Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

St. Johnstone 2–1 Kilmarnock

Wednesday 1 November 2023, 19:45 · McDiarmid Park · Round 11 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Calum Scott · Attendance 2,840

St. Johnstone Clark 1', 7' · Costelloe sent off 76'

Kilmarnock Vassell 47'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Goals21
xG1.741.30
Expected Points1.701.03

St. Johnstone 48%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Final score 2–1, 12%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+3%4%3%1%8%8%3%8%8%3%4%6%4%2%1%2%1%13%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTCostelloe (St. Johnstone), red card 76'May on for Clark, 59'Brown on for Kane, 79'Phillips on for Smith, 85'Donnelly on for Lyons, 46'Dallas on for Watson, 80'Murray on for Watkins, 86'Clark 1'Clark 7'Vassell 47'St. Johnstone 1.74Kilmarnock 1.3000.511.520153045607590HTCostelloe (St. Johnstone), red card 76'May on for Clark, 59'Brown on for Kane, 79'Phillips on for Smith, 85'Donnelly on for Lyons, 46'Dallas on for Watson, 80'Murray on for Watkins, 86'Clark 1'Clark 7'Vassell 47'1.741.30St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

1.74 +1.06xG1.30 −0.04
0.92 +0.44xG on target2.16 +0.97
16 +6.7Shots23 +9.1
4 +2.1Shots on target5 +1.2
2 +1.1Big chances3 +1.3
14 −4Touches in the opposition box36 +14
37% −7Possession63% +16
231 −103Passes378 +37
55% −8Pass accuracy72% +8
31% −7Field tilt69% +19
18 −8Final-third entries47 +13
3 −4.9Box entries11 −1.6
24.2 +8Passes per defensive action14.3 −2
5 +0.6Corners12 +6.0
13 −4Tackles7 −6
7 −3.3Interceptions5 −2.3
28 +4Clearances13 −4
4 +0.1Saves2 −1.0
13 +1Fouls9 −3
0 −1.6Offsides0 −0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Johnstone

Kane 66', 0.42 xGClark 26', 0.35 xGKane 30', 0.11 xGKane 1', 0.07 xGClark 53', 0.07 xGMcGowan 66', 0.06 xGGordon 30', 0.04 xGCostelloe 45+1', 0.04 xGSmith 67', 0.04 xGCostelloe 9', 0.03 xGGordon 29', 0.02 xGMay 59', 0.02 xGClark 23', 0.01 xGSmith 73', 0.01 xGClark 1', 0.40 xG, goalClark 7', 0.06 xG, goal44%0.77 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.77 xG, 0 goals42%0.74 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.74 xG, 2 goals6%0.10 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals6%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Watkins 43', 0.15 xGFindlay 45', 0.13 xGVassell 34', 0.12 xGDonnelly 83', 0.10 xGFindlay 82', 0.09 xGVassell 40', 0.08 xGVassell 90+5', 0.08 xGPolworth 81', 0.05 xGWatson 27', 0.04 xGLyons 31', 0.04 xGWright 71', 0.04 xGDallas 84', 0.04 xGFindlay 88', 0.04 xGArmstrong 16', 0.03 xGKennedy 36', 0.03 xGWatkins 40', 0.03 xGKennedy 21', 0.02 xGWright 40', 0.02 xGArmstrong 84', 0.02 xGArmstrong 4', 0.01 xGWatkins 17', 0.01 xGLyons 44', 0.01 xGVassell 47', 0.12 xG, goal30%0.39 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.39 xG, 0 goals53%0.69 xGCentral box: 11 shots, 0.69 xG, 1 goal4%0.05 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals12%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

0.93 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.49 10 shots, 1 goal
0.82 9 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.81 13 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
1 min (1%) · St. Johnstone 0.47, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
St. Johnstone ahead
95 min (99%) · St. Johnstone 1.27, Kilmarnock 1.30 xG

Line-ups

15641944232211910MitovMcGowanGordonConsidineRobinsonCostelloeSpranglerSmithCareyKaneClarkYellow cardSent offYellow cardGoalGoal85'79'59'St. Johnstone 4-4-2Alec Cleland15174118123110239DennisMayoFindlayWrightArmstrongLyonsWatsonPolworthKennedyWatkinsVassellYellow cardYellow cardGoal46'80'86'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 59' May for Clark
  • 79' Brown for Kane
  • 85' Phillips for Smith

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Donnelly for Lyons
  • 80' Dallas for Watson
  • 86' Murray for Watkins

Players

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Mitov GK900.000.0000.0001
McGowanRB900.060.0110.0214
GordonCB900.060.0110.0826
ConsidineCB900.000.0010.03310
RobinsonLB900.000.2110.19513
Costelloe RM760.070.0100.0345
SpranglerCM900.000.0100.0323
SmithCM850.050.0730.0432
CareyLM9010.000.1430.0035
Kane ST790.600.0000.0412
ClarkST5920.890.0210.0113
MayFW310.020.0000.0110
BrownDF110.000.0000.0000
PhillipsMF50.000.0000.0201

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0210
MayoCB900.000.0200.1565
FindlayCB900.270.0310.1778
Wright CB900.060.0100.0323
ArmstrongRWB900.060.4760.3191
LyonsCM460.050.031−0.0330
Watson CM800.040.0110.0914
PolworthCM900.050.1940.21163
KennedyLWB9010.060.1030.1883
WatkinsST860.190.0000.0012
VassellST9010.400.2230.0202
DonnellyMF440.100.0100.1120
DallasFW100.040.000––0
MurrayMF40.000.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Johnstone

McGowan and Costelloe: 3 passesMcGowan and Carey: 3 passesConsidine and Clark: 3 passesSmith and Clark: 3 passesSmith and Kane: 3 passesCarey and Kane: 3 passesConsidine and Gordon: 4 passesConsidine and Sprangler: 4 passesCostelloe and Carey: 4 passesCostelloe and Clark: 4 passesCarey and Clark: 4 passesConsidine and Kane: 5 passesSprangler and Carey: 6 passesConsidine and Robinson: 8 passesCostelloe and Smith: 8 passesRobinson and Carey: 9 passesConsidine and Carey: 10 passesMitov: 2 completed passesMcGowan: 11 completed passesConsidine: 22 completed passesGordon: 8 completed passesRobinson: 11 completed passesCostelloe: 8 completed passesSprangler: 12 completed passesSmith: 11 completed passesCarey: 20 completed passesClark: 7 completed passesKane: 4 completed passes15461944232211109MitovMcGowanConsidineGordonRobinsonCostelloeSpranglerSmithCareyClarkKaneStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Mayo and Kennedy: 3 passesMayo and Lyons: 3 passesFindlay and Vassell: 3 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 3 passesKennedy and Lyons: 3 passesPolworth and Vassell: 3 passesWatkins and Vassell: 3 passesWright and Watson: 4 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 4 passesDennis and Mayo: 5 passesDennis and Findlay: 5 passesWright and Armstrong: 6 passesFindlay and Kennedy: 6 passesPolworth and Lyons: 6 passesWright and Lyons: 7 passesArmstrong and Watson: 7 passesMayo and Polworth: 8 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 8 passesWright and Mayo: 9 passesWright and Polworth: 9 passesMayo and Findlay: 10 passesKennedy and Polworth: 11 passesFindlay and Polworth: 12 passesDennis: 9 completed passesWright: 17 completed passesMayo: 24 completed passesFindlay: 19 completed passesArmstrong: 17 completed passesKennedy: 15 completed passesPolworth: 31 completed passesWatson: 7 completed passesLyons: 18 completed passesWatkins: 1 completed passesVassell: 6 completed passes14517111031128239DennisWrightMayoFindlayArmstrongKennedyPolworthWatsonLyonsWatkinsVassellStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
CareyConsidine8
SmithCostelloe7
RobinsonCarey6
ConsidineCarey6
ConsidineRobinson6

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PolworthKennedy18
KennedyPolworth16
MayoFindlay14
FindlayPolworth12
MayoPolworth12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Johnstone

7+2.18+0.315+1.27−2.715+7.88+1.34−2.810+4.76−1.75−4.96−1.22−3.03−0.73−2.78−0.22−2.61−1.73+1.42−1.12−3.71−1.01+0.20−1.610.03+0.31+0.70−0.30−0.20−0.210.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Kilmarnock

4−0.213+2.35−2.49+0.17+0.23−2.73−2.66+0.64−0.63−0.72−1.02−1.23−1.42−0.20−2.41+0.20−1.70−2.10−0.40−0.30−0.90−0.40−0.74−3.61−3.74−3.44−3.04−3.33−3.21−3.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Johnstone

0.010.010.020.010.010.020.030.010.010.01−0.010.010.030.020.020.010.050.010.020.18LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.030.010.010.010.020.010.070.060.020.120.060.020.010.070.10−0.030.040.050.05−0.040.060.240.26LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Johnstone0.94 → 0.96Kilmarnock1.19 → 1.19Defence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.50 → 1.48Kilmarnock1.31 → 1.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Johnstone
Top six3%6%+3
11th21%21%0
Bottom50%40%−10
Kilmarnock
Top six63%54%−9
11th3%5%+2
Bottom1%2%+1
Ross County
Top six17%17%0
11th19%18%−1
Bottom14%16%+2
Livingston
Top six18%18%0
11th18%18%0
Bottom12%15%+3

From the forecast before the match (1 November 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Expected goals1.141.24
Win33%38%
Expected Points1.281.43
Clean sheet29%32%

St. Johnstone 33%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 49%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+7%3%8%3%1%6%7%5%2%2%3%2%10%11%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 November 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Johnstone winDrawKilmarnock win
St. Johnstone
Top six3%6%2%2%
11th21%21%21%20%
Bottom50%40%53%57%
Kilmarnock
Top six63%54%62%73%
11th3%5%3%2%
Bottom1%2%1%1%
Ross County
Top six17%17%18%16%
11th19%18%18%21%
Bottom14%16%14%12%
Livingston
Top six18%18%17%17%
11th18%18%17%19%
Bottom12%15%12%11%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. L0–428 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.74–1.52
  2. D0–08 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.33–1.01
  3. D1–130 SepLivingston (H)xG 0.62–0.98
  4. L0–223 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.62–2.78
  5. L0–216 SepRangers (H)xG 0.32–2.02
  6. D2–22 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.75–1.44

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–029 OctAberdeen (H)xG 1.85–0.29
  2. W3–121 OctLivingston (H)xG 1.21–1.13
  3. L1–37 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.54–2.75
  4. D1–130 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.73–0.79
  5. D2–223 SepDundee FC (A)xG 3.56–1.49
  6. D2–216 SepHibernian (H)xG 0.83–0.92

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Position12th4th
Played910
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠4–⁠53–⁠4–⁠3
Points4 (0.44 per game)13 (1.30 per game)
Expected Points per game0.611.44
Goals3–⁠1513–⁠12
xG per game0.68–⁠1.791.34–⁠1.20
Home: points, xG per game0.50, 0.91–⁠1.551.83, 1.09–⁠0.87
Away: points, xG per game0.40, 0.49–⁠1.990.50, 1.72–⁠1.70
ManagerAlec Cleland (0)Derek McInnes (48)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Johnstone0.94, 12thKilmarnock1.19, 5thDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.50, 11thKilmarnock1.31, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctSt. Johnstone attack: 0.94Kilmarnock attack: 1.191.190.94KilmarnockSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctSt. Johnstone defence: 1.50Kilmarnock defence: 1.311.501.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−48%+40%−9%−30%
Counter-attacks−82%+193%−33%+1%
Set pieces−24%+8%+28%+26%
Penalties−100%−32%+22%+22%
Headers−26%−9%+50%−39%
Left side−30%+24%+18%−64%
Centre−48%+27%−15%−4%
Right side−47%+97%+9%+26%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−30%+26%Centre−48%−4%Right side−47%−64%Open play−48%−30%Counter-attacks−82%+1%Set pieces−24%+26%Headers−26%−39%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side+18%+97%Centre−15%+27%Right side+9%+24%Open play−9%+40%Counter-attacks−33%+193%Set pieces+28%+8%Headers+50%−9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

0.68xG1.34
1.79xG against1.20
44%Possession46%
9.3Shots13.9
14.4Shots against11.6
1.9Shots on target3.8
0.9Big chances1.7
18.4Touches in the opposition box21.8
334Passes341
64%Pass accuracy64%
4.4Corners6.0
38%Field tilt50%
25.8Final-third entries34.2
7.9Box entries12.6
15.9Passes per defensive action16.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level540.521.28
Ahead20.643.39
Behind340.922.51

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level501.110.96
Ahead201.151.44
Behind192.181.57

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.090–0
16–300.060.230–1
31–450.060.171–4
46–600.080.390–4
61–750.110.330–3
76–900.230.582–3

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.121–1
16–300.280.173–2
31–450.230.212–3
46–600.180.101–3
61–750.260.134–0
76–900.300.472–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTMitov 9Olufunwa 4Brown 2Wright 2Gordon 5McClelland 5Considine 6Robinson 2Robinson 5Considine 1Sprangler 1Sprangler 3Turner-Cooke 2McGowan 2Costelloe 3Wright 2Smith 1Phillips 6Kucheriavyi 4Ballantyne 2Smith 5MacPherson 1Carey 6Costelloe 1Jaiyesimi 1May 4Costelloe 2Jephcott 24-1-4-1 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (3), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 10Mayo 9Wright 6Deas 6Findlay 9Armstrong 9Mayo 1Watson 7Watkins 1Armstrong 1Lyons 10Deas 1Magennis 7Polworth 2Kennedy 1Ndaba 5Kennedy 4Davies 1Vassell 7Kennedy 4Watkins 7Findlay 1Cameron 13-5-2 in 6 of 10 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (6), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
20 May 2023Kilmarnock0–1St. JohnstonexG 1.48–1.62
18 March 2023Kilmarnock1–1St. JohnstonexG 1.31–0.57
29 October 2022St. Johnstone1–0KilmarnockxG 0.39–0.38
5 October 2022Kilmarnock2–1St. JohnstonexG 1.28–0.87
30 January 2021Kilmarnock2–3St. JohnstonexG 1.17–2.14
6 November 2020St. Johnstone1–0KilmarnockxG 0.61–0.46

7 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 5, Kilmarnock won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 10–6 and xG 1.12–0.99 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Carey8720010.020.19
Gordon6489000.150.01
Costelloe6498100.090.03
McClelland5525000.080.01

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong10873340.360.39
Vassell7663400.380.07
Kennedy9817000.190.19
Watson7676110.110.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.