Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 0–0 Kilmarnock

Sunday 13 August 2023, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 2 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 18,455

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsKilmarnock
Goals00
xG0.390.73
Expected Points0.941.60

Hearts 16%Draw 45%Kilmarnock 38%

Most likely score 0–0, 34%. Final score 0–0, 34%.

Kilmarnock goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+24%8%2%12%11%3%2%2%34%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTBoyce on for Lowry, 59'Denholm on for Devlin and Vargas on for Tagawa, 68'Forrest on for Oda and Sibbick on for Atkinson, 78'Vassell on for Watkins, 74'McKenzie on for Magennis, 89'Donnelly on for Armstrong, 90+2'Kilmarnock 0.73Hearts 0.3900.250.50.7510153045607590HTBoyce on for Lowry, 59'Denholm on for Devlin and Vargas on for Tagawa, 68'Forrest on for Oda and Sibbick on for Atkinson, 78'Vassell on for Watkins, 74'McKenzie on for Magennis, 89'Donnelly on for Armstrong, 90+2'0.730.39HeartsKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsKilmarnock

0.39 −1.38xG0.73 +0.21
0.36 −3.53xG on target0.62 −0.53
8 −8Shots13 +3
1 −8.0Shots on target4 +1.0
0 −5.0Big chances0 −1.0
15 −15Touches in the opposition box20
64% −4Possession36% +4
491 +34Passes271 −20
77% 0Pass accuracy62% +2
61% −19Field tilt39% +7
47 0Final-third entries34 +1
11 −6.0Box entries13 +4.0
10.2 +1.7Passes per defensive action15.2 −8.9
6 −3.0Corners5 +3.0
11 +6.0Tackles21 +6.0
8 0.0Interceptions8 −6.0
19 +2Clearances18 −10
4 +2.0Saves1 −3.0
12 −1.0Fouls15 +8.0
1 −1.0Offsides1 +1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 82', 0.11 xGTagawa 45+2', 0.08 xGForrest 79', 0.07 xGKingsley 24', 0.03 xGHaring 33', 0.03 xGShankland 90+2', 0.03 xGShankland 81', 0.02 xGVargas 88', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals51%0.20 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals13%0.05 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals28%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals8%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Kennedy 20', 0.12 xGWatson 27', 0.11 xGArmstrong 56', 0.11 xGKennedy 72', 0.07 xGDeas 14', 0.06 xGMagennis 72', 0.05 xGDeas 42', 0.04 xGMagennis 43', 0.04 xGKennedy 39', 0.03 xGKennedy 41', 0.03 xGKennedy 76', 0.03 xGKennedy 46', 0.02 xGFindlay 65', 0.02 xG14%0.10 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 0 goals52%0.38 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals22%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals12%0.09 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsKilmarnock

0.37 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.27 5 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.12 1 shot, 0 goals
0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.34 7 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
97 min (100%) · Hearts 0.39, Kilmarnock 0.73 xG

Line-ups

281321531451195130ClarkAtkinsonKentRowlesKingsleyDevlinHaringOdaShanklandLowryTagawaYellow cardYellow cardYellow card78'68'78'59'68'Hearts 4-2-3-1Frankie McAvoy15617118121631023DennisMayoDeasFindlayArmstrongLyonsWatsonMagennisNdabaKennedyWatkinsYellow cardYellow card90+2'89'74'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes

Hearts substitutes

  • 59' Boyce for Lowry
  • 68' Denholm for Devlin
  • 68' Vargas for Tagawa
  • 78' Sibbick for Atkinson
  • 78' Forrest for Oda

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 74' Vassell for Watkins
  • 89' McKenzie for Magennis · yellow card 90+3'
  • 90+2' Donnelly for Armstrong · yellow card 90+5'

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0100.0661
Atkinson RB780.000.0310.0642
KentCB900.000.0300.1076
RowlesCB900.000.0200.1094
KingsleyLB900.030.1120.11155
Devlin DM680.000.0110.0311
HaringDM900.030.0900.2879
OdaRW780.000.0100.0314
Shankland AM900.150.192−0.0212
LowryLW590.000.0200.0032
TagawaST680.080.0000.0000
BoyceFW310.000.2020.0341
DenholmMF220.000.0000.0332
VargasMF220.020.0100.0212
SibbickDF120.000.000−0.0110
ForrestMF120.070.0100.0320

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0121
MayoCB900.000.011−0.02410
DeasCB900.110.021−0.0846
FindlayCB900.020.0200.0704
Armstrong RWB900.110.1300.1565
Lyons CM900.000.0710.0458
WatsonCM900.110.3920.5853
MagennisCM890.090.021−0.0913
NdabaLWB900.000.010−0.0321
KennedyST900.300.1820.3090
WatkinsST740.000.0120.0113
VassellFW160.000.0000.0103
McKenzie MF10.000.0000.0002
Donnelly DF00.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Clark and Kent: 5 passesRowles and Shankland: 5 passesClark and Rowles: 6 passesAtkinson and Haring: 6 passesKent and Shankland: 6 passesDevlin and Haring: 6 passesDevlin and Shankland: 6 passesHaring and Oda: 6 passesAtkinson and Oda: 7 passesRowles and Lowry: 7 passesKent and Kingsley: 7 passesDevlin and Lowry: 7 passesKent and Devlin: 8 passesKingsley and Shankland: 8 passesKent and Oda: 10 passesKent and Haring: 11 passesKingsley and Lowry: 11 passesAtkinson and Kent: 12 passesKingsley and Devlin: 15 passesRowles and Kingsley: 19 passesRowles and Devlin: 20 passesRowles and Kent: 30 passesClark: 10 completed passesAtkinson: 21 completed passesRowles: 54 completed passesKent: 50 completed passesKingsley: 36 completed passesDevlin: 36 completed passesHaring: 23 completed passesOda: 15 completed passesShankland: 17 completed passesLowry: 10 completed passesTagawa: 4 completed passes281315231451195130ClarkAtkinsonRowlesKentKingsleyDevlinHaringOdaShanklandLowryTagawaStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Deas: 3 passesDeas and Armstrong: 3 passesMayo and Findlay: 3 passesMayo and Watson: 3 passesMayo and Kennedy: 3 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 3 passesNdaba and Watkins: 3 passesKennedy and Watkins: 3 passesDennis and Ndaba: 4 passesDeas and Findlay: 4 passesFindlay and Magennis: 4 passesMagennis and Kennedy: 4 passesDennis and Mayo: 6 passesDennis and Findlay: 6 passesWatson and Magennis: 6 passesLyons and Watkins: 6 passesMayo and Lyons: 7 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 7 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 7 passesWatson and Kennedy: 8 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 9 passesNdaba and Magennis: 10 passesArmstrong and Watson: 11 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 15 passesDennis: 12 completed passesDeas: 11 completed passesMayo: 15 completed passesFindlay: 15 completed passesArmstrong: 15 completed passesNdaba: 20 completed passesWatson: 24 completed passesMagennis: 13 completed passesLyons: 19 completed passesKennedy: 19 completed passesWatkins: 12 completed passes16517113121681023DennisDeasMayoFindlayArmstrongNdabaWatsonMagennisLyonsKennedyWatkinsStarters until 74' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesKent20
KentRowles20
KingsleyRowles14
RowlesDevlin13
RowlesHaring11

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
NdabaKennedy10
WatsonArmstrong9
WatsonKennedy6
KennedyNdaba6
NdabaMagennis5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

4−4.06−5.012+2.08+2.010+5.012+1.04+1.06+3.07+3.011+8.070.01−7.010+9.05−1.060.02−2.03−2.02−1.050.06+3.02+1.01−1.010.02+2.05+5.000.00−2.00−2.000.00−1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 1 match

Kilmarnock

14+10.09+4.012−8.050.030.011+7.08−1.07−5.05+1.013+9.07+2.06−2.06−2.07+1.05−1.03−1.02−2.03+1.02−1.03+2.000.03+3.04+3.00−1.00−1.01+1.01+1.010.06−10.04−10.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 1 match

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.040.010.030.040.010.010.020.010.080.030.020.030.090.070.110.080.030.07−0.04−0.120.020.22LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.030.030.010.030.010.040.120.020.060.07−0.010.130.090.07−0.17−0.13−0.010.150.180.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackHearts1.35 → 1.32Kilmarnock1.14 → 1.13Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.33 → 1.32Kilmarnock1.38 → 1.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six78%75%−3
11th2%1%−1
Bottom1%1%0
Kilmarnock
Top six54%55%+1
11th6%5%−1
Bottom3%3%0

From the forecast before the match (13 August 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsKilmarnock
Expected goals1.711.02
Win53%22%
Expected Points1.840.91
Clean sheet36%18%

Hearts 53%Draw 25%Kilmarnock 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 53%.

Kilmarnock goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%6%3%1%6%2%5%2%5%6%3%1%2%2%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 13 August 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawKilmarnock win
Hearts
Top six78%83%75%69%
11th2%1%1%2%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%
Kilmarnock
Top six54%47%55%68%
11th6%7%5%3%
Bottom3%4%3%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W2–05 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.77–0.94
  2. D1–127 MayHibernian (H)xG 0.11–1.50
  3. D2–224 MayRangers (A)xG 1.17–2.85
  4. W2–120 MayAberdeen (H)xG 2.55–1.01
  5. D2–213 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 2.13–1.06
  6. L0–27 MayCeltic (H)xG 0.28–1.39

Kilmarnock

  1. W1–05 AugRangers (H)xG 0.52–1.36
  2. W3–128 MayRoss County (H)xG 1.46–1.25
  3. W3–024 MayDundee United (A)xG 1.90–0.99
  4. L0–120 MaySt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.48–1.62
  5. W2–013 MayLivingston (H)xG 1.75–0.32
  6. L0–26 MayMotherwell (A)xG 0.43–1.67

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsKilmarnock
Position4th5th
Played11
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠0–⁠01–⁠0–⁠0
Points3 (3.00 per game)3 (3.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.990.69
Goals2–⁠01–⁠0
xG per game1.77–⁠0.940.52–⁠1.36
Home: points, xG per game–⁠3.00, 0.52–⁠1.36
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 1.77–⁠0.94–⁠
ManagerFrankie McAvoy (1)Derek McInnes (39)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackHearts1.35, 3rdKilmarnock1.14, 7thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.33, 4thKilmarnock1.38, 7th

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+10%+4%−32%+1%
Counter-attacks+76%−55%−36%−19%
Set pieces−10%+55%+15%+19%
Penalties+20%−24%−57%−24%
Headers−24%+23%−12%−2%
Left side−16%+1%−13%−17%
Centre+17%+19%−24%+11%
Right side+15%+23%−24%+10%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−16%+10%Centre+17%+11%Right side+15%−17%Open play+10%+1%Counter-attacks+76%−19%Set pieces−10%+19%Headers−24%−2%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side−13%+23%Centre−24%+19%Right side−24%+1%Open play−32%+4%Counter-attacks−36%−55%Set pieces+15%+55%Headers−12%+23%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsKilmarnock

1.77xG0.52
0.94xG against1.36
68%Possession32%
16.0Shots10.0
10.0Shots against18.0
9.0Shots on target3.0
5.0Big chances1.0
457Passes291
77%Pass accuracy60%
9.0Corners2.0
80%Field tilt32%
47.0Final-third entries33.0
17.0Box entries9.0
8.5Passes per defensive action24.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level751.341.04
Ahead153.900.42
Behind0––

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level650.611.15
Ahead250.321.91
Behind0––

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.000.530–0
16–300.100.000–0
31–450.080.080–0
46–600.080.260–0
61–750.860.001–0
76–900.650.071–0

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.070–0
16–300.070.000–0
31–450.000.270–0
46–600.090.080–0
61–750.260.411–0
76–900.000.530–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTClark 1Atkinson 1Kent 1Rowles 1Kingsley 1Haring 1Devlin 1Oda 1Nieuwenhof 1Forrest 1Shankland 14-2-3-1 in every start

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTDennis 1Armstrong 1Mayo 1Deas 1Findlay 1Ndaba 1Watson 1Lyons 1Magennis 1Kennedy 1Watkins 15-3-2 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 April 2023Kilmarnock2–1HeartsxG 2.72–0.68
17 December 2022Hearts3–1KilmarnockxG 2.40–1.09
9 October 2022Kilmarnock2–2HeartsxG 1.68–1.17

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 1, Kilmarnock won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 6–5 and xG 1.42–1.83 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland343,1282540.690.11
Oda8627200.290.06
Forrest171,559400.180.06
Atkinson121,170120.060.11

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong322,831970.240.22
Vassell141,184420.330.11
Murray4511000.080.16
Cameron5633110.200.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.