Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Motherwell 2–1 Hibernian

Sunday 13 August 2023, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 2 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 6,484

Motherwell Wilkinson 66', Biereth 85'

Hibernian Le Fondre 90+4' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellHibernian
Goals21
xG0.600.86
Non-penalty xG0.600.07
Expected Points0.921.69

Motherwell 17%Draw 40%Hibernian 43%

Most likely score 0–1, 38%. Final score 2–1, 7%.

Hibernian goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+11%3%7%2%2%7%1%38%28%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTBiereth on for Bair, 55'Obika on for Wilkinson, 80'Zdravkovski on for Slattery, 87'Le Fondre on for Vente and Boyle on for Levitt, 46'Henderson on for Jeggo, 71'Melkersen on for Stevenson and Megwa on for Miller, 86'Wilkinson 66'Biereth 85'Le Fondre 90+4' (pen)Hibernian 0.86Motherwell 0.6000.250.50.7510153045607590HTBiereth on for Bair, 55'Obika on for Wilkinson, 80'Zdravkovski on for Slattery, 87'Le Fondre on for Vente and Boyle on for Levitt, 46'Henderson on for Jeggo, 71'Melkersen on for Stevenson and Megwa on for Miller, 86'Wilkinson 66'Biereth 85'Le Fondre 90+4' (pen)0.860.60MotherwellHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellHibernian

0.60 −0.16xG0.86 −0.55
0.60Non-penalty xG0.07
1.24 +0.67xG on target0.97 −0.91
10 −3Shots4 −10
3 0.0Shots on target1 −5.0
1 0.0Big chances1 −2.0
49% −9Possession51% −8
347 −56Passes370 −54
69% −2Pass accuracy65% −8
63% +1Field tilt37% −20
19 −18Final-third entries19 −23
5 −7Box entries3 −10
13.3 +4.4Passes per defensive action11.5 +0.7
5 −7.0Corners2 0.0
17 −2Tackles11 +1
5 −2.0Interceptions10 +1.0
24 +1Clearances16 +4
0 0.0Saves1 0.0
14 +2Fouls16 +2
2 +1.0Offsides1 +1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Miller 47', 0.07 xGSlattery 70', 0.07 xGCasey 41', 0.06 xGSlattery 42', 0.05 xGWilkinson 21', 0.04 xGSpittal 58', 0.04 xGSpittal 21', 0.03 xGWilkinson 63', 0.02 xGBiereth 85', 0.12 xG, goalWilkinson 66', 0.10 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals47%0.28 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.28 xG, 2 goals8%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals43%0.26 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Doidge 62', 0.04 xGDoidge 90+1', 0.02 xGLevitt 4', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals86%0.06 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals14%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellHibernian

0.37 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.04 2 shots, 0 goals
0.16 2 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
66 min (69%) · Motherwell 0.41, Hibernian 0.05 xG
Motherwell ahead
30 min (31%) · Motherwell 0.20, Hibernian 0.81 xG

Line-ups

11651528387779914KellyMcGinnMugabiCaseyO'DonnellSlatteryMillerSpittalSouaréWilkinsonBairYellow cardGoal87'80'55'Motherwell 3-5-2Stuart Kettlewell1541621461121239MarshallFishHanlonStevensonMillerJeggoLevittNewellObitaDoidgeVenteYellow cardYellow cardYellow card86'86'71'46'46'Hibernian 3-5-2Lee Johnson

Motherwell substitutes

  • 55' Biereth for Bair · goal 85', 1 assist
  • 80' Obika for Wilkinson
  • 87' Zdravkovski for Slattery

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' Le Fondre for Vente · goal 90+4' (pen)
  • 46' Boyle for Levitt · yellow card 88'
  • 71' Henderson for Jeggo
  • 86' Melkersen for Stevenson
  • 86' Megwa for Miller

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0321
McGinnCB900.000.0100.0567
MugabiCB900.000.0000.01011
CaseyCB900.060.0000.0325
O'DonnellRWB900.000.0100.0443
SlatteryCM870.120.0310.0341
MillerCM900.070.0800.0924
Spittal CM900.070.0100.0453
SouaréLWB900.000.0410.1273
WilkinsonST8010.160.0110.0004
BairST550.000.0000.0002
BierethFW35110.120.1020.1431
ObikaFW100.000.0000.0000
ZdravkovskiMF30.000.0000.0111

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0111
FishCB900.000.0000.19210
HanlonCB900.000.0200.1064
StevensonCB860.000.0200.0785
Miller RWB860.000.0410.0343
Jeggo CM710.000.0000.0004
LevittCM460.010.0000.0010
Newell CM900.000.020−0.0224
ObitaLWB900.000.0510.0333
DoidgeST900.050.031−0.1003
VenteST460.000.000−0.0301
Le FondreFW4410.790.0000.0200
Boyle FW440.000.0000.0110
HendersonFW190.000.000−0.0111
MelkersenFW40.000.0000.0101
MegwaDF40.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Casey and McGinn: 4 passesCasey and Spittal: 4 passesMugabi and O'Donnell: 4 passesMcGinn and Miller: 4 passesMcGinn and Wilkinson: 4 passesMcGinn and Bair: 4 passesO'Donnell and Bair: 4 passesSpittal and Miller: 4 passesSpittal and Wilkinson: 4 passesSpittal and Bair: 4 passesKelly and McGinn: 5 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 5 passesSouaré and Slattery: 5 passesSlattery and Spittal: 5 passesMcGinn and O'Donnell: 6 passesSouaré and Spittal: 7 passesSouaré and Wilkinson: 8 passesSlattery and Miller: 8 passesO'Donnell and Slattery: 9 passesMcGinn and Slattery: 10 passesMugabi and McGinn: 11 passesCasey and Mugabi: 15 passesCasey and Souaré: 19 passesKelly: 11 completed passesCasey: 26 completed passesMugabi: 23 completed passesMcGinn: 29 completed passesO'Donnell: 15 completed passesSouaré: 26 completed passesSlattery: 18 completed passesSpittal: 18 completed passesMiller: 13 completed passesWilkinson: 8 completed passesBair: 10 completed passes11551627787389914KellyCaseyMugabiMcGinnO'DonnellSouaréSlatterySpittalMillerWilkinsonBairStarters until 55' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hibernian

Marshall and Fish: 3 passesFish and Jeggo: 3 passesHanlon and Doidge: 3 passesStevenson and Jeggo: 3 passesNewell and Doidge: 3 passesMarshall and Stevenson: 4 passesHanlon and Obita: 4 passesStevenson and Newell: 4 passesStevenson and Levitt: 4 passesJeggo and Levitt: 4 passesNewell and Levitt: 4 passesMiller and Doidge: 5 passesJeggo and Vente: 5 passesFish and Newell: 6 passesJeggo and Newell: 6 passesMarshall and Hanlon: 7 passesFish and Miller: 7 passesHanlon and Newell: 7 passesFish and Hanlon: 9 passesStevenson and Obita: 9 passesMiller and Jeggo: 9 passesHanlon and Stevenson: 11 passesMarshall: 8 completed passesFish: 15 completed passesHanlon: 27 completed passesStevenson: 21 completed passesMiller: 13 completed passesObita: 7 completed passesJeggo: 20 completed passesNewell: 19 completed passesLevitt: 7 completed passesVente: 4 completed passesDoidge: 6 completed passes1541622114116923MarshallFishHanlonStevensonMillerObitaJeggoNewellLevittVenteDoidgeStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
SouaréCasey11
CaseySouaré10
O'DonnellSlattery9
CaseyMugabi8
McGinnO'Donnell7

Hibernian

FromToPasses
HanlonStevenson10
StevensonHanlon9
FishHanlon8
HanlonFish8
FishMiller8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

5+3.09−1.012−3.04−3.04−6.07−2.06−1.05−3.06−2.07−3.010+1.04−1.03−1.08+4.010+1.070.01−5.05+3.05−4.020.03−1.01−2.01+1.02+1.020.03+2.010.00−1.02+2.01−11.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 1 match

Hibernian

9−1.020.013+7.011+4.07−1.00−3.010+6.03−2.08−3.010+3.04−5.04+3.03−3.06+1.07+1.06+6.02−2.03−2.04−5.05−2.03+2.00−1.02+1.09+7.01+1.000.01+1.000.02+2.00−6.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 1 match

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.020.010.010.030.010.050.010.010.020.010.010.010.020.030.030.060.010.03−0.060.090.16LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.030.010.010.020.02−0.010.010.060.010.010.01−0.030.040.01−0.02−0.04−0.05−0.010.100.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackMotherwell1.18 → 1.17Hibernian1.29 → 1.28Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.35 → 1.34Hibernian1.26 → 1.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six49%58%+9
11th6%4%−2
Bottom3%2%−1
Hibernian
Top six65%57%−8
11th3%4%+1
Bottom1%2%+1

From the forecast before the match (13 August 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellHibernian
Expected goals1.371.18
Win41%31%
Expected Points1.501.22
Clean sheet31%25%

Motherwell 41%Draw 28%Hibernian 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Hibernian goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+8%9%5%2%7%3%7%9%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 13 August 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawHibernian win
Motherwell
Top six49%58%46%39%
11th6%4%6%9%
Bottom3%2%3%5%
Hibernian
Top six65%57%64%75%
11th3%4%3%2%
Bottom1%2%1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. D1–15 AugDundee FC (A)xG 0.76–1.60
  2. W3–228 MayDundee United (H)xG 2.15–2.81
  3. D1–124 MayLivingston (A)xG 0.47–0.70
  4. W1–020 MayRoss County (H)xG 1.47–0.29
  5. W2–013 MaySt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.53–0.75
  6. W2–06 MayKilmarnock (H)xG 1.67–0.43

Hibernian

  1. L2–36 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.41–1.55
  2. D1–127 MayHearts (A)xG 1.50–0.11
  3. W4–224 MayCeltic (H)xG 2.04–2.37
  4. L1–321 MayRangers (H)xG 1.19–1.91
  5. D0–013 MayAberdeen (A)xG 1.95–0.30
  6. W2–16 MaySt. Mirren (H)xG 1.67–1.61

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellHibernian
Position7th11th
Played11
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠1–⁠00–⁠0–⁠1
Points1 (1.00 per game)0 (0.00 per game)
Expected Points per game0.731.20
Goals1–⁠12–⁠3
xG per game0.76–⁠1.601.41–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game–⁠0.00, 1.41–⁠1.55
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.76–⁠1.60–⁠
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (15)Lee Johnson (39)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackMotherwell1.18, 5thHibernian1.29, 4thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.35, 6thHibernian1.26, 3rd

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−16%+12%−2%−22%
Counter-attacks+18%−31%+48%+30%
Set pieces−13%+2%−7%−19%
Penalties−2%−46%−35%+142%
Headers−24%+47%−1%−19%
Left side+4%+12%−11%−27%
Centre−22%+5%−15%−21%
Right side−16%+16%+29%+5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHibernian concededLeft side+4%+5%Centre−22%−21%Right side−16%−27%Open play−16%−22%Counter-attacks+18%+30%Set pieces−13%−19%Headers−24%−19%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdMotherwell concededLeft side−11%+16%Centre−15%+5%Right side+29%+12%Open play−2%+12%Counter-attacks+48%−31%Set pieces−7%+2%Headers−1%+47%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellHibernian

0.76xG1.41
1.60xG against1.55
58%Possession59%
13.0Shots14.0
17.0Shots against8.0
3.0Shots on target6.0
1.0Big chances3.0
403Passes424
72%Pass accuracy73%
12.0Corners2.0
61%Field tilt57%
37.0Final-third entries42.0
12.0Box entries13.0
8.9Passes per defensive action10.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level670.940.63
Ahead230.234.42
Behind0––

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level220.334.42
Ahead0––
Behind681.750.62

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.000.030–0
16–300.130.190–0
31–450.310.101–0
46–600.030.830–0
61–750.210.320–1
76–900.080.130–0

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.840–1
16–300.050.290–1
31–450.020.100–0
46–600.290.000–0
61–750.230.081–0
76–900.780.251–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTKelly 1McGinn 1Mugabi 1Casey 1O'Donnell 1Slattery 1Miller 1Spittal 1Souaré 1Wilkinson 1Bair 13-5-2 in every start

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMarshall 1Delferriere 1Fish 1Hanlon 1Stevenson 1Doyle-Hayes 1Newell 1Boyle 1Campbell 1Youan 1Doidge 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 April 2023Hibernian1–3MotherwellxG 0.90–1.79
8 January 2023Motherwell2–3HibernianxG 1.64–1.73
8 October 2022Hibernian1–0MotherwellxG 0.67–0.34
26 January 2022Motherwell0–0HibernianxG 0.61–0.38
4 December 2021Hibernian1–1MotherwellxG 1.89–1.32
1 August 2021Motherwell2–3HibernianxG 1.47–2.88

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 2, Hibernian won 4, and 3 were drawn. Goals 10–12 and xG 1.14–1.41 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Spittal372,951670.100.18
Mugabi5578100.180.00
Slattery242,028420.060.06
O'Donnell151,524010.040.06

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle11999510.310.12
Youan322,720980.260.17
Campbell292,592840.180.07
Newell343,033160.060.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.