Matches › 2024/25

Aberdeen 1–3 Hibernian

Saturday 21 December 2024, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 18 · Half-time 1–2 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 18,375

Aberdeen Keskinen 14'

Hibernian Youan 18', N. Cadden 35', Boyle 49'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Aberdeen	Hibernian
Goals	1	3
xG	1.90	1.44
Expected Points	1.67	1.06

Aberdeen 47%Draw 27%Hibernian 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Final score 1–3, 3%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenHibernian

1.90 +0.60xG1.44 −0.20

0.73 −0.77xG on target1.59 +0.15

15 +3Shots7 −7

2 −2.2Shots on target4 −0.1

3 +0.9Big chances3 +0.6

33 +9Touches in the opposition box18 −6

64% +12Possession36% −11

439 +18Passes242 −92

74% −3Pass accuracy57% −16

67% +16Field tilt33% −18

34 −2Final-third entries24 −11

17 +4Box entries7 −3

10.1 −3Passes per defensive action10.6 −4

5 −0.5Corners6 0.0

20 +2Tackles20 +7

8 −0.1Interceptions9 +1.9

23 −7Clearances37 +8

1 −1.8Saves1 −1.8

6 −6Fouls12 0

1 −0.6Offsides1 −0.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Aberdeen

Hibernian

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenHibernian

1.18 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.37 5 shots, 3 goals

0.45 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

0.27 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.07 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–01–11–21–3

Level: 31 min (32%) · Aberdeen 0.35, Hibernian 0.19 xG
Aberdeen ahead: 4 min (4%) · Aberdeen 0.00, Hibernian 0.63 xG
Hibernian ahead: 61 min (64%) · Aberdeen 1.54, Hibernian 0.62 xG

Line-ups

Aberdeen substitutes

59' Polvara for Clarkson
59' Ambrose for Sokler
77' Palaversa for Shinnie
77' Duk for Nilsen
77' Morris for Devlin

Hibernian substitutes

51' Miller for O'Hora
60' Kwon for Newell
88' Obita for C. Cadden

Players

Aberdeen

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Doohan	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	0
Devlin	RB	77			0.00	0.01	0	0.00	2	4
Rubezic	CB	90			0.03	0.00	0	0.03	4	15
Molloy	CB	90			0.19	0.01	0	0.06	7	13
MacKenzie	LB	90			0.03	0.21	1	0.21	3	0
Nilsen	DM	77			0.05	0.03	1	0.05	5	3
Shinnie	DM	77			0.00	0.29	1	0.34	8	3
Keskinen	RW	90	1		0.12	0.67	3	0.64	10	6
Clarkson	AM	59		1	0.00	0.51	2	0.11	6	1
McGrath	LW	90			0.25	0.20	2	0.00	2	3
Sokler	ST	59			0.27	0.02	0	0.01	0	1
Polvara	MF	31			0.00	0.22	1	0.06	2	0
Ambrose	FW	31			0.74	0.00	0	0.02	0	0
Palaversa	MF	13			0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	4
Duk	FW	13			0.00	0.06	1	0.09	3	0
Morris	FW	13			0.23	0.00	0	0.00	1	0

Hibernian

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Smith	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.02	2	1
O'Hora	CB	51			0.00	0.00	1	0.00	0	7
Bushiri	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.03	4	11
Iredale	CB	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.09	8	12
C. Cadden	RWB	88			0.00	0.00	0	0.02	2	7
Triantis	CM	90		1	0.00	0.12	2	0.11	5	8
Newell	CM	60			0.00	0.02	0	0.04	1	4
N. Cadden	LWB	90	1		0.25	0.02	0	0.00	2	4
Campbell	AM	90			0.00	0.05	0	−0.02	1	4
Boyle	ST	90	1	2	0.51	0.31	3	0.35	1	1
Youan	ST	90	1		0.67	0.03	0	−0.03	3	1
Miller	DF	39			0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	3
Kwon	MF	30			0.00	0.01	0	0.00	0	4
Obita	DF	2			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	2

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Hibernian

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

From	To	Passes
MacKenzie	Molloy	15
Nilsen	Shinnie	14
MacKenzie	Nilsen	13
MacKenzie	Clarkson	10
Clarkson	MacKenzie	9

Hibernian

From	To	Passes
N. Cadden	Iredale	6
N. Cadden	Youan	5
Youan	N. Cadden	5
N. Cadden	Newell	5
Campbell	C. Cadden	4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

Against its average of 16 matches

Hibernian

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

Hibernian

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Hibernian
Top six	25%	36%	+11
11th	9%	6%	−3
Bottom	5%	3%	−2
Motherwell
Top six	78%	76%	−2
St. Mirren
Top six	39%	36%	−3
11th	8%	8%	0
Bottom	4%	4%	0

From the forecast before the match (21 December 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Aberdeen	Hibernian
Expected goals	1.54	1.19
Win	45%	29%
Expected Points	1.61	1.13
Clean sheet	30%	21%

Aberdeen 45%Draw 26%Hibernian 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 55%.

From the forecast as it stood on 21 December 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Aberdeen win	Draw	Hibernian win
Hibernian
Top six	25%	18%	25%	36%
11th	9%	11%	9%	6%
Bottom	5%	6%	4%	3%
Motherwell
Top six	78%	80%	78%	76%
St. Mirren
Top six	39%	40%	39%	36%
11th	8%	7%	8%	8%
Bottom	4%	4%	3%	4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

Hibernian

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Aberdeen	Hibernian
Position	2nd	9th
Played	16	17
Won, drawn, lost	10–⁠4–⁠2	3–⁠6–⁠8
Points	34 (2.12 per game)	15 (0.88 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.22	1.37
Goals	30–⁠18	21–⁠29
xG per game	1.30–⁠1.50	1.64–⁠1.59
Home: points, xG per game	2.44, 1.49–⁠1.40	1.11, 1.81–⁠1.38
Away: points, xG per game	1.71, 1.07–⁠1.64	0.62, 1.45–⁠1.83
Manager	Jimmy Thelin (16)	David Gray (19)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Aberdeen		Hibernian
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	+11%	−1%	−9%	−6%
Counter-attacks	−51%	−60%	+4%	+95%
Set pieces	−23%	+35%	+49%	+39%
Penalties	−62%	+13%	+76%	−29%
Headers	−8%	+22%	+7%	+9%
Left side	+9%	+12%	−1%	−18%
Centre	−5%	+10%	+14%	+36%
Right side	−12%	−18%	+6%	+4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHibernian concededLeft side+9%+4%Centre−5%+36%Right side−12%−18%Open play+11%−6%Counter-attacks−51%+95%Set pieces−23%+39%Headers−8%+9%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdAberdeen concededLeft side−1%−18%Centre+14%+10%Right side+6%+12%Open play−9%−1%Counter-attacks+4%−60%Set pieces+49%+35%Headers+7%+22%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenHibernian

1.30xG1.64

1.50xG against1.59

52%Possession47%

12.2Shots13.8

13.9Shots against12.6

4.2Shots on target4.1

2.1Big chances2.4

24.4Touches in the opposition box23.8

421Passes334

77%Pass accuracy73%

5.5Corners6.0

51%Field tilt51%

36.4Final-third entries35.4

13.2Box entries10.2

13.1Passes per defensive action14.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	52	1.16	1.47
Ahead	30	1.28	1.64
Behind	8	2.24	1.25

Hibernian

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	40	1.64	1.39
Ahead	19	1.79	1.56
Behind	31	1.56	1.86

xG by period

Aberdeen

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.17	0.16	2–0
16–30	0.15	0.14	3–4
31–45	0.23	0.33	4–4
46–60	0.27	0.14	8–0
61–75	0.19	0.33	5–4
76–90	0.30	0.40	8–6

Hibernian

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.14	0.28	1–4
16–30	0.20	0.29	2–4
31–45	0.34	0.16	6–4
46–60	0.22	0.23	2–4
61–75	0.44	0.17	5–0
76–90	0.30	0.45	5–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

Hibernian

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-3-3 (5), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
26 November 2024	Hibernian	3–3	Aberdeen	xG 2.21–1.61
12 May 2024	Hibernian	0–4	Aberdeen	xG 1.03–2.33
17 February 2024	Aberdeen	2–2	Hibernian	xG 2.93–1.46
3 December 2023	Hibernian	2–0	Aberdeen	xG 1.73–3.86
3 September 2023	Aberdeen	0–2	Hibernian	xG 0.98–1.23
13 May 2023	Aberdeen	0–0	Hibernian	xG 0.30–1.95

17 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 6, Hibernian won 7, and 4 were drawn. Goals 22–25 and xG 1.36–1.38 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
McGrath	15	1,203	4	6	0.28	0.23
Duk	5	537	0	2	0.27	0.14
Clarkson	7	600	2	0	0.24	0.17
Morris	5	600	1	5	0.11	0.26

Hibernian

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
N. Cadden	7	582	3	1	0.43	0.39
Kukharevych	13	983	3	0	0.57	0.02
Hoilett	10	809	2	1	0.26	0.23
Youan	9	736	1	1	0.34	0.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.