Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hibernian 2–2 Motherwell

Tuesday 2 January 2024, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 22 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 16,796

Hibernian Youan 28', 90+1'

Motherwell Bair 35', Mugabi 64'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianMotherwell
Goals22
xG0.721.55
Expected Points0.662.07

Hibernian 13%Draw 26%Motherwell 60%

Most likely score 0–1, 18%. Final score 2–2, 5%.

Motherwell goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+6%6%1%4%13%4%2%5%5%2%1%18%16%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTStevenson on for Whittaker, 63'Molotnikov on for Levitt, 76'McKirdy on for Vente and Landers on for Fish, 86'Obika on for Biereth, 83'Butcher on for Paton, 89'Youan 28'Youan 90+1'Bair 35'Mugabi 64'Motherwell 1.55Hibernian 0.7200.511.520153045607590HTStevenson on for Whittaker, 63'Molotnikov on for Levitt, 76'McKirdy on for Vente and Landers on for Fish, 86'Obika on for Biereth, 83'Butcher on for Paton, 89'Youan 28'Youan 90+1'Bair 35'Mugabi 64'1.550.72HibernianMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianMotherwell

0.72 −0.39xG1.55 +0.45
0.41 −0.75xG on target1.58 +0.38
12 +2Shots9 −1
3 −0.5Shots on target4 +0.4
0 −1.7Big chances3 +1.1
28 +7Touches in the opposition box16 −3
68% +16Possession32% −13
536 +119Passes256 −91
85% +8Pass accuracy67% +2
69% +24Field tilt31% −14
60 +26Final-third entries16 −14
15 +3.8Box entries4 −5.5
9.4 −6Passes per defensive action24.7 +9
7 +2.5Corners3 −1.3
15 +1Tackles14 −2
8 +0.4Interceptions11 +3.3
13 −11Clearances27 +4
2 −1.1Saves1 −1.4
10 +0.3Fouls10 −2.3
1 −0.7Offsides1 −0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Doidge 9', 0.10 xGLevitt 25', 0.07 xGFish 33', 0.07 xGHanlon 23', 0.06 xGMolotnikov 77', 0.06 xGYouan 77', 0.05 xGStevenson 77', 0.05 xGYouan 27', 0.04 xGDoidge 90+3', 0.04 xGYouan 14', 0.03 xGYouan 28', 0.10 xG, goalYouan 90+1', 0.04 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals71%0.51 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.51 xG, 1 goal12%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 1 goal12%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals4%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Slattery 39', 0.44 xGSlattery 17', 0.14 xGBiereth 8', 0.06 xGPaton 38', 0.06 xGSlattery 38', 0.04 xGMcGinn 16', 0.03 xGBiereth 53', 0.03 xGMugabi 64', 0.65 xG, goalBair 35', 0.11 xG, goal50%0.78 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.78 xG, 1 goal32%0.50 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.50 xG, 0 goals13%0.20 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 1 goal2%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianMotherwell

0.38 7 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.86 7 shots, 1 goal
0.34 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.69 2 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
59 min (63%) · Hibernian 0.45, Motherwell 1.44 xG
Hibernian ahead
7 min (8%) · Hibernian 0.07, Motherwell 0.11 xG
Motherwell ahead
27 min (29%) · Hibernian 0.20, Motherwell 0.00 xG

Line-ups

1495421761129239MarshallWhittakerFishHanlonObitaYouanLevittNewellTavaresDoidgeVenteGoalGoalYellow cardYellow card63'86'76'86'Hibernian 4-4-2Nick Montgomery1251671712382414KellyO'DonnellMugabiMcGinnSpittalZdravkovskiPatonGentSlatteryBierethBairGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoal89'83'Motherwell 3-4-2-1Stuart Kettlewell

Hibernian substitutes

  • 63' Stevenson for Whittaker
  • 76' Molotnikov for Levitt
  • 86' McKirdy for Vente · 1 assist
  • 86' Landers for Fish

Motherwell substitutes

  • 83' Obika for Biereth
  • 89' Butcher for Paton

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0200
WhittakerRB6310.000.0510.0729
FishCB860.070.0100.1077
HanlonCB900.060.0710.28126
ObitaLB900.000.0400.11121
YouanRM9020.260.0800.18112
Levitt CM760.070.0520.0531
Newell CM900.000.1830.1442
TavaresLM900.000.1210.0431
DoidgeST900.140.0600.1814
VenteST860.000.010−0.0211
StevensonMF270.050.0000.0332
MolotnikovFW140.060.0000.0111
McKirdyFW410.000.0010.0000
LandersFW40.000.0000.0000

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0330
O'DonnellCB900.000.2300.1838
MugabiCB9010.650.0000.0119
McGinnCB900.030.0000.0336
SpittalRWB900.000.0610.03210
ZdravkovskiCM900.000.000−0.0204
Paton CM890.060.000−0.0117
Gent LWB900.000.2420.31813
SlatteryAM900.620.021−0.0121
BierethAM8320.090.4420.0531
BairST9010.110.0210.0400
ObikaFW70.000.0000.0000
ButcherDF10.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Fish and Youan: 5 passesHanlon and Tavares: 5 passesObita and Vente: 5 passesYouan and Vente: 5 passesNewell and Vente: 5 passesLevitt and Vente: 5 passesObita and Newell: 6 passesNewell and Tavares: 6 passesYouan and Levitt: 7 passesLevitt and Tavares: 7 passesWhittaker and Levitt: 9 passesWhittaker and Newell: 11 passesWhittaker and Fish: 12 passesFish and Levitt: 12 passesObita and Tavares: 12 passesYouan and Newell: 14 passesMarshall and Fish: 15 passesWhittaker and Youan: 15 passesHanlon and Newell: 15 passesHanlon and Levitt: 15 passesFish and Newell: 16 passesObita and Levitt: 17 passesMarshall and Hanlon: 20 passesNewell and Levitt: 20 passesHanlon and Obita: 25 passesFish and Hanlon: 26 passesMarshall: 31 completed passesWhittaker: 33 completed passesFish: 42 completed passesHanlon: 60 completed passesObita: 40 completed passesYouan: 21 completed passesNewell: 51 completed passesLevitt: 53 completed passesTavares: 14 completed passesVente: 13 completed passesDoidge: 4 completed passes1495421711629923MarshallWhittakerFishHanlonObitaYouanNewellLevittTavaresVenteDoidgeStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Motherwell

Kelly and Spittal: 4 passesMugabi and Paton: 4 passesMcGinn and Gent: 4 passesMcGinn and Zdravkovski: 4 passesO'Donnell and Spittal: 4 passesPaton and Biereth: 4 passesZdravkovski and Slattery: 4 passesSlattery and Bair: 4 passesKelly and O'Donnell: 5 passesMugabi and O'Donnell: 5 passesSpittal and Zdravkovski: 5 passesBiereth and Bair: 5 passesMcGinn and Paton: 6 passesO'Donnell and Slattery: 6 passesSpittal and Paton: 6 passesPaton and Zdravkovski: 6 passesPaton and Slattery: 6 passesGent and Paton: 9 passesGent and Biereth: 10 passesGent and Bair: 11 passesSpittal and Slattery: 13 passesKelly: 10 completed passesMugabi: 10 completed passesMcGinn: 18 completed passesO'Donnell: 12 completed passesSpittal: 24 completed passesGent: 22 completed passesPaton: 22 completed passesZdravkovski: 14 completed passesSlattery: 19 completed passesBiereth: 9 completed passesBair: 14 completed passes1516273121782414KellyMugabiMcGinnO'DonnellSpittalGentPatonZdravkovskiSlatteryBierethBairStarters until 83' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
HanlonObita28
NewellHanlon20
HanlonFish17
FishHanlon16
ObitaHanlon15

Motherwell

FromToPasses
GentBair8
SpittalSlattery7
SlatterySpittal6
SpittalPaton6
PatonSlattery5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

5−0.75−2.72−5.40−4.713+6.13−3.75−0.23−4.34−2.48+0.35+1.06+3.34−1.65−0.57+0.86+3.02+0.15+2.13+0.42+0.20−1.30−0.92+0.71−1.11+0.50−0.32+1.70−0.50−0.87−10.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Motherwell

7+2.16−1.525+9.17−0.53−2.99+2.010+3.06−1.27−0.814+7.67+1.73−2.63−0.89+4.012+5.11−4.50−4.21−2.11−2.55+1.10−2.20−2.20−1.20−1.53+0.40−1.10−0.62+1.40−0.60−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.020.010.010.040.030.030.050.030.070.070.070.060.020.010.070.080.080.010.020.080.010.120.18LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.020.010.010.020.020.010.020.020.010.010.010.010.01−0.020.100.010.010.020.150.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackHibernian1.14 → 1.13Motherwell1.08 → 1.11Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.33 → 1.35Motherwell1.42 → 1.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six55%48%−7
11th3%3%0
Bottom1%1%0
Motherwell
Top six8%8%0
11th18%17%−1
Bottom8%7%−1
St. Mirren
Top six61%63%+2
Aberdeen
Top six39%41%+2
11th5%5%0

From the forecast before the match (2 January 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianMotherwell
Expected goals1.521.02
Win48%25%
Expected Points1.711.02
Clean sheet36%22%

Hibernian 48%Draw 27%Motherwell 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Motherwell goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%9%5%2%5%5%2%2%2%11%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 January 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawMotherwell win
Hibernian
Top six55%66%48%40%
11th3%1%3%5%
Bottom1%<1%1%2%
Motherwell
Top six8%4%8%16%
11th18%21%17%11%
Bottom8%11%7%4%
St. Mirren
Top six61%59%63%63%
Aberdeen
Top six39%38%41%41%
11th5%4%5%6%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–127 DecHearts (H)xG 1.85–1.30
  2. L0–116 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.10–0.94
  3. W1–09 DecLivingston (A)xG 0.22–1.34
  4. L1–46 DecCeltic (A)xG 1.50–4.10
  5. W2–03 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.73–3.86
  6. W2–125 NovDundee FC (A)xG 0.84–1.42

Motherwell

  1. W3–130 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.48–0.94
  2. L0–224 DecRangers (H)xG 0.34–1.37
  3. D0–016 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.00–1.25
  4. D1–19 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.21–1.33
  5. L0–35 DecRoss County (A)xG 1.18–1.43
  6. D3–32 DecDundee FC (H)xG 0.89–1.59

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianMotherwell
Position6th8th
Played1920
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠6–⁠74–⁠7–⁠9
Points24 (1.26 per game)19 (0.95 per game)
Expected Points per game1.121.07
Goals24–⁠2723–⁠32
xG per game1.11–⁠1.461.10–⁠1.56
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.41–⁠1.341.09, 1.23–⁠1.42
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 0.83–⁠1.570.78, 0.95–⁠1.72
ManagerNick Montgomery (15)Stuart Kettlewell (34)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackHibernian1.14, 6thMotherwell1.08, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.33, 5thMotherwell1.42, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHibernian attack: 1.14Motherwell attack: 1.081.141.08MotherwellHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHibernian defence: 1.33Motherwell defence: 1.421.421.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−14%+11%−12%+17%
Counter-attacks−53%−15%−31%−7%
Set pieces−8%−8%−30%+7%
Penalties−40%+50%−14%+43%
Headers−15%−24%−20%+36%
Left side−8%−2%−21%+39%
Centre−20%−7%−4%+5%
Right side−13%+35%−44%average

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdMotherwell concededLeft side−8%averageCentre−20%+5%Right side−13%+39%Open play−14%+17%Counter-attacks−53%−7%Set pieces−8%+7%Headers−15%+36%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHibernian concededLeft side−21%+35%Centre−4%−7%Right side−44%−2%Open play−12%+11%Counter-attacks−31%−15%Set pieces−30%−8%Headers−20%−24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianMotherwell

1.11xG1.10
1.46xG against1.56
52%Possession45%
10.5Shots10.4
14.8Shots against14.0
3.5Shots on target3.6
1.7Big chances1.9
21.4Touches in the opposition box18.9
417Passes347
77%Pass accuracy65%
4.5Corners4.3
45%Field tilt45%
34.4Final-third entries30.4
11.2Box entries9.5
15.6Passes per defensive action15.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.091.24
Ahead270.981.64
Behind211.291.69

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level450.901.55
Ahead100.511.93
Behind341.551.45

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.232–3
16–300.210.143–3
31–450.150.213–2
46–600.170.233–5
61–750.190.299–6
76–900.240.364–8

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.122–3
16–300.120.242–9
31–450.160.212–2
46–600.090.351–5
61–750.260.284–7
76–900.390.3412–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarshall 18Wollacott 1Miller 13Whittaker 3Fish 1Fish 18Bushiri 12Hanlon 7Stevenson 1Obita 11Stevenson 7Levitt 1Youan 6Boyle 5Campbell 5Jeggo 11Levitt 9Doyle-Hayes 1Newell 17Tavares 9Youan 6Boyle 3Boyle 8Doidge 5Youan 1Vente 16Le Fondre 4Campbell 34-4-2 in 13 of 19 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (13), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKelly 20Blaney 11McGinn 10O'Donnell 4Mugabi 16Butcher 3Casey 16O'Donnell 14Spencer 5McGinn 1Paton 12Slattery 8Wilkinson 2Spittal 9Miller 5Spencer 1Spencer 10Gent 3Spittal 2Slattery 8Spittal 3Miller 3Bair 6Biereth 6Wilkinson 3Bair 7Spittal 5Biereth 33-4-3 in 6 of 20 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (6), 3-5-2 (4), 3-1-4-2 (3), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-1-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
13 August 2023Motherwell2–1HibernianxG 0.60–0.86
1 April 2023Hibernian1–3MotherwellxG 0.90–1.79
8 January 2023Motherwell2–3HibernianxG 1.64–1.73
8 October 2022Hibernian1–0MotherwellxG 0.67–0.34
26 January 2022Motherwell0–0HibernianxG 0.61–0.38
4 December 2021Hibernian1–1MotherwellxG 1.89–1.32

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 4, Motherwell won 3, and 3 were drawn. Goals 13–12 and xG 1.35–1.09 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Doidge5500320.490.05
Le Fondre4506310.410.02
Youan131,324230.200.14
Boyle161,437230.160.15

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Biereth10939630.380.20
Spittal201,800350.180.23
Bair131,040420.280.08
Gent4517010.070.24

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.