Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 2–1 St. Johnstone

Saturday 23 December 2023, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 19 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 5,074

Kilmarnock Watson 6', Watkins 17'

St. Johnstone Clark 61'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Goals21
xG1.371.37
Expected Points1.321.36

Kilmarnock 34%Draw 31%St. Johnstone 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 2–1, 11%.

St. Johnstone goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+4%8%6%2%6%12%3%4%11%9%2%2%4%3%1%1%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTMcKenzie on for Polworth, 83'Dallas on for Watkins, 90+4'Clark on for Phillips, 57'Costelloe on for Kane and Brown on for Franczak, 74'May on for Smith, 90+2'Watson 6'Watkins 17'Clark 61'Kilmarnock 1.37St. Johnstone 1.3700.511.50153045607590HTMcKenzie on for Polworth, 83'Dallas on for Watkins, 90+4'Clark on for Phillips, 57'Costelloe on for Kane and Brown on for Franczak, 74'May on for Smith, 90+2'Watson 6'Watkins 17'Clark 61'1.371.37KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

1.37 +0.12xG1.37 +0.48
0.93 −0.24xG on target0.69 −0.12
14 −0.1Shots9 −0.6
5 +1.3Shots on target4 +1.4
1 −0.8Big chances2 +0.9
18 −6Touches in the opposition box18 +1
46% −1Possession54% +12
384 +49Passes456 +135
62% −2Pass accuracy67% +2
51% 0Field tilt49% +11
27 −7Final-third entries32 +7
11 −1.2Box entries11 +3.8
18.8 +4Passes per defensive action19.0 +2
5 −1.7Corners1 −2.9
11 −1Tackles17 0
6 −0.9Interceptions8 −1.7
20 +2Clearances15 −11
3 +0.2Saves3 −0.8
12 0Fouls8 −4
1 −0.2Offsides2 +0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Vassell 23', 0.50 xGFindlay 85', 0.16 xGLyons 4', 0.10 xGWatson 10', 0.10 xGPolworth 21', 0.09 xGDeas 58', 0.07 xGNdaba 21', 0.05 xGVassell 41', 0.05 xGVassell 27', 0.04 xGPolworth 65', 0.04 xGLyons 90+6', 0.03 xGPolworth 16', 0.02 xGWatkins 17', 0.10 xG, goalWatson 6', 0.03 xG, goal48%0.66 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.66 xG, 0 goals41%0.56 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.56 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals9%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 1 goal3%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

St. Johnstone

Gallacher 73', 0.58 xGClark 79', 0.09 xGSmith 28', 0.08 xGKucheriavyi 25', 0.05 xGFranczak 33', 0.05 xGSmith 80', 0.05 xGClark 72', 0.04 xGSmith 80', 0.02 xGClark 61', 0.41 xG, goal30%0.41 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.41 xG, 1 goal52%0.72 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.72 xG, 0 goals7%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals11%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

1.10 11 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.91 7 shots, 0 goals
0.27 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.46 2 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
6 min (6%) · Kilmarnock 0.13, St. Johnstone 0.00 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
90 min (94%) · Kilmarnock 1.25, St. Johnstone 1.37 xG

Line-ups

1561711311283239DennisMayoDeasFindlayArmstrongPolworthWatsonLyonsNdabaWatkinsVassellGoalGoal83'90+4'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes15619461534223119MitovMcGowanGordonRobinsonFranczakKucheriavyiPhillipsSmithGallacherCareyKaneYellow card74'57'90+2'74'St. Johnstone 3-5-2Craig Levein

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 83' McKenzie for Polworth
  • 90+4' Dallas for Watkins

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 57' Clark for Phillips · goal 61'
  • 74' Brown for Franczak
  • 74' Costelloe for Kane
  • 90+2' May for Smith

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0341
MayoCB900.000.0000.0233
DeasCB900.070.0000.1646
FindlayCB900.160.0000.0349
ArmstrongRWB9020.000.2540.14113
PolworthCM830.150.0510.1033
WatsonCM9010.130.0400.0235
LyonsCM900.130.4730.2372
NdabaLWB900.050.1720.2974
WatkinsST9010.100.0310.0732
VassellST900.590.000−0.0302
McKenzieMF70.000.000−0.0110
DallasFW00.000.0000.0000

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Mitov GK900.000.0000.0320
McGowanCB900.000.0810.19810
GordonCB900.000.0100.0659
RobinsonCB900.000.0100.0565
FranczakRWB740.050.3920.2032
KucheriavyiCM900.050.0300.1046
PhillipsCM570.000.0000.0125
SmithCM9010.150.2420.1030
GallacherLWB900.580.010−0.0142
CareyST900.000.0510.0872
KaneST740.000.010−0.0211
ClarkMF3310.540.000−0.0700
BrownDF160.000.0100.0121
CostelloeFW160.000.0000.0110
MayFW00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Deas and Lyons: 5 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 5 passesNdaba and Lyons: 5 passesWatson and Lyons: 5 passesDennis and Deas: 6 passesMayo and Armstrong: 6 passesNdaba and Watson: 6 passesNdaba and Vassell: 6 passesDennis and Lyons: 7 passesPolworth and Lyons: 7 passesDennis and Findlay: 8 passesDeas and Polworth: 8 passesPolworth and Watson: 8 passesFindlay and Polworth: 9 passesNdaba and Watkins: 9 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 11 passesDeas and Mayo: 12 passesArmstrong and Watson: 12 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 12 passesNdaba and Polworth: 12 passesMayo and Lyons: 13 passesDeas and Findlay: 18 passesDennis: 18 completed passesDeas: 29 completed passesMayo: 23 completed passesFindlay: 27 completed passesArmstrong: 25 completed passesNdaba: 25 completed passesPolworth: 33 completed passesWatson: 17 completed passesLyons: 32 completed passesWatkins: 12 completed passesVassell: 8 completed passes1651711331128239DennisDeasMayoFindlayArmstrongNdabaPolworthWatsonLyonsWatkinsVassellStarters until 83' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

St. Johnstone

Robinson and Kane: 4 passesFranczak and Smith: 4 passesFranczak and Carey: 4 passesGallacher and Carey: 4 passesGallacher and Kane: 4 passesKucheriavyi and Smith: 4 passesSmith and Kane: 4 passesMitov and Gordon: 5 passesMcGowan and Carey: 5 passesGordon and Franczak: 5 passesGordon and Kucheriavyi: 5 passesMitov and Robinson: 6 passesMcGowan and Phillips: 6 passesGordon and Phillips: 6 passesPhillips and Kucheriavyi: 6 passesMcGowan and Gordon: 7 passesPhillips and Carey: 7 passesRobinson and Phillips: 8 passesKucheriavyi and Carey: 8 passesFranczak and Kucheriavyi: 9 passesGallacher and Smith: 9 passesMcGowan and Franczak: 11 passesGordon and Robinson: 16 passesRobinson and Gallacher: 16 passesRobinson and Smith: 17 passesMitov: 9 completed passesMcGowan: 22 completed passesGordon: 30 completed passesRobinson: 40 completed passesFranczak: 17 completed passesGallacher: 20 completed passesPhillips: 23 completed passesKucheriavyi: 22 completed passesSmith: 23 completed passesCarey: 13 completed passesKane: 9 completed passes15619463341522119MitovMcGowanGordonRobinsonFranczakGallacherPhillipsKucheriavyiSmithCareyKaneStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
FindlayDeas9
DeasFindlay9
DeasMayo7
LyonsMayo7
PolworthNdaba7

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
RobinsonGallacher14
RobinsonGordon10
SmithRobinson10
GordonRobinson8
GordonMcGowan8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

5+0.45−1.512+0.66−1.15+0.86−0.62−5.46+0.22−4.17+0.56+0.36+0.77+3.42−2.64−1.37+1.710+6.84+1.21−2.71−3.90−3.13+0.90−0.80−1.91−1.31+0.31+0.72+1.11+0.80−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

St. Johnstone

7+1.44−4.17−2.88+0.46−0.29+1.96−2.36−2.95−1.31−3.98+4.66+0.89+2.57+3.25+1.85+3.43+0.35+0.40−2.01−0.20−1.50−1.11−1.11+0.50−0.20−0.20−0.21+0.29−5.41−5.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.030.010.060.040.060.020.010.030.050.01−0.020.010.030.110.040.210.24LessMore

St. Johnstone

0.010.030.010.020.040.020.060.05−0.010.020.080.040.100.03−0.02−0.010.12−0.05−0.020.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackKilmarnock1.15 → 1.15St. Johnstone0.96 → 0.97Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.24 → 1.24St. Johnstone1.43 → 1.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six71%80%+9
11th1%1%0
Bottom<1%<1%0
St. Johnstone
Top six7%4%−3
11th20%22%+2
Bottom16%20%+4
Livingston
Top six1%1%0
11th23%24%+1
Bottom43%41%−2
St. Mirren
Top six53%52%−1
11th3%2%−1
Bottom1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (23 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Expected goals1.550.84
Win53%20%
Expected Points1.870.86
Clean sheet43%21%

Kilmarnock 53%Draw 27%St. Johnstone 20%

Most likely score 1–0, 14%. Both sides score 45%.

St. Johnstone goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%3%5%1%9%4%1%6%5%2%2%2%10%14%13%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Johnstone win
Kilmarnock
Top six71%80%66%57%
11th1%1%2%3%
Bottom<1%<1%<1%1%
St. Johnstone
Top six7%4%8%16%
11th20%22%21%15%
Bottom16%20%15%9%
Livingston
Top six1%1%1%2%
11th23%24%21%22%
Bottom43%41%44%46%
St. Mirren
Top six53%52%55%55%
11th3%2%3%3%
Bottom1%1%<1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. D0–016 DecLivingston (A)xG 0.88–1.14
  2. W2–110 DecCeltic (H)xG 2.06–1.68
  3. W1–06 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.64–1.14
  4. L0–12 DecHearts (H)xG 1.16–0.73
  5. D0–025 NovRoss County (A)xG 0.65–0.88
  6. L0–111 NovHibernian (A)xG 0.46–0.41

St. Johnstone

  1. L0–220 DecRangers (A)xG 0.09–3.14
  2. W1–016 DecHibernian (H)xG 0.94–0.10
  3. D1–19 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.33–1.21
  4. W1–06 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.98–1.93
  5. L1–33 DecCeltic (H)xG 1.36–2.53
  6. L0–125 NovHearts (A)xG 0.85–1.44

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Position5th9th
Played1818
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠6–⁠64–⁠6–⁠8
Points24 (1.33 per game)18 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.410.88
Goals18–⁠1712–⁠25
xG per game1.25–⁠1.130.89–⁠1.70
Home: points, xG per game1.89, 1.30–⁠0.911.50, 1.13–⁠1.49
Away: points, xG per game0.78, 1.20–⁠1.340.38, 0.59–⁠1.96
ManagerDerek McInnes (56)Craig Levein (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackKilmarnock1.15, 6thSt. Johnstone0.96, 12thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.24, 3rdSt. Johnstone1.43, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock attack: 1.15St. Johnstone attack: 0.961.150.96St. JohnstoneKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock defence: 1.24St. Johnstone defence: 1.431.431.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%−28%−36%+30%
Counter-attacks−23%−25%−89%+108%
Set pieces+26%+7%−2%+16%
Penalties−38%−6%−69%−38%
Headers+41%−22%−2%+24%
Left side+9%−38%−41%+16%
Centre−19%−16%−20%+31%
Right side+12%−3%−44%+51%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side+9%+51%Centre−19%+31%Right side+12%+16%Open play−15%+30%Counter-attacks−23%+108%Set pieces+26%+16%Headers+41%+24%

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−41%−3%Centre−20%−16%Right side−44%−38%Open play−36%−28%Counter-attacks−89%−25%Set pieces−2%+7%Headers−2%−22%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

1.25xG0.89
1.13xG against1.70
47%Possession42%
14.1Shots9.6
12.1Shots against15.3
3.7Shots on target2.6
1.8Big chances1.1
24.4Touches in the opposition box16.7
335Passes321
64%Pass accuracy65%
6.7Corners3.9
51%Field tilt38%
33.9Final-third entries25.3
12.2Box entries7.2
14.4Passes per defensive action17.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level511.091.07
Ahead141.171.31
Behind251.641.14

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level520.911.18
Ahead160.891.90
Behind220.842.77

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.161–3
16–300.210.173–3
31–450.240.182–5
46–600.230.083–3
61–750.170.175–0
76–900.300.364–3

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.102–0
16–300.170.212–2
31–450.130.192–4
46–600.100.302–5
61–750.110.421–7
76–900.270.483–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 18Mayo 17Deas 10Wright 10Findlay 17Armstrong 17Mayo 1Watson 14Watkins 1Armstrong 1Lyons 17Donnelly 5Deas 2Magennis 7Polworth 5Kennedy 1Ndaba 8Kennedy 8Deas 1Watkins 14Kennedy 4Vassell 13Findlay 1Polworth 13-5-2 in 10 of 18 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (10), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

St. Johnstone

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTMitov 18McGowan 6Costelloe 4Wright 2Gordon 15McClelland 5Considine 12Robinson 5Brown 7Olufunwa 4Franczak 2Phillips 8Kucheriavyi 4Sprangler 3Smith 6Robinson 6Carey 4Phillips 5Sprangler 3Gallacher 3Smith 5Kucheriavyi 4Carey 3Kane 6May 5Costelloe 3Carey 6Jaiyesimi 5Clark 43-4-1-2 in 6 of 18 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (6), 4-4-1-1 (3), 4-1-4-1 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 November 2023St. Johnstone2–1KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.30
20 May 2023Kilmarnock0–1St. JohnstonexG 1.48–1.62
18 March 2023Kilmarnock1–1St. JohnstonexG 1.31–0.57
29 October 2022St. Johnstone1–0KilmarnockxG 0.39–0.38
5 October 2022Kilmarnock2–1St. JohnstonexG 1.28–0.87
30 January 2021Kilmarnock2–3St. JohnstonexG 1.17–2.14

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, St. Johnstone won 6, and 1 was a draw. Goals 7–12 and xG 1.03–1.20 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong181,587350.270.35
Vassell131,149500.310.07
Kennedy131,238120.170.19
Watson141,283220.120.11

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kane6704100.440.03
Kucheriavyi9761200.200.09
Carey151,358220.050.17
May5571010.100.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.