Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Ross County 3–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 28 January 2023, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 23 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 3,794

Ross County Brophy 13', White 48', Dhanda 63'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyKilmarnock
Goals30
xG1.741.38
Expected Points1.661.05

Ross County 45%Draw 30%Kilmarnock 25%

Most likely score 2–1, 16%. Final score 3–0, 3%.

Kilmarnock goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+2%4%2%6%9%3%7%4%3%7%5%2%1%15%16%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTTillson on for Dhanda and Samuel on for Brophy, 65'Cancola on for Callachan, 76'Stones on for White and Loturi on for Kenneh, 83'Doidge on for Robinson and Donnelly on for Power, 60'Alebiosu on for Waters and Lafferty on for Polworth, 76'Brophy 13'White 48'Dhanda 63'Ross County 1.74Kilmarnock 1.3800.511.520153045607590HTTillson on for Dhanda and Samuel on for Brophy, 65'Cancola on for Callachan, 76'Stones on for White and Loturi on for Kenneh, 83'Doidge on for Robinson and Donnelly on for Power, 60'Alebiosu on for Waters and Lafferty on for Polworth, 76'Brophy 13'White 48'Dhanda 63'1.741.38Ross CountyKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyKilmarnock

1.74 +1.00xG1.38 +0.52
2.19 +1.46xG on target0.34 −0.27
10 +2.2Shots18 +7.3
5 +2.8Shots on target3 +0.1
3 +2.0Big chances2 +0.8
18 +3Touches in the opposition box17 −1
43% 0Possession57% +12
269 −56Passes331 −4
53% −12Pass accuracy61% −5
57% +19Field tilt43% −1
27 −3Final-third entries44 +10
9 +1.9Box entries10 +1.4
11.2 −4Passes per defensive action10.8 −4
0 −3.0Corners5 +0.8
6 −11Tackles7 −9
9 −0.9Interceptions11 −0.5
30 +8Clearances9 −10
2 −1.5Saves2 −1.1
19 +7Fouls12 −1
2 −0.1Offsides0 −1.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Harmon 77', 0.19 xGBrophy 47', 0.11 xGCallachan 24', 0.08 xGBrophy 10', 0.04 xGHarmon 22', 0.04 xGHarmon 18', 0.03 xGTillson 73', 0.03 xGWhite 48', 0.62 xG, goalBrophy 13', 0.59 xG, goalDhanda 63', 0.02 xG, goal70%1.21 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.21 xG, 2 goals21%0.37 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.37 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals8%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 1 goal

Kilmarnock

Robinson 42', 0.61 xGTaylor 39', 0.17 xGRobinson 29', 0.09 xGTaylor 42', 0.07 xGDoidge 90+1', 0.07 xGPolworth 42', 0.05 xGMayo 80', 0.05 xGVassell 60', 0.04 xGWaters 44', 0.03 xGVassell 56', 0.03 xGVassell 60', 0.03 xGJones 85', 0.03 xGVassell 27', 0.02 xGJones 38', 0.02 xGPolworth 75', 0.02 xGMayo 75', 0.02 xGTaylor 60', 0.01 xGVassell 90', 0.01 xG44%0.61 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.61 xG, 0 goals38%0.53 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.53 xG, 0 goals4%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals8%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals5%0.07 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyKilmarnock

1.07 8 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.28 7 shots, 0 goals
0.59 1 shot, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.08 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces1.10 11 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
13 min (14%) · Ross County 0.62, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Ross County ahead
78 min (86%) · Ross County 1.12, Kilmarnock 1.38 xG

Line-ups

11556284216102726LaidlawWatsonBaldwinIacovittiRandallCallachanKennehHarmonDhandaBrophyWhiteYellow cardGoalGoalGoal76'83'65'65'83'Ross County 3-4-1-2Malky Mackay12519181031471623HemmingMayoTaylorWrightWatersJonesPolworthPowerMcKenzieRobinsonVassellYellow card76'76'60'60'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

Ross County substitutes

  • 65' Tillson for Dhanda
  • 65' Samuel for Brophy
  • 76' Cancola for Callachan
  • 83' Loturi for Kenneh
  • 83' Stones for White

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 60' Donnelly for Power
  • 60' Doidge for Robinson
  • 76' Alebiosu for Waters
  • 76' Lafferty for Polworth

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0440
WatsonCB900.000.0000.0337
BaldwinCB900.000.0100.0358
IacovittiCB900.000.0500.06311
RandallRWB900.000.0100.0134
Callachan CM7610.080.8010.3863
KennehCM8320.000.0220.0465
HarmonLWB900.260.0210.0445
DhandaAM6510.020.0310.0533
BrophyST6510.730.0300.0400
WhiteST8310.620.1620.1900
TillsonMF250.030.0000.0001
SamuelFW250.000.4610.1600
CancolaMF140.000.0000.0001
LoturiMF70.000.0000.0001
StonesFW70.000.0000.0002

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0110
MayoRB900.070.1310.2672
TaylorCB900.250.0200.0254
WrightCB900.000.0000.0224
WatersLB760.030.0100.0964
JonesRM900.050.4430.1931
PolworthCM760.070.0630.2061
PowerCM600.000.0320.0106
McKenzieLM900.000.1320.0950
RobinsonST600.700.000−0.0200
Vassell ST900.140.0100.0500
DonnellyMF300.000.0010.0324
DoidgeFW300.070.0000.0010
AlebiosuMF140.000.0000.0101
LaffertyFW140.000.0410.0500

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Laidlaw and White: 3 passesBaldwin and Iacovitti: 3 passesWatson and Callachan: 3 passesKenneh and White: 3 passesCallachan and Dhanda: 3 passesCallachan and Brophy: 3 passesHarmon and Dhanda: 3 passesHarmon and Brophy: 3 passesDhanda and White: 3 passesLaidlaw and Watson: 4 passesBaldwin and Kenneh: 4 passesWatson and Randall: 4 passesWatson and Dhanda: 4 passesBrophy and White: 4 passesBaldwin and White: 5 passesRandall and Kenneh: 5 passesKenneh and Dhanda: 5 passesBaldwin and Dhanda: 6 passesRandall and Callachan: 6 passesRandall and Dhanda: 6 passesRandall and White: 7 passesLaidlaw: 6 completed passesBaldwin: 15 completed passesIacovitti: 4 completed passesWatson: 10 completed passesRandall: 16 completed passesKenneh: 14 completed passesCallachan: 13 completed passesHarmon: 5 completed passesDhanda: 15 completed passesBrophy: 5 completed passesWhite: 13 completed passes15615242816102726LaidlawBaldwinIacovittiWatsonRandallKennehCallachanHarmonDhandaBrophyWhiteStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Mayo and Taylor: 3 passesMayo and McKenzie: 3 passesJones and Power: 3 passesJones and Polworth: 3 passesPower and Polworth: 3 passesPower and McKenzie: 3 passesPower and Vassell: 3 passesHemming and Mayo: 4 passesWright and Taylor: 4 passesTaylor and Waters: 4 passesJones and Vassell: 4 passesPolworth and Vassell: 4 passesTaylor and Power: 5 passesWaters and Polworth: 5 passesWaters and Power: 6 passesWaters and McKenzie: 6 passesPolworth and McKenzie: 6 passesMayo and Robinson: 7 passesWright and Waters: 7 passesWaters and Vassell: 7 passesMayo and Jones: 10 passesMayo and Power: 10 passesMayo and Polworth: 12 passesHemming: 7 completed passesMayo: 28 completed passesWright: 15 completed passesTaylor: 13 completed passesWaters: 13 completed passesJones: 7 completed passesPower: 21 completed passesPolworth: 22 completed passesMcKenzie: 13 completed passesRobinson: 3 completed passesVassell: 8 completed passes12195181043171623HemmingMayoWrightTaylorWatersJonesPowerPolworthMcKenzieRobinsonVassellStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
WhiteRandall8
RandallWhite7
BaldwinWhite5
BaldwinDhanda5
RandallDhanda4

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PolworthMayo10
WatersVassell7
MayoPower7
MayoRobinson7
MayoJones6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

1−4.98−0.417+1.016+8.410+3.94−3.55−2.44−2.64−3.88+0.63−2.53−1.12−1.54−0.96+2.03−1.24+0.32−0.53−0.140.00−2.72+0.20−0.63+1.54+2.01+0.31+0.61+0.41+0.70−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Kilmarnock

4−1.33−4.01−4.15−2.54−2.95−1.03−3.810+2.610+3.55−0.52−1.92−3.63−2.04−1.01−3.20−2.33−1.02−1.91−1.41−0.70−0.72+0.11−1.80−1.60−0.83+2.60−0.50−0.70−7.27−5.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.030.010.010.010.020.020.010.010.010.020.020.040.040.030.02−0.030.170.040.030.040.17−0.060.14−0.010.26LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.030.030.010.040.010.020.010.01−0.010.040.030.130.060.060.060.110.15−0.04−0.050.020.26LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackRoss County0.88 → 0.91Kilmarnock0.97 → 0.96Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.49 → 1.47Kilmarnock1.35 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six<1%1%+1
11th21%26%+5
Bottom62%47%−15
Kilmarnock
Top six3%1%−2
11th27%28%+1
Bottom17%29%+12
Dundee United
Top six5%6%+1
11th22%18%−4
Bottom11%12%+1
St. Johnstone
Top six14%14%0
11th10%8%−2
Bottom3%3%0

From the forecast before the match (28 January 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyKilmarnock
Expected goals1.161.05
Win37%32%
Expected Points1.431.27
Clean sheet35%31%

Ross County 37%Draw 30%Kilmarnock 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 45%.

Kilmarnock goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+6%2%7%2%7%8%4%1%3%3%2%12%11%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 January 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawKilmarnock win
Ross County
Top six<1%1%<1%–
11th21%26%20%15%
Bottom62%47%65%76%
Kilmarnock
Top six3%1%2%5%
11th27%28%30%23%
Bottom17%29%14%6%
Dundee United
Top six5%6%5%5%
11th22%18%21%28%
Bottom11%12%11%9%
St. Johnstone
Top six14%14%14%14%
11th10%8%9%13%
Bottom3%3%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. D1–114 JanMotherwell (A)xG 1.23–0.82
  2. L0–27 JanLivingston (H)xG 0.86–0.90
  3. D0–02 JanAberdeen (A)xG 0.44–2.08
  4. L0–328 DecDundee United (A)xG 0.98–0.85
  5. L0–123 DecRangers (H)xG 0.38–2.13
  6. L1–217 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.42–2.31

Kilmarnock

  1. L2–318 JanRangers (H)xG 0.79–1.49
  2. L0–27 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.08–3.48
  3. D0–02 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.70–0.35
  4. W2–128 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.91–0.42
  5. D2–223 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.34–1.33
  6. L1–317 DecHearts (A)xG 1.09–2.40

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyKilmarnock
Position12th11th
Played2222
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠5–⁠135–⁠5–⁠12
Points17 (0.77 per game)20 (0.91 per game)
Expected Points per game0.921.12
Goals15–⁠3519–⁠38
xG per game0.74–⁠1.430.86–⁠1.28
Home: points, xG per game0.73, 0.74–⁠1.431.64, 1.17–⁠1.09
Away: points, xG per game0.82, 0.74–⁠1.420.18, 0.54–⁠1.47
ManagerMalky Mackay (60)Derek McInnes (22)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackRoss County0.88, 12thKilmarnock0.97, 10thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.49, 12thKilmarnock1.35, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanRoss County attack: 0.88Kilmarnock attack: 0.970.970.88KilmarnockRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanRoss County defence: 1.49Kilmarnock defence: 1.351.491.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−43%+26%−41%−4%
Counter-attacks−15%+137%−54%−54%
Set pieces−30%−10%+11%+28%
Penalties−77%−77%−77%−32%
Headers−27%+2%+17%−12%
Left side−34%+13%−15%−3%
Centre−35%+23%−38%−3%
Right side−49%+26%−28%+16%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−34%+16%Centre−35%−3%Right side−49%−3%Open play−43%−4%Counter-attacks−15%−54%Set pieces−30%+28%Headers−27%−12%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRoss County concededLeft side−15%+26%Centre−38%+23%Right side−28%+13%Open play−41%+26%Counter-attacks−54%+137%Set pieces+11%−10%Headers+17%+2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyKilmarnock

0.74xG0.86
1.43xG against1.28
44%Possession44%
7.8Shots10.7
16.5Shots against12.9
2.2Shots on target2.9
1.0Big chances1.2
14.6Touches in the opposition box17.9
325Passes335
65%Pass accuracy66%
3.0Corners4.2
37%Field tilt44%
29.6Final-third entries34.0
7.1Box entries8.6
15.2Passes per defensive action15.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level530.751.33
Ahead90.302.14
Behind280.871.39

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.030.96
Ahead170.841.21
Behind380.691.61

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.172–3
16–300.120.191–4
31–450.130.232–3
46–600.130.314–8
61–750.120.221–7
76–900.150.305–10

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.143–5
16–300.140.232–9
31–450.160.233–6
46–600.250.134–4
61–750.090.204–6
76–900.110.343–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTLaidlaw 22Johnson 14Randall 6Watson 2Baldwin 15Watson 6Randall 1Iacovitti 22Harmon 11Purrington 11Tillson 11Callachan 7Loturi 7Cancola 16Paton 2Dhanda 1Edwards 8Hiwula-Mayifuila 4Tillson 2Callachan 8Dhanda 6Tillson 4Edwards 6Olaigbe 4Dhanda 3White 15Hiwula-Mayifuila 5Dhanda 14-2-3-1 in 21 of 22 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (21), 5-3-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 13Hemming 9Alebiosu 10Mayo 8Armstrong 2Taylor 15Wright 13Mayo 8Stokes 5Chrisene 7McInroy 6Polworth 2Armstrong 8McKenzie 5Chrisene 3Polworth 7Armstrong 4Alston 4Power 18Donnelly 7Alebiosu 1McKenzie 6Jones 6Taylor 3Lafferty 8Cameron 5Armstrong 2Doidge 7Shaw 5Wright 34-4-2 in 5 of 22 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
22 October 2022Kilmarnock1–0Ross CountyxG 1.10–0.70
20 August 2022Ross County1–0KilmarnockxG 0.65–0.70
10 April 2021Kilmarnock2–2Ross CountyxG 0.69–1.07
6 March 2021Ross County3–2KilmarnockxG 1.21–1.67
21 November 2020Kilmarnock3–1Ross CountyxG 2.12–1.87
12 August 2020Ross County2–2KilmarnockxG 2.02–1.06

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 2, Kilmarnock won 2, and 2 were drawn. Goals 9–10 and xG 1.25–1.22 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
White171,544410.220.05
Edwards151,354220.130.08
Dhanda121,098030.040.15
Harmon121,078210.050.13

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong161,468540.200.21
Shaw7628000.250.02
Jones9704000.100.12
Stokes7626200.190.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.