Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Motherwell 1–1 Kilmarnock

Friday 20 December 2024, 19:45 · Fir Park · Round 18 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 4,966

Motherwell Gordon 17' · Casey sent off 77'

Kilmarnock Polworth 74'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellKilmarnock
Goals11
xG0.761.03
Expected Points1.111.53

Motherwell 25%Draw 36%Kilmarnock 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 1–1, 18%.

Kilmarnock goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+8%2%9%3%4%5%3%15%15%14%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTCasey (Motherwell), red card 77'Wilson on for Seddon, 38'Sparrow on for Paton and Zdravkovski on for Halliday, 69'Maswanhise on for Watt, 84'Ebiye on for Stamatelopoulos, 85'Wales on for Watkins, 51'Armstrong on for Anderson and Magennis on for Watson, 71'McKenzie on for Polworth, 90+4'Gordon 17'Polworth 74'Kilmarnock 1.03Motherwell 0.7600.511.50153045607590HTCasey (Motherwell), red card 77'Wilson on for Seddon, 38'Sparrow on for Paton and Zdravkovski on for Halliday, 69'Maswanhise on for Watt, 84'Ebiye on for Stamatelopoulos, 85'Wales on for Watkins, 51'Armstrong on for Anderson and Magennis on for Watson, 71'McKenzie on for Polworth, 90+4'Gordon 17'Polworth 74'1.030.76MotherwellKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellKilmarnock

0.76 −0.57xG1.03 −0.26
0.23 −1.21xG on target1.06 −0.01
4 −7Shots13 0
1 −2.9Shots on target5 +1.6
2 −0.1Big chances1 −0.9
12 −8Touches in the opposition box24 +4
35% −6Possession65% +24
268 −41Passes479 +181
63% −5Pass accuracy80% +14
36% 0Field tilt64% +25
28 +1Final-third entries36 +5
5 −3.4Box entries13 +4.2
13.6 −5Passes per defensive action7.2 −9
2 −3.3Corners8 +3.1
21 +5Tackles14 −1
7 −1.6Interceptions6 −3.0
34 +6Clearances35 0
4 +0.2Saves0 −3.4
14 +3.1Fouls17 +7.2
5 +3.1Offsides0 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Casey 17', 0.28 xGStamatelopoulos 57', 0.07 xGMiller 86', 0.05 xGGordon 17', 0.36 xG, goal37%0.28 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.28 xG, 0 goals57%0.43 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.43 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals7%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Wright 60', 0.19 xGVassell 90+1', 0.18 xGWales 60', 0.14 xGVassell 62', 0.13 xGVassell 89', 0.08 xGVassell 31', 0.06 xGMagennis 90+1', 0.06 xGVassell 73', 0.04 xGWright 13', 0.03 xGPolworth 49', 0.03 xGVassell 11', 0.02 xGPolworth 3', 0.01 xGPolworth 74', 0.05 xG, goal18%0.19 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.19 xG, 0 goals17%0.18 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals58%0.60 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.60 xG, 1 goal4%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellKilmarnock

0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsOpen play0.32 6 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.40 3 shots, 0 goals
0.68 3 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.31 4 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
37 min (39%) · Motherwell 0.68, Kilmarnock 0.40 xG
Motherwell ahead
57 min (61%) · Motherwell 0.07, Kilmarnock 0.64 xG

Line-ups

13154201221381131452OxboroughCaseyGordonBlaneyPatonKaletaMillerHallidaySeddonStamatelopoulosWattSent offGoalYellow card69'69'38'85'84'Motherwell 3-1-4-2Stuart Kettlewell1543812311519239O'HaraMayoWrightNdabaLyonsWatsonPolworthMurrayAndersonWatkinsVassellYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card71'90+4'71'51'Kilmarnock 3-4-1-2Derek McInnes

Motherwell substitutes

  • 38' Wilson for Seddon
  • 69' Zdravkovski for Halliday
  • 69' Sparrow for Paton
  • 84' Maswanhise for Watt
  • 85' Ebiye for Stamatelopoulos

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 51' Wales for Watkins
  • 71' Armstrong for Anderson · yellow card 78'
  • 71' Magennis for Watson · yellow card 90+3'
  • 90+4' McKenzie for Polworth

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
OxboroughGK900.000.0000.0230
Casey CB770.280.0100.0555
GordonCB9010.360.0100.05311
BlaneyCB900.000.0100.04412
Paton DM690.000.0000.0220
KaletaRWB900.000.010−0.0226
MillerCM900.050.4110.28714
HallidayCM690.000.000−0.0122
SeddonLWB380.000.0000.0131
StamatelopoulosST850.070.020−0.0105
WattST840.000.0810.0304
WilsonMF520.000.0000.0003
ZdravkovskiMF210.000.0100.0212
SparrowMF210.000.0000.0100
MaswanhiseFW60.000.0300.0511
EbiyeFW50.000.000−0.0101

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
O'HaraGK900.000.0000.0111
MayoCB900.000.0500.11316
Wright CB900.220.0100.0427
NdabaCB900.000.1410.17138
LyonsRWB9010.000.1350.21171
Watson CM710.000.0100.0255
Polworth CM9010.090.020−0.0424
MurrayLWB900.000.2630.1468
AndersonAM710.000.0000.0000
WatkinsST510.000.011−0.0102
VassellST900.520.000−0.0431
WalesFW390.140.031−0.0610
Armstrong MF190.000.0900.0420
Magennis MF190.060.010−0.0402
McKenzieDF00.000.0200.0300

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Casey and Gordon: 3 passesCasey and Miller: 3 passesCasey and Watt: 3 passesBlaney and Gordon: 3 passesBlaney and Watt: 3 passesPaton and Seddon: 3 passesPaton and Stamatelopoulos: 3 passesPaton and Watt: 3 passesMiller and Halliday: 4 passesSeddon and Watt: 4 passesBlaney and Seddon: 5 passesMiller and Stamatelopoulos: 5 passesKaleta and Halliday: 5 passesCasey and Halliday: 6 passesHalliday and Watt: 6 passesOxborough: 3 completed passesCasey: 11 completed passesBlaney: 9 completed passesGordon: 7 completed passesMiller: 12 completed passesKaleta: 7 completed passesPaton: 4 completed passesHalliday: 12 completed passesSeddon: 10 completed passesStamatelopoulos: 9 completed passesWatt: 9 completed passes13152043821121131452OxboroughCaseyBlaneyGordonMillerKaletaPatonHallidaySeddonStamatelopoulosWattStarters until 38' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

O'Hara and Lyons: 3 passesNdaba and Watson: 3 passesNdaba and Anderson: 3 passesMayo and Watson: 3 passesPolworth and Watkins: 3 passesO'Hara and Wright: 4 passesMayo and Lyons: 4 passesLyons and Vassell: 4 passesPolworth and Vassell: 4 passesPolworth and Murray: 5 passesNdaba and Vassell: 6 passesWright and Polworth: 6 passesLyons and Watson: 6 passesLyons and Watkins: 6 passesNdaba and Watkins: 7 passesMurray and Vassell: 7 passesWright and Watson: 8 passesMayo and Polworth: 9 passesWatson and Polworth: 9 passesNdaba and Polworth: 12 passesLyons and Polworth: 12 passesNdaba and Murray: 18 passesNdaba and Mayo: 27 passesWright and Mayo: 27 passesWright and Lyons: 27 passesO'Hara: 8 completed passesNdaba: 42 completed passesWright: 40 completed passesMayo: 39 completed passesLyons: 33 completed passesWatson: 16 completed passesPolworth: 33 completed passesMurray: 19 completed passesAnderson: 1 completed passesWatkins: 9 completed passesVassell: 10 completed passes1345812311519239O'HaraNdabaWrightMayoLyonsWatsonPolworthMurrayAndersonWatkinsVassellStarters until 51' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
CaseyHalliday6
StamatelopoulosWatt6
WattHalliday5
CaseyStamatelopoulos5
MillerStamatelopoulos5

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WrightLyons21
WrightMayo20
NdabaMayo19
MurrayNdaba19
MayoNdaba18

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

4−0.35−0.819+2.06−2.25−1.67+1.27+1.44−2.112+4.17+1.96+2.35+1.94−1.15−1.27+2.92−1.21−0.93+0.15+0.81−1.70−1.910.03+1.42+0.43+2.12+1.41+0.20−0.11+0.61−5.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Kilmarnock

3−1.18+0.27+0.83−2.09+1.78+1.34−2.26−0.88+3.12−1.64+0.97+2.35+0.53−0.33−0.81−1.43−0.76+2.12+0.21−0.50−0.90−1.02−0.41+0.30−0.73+2.60−0.51+0.31−8.29−9.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.030.030.030.010.030.010.020.030.080.030.020.010.02−0.010.01−0.01−0.04−0.010.22LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.010.090.010.010.010.070.010.040.010.06−0.020.07−0.020.01−0.01−0.08−0.05−0.010.120.100.13LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackMotherwell1.25 → 1.24Kilmarnock1.18 → 1.19Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.40 → 1.40Kilmarnock1.43 → 1.41

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six82%79%−3
11th1%1%0
Kilmarnock
Top six29%28%−1
11th8%9%+1
Bottom5%4%−1

From the forecast before the match (20 December 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellKilmarnock
Expected goals1.581.10
Win48%26%
Expected Points1.701.04
Clean sheet33%21%

Motherwell 48%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Kilmarnock goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%2%7%2%9%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 20 December 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawKilmarnock win
Motherwell
Top six82%90%79%72%
11th1%<1%1%1%
Kilmarnock
Top six29%20%28%44%
11th8%10%9%5%
Bottom5%6%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. W4–314 DecDundee United (H)xG 2.09–2.02
  2. W1–07 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.74–0.55
  3. L1–44 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.97–0.60
  4. L0–330 NovHibernian (H)xG 0.75–3.15
  5. L1–223 NovRoss County (A)xG 0.63–1.59
  6. W2–19 NovSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.44–1.18

Kilmarnock

  1. W1–015 DecHearts (H)xG 1.57–1.15
  2. D1–17 DecDundee United (A)xG 1.62–2.38
  3. L0–64 DecRangers (A)xG 0.09–4.60
  4. D1–130 NovDundee FC (H)xG 1.28–0.75
  5. L0–123 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.45–1.02
  6. L0–210 NovCeltic (H)xG 2.22–2.12

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellKilmarnock
Position4th8th
Played1617
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠1–⁠74–⁠5–⁠8
Points25 (1.56 per game)17 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.331.20
Goals22–⁠2618–⁠34
xG per game1.33–⁠1.461.29–⁠1.68
Home: points, xG per game1.62, 1.42–⁠1.491.29, 1.76–⁠1.45
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.24–⁠1.430.80, 0.96–⁠1.84
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (68)Derek McInnes (93)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackMotherwell1.25, 6thKilmarnock1.18, 8thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.40, 6thKilmarnock1.43, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecMotherwell attack: 1.25Kilmarnock attack: 1.181.251.18KilmarnockMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecMotherwell defence: 1.40Kilmarnock defence: 1.431.431.40

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−12%+5%−20%+21%
Counter-attacks−21%−30%−54%−27%
Set pieces+25%−2%+18%+25%
Penalties−63%+11%+5%+5%
Headers+54%+2%−1%+5%
Left side−32%+27%−2%+5%
Centre+14%−17%−18%+25%
Right side−8%+10%−10%+16%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−32%+16%Centre+14%+25%Right side−8%+5%Open play−12%+21%Counter-attacks−21%−27%Set pieces+25%+25%Headers+54%+5%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side−2%+10%Centre−18%−17%Right side−10%+27%Open play−20%+5%Counter-attacks−54%−30%Set pieces+18%−2%Headers−1%+2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellKilmarnock

1.33xG1.29
1.46xG against1.68
41%Possession42%
11.4Shots12.5
13.9Shots against15.5
3.9Shots on target3.4
2.1Big chances1.9
20.4Touches in the opposition box19.5
309Passes298
68%Pass accuracy66%
5.3Corners4.9
36%Field tilt39%
26.6Final-third entries30.8
8.4Box entries8.8
18.3Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.471.27
Ahead211.121.67
Behind251.271.62

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.241.52
Ahead111.131.97
Behind331.401.81

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.272–4
16–300.330.206–4
31–450.140.344–3
46–600.180.312–7
61–750.200.142–4
76–900.330.196–4

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.271–2
16–300.190.202–4
31–450.190.322–7
46–600.150.273–6
61–750.260.303–6
76–900.350.347–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTOxborough 16Casey 14McGinn 6O'Donnell 2Gordon 13Balmer 8Blaney 3Seddon 2O'Donnell 8Kaleta 6Wilson 1Halliday 12Gordon 1Paton 1Zdravkovski 7Miller 5Wilson 4Wilson 9Seddon 3Miller 2Miller 9Zdravkovski 3Halliday 2Maswanhise 5Stamatelopoulos 3Robinson 2Stamatelopoulos 8Robinson 5Maswanhise 13-4-2-1 in 5 of 16 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (5), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-1-2 (3), 3-5-1-1 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 13O'Hara 4Mayo 5Armstrong 4Lyons 2Findlay 9Mayo 8Wright 5Deas 9Ndaba 3Ndaba 7Lyons 4Deas 3Armstrong 9Wright 3Murray 2Polworth 6Lyons 6Watkins 1Watson 8Donnelly 6Mayo 1Kennedy 10Murray 2Ndaba 2Vassell 15Cameron 1Watkins 11Anderson 4Deas 14-4-2 in 8 of 17 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 3-4-1-2 (4), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 February 2024Motherwell1–1KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.24
4 November 2023Kilmarnock1–0MotherwellxG 1.95–0.61
26 August 2023Motherwell2–1KilmarnockxG 2.15–1.05
6 May 2023Motherwell2–0KilmarnockxG 1.67–0.43
25 February 2023Kilmarnock1–1MotherwellxG 0.75–1.24
23 December 2022Motherwell2–2KilmarnockxG 1.33–0.34

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 4, Kilmarnock won 4, and 3 were drawn. Goals 13–14 and xG 1.14–1.08 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Watt2462100.350.12
Stamatelopoulos11739410.380.04
Miller161,423250.170.24
Maswanhise7632320.290.06

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson5519500.740.08
Kennedy11948410.190.32
Watkins121,024300.400.04
Vassell151,136110.260.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.