1.50 per game)
Expected Points per game0.931.44
Goals24–⁠4441–⁠34
xG per game0.88–⁠1.631.25–⁠1.11
Home: points, xG per game1.12, 1.01–⁠1.392.00, 1.32–⁠0.87
Away: points, xG per game0.81, 0.75–⁠1.870.93, 1.16–⁠1.37
ManagerCraig Levein (22)Derek McInnes (70)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Johnstone0.95, 11thKilmarnock1.25, 4thDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.49, 9thKilmarnock1.19, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprSt. Johnstone attack: 0.95Kilmarnock attack: 1.251.250.95KilmarnockSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprSt. Johnstone defence: 1.49Kilmarnock defence: 1.191.491.19

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−37%+19%−17%−22%
Counter-attacks−55%+24%−11%+12%
Set pieces−7%+33%+22%−8%
Penalties−69%−7%−22%−38%
Headers−1%+35%+32%−17%
Left side−38%+9%−5%−30%
Centre−20%+23%−9%−13%
Right side−45%+40%−2%−7%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−38%−7%Centre−20%−13%Right side−45%−30%Open play−37%−22%Counter-attacks−55%+12%Set pieces−7%−8%Headers−1%−17%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−5%+40%Centre−9%+23%Right side−2%+9%Open play−17%+19%Counter-attacks−11%+24%Set pieces+22%+33%Headers+32%+35%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

0.88xG1.25
1.63xG against1.11
43%Possession47%
9.2Shots12.9
14.7Shots against12.1
2.7Shots on target4.1
1.3Big chances2.1
15.0Touches in the opposition box22.5
330Passes333
65%Pass accuracy64%
3.8Corners6.2
38%Field tilt50%
26.3Final-third entries33.4
6.8Box entries12.2
16.5Passes per defensive action14.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level490.811.20
Ahead150.812.02
Behind251.052.21

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.081.06
Ahead191.241.17
Behind251.571.15

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.134–2
16–300.130.202–4
31–450.150.184–8
46–600.150.324–8
61–750.100.362–11
76–900.270.438–11

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.154–5
16–300.200.146–4
31–450.210.244–11
46–600.230.076–5
61–750.190.2211–4
76–900.280.3010–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTMitov 32McGowan 17Costelloe 4M. Smith 3Gordon 26McClelland 5Considine 21Robinson 9Keltjens 9Brown 8Olufunwa 6Phillips 15M. Smith 12Carey 6Robinson 13Kucheriavyi 6Sprangler 4Sprangler 6Phillips 5Robinson 5M. Smith 7Carey 7Kucheriavyi 5Carey 8Kane 7Sidibeh 6Clark 8Jaiyesimi 8Robinson 33-4-1-2 in 7 of 32 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-5-2 (4), 4-2-3-1 (4), 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-4-1-1 (3), 4-1-4-1 (3), 4-5-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTDennis 31O'Hara 1Mayo 20Wright 8Armstrong 2Wright 14Deas 12Mayo 9Findlay 29Ndaba 8Deas 7Watson 7Armstrong 29Mayo 2Watson 1Lyons 15Watson 12Watkins 1Polworth 14Donnelly 10Magennis 5Kennedy 20Ndaba 8Deas 2Watkins 27Kennedy 4Vassell 27Polworth 2Donnelly 24-4-2 in 12 of 32 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (12), 3-5-2 (12), 4-1-4-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 December 2023Kilmarnock2–1St. JohnstonexG 1.37–1.37
1 November 2023St. Johnstone2–1KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.30
20 May 2023Kilmarnock0–1St. JohnstonexG 1.48–1.62
18 March 2023Kilmarnock1–1St. JohnstonexG 1.31–0.57
29 October 2022St. Johnstone1–0KilmarnockxG 0.39–0.38
5 October 2022Kilmarnock2–1St. JohnstonexG 1.28–0.87

9 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 6, Kilmarnock won 2, and 1 was a draw. Goals 13–9 and xG 1.22–1.07 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sidibeh6550200.490.03
Kane7788100.390.03
Clark10888600.390.02
Jaiyesimi9708110.270.07

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong322,6906100.270.29
Kennedy252,323330.170.16
Vassell272,240820.260.06
Watson212,011520.150.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.