Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hibernian 1–2 Motherwell

Saturday 5 October 2024, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 7 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 15,892

Hibernian Hoilett 59' · Triantis sent off 77'

Motherwell Stamatelopoulos 56', Halliday 80'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianMotherwell
Goals12
xG1.351.23
Expected Points1.441.26

Hibernian 38%Draw 30%Motherwell 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 1–2, 9%.

Motherwell goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+6%8%5%2%9%9%3%7%10%7%2%2%4%2%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTTriantis (Hibernian), second yellow card 77'Molotnikov on for Campbell, 62'Gayle on for Kukharevych, 73'McKirdy on for Hoilett and Moriah-Welsh on for Cadden, 81'Sparrow on for Zdravkovski, 46'Ebiye on for Stamatelopoulos and Watt on for Robinson, 62'Kaleta on for O'Donnell and Maswanhise on for Halliday, 84'Hoilett 59'Stamatelopoulos 56'Halliday 80'Hibernian 1.35Motherwell 1.2300.511.50153045607590HTTriantis (Hibernian), second yellow card 77'Molotnikov on for Campbell, 62'Gayle on for Kukharevych, 73'McKirdy on for Hoilett and Moriah-Welsh on for Cadden, 81'Sparrow on for Zdravkovski, 46'Ebiye on for Stamatelopoulos and Watt on for Robinson, 62'Kaleta on for O'Donnell and Maswanhise on for Halliday, 84'Hoilett 59'Stamatelopoulos 56'Halliday 80'1.351.23HibernianMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianMotherwell

1.35 +0.22xG1.23 −0.28
2.38 +1.55xG on target1.01 −0.67
18 +6Shots11 0
7 +4.3Shots on target5 +1.0
3 +1.8Big chances2 −0.2
23 +1Touches in the opposition box13 −10
57% +13Possession43% +4
375 +63Passes287 −16
80% +10Pass accuracy70% +1
75% +27Field tilt25% −11
54 +24Final-third entries32 +8
11 +3.2Box entries4 −4.3
11.1 −4Passes per defensive action16.5 −3
10 +4.2Corners5 −3.0
14 0Tackles19 +2
5 −3.0Interceptions6 −3.0
33 +10Clearances33 +8
3 +0.5Saves5 +1.2
18 +6Fouls6 −4
0 −1.5Offsides3 +1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Cadden 51', 0.46 xGKukharevych 19', 0.21 xGKukharevych 19', 0.12 xGKukharevych 19', 0.11 xGCampbell 42', 0.09 xGHoilett 32', 0.06 xGMiller 15', 0.04 xGKwon 41', 0.04 xGKukharevych 22', 0.03 xGCadden 38', 0.03 xGObita 70', 0.03 xGCampbell 35', 0.02 xGCampbell 36', 0.02 xGTriantis 52', 0.02 xGTriantis 53', 0.02 xGMiller 41', 0.01 xGO'Hora 72', 0.01 xGHoilett 59', 0.03 xG, goal16%0.21 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.21 xG, 0 goals61%0.83 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.83 xG, 0 goals10%0.13 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.13 xG, 1 goal13%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Robinson 27', 0.20 xGRobinson 61', 0.16 xGGordon 69', 0.11 xGRobinson 24', 0.07 xGSparrow 85', 0.07 xGGordon 90+1', 0.07 xGStamatelopoulos 2', 0.04 xGMiller 90+5', 0.04 xGMiller 27', 0.03 xGHalliday 79', 0.38 xG, goalStamatelopoulos 56', 0.06 xG, goal31%0.38 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.38 xG, 1 goal56%0.69 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.69 xG, 0 goals8%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 1 goal3%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianMotherwell

0.98 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.18 3 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.23 2 shots, 0 goals
0.37 10 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.82 6 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
77 min (81%) · Hibernian 1.32, Motherwell 1.06 xG
Motherwell ahead
18 min (19%) · Hibernian 0.03, Motherwell 0.18 xG

Line-ups

124521261812322399BursikMillerEkpitetaO'HoraObitaTriantisKwonCaddenCampbellHoilettKukharevychYellow cardYellow cardSent off, second yellowYellow cardYellow cardGoal81'62'81'73'Hibernian 4-2-3-1David Gray13164526381123149OxboroughMcGinnGordonBalmerO'DonnellZdravkovskiMillerHallidayWilsonStamatelopoulosRobinsonYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoal84'46'84'62'62'Motherwell 3-5-2Stuart Kettlewell

Hibernian substitutes

  • 62' Molotnikov for Campbell
  • 73' Gayle for Kukharevych
  • 81' McKirdy for Hoilett
  • 81' Moriah-Welsh for Cadden

Motherwell substitutes

  • 46' Sparrow for Zdravkovski · yellow card 83'
  • 62' Ebiye for Stamatelopoulos
  • 62' Watt for Robinson
  • 84' Kaleta for O'Donnell
  • 84' Maswanhise for Halliday

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BursikGK900.000.0000.0104
MillerRB900.050.0110.11111
Ekpiteta CB900.000.0200.0749
O'HoraCB900.010.0100.06412
ObitaLB900.030.1320.30177
Triantis DM770.040.0700.1153
Kwon DM900.040.0420.0645
CaddenRW810.490.0100.0243
Campbell AM620.120.010−0.0131
HoilettLW8110.090.1350.1694
KukharevychST730.470.1010.1923
MolotnikovMF280.000.0000.0103
GayleFW170.000.000−0.0100
McKirdyMF90.000.0000.0000
Moriah-WelshMF90.000.0100.0110

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
OxboroughGK900.000.0000.0221
McGinnCB900.000.0200.0864
GordonCB900.180.0000.02213
BalmerCB9010.000.1130.0459
O'DonnellRWB840.000.0000.0148
Zdravkovski CM460.000.0000.0225
MillerCM9010.060.0920.1556
HallidayCM8410.380.0400.0425
Wilson LWB900.000.0210.0447
StamatelopoulosST6210.110.000−0.0321
RobinsonST620.440.0100.0511
Sparrow MF440.070.0000.0032
EbiyeMF280.000.0100.0121
WattFW280.000.0000.0021
KaletaMF60.000.0000.0222
MaswanhiseFW60.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Bursik and O'Hora: 4 passesMiller and Campbell: 4 passesObita and Kukharevych: 4 passesKwon and Kukharevych: 4 passesCampbell and Hoilett: 4 passesBursik and Ekpiteta: 5 passesObita and Triantis: 5 passesObita and Kwon: 5 passesKwon and Cadden: 5 passesO'Hora and Kwon: 6 passesKwon and Campbell: 6 passesMiller and Kwon: 7 passesO'Hora and Campbell: 7 passesEkpiteta and Triantis: 7 passesEkpiteta and Kwon: 7 passesTriantis and Hoilett: 8 passesMiller and Triantis: 9 passesObita and Campbell: 9 passesMiller and Cadden: 15 passesMiller and Ekpiteta: 16 passesO'Hora and Ekpiteta: 18 passesObita and Hoilett: 25 passesO'Hora and Obita: 27 passesBursik: 11 completed passesMiller: 27 completed passesO'Hora: 36 completed passesEkpiteta: 30 completed passesObita: 46 completed passesTriantis: 22 completed passesKwon: 23 completed passesCadden: 11 completed passesCampbell: 19 completed passesHoilett: 20 completed passesKukharevych: 7 completed passes125421261812322399BursikMillerO'HoraEkpitetaObitaTriantisKwonCaddenCampbellHoilettKukharevychStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Motherwell

McGinn and Halliday: 3 passesBalmer and Zdravkovski: 3 passesO'Donnell and Stamatelopoulos: 3 passesMiller and Robinson: 3 passesHalliday and Stamatelopoulos: 3 passesHalliday and Robinson: 3 passesGordon and Miller: 4 passesMcGinn and Stamatelopoulos: 4 passesBalmer and Stamatelopoulos: 4 passesWilson and Zdravkovski: 4 passesWilson and Miller: 4 passesMcGinn and O'Donnell: 5 passesBalmer and Wilson: 5 passesBalmer and Miller: 5 passesO'Donnell and Miller: 5 passesGordon and McGinn: 6 passesMcGinn and Miller: 7 passesZdravkovski and Miller: 7 passesGordon and Balmer: 9 passesOxborough and Balmer: 11 passesOxborough: 13 completed passesGordon: 13 completed passesMcGinn: 15 completed passesBalmer: 21 completed passesO'Donnell: 9 completed passesWilson: 5 completed passesZdravkovski: 13 completed passesMiller: 20 completed passesHalliday: 7 completed passesStamatelopoulos: 7 completed passesRobinson: 4 completed passes13416522363811149OxboroughGordonMcGinnBalmerO'DonnellWilsonZdravkovskiMillerHallidayStamatelopoulosRobinsonStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
O'HoraObita21
EkpitetaO'Hora18
ObitaHoilett17
ObitaO'Hora16
EkpitetaMiller12

Motherwell

FromToPasses
OxboroughBalmer7
MillerMcGinn7
BalmerGordon6
McGinnO'Donnell6
BalmerMiller6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

2−3.70−5.822+8.75−2.57+2.88+0.740.07+1.07+0.36−0.83−2.04+0.36+2.78+4.03−2.21−3.55+1.32−1.21−2.05−0.32+0.32+0.84+3.31+0.24+2.02+1.30−0.32+0.70−0.50−0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Motherwell

2−1.36+1.229+14.86−3.011+7.37+1.870.05−2.34−2.27−3.21−3.73−1.23−0.54−0.711+4.20−4.74+0.80−2.20−3.54+0.32−1.02−0.31−0.22+0.81−1.20−0.70−0.70−0.50−0.30−0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.030.030.040.020.020.030.020.030.040.090.070.05−0.010.070.01−0.020.090.040.060.10−0.03−0.020.29LessMore

Motherwell

0.020.010.030.020.010.030.030.010.030.020.010.040.05−0.010.01−0.070.03−0.01−0.06−0.010.010.120.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.23 → 1.23Motherwell1.28 → 1.28Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.36 → 1.36Motherwell1.38 → 1.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six53%41%−12
11th5%7%+2
Bottom2%4%+2
Motherwell
Top six74%82%+8
11th2%1%−1
Bottom1%<1%−1

From the forecast before the match (5 October 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianMotherwell
Expected goals1.491.17
Win44%29%
Expected Points1.591.14
Clean sheet31%23%

Hibernian 44%Draw 27%Motherwell 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Motherwell goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%3%1%1%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 5 October 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawMotherwell win
Hibernian
Top six53%62%50%41%
11th5%2%5%7%
Bottom2%1%3%4%
Motherwell
Top six74%68%75%82%
11th2%3%2%1%
Bottom1%1%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–129 SepRangers (A)xG 2.16–1.78
  2. W2–014 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.61–0.25
  3. D1–11 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.44–2.54
  4. D2–224 AugDundee FC (H)xG 0.88–0.84
  5. L0–211 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.10–2.60
  6. L0–34 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.58–1.20

Motherwell

  1. W2–128 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.07–2.33
  2. L1–214 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.67–1.85
  3. W2–131 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.89–0.74
  4. W3–125 AugHearts (H)xG 2.54–0.62
  5. L1–210 AugRangers (A)xG 0.71–3.30
  6. D0–03 AugRoss County (H)xG 1.20–0.31

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianMotherwell
Position9th4th
Played66
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠2–⁠33–⁠1–⁠2
Points5 (0.83 per game)10 (1.67 per game)
Expected Points per game1.201.46
Goals5–⁠99–⁠7
xG per game1.13–⁠1.531.51–⁠1.53
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 0.86–⁠1.232.33, 1.94–⁠1.09
Away: points, xG per game0.33, 1.39–⁠1.841.00, 1.09–⁠1.96
ManagerDavid Gray (8)Stuart Kettlewell (58)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.23, 6thMotherwell1.28, 5thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.36, 5thMotherwell1.38, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepHibernian attack: 1.23Motherwell attack: 1.281.281.23MotherwellHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepHibernian defence: 1.36Motherwell defence: 1.381.381.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−36%−3%+17%+26%
Counter-attacks−67%+150%−80%−33%
Set pieces+37%−2%+31%−5%
Penalties−10%−10%−10%−10%
Headers−54%+11%+111%+28%
Left side−35%−3%−39%+36%
Centre−21%+22%+52%+13%
Right side−3%+7%−28%−18%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdMotherwell concededLeft side−35%−18%Centre−21%+13%Right side−3%+36%Open play−36%+26%Counter-attacks−67%−33%Set pieces+37%−5%Headers−54%+28%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHibernian concededLeft side−39%+7%Centre+52%+22%Right side−28%−3%Open play+17%−3%Counter-attacks−80%+150%Set pieces+31%−2%Headers+111%+11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianMotherwell

1.13xG1.51
1.53xG against1.53
44%Possession38%
12.5Shots11.5
12.5Shots against12.3
2.7Shots on target4.0
1.2Big chances2.2
22.0Touches in the opposition box22.5
312Passes303
70%Pass accuracy69%
5.8Corners8.0
48%Field tilt36%
29.7Final-third entries23.8
7.8Box entries8.3
15.0Passes per defensive action19.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.021.38
Ahead171.061.58
Behind371.271.66

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.521.45
Ahead281.131.61
Behind241.931.57

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.400–2
16–300.080.130–1
31–450.350.062–1
46–600.130.191–1
61–750.310.232–0
76–900.130.520–4

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.421–2
16–300.460.173–2
31–450.100.211–0
46–600.190.291–0
61–750.170.130–2
76–900.390.303–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBursik 6Miller 5Cadden 1Ekpiteta 6O'Hora 6Obita 6Kwon 4Campbell 1Moriah-Welsh 1Newell 4Triantis 2Boyle 4Cadden 1Youan 1Molotnikov 2Campbell 1Triantis 1Molotnikov 3N. Cadden 2Hoilett 1Kukharevych 4Campbell 1Vente 14-2-3-1 in 4 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-4-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTOxborough 6McGinn 5Gordon 6Casey 6Blaney 1O'Donnell 6Zdravkovski 5Halliday 6Seddon 1Wilson 5Miller 1Miller 5Zdravkovski 1Maswanhise 3Ebiye 2Wilson 1Robinson 5Stamatelopoulos 13-4-2-1 in 4 of 6 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 May 2024Hibernian3–0MotherwellxG 1.34–0.85
13 April 2024Motherwell1–1HibernianxG 0.97–1.51
2 January 2024Hibernian2–2MotherwellxG 0.72–1.55
13 August 2023Motherwell2–1HibernianxG 0.60–0.86
1 April 2023Hibernian1–3MotherwellxG 0.90–1.79
8 January 2023Motherwell2–3HibernianxG 1.64–1.73

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 5, Motherwell won 3, and 5 were drawn. Goals 19–15 and xG 1.32–1.10 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obita6540000.000.11
Ekpiteta6540000.070.02
O'Hora6540000.030.04
Bursik6540000.000.00

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller6523220.340.28
O'Donnell6489100.060.18
Casey6497110.220.00
Wilson6540000.030.19

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.