Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Ross County 2–2 Hearts

Sunday 29 December 2024, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 20 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Ross Hardie · Attendance 4,994

Ross County Nisbet 90+7', White 90+9'

Hearts Wilson 2', 48'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyHearts
Goals22
xG1.401.06
Expected Points1.661.00

Ross County 44%Draw 34%Hearts 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 24%. Final score 2–2, 7%.

Hearts goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+2%3%1%17%12%3%9%11%7%2%2%3%1%24%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTWhite on for Leak, 46'Brown on for Grieves, 59'Brophy on for Hale and Allardice on for Randall, 72'Forrest on for Drammeh, 75'Vargas on for Wilson and Boateng on for Grant, 85'Halkett on for Forrester, 90+4'Nisbet 90+7'White 90+9'Wilson 2'Wilson 48'Ross County 1.40Hearts 1.0600.511.50153045607590HTWhite on for Leak, 46'Brown on for Grieves, 59'Brophy on for Hale and Allardice on for Randall, 72'Forrest on for Drammeh, 75'Vargas on for Wilson and Boateng on for Grant, 85'Halkett on for Forrester, 90+4'Nisbet 90+7'White 90+9'Wilson 2'Wilson 48'1.401.06Ross CountyHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyHearts

1.40 +0.43xG1.06 −0.07
1.70 +0.84xG on target1.71 +0.71
14 +3Shots10 −3
4 +0.8Shots on target4 +0.4
1 −0.2Big chances5 +3.1
18 +2Touches in the opposition box13 −13
49% +9Possession51% −4
312 +16Passes329 −130
58% −8Pass accuracy67% −11
46% +9Field tilt55% −3
27 −3Final-third entries26 −19
5 −2.3Box entries9 −3.1
16.1 −1Passes per defensive action9.0 −4
10 +5.5Corners5 −1.4
13 −3Tackles13 −6
11 +0.5Interceptions9 −0.3
25 −11Clearances40 +18
2 −0.8Saves2 −0.5
9 −1Fouls13 +2
1 0.0Offsides2 +0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Leak 34', 0.09 xGHale 45+5', 0.08 xGGrieves 19', 0.05 xGHale 45+5', 0.04 xGBrophy 90+6', 0.04 xGNisbet 34', 0.03 xGWhite 51', 0.03 xGRandall 30', 0.02 xGHale 35', 0.02 xGAllardice 78', 0.02 xGAllardice 90', 0.02 xGChilvers 51', 0.01 xGWhite 90+9', 0.89 xG, goalNisbet 90+7', 0.06 xG, goal64%0.89 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.89 xG, 1 goal27%0.38 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.38 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals9%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Forrest 76', 0.20 xGWilson 15', 0.16 xGBoyce 58', 0.11 xGSpittal 83', 0.06 xGSpittal 56', 0.04 xGBoyce 37', 0.03 xGSpittal 56', 0.02 xGDrammeh 60', 0.01 xGWilson 2', 0.21 xG, goalWilson 48', 0.21 xG, goal50%0.53 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.53 xG, 1 goal37%0.40 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.40 xG, 1 goal2%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals10%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyHearts

0.27 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.91 6 shots, 2 goals
1.12 7 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.16 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
3 min (3%) · Ross County 0.00, Hearts 0.21 xG
Hearts ahead
102 min (97%) · Ross County 1.40, Hearts 0.86 xG

Line-ups

184203241481016239AmissahWrightLopataLeakEfeteGrievesRandallChilversHarmonNisbetHaleGoal46'59'72'72'Ross County 3-5-1-1Don Cowie135515297637271621GordonForresterOyegokeRowlesPenriceGrantBaningimeDrammehBoyceSpittalWilsonGoalGoal90+4'85'75'85'Hearts 4-2-3-1Neil Critchley

Ross County substitutes

  • 46' White for Leak · goal 90+9'
  • 59' Brown for Grieves
  • 72' Allardice for Randall
  • 72' Brophy for Hale

Hearts substitutes

  • 75' Forrest for Drammeh
  • 85' Vargas for Wilson
  • 85' Boateng for Grant
  • 90+4' Halkett for Forrester

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AmissahGK900.000.0000.0222
WrightCB900.000.0100.02210
LopataCB900.000.1000.0937
LeakCB460.090.010−0.0512
EfeteRWB900.000.0100.0337
GrievesCM590.050.0000.0211
RandallCM720.020.0000.0135
ChilversCM900.010.0820.0151
HarmonLWB900.000.0830.1369
NisbetAM9010.090.032−0.0201
HaleST720.140.0100.0631
WhiteFW4410.910.0100.0111
BrownDF310.000.0110.0103
AllardiceMF180.040.0100.0331
BrophyFW180.040.000−0.0100

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0112
ForresterRB900.000.0100.0659
OyegokeCB900.000.0100.0427
RowlesCB900.000.0100.06315
PenriceLB9010.000.4630.5237
GrantDM850.000.0200.0426
BaningimeDM900.000.0100.0441
DrammehRW750.010.0100.0016
BoyceAM9010.150.0520.0760
SpittalLW900.120.3320.2395
WilsonST8520.580.0200.1021
ForrestMF150.200.0000.0002
VargasMF50.000.000−0.0100
BoatengMF50.000.0000.0102
HalkettDF00.000.0000.0003

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Wright and Leak: 3 passesEfete and Randall: 3 passesEfete and Nisbet: 3 passesEfete and Hale: 3 passesGrieves and Hale: 3 passesChilvers and Nisbet: 3 passesNisbet and Hale: 3 passesAmissah and Leak: 4 passesWright and Randall: 4 passesWright and Nisbet: 4 passesHarmon and Chilvers: 4 passesHarmon and Nisbet: 4 passesHarmon and Hale: 5 passesRandall and Chilvers: 5 passesChilvers and Hale: 5 passesLeak and Harmon: 6 passesLeak and Randall: 7 passesLopata and Wright: 8 passesLopata and Leak: 9 passesWright and Efete: 16 passesAmissah: 2 completed passesLopata: 13 completed passesWright: 21 completed passesLeak: 16 completed passesEfete: 12 completed passesHarmon: 14 completed passesGrieves: 4 completed passesRandall: 12 completed passesChilvers: 11 completed passesNisbet: 10 completed passesHale: 9 completed passes182043241614810239AmissahLopataWrightLeakEfeteHarmonGrievesRandallChilversNisbetHaleStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Oyegoke and Grant: 3 passesOyegoke and Drammeh: 3 passesPenrice and Boyce: 3 passesPenrice and Wilson: 3 passesBaningime and Boyce: 3 passesGordon and Boyce: 4 passesGrant and Drammeh: 4 passesGrant and Boyce: 4 passesDrammeh and Boyce: 4 passesGordon and Oyegoke: 5 passesForrester and Spittal: 5 passesRowles and Baningime: 5 passesRowles and Grant: 5 passesBoyce and Wilson: 5 passesBaningime and Spittal: 6 passesGrant and Spittal: 6 passesGordon and Rowles: 7 passesForrester and Boyce: 7 passesForrester and Oyegoke: 9 passesForrester and Drammeh: 10 passesRowles and Spittal: 11 passesForrester and Grant: 12 passesPenrice and Spittal: 12 passesRowles and Oyegoke: 13 passesBoyce and Spittal: 13 passesRowles and Penrice: 14 passesGordon: 15 completed passesForrester: 27 completed passesRowles: 30 completed passesOyegoke: 19 completed passesPenrice: 19 completed passesBaningime: 10 completed passesGrant: 24 completed passesDrammeh: 10 completed passesBoyce: 16 completed passesSpittal: 27 completed passesWilson: 6 completed passes135155296737271621GordonForresterRowlesOyegokePenriceBaningimeGrantDrammehBoyceSpittalWilsonStarters until 75' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
WrightEfete12
HarmonChilvers10
EfeteWright8
LopataLeak6
LopataAmissah6

Hearts

FromToPasses
SpittalBoyce11
RowlesPenrice8
PenriceSpittal8
RowlesOyegoke7
OyegokeForrester7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

2−3.27+0.35−4.460.05−2.970.09+2.49+1.711+3.56+0.62−2.53−0.42−2.08+2.83−0.81−1.61−1.02−0.86+3.04+1.51−0.80−1.30−1.04+2.10−0.90−0.21+0.50−0.11+0.46−13.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Hearts

7+2.93−2.321+8.56−0.68+3.111+4.04−2.63−2.73−4.06−1.56+0.35+1.01−1.72−3.570.08+3.33−0.21−1.76+2.62−2.02−0.50−1.91−0.25+3.54+1.80−0.60−0.51+0.30−0.41−0.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.010.010.010.010.010.030.010.030.010.020.010.020.020.01−0.020.010.01−0.010.06−0.120.030.060.13LessMore

Hearts

0.010.040.010.040.010.020.010.020.010.020.050.040.010.060.070.050.010.17−0.020.51LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackRoss County1.03 → 1.04Hearts1.23 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.56 → 1.54Hearts1.38 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six3%2%−1
11th26%27%+1
Bottom21%22%+1
Hearts
Top six7%6%−1
11th16%16%0
Bottom9%9%0
Kilmarnock
Top six36%39%+3
11th3%3%0
St. Johnstone
11th24%25%+1
Bottom48%47%−1

From the forecast before the match (29 December 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyHearts
Expected goals1.271.26
Win36%36%
Expected Points1.361.36
Clean sheet28%28%

Ross County 36%Draw 28%Hearts 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Hearts goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+9%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%6%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 December 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawHearts win
Ross County
Top six3%6%2%1%
11th26%21%27%30%
Bottom21%13%22%29%
Hearts
Top six7%3%6%11%
11th16%21%16%10%
Bottom9%14%9%5%
Kilmarnock
Top six36%36%39%34%
11th3%4%3%3%
St. Johnstone
11th24%22%25%26%
Bottom48%51%47%46%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. W3–026 DecDundee FC (A)xG 2.03–0.30
  2. L1–221 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.24–1.10
  3. L1–314 DecHibernian (A)xG 1.22–4.80
  4. L0–38 DecRangers (H)xG 0.77–1.61
  5. L0–530 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.10–3.09
  6. W2–123 NovMotherwell (H)xG 1.59–0.63

Hearts

  1. L1–226 DecHibernian (H)xG 0.70–1.93
  2. W2–122 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.75–1.28
  3. L0–115 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.15–1.57
  4. W2–07 DecDundee FC (H)xG 1.75–0.54
  5. D1–11 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.15–0.62
  6. L1–423 NovCeltic (H)xG 0.85–3.87

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyHearts
Position10th11th
Played1919
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠6–⁠94–⁠4–⁠11
Points18 (0.95 per game)16 (0.84 per game)
Expected Points per game1.131.15
Goals17–⁠3521–⁠29
xG per game0.97–⁠1.601.13–⁠1.52
Home: points, xG per game1.20, 1.19–⁠0.901.20, 1.19–⁠1.31
Away: points, xG per game0.67, 0.73–⁠2.380.44, 1.06–⁠1.77
ManagerDon Cowie (34)Neil Critchley (10)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackRoss County1.03, 11thHearts1.23, 6thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.56, 11thHearts1.38, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecRoss County attack: 1.03Hearts attack: 1.231.231.03HeartsRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecRoss County defence: 1.56Hearts defence: 1.381.561.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−56%+28%−16%−1%
Counter-attacks−44%+23%−35%+1%
Set pieces−7%−18%+1%−3%
Penalties+56%−6%−100%+88%
Headers−31%+9%−5%+24%
Left side−16%+4%+8%+7%
Centre−49%+21%−25%−5%
Right side−44%+11%−6%−4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdHearts concededLeft side−16%−4%Centre−49%−5%Right side−44%+7%Open play−56%−1%Counter-attacks−44%+1%Set pieces−7%−3%Headers−31%+24%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRoss County concededLeft side+8%+11%Centre−25%+21%Right side−6%+4%Open play−16%+28%Counter-attacks−35%+23%Set pieces+1%−18%Headers−5%+9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyHearts

0.97xG1.13
1.60xG against1.52
40%Possession55%
10.9Shots12.9
14.2Shots against11.5
3.2Shots on target3.6
1.2Big chances1.9
15.9Touches in the opposition box25.9
296Passes459
66%Pass accuracy78%
4.5Corners6.4
37%Field tilt57%
29.6Final-third entries44.7
7.3Box entries12.1
17.3Passes per defensive action12.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.051.36
Ahead191.000.99
Behind250.832.51

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.081.76
Ahead151.151.12
Behind341.181.41

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.182–2
16–300.110.222–4
31–450.230.293–9
46–600.120.263–4
61–750.160.282–4
76–900.210.365–12

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.211–4
16–300.130.254–3
31–450.150.284–5
46–600.100.322–6
61–750.170.174–4
76–900.380.306–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 15Hamilton 3Amissah 1Wright 19Denholm 1Grieves 1Lopata 14Allardice 2Leak 12Campbell 5Nightingale 3Brown 11Efete 8Randall 8Chilvers 4Denholm 2Nisbet 10Harmon 6Campbell 3Randall 6Harmon 4Campbell 3Chilvers 7Randall 4Denholm 2White 10Brophy 3Chilvers 2Hale 17Grieves 2Samuel 23-4-1-2 in 7 of 19 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-5-2 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 17Clark 2Oyegoke 10Taylor 4Forrester 3Kent 12Halkett 6Oyegoke 1Rowles 17Kingsley 2Penrice 13Kingsley 3Spittal 1Devlin 12Baningime 6Penrice 1Boateng 13Grant 3Spittal 1Forrest 5Drammeh 4Vargas 3Shankland 7Grant 3Baningime 2Spittal 11Forrest 3Vargas 2Shankland 11Vargas 4Wilson 34-2-3-1 in 9 of 19 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (9), 4-4-2 (4), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 September 2024Hearts1–1Ross CountyxG 1.94–0.84
16 March 2024Ross County2–1HeartsxG 1.74–1.27
30 December 2023Hearts2–2Ross CountyxG 1.87–1.54
30 September 2023Ross County0–1HeartsxG 0.40–0.98
22 April 2023Hearts6–1Ross CountyxG 3.68–1.59
30 October 2022Ross County1–2HeartsxG 1.44–0.65

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 1, Hearts won 5, and 5 were drawn. Goals 12–20 and xG 1.31–1.67 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hale171,397500.360.04
White121,174300.240.06
Chilvers131,018120.130.14
Efete8677100.140.03

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland181,581330.320.15
Vargas12974210.270.12
Forrest8718100.160.11
Dhanda6637010.070.20

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.