Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 0–1 St. Johnstone

Saturday 20 May 2023, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 36 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 6,004

Kilmarnock Watson sent off 44'

St. Johnstone Gordon 11'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Goals01
xG1.481.62
Expected Points1.251.43

Kilmarnock 31%Draw 32%St. Johnstone 37%

Most likely score 1–1, 20%. Final score 0–1, 1%.

St. Johnstone goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+1%1%8%8%2%5%11%10%5%1%1%3%2%1%20%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTWatson (Kilmarnock), red card 44'Power on for Donnelly, 49'Lyons on for Dorsett, 62'Jones on for McKenzie and Cameron on for Doidge, 78'Rudden on for May, 76'Wotherspoon on for Ballantyne, 87'Gordon 11'St. Johnstone 1.62Kilmarnock 1.4800.511.520153045607590HTWatson (Kilmarnock), red card 44'Power on for Donnelly, 49'Lyons on for Dorsett, 62'Jones on for McKenzie and Cameron on for Doidge, 78'Rudden on for May, 76'Wotherspoon on for Ballantyne, 87'Gordon 11'1.621.48KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

1.48 +0.40xG1.62 +0.72
0.06 −0.78xG on target2.19 +1.30
10 −2Shots17 +6
1 −2.2Shots on target7 +3.8
1 −0.5Big chances3 +1.7
54% +10Possession46% +3
357 +36Passes296 −28
65% +1Pass accuracy58% −7
44% −1Field tilt56% +16
42 +9Final-third entries36 +7
11 +1.8Box entries13 +4.8
11.4 −3Passes per defensive action13.2 −4
3 −1.2Corners8 +3.9
14 −3Tackles18 +2
9 −2Interceptions12 +2
34 +14Clearances14 −10
6 +2.8Saves1 −1.7
10 −2Fouls11 0
1 −0.8Offsides3 +1.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Watson 32', 0.92 xGCameron 90+5', 0.19 xGVassell 31', 0.07 xGDonnelly 43', 0.07 xGWright 72', 0.07 xGChambers 32', 0.04 xGDoidge 57', 0.04 xGJones 84', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 63', 0.03 xGDoidge 29', 0.02 xG80%1.18 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.18 xG, 0 goals9%0.13 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals7%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals4%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Johnstone

Rudden 90+3', 0.48 xGCarey 50', 0.17 xGMacPherson 46', 0.13 xGMacPherson 81', 0.12 xGBallantyne 81', 0.10 xGWright 77', 0.08 xGWright 70', 0.07 xGCarey 90+2', 0.07 xGWright 7', 0.06 xGMontgomery 69', 0.05 xGMay 8', 0.04 xGMay 45+2', 0.04 xGCarey 59', 0.03 xGMay 59', 0.03 xGMontgomery 75', 0.02 xGRudden 90+4', 0.02 xGGordon 11', 0.12 xG, goal7%0.12 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.12 xG, 1 goal64%1.04 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.04 xG, 0 goals19%0.30 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals6%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals4%0.06 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

1.23 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.28 13 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.10 1 shot, 0 goals
0.25 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.24 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
11 min (11%) · Kilmarnock 0.00, St. Johnstone 0.21 xG
St. Johnstone ahead
86 min (89%) · Kilmarnock 1.48, St. Johnstone 1.41 xG

Line-ups

2021931134242272623WalkerMayoWrightDorsettArmstrongWatsonChambersDonnellyMcKenzieDoidgeVassellSent offYellow card62'49'78'78'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes12641913141825237MatthewsBrownGordonConsidineMontgomeryMcGowanWrightMacPhersonBallantyneCareyMayYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow card87'76'St. Johnstone 4-1-4-1Steven MacLean

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 49' Power for Donnelly
  • 62' Lyons for Dorsett
  • 78' Cameron for Doidge
  • 78' Jones for McKenzie

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 76' Rudden for May
  • 87' Wotherspoon for Ballantyne

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0500.16113
MayoCB900.000.0500.01109
WrightCB900.070.1100.11517
DorsettCB620.000.0110.0223
ArmstrongRWB900.000.3330.1693
Watson CM440.920.020−0.0103
ChambersCM900.040.0500.1572
DonnellyCM490.070.0100.0425
McKenzieLWB780.030.0210.0324
Doidge ST780.060.051−0.0122
VassellST900.070.012−0.0522
PowerMF410.000.0100.0554
LyonsMF280.000.0000.0126
CameronFW120.190.0400.0400
JonesMF120.040.0000.0210

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Matthews GK900.000.0000.0221
BrownRB900.000.0620.15104
GordonCB9010.120.031−0.0106
ConsidineCB900.000.0000.0448
Montgomery LB900.070.0100.0873
McGowanDM900.000.1610.2668
WrightRM900.210.1010.0773
MacPhersonCM900.250.0510.0657
Ballantyne CM870.100.1110.1032
CareyLM9010.270.4640.1472
MayST760.100.122−0.0501
RuddenFW140.500.0100.0300
WotherspoonMF30.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Walker and Dorsett: 3 passesMayo and Armstrong: 3 passesMayo and Vassell: 3 passesDoidge and Vassell: 3 passesWright and Armstrong: 4 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 4 passesMcKenzie and Donnelly: 4 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 5 passesDorsett and Donnelly: 6 passesArmstrong and Watson: 6 passesChambers and Donnelly: 6 passesDorsett and Chambers: 7 passesArmstrong and Doidge: 7 passesWright and Mayo: 8 passesMcKenzie and Chambers: 8 passesWright and Donnelly: 9 passesDorsett and McKenzie: 9 passesWright and Dorsett: 13 passesWalker: 6 completed passesWright: 22 completed passesDorsett: 25 completed passesMayo: 16 completed passesArmstrong: 16 completed passesMcKenzie: 13 completed passesChambers: 15 completed passesWatson: 5 completed passesDonnelly: 18 completed passesDoidge: 7 completed passesVassell: 5 completed passes2019321172434222623WalkerWrightDorsettMayoArmstrongMcKenzieChambersWatsonDonnellyDoidgeVassellStarters until 44' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Johnstone

Matthews and Montgomery: 3 passesMatthews and Carey: 3 passesConsidine and Montgomery: 3 passesConsidine and Wright: 3 passesMcGowan and May: 3 passesWright and Ballantyne: 3 passesWright and Carey: 3 passesWright and May: 3 passesMacPherson and Carey: 3 passesBrown and Montgomery: 5 passesBrown and May: 5 passesMcGowan and Carey: 5 passesMontgomery and Ballantyne: 6 passesConsidine and Carey: 7 passesWright and MacPherson: 7 passesBrown and MacPherson: 8 passesBallantyne and Carey: 8 passesCarey and May: 8 passesMontgomery and Carey: 11 passesBrown and Wright: 13 passesMatthews: 7 completed passesBrown: 22 completed passesConsidine: 12 completed passesGordon: 6 completed passesMontgomery: 18 completed passesMcGowan: 10 completed passesWright: 11 completed passesBallantyne: 12 completed passesMacPherson: 18 completed passesCarey: 19 completed passesMay: 11 completed passes12461913142518237MatthewsBrownConsidineGordonMontgomeryMcGowanWrightBallantyneMacPhersonCareyMayStarters until 76' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
ChambersVassell8
DorsettWright7
ArmstrongDoidge7
WrightMayo6
WrightDorsett6

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
MontgomeryCarey8
ConsidineCarey7
WrightBrown7
MacPhersonWright7
MayCarey6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

6+0.912+4.917+3.412+4.96+1.310+2.64−3.89+3.26−0.97−0.911+4.27+1.01−2.82−3.73−1.93−2.28+3.66+3.64+0.32−2.21−1.61−1.02+1.02+0.21−1.62+0.71+0.10−0.82+1.60−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 35 matches

St. Johnstone

8−0.16−2.38+2.27+1.312+2.87−1.310+4.23−1.85+2.07+2.08+1.85+1.23−0.64+1.71−1.97+2.91−1.83+1.51+0.40−1.01−1.50−0.71+0.70−0.50−0.41+0.42−4.210−4.65−3.94−3.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 35 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.060.020.010.020.010.030.050.010.090.07−0.010.040.020.03−0.030.040.06−0.01−0.220.050.120.110.14LessMore

St. Johnstone

0.010.010.020.020.020.030.040.010.030.040.060.140.030.030.060.02−0.010.100.010.05−0.120.06−0.020.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackKilmarnock1.06 → 1.06St. Johnstone0.92 → 0.94Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.34 → 1.35St. Johnstone1.36 → 1.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th21%32%+11
Bottom10%24%+14
St. Johnstone
11th14%<1%−14
Bottom2%–−2
Dundee United
11th22%28%+6
Bottom69%60%−9
Ross County
11th43%40%−3
Bottom19%16%−3

From the forecast before the match (20 May 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Expected goals1.400.89
Win48%23%
Expected Points1.740.98
Clean sheet41%25%

Kilmarnock 48%Draw 28%St. Johnstone 23%

Most likely score 1–0, 14%. Both sides score 45%.

St. Johnstone goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%6%2%9%4%1%5%4%2%2%1%11%14%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 20 May 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Johnstone win
Kilmarnock
11th21%11%27%32%
Bottom10%3%11%24%
St. Johnstone
11th14%25%8%<1%
Bottom2%5%<1%–
Dundee United
11th22%20%21%28%
Bottom69%73%70%60%
Ross County
11th43%44%44%40%
Bottom19%20%18%16%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–013 MayLivingston (H)xG 1.75–0.32
  2. L0–26 MayMotherwell (A)xG 0.43–1.67
  3. W2–022 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.32–0.51
  4. L1–416 AprCeltic (H)xG 1.73–2.56
  5. L0–28 AprAberdeen (A)xG 1.09–2.20
  6. W2–11 AprHearts (H)xG 2.72–0.68

St. Johnstone

  1. L0–213 MayMotherwell (H)xG 0.75–1.53
  2. W1–06 MayDundee United (H)xG 1.12–1.26
  3. D1–122 AprHibernian (H)xG 0.84–0.45
  4. L0–215 AprLivingston (A)xG 1.13–0.72
  5. L0–28 AprRoss County (H)xG 0.86–0.91
  6. L0–11 AprAberdeen (H)xG 0.82–1.00

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Position10th9th
Played3535
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠7–⁠1910–⁠6–⁠19
Points34 (0.97 per game)36 (1.03 per game)
Expected Points per game1.201.11
Goals31–⁠6035–⁠56
xG per game1.08–⁠1.400.90–⁠1.27
Home: points, xG per game1.71, 1.40–⁠1.100.89, 0.92–⁠1.14
Away: points, xG per game0.28, 0.77–⁠1.681.18, 0.88–⁠1.41
ManagerDerek McInnes (35)Steven MacLean (3)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackKilmarnock1.06, 7thSt. Johnstone0.92, 11thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.34, 7thSt. Johnstone1.36, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayKilmarnock attack: 1.06St. Johnstone attack: 0.921.060.92St. JohnstoneKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayKilmarnock defence: 1.34St. Johnstone defence: 1.361.361.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−26%+4%−30%+10%
Counter-attacks−52%+2%−59%−77%
Set pieces+27%+18%−29%−13%
Penalties−56%−13%−42%−42%
Headers+11%−21%−36%−6%
Left side+1%−7%−30%+11%
Centre−23%+15%−30%−7%
Right side−13%+11%−32%+1%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side+1%+1%Centre−23%−7%Right side−13%+11%Open play−26%+10%Counter-attacks−52%−77%Set pieces+27%−13%Headers+11%−6%

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−30%+11%Centre−30%+15%Right side−32%−7%Open play−30%+4%Counter-attacks−59%+2%Set pieces−29%+18%Headers−36%−21%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

1.08xG0.90
1.40xG against1.27
44%Possession43%
11.6Shots10.5
12.7Shots against13.8
3.2Shots on target3.2
1.5Big chances1.3
19.6Touches in the opposition box16.1
321Passes324
64%Pass accuracy65%
4.2Corners4.1
44%Field tilt41%
33.2Final-third entries28.6
9.2Box entries8.2
14.5Passes per defensive action17.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level301.201.07
Ahead201.231.09
Behind400.921.79

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level400.791.20
Ahead170.730.98
Behind321.131.51

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.203–14
16–300.180.275–14
31–450.220.218–7
46–600.280.217–7
61–750.140.185–8
76–900.150.343–10

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.244–7
16–300.120.155–7
31–450.150.235–15
46–600.150.193–6
61–750.150.208–6
76–900.240.2610–15

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 25Hemming 10Mayo 16Alebiosu 11Armstrong 4Wright 22Taylor 22Mayo 10Dorsett 8Chambers 7Chrisene 7McInroy 6Armstrong 17McKenzie 5Jones 3Polworth 12Watson 7Armstrong 4Power 23Donnelly 11Alston 4McKenzie 15Jones 8Taylor 3Doidge 18Lafferty 8Cameron 5Vassell 11Robinson 6Shaw 54-4-2 in 10 of 35 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (10), 3-5-2 (6), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-5-1-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1)

St. Johnstone

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMatthews 33Parish 2Wright 27Brown 5Carey 2Mitchell 24McGowan 15Gordon 26Phillips 3Wright 1Considine 30Brown 5Montgo… 18MontgomeryBrown 6Carey 3Carey 15Wright 6Montgomery 5Hallberg 27Phillips 13McGowan 9MacPherson 14Wotherspoon 4Murphy 3May 27Bair 6Rudden 2Clark 18Murphy 10McLennan 65-3-2 in 10 of 35 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (10), 3-4-1-2 (8), 3-4-2-1 (6), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-1-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 5-4-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 March 2023Kilmarnock1–1St. JohnstonexG 1.31–0.57
29 October 2022St. Johnstone1–0KilmarnockxG 0.39–0.38
5 October 2022Kilmarnock2–1St. JohnstonexG 1.28–0.87
30 January 2021Kilmarnock2–3St. JohnstonexG 1.17–2.14
6 November 2020St. Johnstone1–0KilmarnockxG 0.61–0.46
15 August 2020Kilmarnock1–2St. JohnstonexG 0.86–1.65

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, St. Johnstone won 4, and 1 was a draw. Goals 6–9 and xG 0.91–1.04 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong282,498860.240.22
Vassell11912120.300.14
Robinson6619200.240.07
Shaw7628000.250.02

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
May272,395760.210.12
Clark191,486420.250.05
Carey211,775310.210.08
McLennan7976110.170.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.